Macron wants strategic Paris-Delhi-Canberra axis amid Pacific tension

[_Anonymous_]

They highlighted it a while back mate.

Sino-Soviet border conflict - Wikipedia

China has easier pickings without annoying their closest ally.

All this is well known. You're not getting my point. Please check for areas in Manchuria under Qing rule. It's an unspoken tenet of the CCP to claim all areas under the Qing rule. That includes Port Arthur and other areas lost under Qing rule to the Russians. Add to that a lot of Chinese immigrants in the Russian far East, outnumbering the Russians and you can sense Russian unease .

There is mutual mistrust between the Chinese & Russians.They aren't natural allies. What brings them together is a certain anti Americanism which in the case of the Chinese is inevitable given their spectacular rise and belief in their manifest destiny of being the premier power in the world. The Russians are hampered more by a Cold War mindset among a significant section of the US politicians plus a weakened economy making them dependant on the Chinese.

I'm waiting for a Kissinger moment to right the relationship with Russia. It would have happened under Trump except that he's too compromised by his dealings with the Russians to attempt something like that. Perhaps in the near future.

 

[randomradio]

The Russians have no geopolitical or economic alternatives.

Of course they do. Europe, Japan and a little later Southeast Asia and then India too.

India is planning on building both oil and gas pipelines from Russia. The gas pipeline in particular will be big business.

 

[randomradio]

The strategic community in Delhi seems to distrust the Australians...from what's the prevailing mindset, it's viewed as though the Australians have been extensively penetrated at all levels of government by the Chinese. Almost to the level of, if not more than, the Soviet penetration of Indian power structures during the Cold War.

No, the Australians are fine. The Chinese have significant economic hold over Australia, which will change very soon with SE Asia and India absorbing their exports at a later date.

 

[randomradio]

It's a risk vs reward thing. Taking Siberia is a direct invasion of Russian territory and lands China in a war with Russia and likely gets it nuked, as well as losing it a major ally, which it would need in any Taiwan or North Korea scenario. The others it can maybe get without a nuclear war or losing allies. Simple maths.

The only major common ground the Chinese and Russians have is dealing with NATO. Once the Chinese feel they can take on NATO, they are going to start pressuring the Russians at the border.

 

[BMD]

All this is well known. You're not getting my point. Please check for areas in Manchuria under Qing rule. It's an unspoken tenet of the CCP to claim all areas under the Qing rule. That includes Port Arthur and other areas lost under Qing rule to the Russians. Add to that a lot of Chinese immigrants in the Russian far East, outnumbering the Russians and you can sense Russian unease .

There is mutual mistrust between the Chinese & Russians.They aren't natural allies. What brings them together is a certain anti Americanism which in the case of the Chinese is inevitable given their spectacular rise and belief in their manifest destiny of being the premier power in the world. The Russians are hampered more by a Cold War mindset among a significant section of the US politicians plus a weakened economy making them dependant on the Chinese.

I'm waiting for a Kissinger moment to right the relationship with Russia. It would have happened under Trump except that he's too compromised by his dealings with the Russians to attempt something like that. Perhaps in the near future.

Not really. Russia has nearly 2,000 operational nuclear warheads, a direct assault on Russian sovereign territory would not gain Manchuria, it would just lose mainland China. Russia also has the world's largest land army in terms of artillery and tanks. On the other hand if China went for Taiwan, it may well have Russia on its side and the US would likely be obliged to try counter it conventionally.

The US is geopolitically at odds with Russia in nearly every theatre, whether it's Syria, Libya, Ukraine, Venezuela, Balkans, Baltics or Georgia. What you're saying doesn't make a shred of sense.

 

[BMD]

Of course they do. Europe, Japan and a little later Southeast Asia and then India too.

India is planning on building both oil and gas pipelines from Russia. The gas pipeline in particular will be big business.

Expecting former Eastern Bloc countries to ally up with Russia again is ludicrous. Germans are unlikely to be keen on it either, given the Berlin Wall, and Russian antics in the Ukraine, the Balkans, and the Baltics. The oil and gas pipeline in purely finance-related, it has nothing to do with prospective future allegiances. Right now the EU still has sanctions on Russia.

For you it will, but they will always back China given the choice, because China is bigger business for them.

