My feelings exactly. Type-1 transport (upto 26 tons) contested between C-130J and C-390, and Type 2 (>35 tons) between C2 (if the Japanese respond) and A400M.
Let's not forget requirements changed from 18-27T in 2022 to 18-30T in 2025.
Don't think the Il-76s will be upgraded. They're 40 years old now, and by the time IAF decides to make up their minds (a big IF) about upgrading them, they'll be 50 y/o and ripe for retirement, which one can argue the Il-76s already are. Them being high maintenance hangar queens don't earn them too many favours in the IAF's eyes either.
Current lot of IL-76s will serve up to 2035 without upgrades, so there's time to make that decision. The IAF has approached Russia about it as of 2024 to extend it to 2045-50.

