I would presume this clears the path for Pakistan to legally incorporate the so called AJK & Northern Areas into Pakistan - a long standing demand of China as legal cover for their projects vide CPEC in those areas apart from the rest of Pakistan.
However, this doesn't preclude them from extending "moral and diplomatic support for the struggle in Kashmir. " This will not include approaching the IJC as their legal stand will be exposed. One can expect renewed moves in the UN and of course their home base OIC.
The PA is truly on the horns of a dilemma. They lack the financial wherewithal to pursue hard options. They have the FATF looming over the horizon, wherein one suspects Trump would have struck a deal to bail them out subject to them getting the Taliban to acquiesce to the US proposals. From present indications, that seems to be on track.
What that means for Afghanistan is anyone's guess. I suspect a prolonged civil war unlike when the PA in mufti teamed up with the Taliban to sweep Afghanistan. The Afghans having tasted independence would definitely not want to surrender their liberties to the whim of the Taliban again, the current weakened GoA capitulating to US pressure, notwithstanding. With the US out and China licking its lips in anticipation, how long will the Iranians or even the Russians countenance the Taliban in their backyard. Should India initiate talks with the GoA promising them material support and money to ensure that a western Front is always ever present for the PA denying them "strategic depth ?"
These are the external dimensions.
The internal dimensions too would have to be examined. The BJP has well and truly turned this move into a touchstone for nationalism & will milk it dry for the forthcoming state elections in the half a dozen states due for such polls. And if early indications are anything to go by the Congress has already failed the test.Just another piece of evidence as to how divorced the GOP is from the voice of the people. The other parties too are on the horns of a dilemma. Does opposition to these articles construe that once these same constituents come to power, they'd be willing to revert to the status quo? That would break the consensus on an issue of paramount national salience. Something which bodes ill for any democracy leave aside a messy one like ours.
Further , What's the message we'd be sending out to the Nagas, who're clamouring for a similar arrangement? I'm sure Modi was astute enough to know this. After all abrogation of these articles may seem like a sudden development but it may have been in the making since the past few years. That explains why he's gone in for an accord with the Nagas a year back.But we aren't on board with the contents of that accord - the contours of which are unknown to the rest of the nation. Assuming it was somewhat on the lines of how we conferred special status to Kashmir, Do the Nagas expect us to live up to our commitments in the light of this development?
Finally, to all those who support this move & to those who oppose it - does this mean all those who support it will now move with their families lock stock & barrel to Kashmir. Do we expect Big Business to move in overnight? Let's not forget that big business is scared of civilian protests like bandhs & hartals leave aside an armed insurgency.
For those opposing this move, do you read history? Where in history has one ever come across pacification of a recalcitrant province or people in a peaceful manner without coercion, displacement or a spilling of blood if it takes on armed contours? How long would the status quo continue especially if it had reached a stalemate and the solutions touted Has a ring of deja vu all around it? Has all that nonsense of a non violent freedom struggle with the apostle of ahimsa being the commander in chief and delivering independence gotten into your blood stream to the extent that you can't tell tactics from strategy? Does one let a rebellious population of 4 million ( half of the valley's population of around 8 million) dictate terms to a Republic of 1.3 billion. Since when does the tail wag the dog and for how long?
A new front has just been opened in a war as old as our independence, perhaps older, if all the arguments for and against the accesion of J&K to India were to be examined. We are a long way from a declaration of victory.