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Russia’s Huge Natural Gas Pipeline To China Nearly Complete | OilPrice.com

 

[randomradio]

Expecting former Eastern Bloc countries to ally up with Russia again is ludicrous. Germans are unlikely to be keen on it either, given the Berlin Wall, and Russian antics in the Ukraine, the Balkans, and the Baltics. The oil and gas pipeline in purely finance-related, it has nothing to do with prospective future allegiances. Right now the EU still has sanctions on Russia.

The EEU is enough for the Russians.

For you it will, but they will always back China given the choice, because China is bigger business for them.

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Russia’s Huge Natural Gas Pipeline To China Nearly Complete | OilPrice.com

You have to look more long term than that.

China and Russia have too many territorial problems.

 

[BMD]

The only major common ground the Chinese and Russians have is dealing with NATO. Once the Chinese feel they can take on NATO, they are going to start pressuring the Russians at the border.

You're talking garbage. The US and NATO has always avoided direct confrontation with Russia even around its borders, to suggest that China will actually cross those borders is insane. It's just not a strategy at all. Annoy Russia, India, the US and NATO at the same time? What happened to the last idiot managing a superpower who tried that?

 

[BMD]

The EEU is enough for the Russians.



You have to look more long term than that.

China and Russia have too many territorial problems.

Now you're confusing things. You said Europe was a potential geopolitical ally. The EEU is just Russia plus a few beggar states left over from the USSR. They have wider designs on the Baltics.

Lithuania mulling over sanctions against Russia for aggression in Black Sea
Lithuania fears Russian propaganda is prelude to eventual invasion

Yeah but neither of them is going to touch any of them with a barge pole as each has too much to lose. They're just natural allies. It was the Soviets who backed Mao Zedong in the first place.

The question is, who will China have left as a friend if it annoys Russia? The fat guy in the DPRK and that's about it. But that's like a person claiming a mosquito as an ally.

 

[randomradio]

Now you're confusing things. You said Europe was a potential geopolitical ally. The EEU is just Russia plus a few beggar states left over from the USSR. They have wider designs on the Baltics.

Lithuania mulling over sanctions against Russia for aggression in Black Sea
Lithuania fears Russian propaganda is prelude to eventual invasion

You were talking about "alliance", so that's why I brought in the EEU.

You don't need a formal alliance to work out something with other states. For example, if the Russians face any problem with China, you can expect the EU and US to help out Russia.

Yeah but neither of them is going to touch any of them with a barge pole as each has too much to lose. They're just natural allies. It was the Soviets who backed Mao Zedong in the first place.

They are the exact opposite of natural allies. They are allies of circumstances right now.

The question is, who will China have left as a friend if it annoys Russia? The fat guy in the DPRK and that's about it. But that's like a person claiming a mosquito as an ally.

China will create friends elsewhere in the world. There's obviously Pakistan. There's SE Asia (Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar), Africa (Angola) and S America (Venezuela). As China gets bigger and richer, some countries will gravitate towards it. Particularly the ones who have differences with the West.

 

[BMD]

You were talking about "alliance", so that's why I brought in the EEU.

You don't need a formal alliance to work out something with other states. For example, if the Russians face any problem with China, you can expect the EU and US to help out Russia.

The relationship between the EU and Russia will be essential commodities only, the EU has no great motivation for helping Russia's resurgence. If China invaded Russia, apart from the flying pigs, I doubt the US and EU would do anything other than condemn it and sanction China. Other than that, there's nothing more appealing than seeing your two largest opponents killing each other. This is exactly why it would be crazy for China to break their alliance with Russia.

They are the exact opposite of natural allies. They are allies of circumstances right now.

They are cut from the same cloth, they have always backed each other. You're deluding yourself if you believe otherwise. It's too risky for China to break ties with Russia because it would have no significant friends left. It's certainly not going to aim for Russia before it's done with Taiwan and disputed territories in India. So you must at least agree that those are the current targets and that invading Russia is a pipe dream.

China will create friends elsewhere in the world. There's obviously Pakistan. There's SE Asia (Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar), Africa (Angola) and S America (Venezuela). As China gets bigger and richer, some countries will gravitate towards it. Particularly the ones who have differences with the West.

Pakistan is a worthless friend. Pakistan will be their friend whilst supporting the Uyghurs behind their back. China's only friends in S. America are Venezuela, Ecuador and Cuba and they are of no help in a Pacific regional conflict, ditto for Africa. The others you mention are debatable.

