LCA Tejas Mk1 & Mk1A - News and discussions
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27 are with IAF. 1 was leant back for some testings. 2 were to be delivered by last month. If it happened, then 28.
May be it does but still its capabilities are way below SPORT. USAF believes in current form it is not adequate.
Moreover, it is not offered to Egypt as yet. Local production offer and capabilities of SPORT can make it a winning bid.
T-X: The Sequel? New Tactical Trainer Solicitation Could Reignite Rivalries - Breaking Defense
“Every day, [the T-38] becomes just another step more disconnected from the advanced avionics, advanced sensing, the advanced processing that our modern fighters have. And so we can't fill that void fast enough,” said Air Combat Command head Gen. Mark Kelly.breakingdefense.com
That's the issue. SPORT can be over-spec'd for LIFT requirements. Cheaper trainers like the Texan and T-50 will be enough to meet requirements of pretty much all air forces that need supersonic trainers. Even the article is trying to explain the Texan could be over-spec'd.
When it comes to countries with Western tilt, the first choice will always be Western. So Boeing Texan and LM-supported T-50 will be frontrunners in such countries.
As for offers, a lot of competitors can offer production. Egypt isn't dumb enough to ask for it just from one vendor. There are multiple OEMs involved in the program to replace their K-8s. So the question is do they want a potentially over-spec'd trainer or are they fine with trainers in the Hawk class. A bigger selling point would be to push for the LCA as an F-16 replacement so production can transition from LIFT to Mk2 in sequence.
There's also a very high possibility for the US to prevent LCA exports to Western-tilt nations, like how MBDA was prevented from selling SCALP to Egypt until American components were replaced. It's not gonna be easy for India to replace the engine.
I don't have much hopes for LCA in the Western sphere of influence.
I feel it would be a natural offer that the production line in Egypt will first produce SPORT for LIFT requirement and then mk2 to replace F-16 coz it wont be beneficial to establish and then put the production idle only after 70 aircraft. If any presentations have been made to Egypt surely such an offer would be made. Besides since production of choppers have also been offered so India has basically offered an aerospace ecosystem to Egypt which is a lucarative offer.
Due to the recent export deal of Brahmos, which was recommended to Phillipines by US think tank, I feel may be US is willing for Indian products to be exported to countries under western influence.
Oh, yeah, the best deal for Egypt is what HAL is offering them. No one else in the West can singularly match it. And not only LCA, but we can provide maintenance and support for both Russian and French jets too. Egypt won't get a better deal elsewhere.
But with Egypt buying so many, its neighbours will also want to keep up. Like Israel may ask for its own version, an LCA Mk3, with its own avionics around a new engine, like the one being developed for AMCA, to replace their large fleet of F-16s. Even Israel desires to produce fighter jets, which the Americans have prevented from happening. Then UAE and Saudi will enter the race etc. All traditional Western markets. All these markets could open up to AMCA too. The Egypt deal has the potential to create a domino effect which could upset the Americans, so it's unlikely the US will allow anything like that to happen.
Brahmos+LCA to Philippines or other small deals like Malaysia won't be a problem to the Americans. But developing local capabilities through license production in triple digit numbers will be a big no-no. They will do their best to stop such deals from happening. And India doesn't yet have the political or financial muscle to push back.
I'll be really surprised if the Americans allow re-export of their engines for license production.
Your assertion is right and makes a lot of sense. After giving it a thought I find that the only way out may be when Egypt conveys to US that it will order piecemeal orders from US to keep it happy (like F-35 in future) but for bulk orders US platforms are expensive and without production line offers which may force it to purchase either Chinese or Russian platforms. May be then US will allow it to get Indian platforms to counter chinese or russian sales.
It's much more likely the US will allow piecemeal Indian exports to Egypt, like a deal for 70 SPORT supplied straight from India, while getting them to buy a new F-16 replacement jet the USAF plans to make after 2030.
Otoh, they can't do much to stop ALH and LCH sales to Egypt. So we can make a breakthrough there.
To be honest I hope we get license for the item 30 and produce both su-57 and su-75's in India. And I hope we can use the item 30 for a 4 engined bomber.
With that our top end is covered and replaces older su-30 and upgrade the rest to missile carrier.
Our medium end can be handled by amca MWF and Rafale
Our low end can be handled by tejas mk1a/b/c and mig21/mig 23 drones as support.
The need for Su-57 is gone. For jets powered by turbofans, Rafale will be the IAF's last major import. If anything is still imported after 2030, it's only going to be stopgap. But I feel even that's unlikely to happen. This ToT circus will end with Rafale.
It is entirely possible. But given how the cost of F-35 is reducing and investment requirements of NGAD, I dont think US is going to find any new 4.5 gen jet feasible. LM lobby will Anyway, US may want to sell fresh blocks of F-16 to Egypt.
Yes, even if we get ALH & LCH sales to Egypt it will be great of our industry and we will also get an opening in African market also. Though we still need to keep fighting for SPORT deal.
Look at the existing inventory of Egyptians and the existing official talks already going on. And keep in mind any Egyptian buy will be decided by Saudia+ UAE.
It's like Pakistanis discussing that 20 nations are going to buy JF17. I hope people don't go flying in hopes and discuss only real possibilities.
It's like Pakistanis discussing that 20 nations are going to buy JF17. I hope people don't go flying in hopes and discuss only real possibilities.
Pretty much. To me, the only realistic contender for license production is Vietnam.
Kfir with just 10 year warranty by IAI is taken seriously by nations over LCA. It has happened in atleast 3 countries(Srilanka, Columbia and Argentina)
The only thing we can do on our part is to we buy more and fly them more. Once they see, things will start to change.
Kfir isn't of any deterrence value against China. Plus Israel also doesn't operate it anymore. So countries interested in it are small air forces with no real enemies. The cheapest jet available for anti-China forces is the LCA family.
Problem is whoever can afford a new plane is either courted politically by Italy (for its M345/M346) or SK/US combo for FA50 family. Outside Russian Yak130 and Chinese JF17 or JL9 exports, I would actually be surprised if we succeed in finding a market soon.
But LCA MK2 is going to be very very lucky if it keeps its timeline. F16s, Gripen C/D, Eurofighter Tranche 1, Mig29 , Su27s, Su25s....all will be retiring across the globe from 2027-28. An excellent opportunity for us.
Immediate markets are only Malaysia and Argentina for the LCA Mk1A. Perhaps Philippines. About 40-50 jets in all.
Bigger markets need Mk2.
We can actively start marketing the Mk2 as soon as the first prototype starts flying. And the first two jets should enter production 2 years after first flight, with delivery a year later.
The F-16 replacement is planned for around the time F-35 deliveries for the USAF winds down.
In any case the US defence budget is set to rise by then.