Correct me if I am wrong.
As far as I know, a NOTAM danger area is only issued when there is an experimental flight scheduled to fly at a certain range of height(i.e. the range of height at which most commercial planes fly). If the flight is meant to be flying lower or higher, its not designated a danger zone. For example, the pic below marks the danger zone and the probable flight path of an Agni 5 missile. Notice how a significant part of the flight path isn't marked in the danger zone, that's because the missile will be outside the commercial flying height then. Keep in mind this was meant to be a depressed altitude flight, not a fully ballistic filght(hence the reduced range of 3000 km only).
View attachment 10696
The point I am trying to make with this photo is that it is possible to have experimental flight of weapons without issuing a NOTAM danger zone, as long as you are flying low or high enough.
But the common thing across all our missile test is that the Abdul Kalam Island is always marked as a danger zone, that's where the flight originates from. Here that's not the case. If you look at the NOTAM issued the danger zone resembles the splash area danger zone of a ballistic missile test. But where is the origin ? Its possible that a missile is fired off from land/sea and it flies low then attains a height at the kill phase, but that makes no sense. Why would any weapon want to do that ? Its also possible that the missile is fired off from sea, it attains a height and eventually it drops to a much lower altitude(Nirbhay/Brahmos does that) or maybe just loiters with in the danger zone(Nirbhay can do that too).
That's why I think its a Nirbhay.
But you are right that Nirbhay has a raft of hurdles to overcome. Let's wait and find out.
Each edge is well over 200 km. For the above stated reasons I too believe its an AShM.