The countries that have problems with the West are generally the unstable dictatorship types, which are not very reliable as allies. Red and red will always ally. Russia, DPRK and China. You're kidding yourself if you consider otherwise. As far as I'm aware China and Russia also signed a Treaty in 2005 over disputed territories. China has too many designs over other places that it can more easily aggress upon without annoying Russia, like Taiwan, India and The South China Sea. Russia will not choose India over China. The US and NATO and Pacific allies on the other hand have no choice but to ally with India, because they have issues with China over North Korea, the SCS, Japanese islands and Chinese loans for oil fraud schemes and many other issues.

 

[randomradio]

The relationship between the EU and Russia will be essential commodities only, the EU has no great motivation for helping Russia's resurgence. If China invaded Russia, apart from the flying pigs, I doubt the US and EU would do anything other than condemn it and sanction China. Other than that, there's nothing more appealing than seeing your two largest opponents killing each other. This is exactly why it would be crazy for China to break their alliance with Russia.

Great. So Germany will stop importing Russian oil and gas then.

They are cut from the same cloth, they have always backed each other. You're deluding yourself if you believe otherwise. It's too risky for China to break ties with Russia because it would have no significant friends left. It's certainly not going to aim for Russia before it's done with Taiwan and disputed territories in India. So you must at least agree that those are the current targets and that invading Russia is a pipe dream.

In 15 years, the Chinese will have more friends than today.

Pakistan is a worthless friend. Pakistan will be their friend whilst supporting the Uyghurs behind their back. China's only friends in S. America are Venezuela, Ecuador and Cuba and they are of no help in a Pacific regional conflict, ditto for Africa. The others you mention are debatable.

They may not need military allies. You forget that China is US+EU combined in terms of population and still falls short by 40%.

The countries that have problems with the West are generally the unstable dictatorship types, which are not very reliable as allies. Red and red will always ally. Russia, DPRK and China. You're kidding yourself if you consider otherwise. As far as I'm aware China and Russia also signed a Treaty in 2005 over disputed territories. China has too many designs over other places that it can more easily aggress upon without annoying Russia, like Taiwan, India and The South China Sea. Russia will not choose India over China. The US and NATO and Pacific allies on the other hand have no choice but to ally with India, because they have issues with China over North Korea, the SCS, Japanese islands and Chinese loans for oil fraud schemes and many other issues.

If Russia hands over disputed territories to China, then we know for sure Russia needs China. Until then, Russian and Chinese strategic relations are sketchy.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

But it is because there is a risk that China and Russia will join forces that Europe must join forces with Russia as soon as possible. But the Anglo Saxons are too stupid to see that and that's why we're happy that UK is leaving Europe.

 

[BMD]

But it is because there is a risk that China and Russia will join forces that Europe must join forces with Russia as soon as possible. But the Anglo Saxons are too stupid to see that and that's why we're happy that UK is leaving Europe.

Russia already has joined with China, they even hold joint military drills. Russia has no shared ideological values with the EU. You're living in cloud cuckoo land. I'm glad we're leaving if we have to pay money just to protect you from your own stupidity.

US 'closely tracking' as Chinese navy in the Baltics for war games with Russia

US 'closely tracking' as Chinese navy in the Baltics for war games with Russia
Chinese warships will join Vladimir Putin’s navy in the Baltic Sea on Friday ahead of war games which are being watched closely by Western powers.

Russia launches biggest war games in decades | The Japan Times

Russia launches biggest war games in decades
MOSCOW - Russia began its biggest war games since the fall of the Soviet Union on Tuesday close to its border with China, mobilizing 300,000 troops in a show of force that will include joint exercises with the Chinese army.

China, Russia Launch Naval Drills In Far East

China, Russia Launch Naval Drills In Far East

This is why you keep getting invaded.

 

[BMD]

Great. So Germany will stop importing Russian oil and gas then.

That's cost specific. The geopolitical weakness of the EU has removed the choice. That's why Russia is so keen to keep Assad in Syria, because if he goes, the EU can access cheaper oil from Saudi Arabia and Iraq instead. The EU has walked itself into a corner with its pants down.

In 15 years, the Chinese will have more friends than today.

Don't bet on it. Once the effects of their loans for oil schemes start becoming apparent things will change. The US paid countries for their oil, China aims to financial cripple countries until they are forced to give away their oil just to cover the debt interest. Right now people see the loans being spent on various projects and they have a positive view of Chinese 'investment', but there's no such thing as free money and the only thing China is truly investing in is itself.

They may not need military allies. You forget that China is US+EU combined in terms of population and still falls short by 40%.

That's why Russia will remain allies with them. China is ultimately a bigger market and a stronger military ally than the EU.

If Russia hands over disputed territories to China, then we know for sure Russia needs China. Until then, Russian and Chinese strategic relations are sketchy.

The territories aren't essential, by indebting other oil nations, China will have free access to increasing amounts of their oil as compound interest mounts up. That's much cheaper than fighting a war with Russia and losing a key ally. You'll also see in the above post that Russia has very clearly already chosen. You don't have 3 military drills in 2 years with another country for sketchy relations.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

Finally, France has a strategic agreement with India that easily explains our performance in the Rafale contract, we have the same kind of agreement with Australia that easily explains our performance in the Barracuda submarine contract, and India is traditionally a major ally of Russia. We'll see what comes out!

But France is one of the grains of sand that thwarts Chinese projects.

 

[BMD]

Finally, France has a strategic agreement with India that easily explains our performance in the Rafale contract, we have the same kind of agreement with Australia that easily explains our performance in the Barracuda submarine contract, and India is traditionally a major ally of Russia. We'll see what comes out!

But France is one of the grains of sand that thwarts Chinese projects.

Yes but France will be of sod all use in a military stand-off against China and Russia will side with China or, at best, remain neutral.

 

[LoneWolfSandeep]

Yes but France will be of sod all use in a military stand-off against China and Russia will side with China or, at best, remain neutral.

Russia is aware what the economy & military power, China will have in 20-30 years & its secretly very worried - They have gone on war in past & any truce with china only means China settle it when they have upper hand. As they say avenge the shame, till then smile.
Same case with India-China. hence India-Russia
USA has been a unreliably partner of late for EU & rest of world - USA has already sanctioned some EU banks & in one case $8billion was the price. France/EU coundnt do anything to stop USA financial bullying.
Russia is land surplus country, it has no hunger for more, infact Russia sold alaska region to USA earlier if anyone reads history. So no EU has no real threat from Russia. Its played up in media for decades now due to NATO pact. But in 2-3 decades times China be 4-5 times bigger threat than Russia. And China has expansionist tendencies & not a democracy either.

Infact USA has good relations with India as do Russia, when trump came to power, USA lost a grand opportunity to create a USA-India-Russia alliance, which Russia was giving open signs it is interested, but USA secret state has hijacked that option & started another cold war of sorts with Britain as ally.

Its logical - powered by France/Germany the EU will come to a understanding with Russia for mutual protection in future. Just as India has with Russia.

Only fools plan for today only, visionary plan for 2-3 decades. And the real threat is in 2-3 decades. when no single grouping be sufficient.
Its China-China-China only.
Hence logical Paris-Delhi axis in Indo-Pacific & soon a Paris-Moscow or is there one already in place but secret

 

[A Person]

But it is because there is a risk that China and Russia will join forces that Europe must join forces with Russia as soon as possible. But the Anglo Saxons are too stupid to see that and that's why we're happy that UK is leaving Europe.

So would you say that in the future, there will be an Eurasian block of Western Europe + Russia, an Oceanian block of the Five Eyes, and an East Asian block of China and satellite countries?

Its logical - powered by France/Germany the EU will come to a understanding with Russia for mutual protection in future. Just as India has with Russia.

Only fools plan for today only, visionary plan for 2-3 decades. And the real threat is in 2-3 decades. when no single grouping be sufficient.
Its China-China-China only.
Hence logical Paris-Delhi axis in Indo-Pacific & soon a Paris-Moscow or is there one already in place but secret

I honestly don't see that happening for another generation at least. Putin has to be replaced first, and he'll stay in power until he dies of old age.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

So would you say that in the future, there will be an Eurasian block of Western Europe + Russia, an Oceanian block of the Five Eyes, and an East Asian block of China and satellite countries?

Perhaps, who know?

I honestly don't see that happening for another generation at least. Putin has to be replaced first, and he'll stay in power until he dies of old age.

I don't understand, I love Putin! He's so moderate! With the means of action at his disposal, many would not have had his patience and would not have endured all the crap that was done to him.