This deal if gets signed within a year or two then the typhoon or f-15EX wins. If we have no movement rafale f5 is what IAF is eyeing.You are taking that literally at face value?
So you believe we will begin the RFP stage this year, evaluate the contenders, choose a winner, negotiate a contract and sign it next year so the first jet is inducted in 2029, so it cannot be the F5?
Or it is more realistic to believe they will sign the contract in 4-5 years?
RFP will take 6 months, without extensions. Paper evaluations may take just a month compared to last time's 3. Flight tests could take 6 months minimum, 'cause we need to test the jets across two seasons, summer in Rajasthan and winter at Leh. Then they need to shortlist. They took a year last time, but they can get it done in 3 months this time. Then they took a year for L1, which can now be completed in 3 months too. So the fastest they can finish this is 2 years. I provided a buffer of a year to make up for issues from the vendor side or bureaucratic delays from within MoD.
So 2028 at the minimum before we negotiate with the winner. If it's Rafale, things can get done in just a few months. If it's Typhoon, it could take well over a year. So contract any time in 2029 or 2030. They could aim to get it done before the elections though. So we can get the first jet in either 2032 or 2033.
But I like how you're trying to hard to believe the IAF will choose an inferior jet just 'cause they do not want to delay by a year while Dassault plans to offer F5 anyway. You may have forgotten this but MRFA RFI gave the FOEM 5 years to deliver the first squadron after a contract is signed. So even a signature today would mean an F5 delivery in 2030.
Yep.
Ironically, the USAF is looking at joining GCAP. My, how the mighty have fallen.
MMRCA 2.0 - Updates and Discussions
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The new M88 will be the better bet.
I'd see the Rafale having the advantage 'cause we have already negotiated a GTG agreement with France. For others, it needs to start afresh. Plus the Typhoon and F-15 require flight testing, the F-15 in particular.
In 2016, the EF consortium made a last ditch attempt, offering a 30% discount on fly away price, making Typhoon cheaper than Rafale. However, the IAF wasn't swayed. Back then, the one thing that no other MMRCA contender could match was Rafale's status as nuke delivery vector in French AF service.
No relevance to nukes. It was just made up by the media. The Rafales are for conventional use.
The discount is pointless if it isn't part of the initial bid. 'Cause it's not binding and they can always renege on it. If they actually had the ability to provide a discount, they would have done so intially. But what they did is play around with numbers and configurations to fake it. FOEMs do that after losing. The Typhoon guys did it in Korea too.
You are taking that literally at face value?
So you believe we will begin the RFP stage this year, evaluate the contenders, choose a winner, negotiate a contract and sign it next year so the first jet is inducted in 2029, so it cannot be the F5?
Or it is more realistic to believe they will sign the contract in 4-5 years?
RFP will take 6 months, without extensions. Paper evaluations may take just a month compared to last time's 3. Flight tests could take 6 months minimum, 'cause we need to test the jets across two seasons, summer in Rajasthan and winter at Leh. Then they need to shortlist. They took a year last time, but they can get it done in 3 months this time. Then they took a year for L1, which can now be completed in 3 months too. So the fastest they can finish this is 2 years. I provided a buffer of a year to make up for issues from the vendor side or bureaucratic delays from within MoD.
So 2028 at the minimum before we negotiate with the winner. If it's Rafale, things can get done in just a few months. If it's Typhoon, it could take well over a year. So contract any time in 2029 or 2030. They could aim to get it done before the elections though. So we can get the first jet in either 2032 or 2033.
But I like how you're trying to hard to believe the IAF will choose an inferior jet just 'cause they do not want to delay by a year while Dassault plans to offer F5 anyway. You may have forgotten this but MRFA RFI gave the FOEM 5 years to deliver the first squadron after a contract is signed. So even a signature today would mean an F5 delivery in 2030.
Yep.
Ironically, the USAF is looking at joining GCAP. My, how the mighty have fallen.
They're talking about fast tracking the deal by cutting down on scope of evaluation. We've already extensively trialed most of the offers in previous MMRCA, and the difference between the F3 of old and current F4 as far as basic hardware goes isn't much so a lot of that is still valid. Same for Typhoon or F-16, Gripen E etc.
Only the differences need to be accounted for, and they are mostly on the software side.
If they aren't serious about fast-tracking the deal and want to wait till next election cycle is over for signing, then all bets are off. Anything can happen between now and then.
Only chance of this "fast track" happening is the new Defence Procurement Procedure 2025. If they can simplify the procurement cycle.
F15 EX : best radar totally annihilate by bigger RCS of all.
Gripen : not a solution as a direct competitor to Tejas 1 & 2.
Typhoon : only interesting for full A to A role, if not too short legs and low capacity in air to ground. And you already have Su 30 in big Qty for AA role.
Not really.
Rafale road map is fully followed and on time, on spec and on budget since F2. Why would you imagine Dassault not able to respect this with F5? At least there are less financial problems than before because huge export success.
Typhoon will have nothing to oppose to Rafale F5. It is already dated, and no more the GB, D, IT & SP main horse.
EJ200 is the best in air to air role, but less suited for low and medium flight profile.
ToT : good luck to deal with 4 nations about ToT.....
Quite the opposite. Rafale was designed to take over the N deterrence role from AdlA M2000D/N and Aeronavale Super Etendard. The IAF would have taken it into consideration when scoping out ISE requirements. Imo, that's why it chose to pay a premium for Rafale over cheaper alternatives like EF and Gripen.
The M2000 experience would have counted too.
Rafale with ASMP-A & now ASMPA-R combo is for nuclear strikes/raid. The ASMP series missiles are dedicated nuke cruise missiles which are not for sale so far.
Rafale evolved from the twin-engine M4000 designed with N-delivery in mind. Imo, Rafale would be a natural progression from the ageing Vajra for the IAF (as it was for France)
Why would buy ASMP when we've had our own N gravity bombs for ages? Today, our ASM prog is advanced enough to have dedicated strategic variants. Heck we could be moving towards a 2nd gen stanoff N weapon by now.
All the jets have to be trialed. Rafale, Typhoon, Gripen, Mig-35, and F-16 require fewer tests, but the Su-35 and F-15EX need to undergo the full scope of trials. Furthermore, older jets will be tested again for parameters they failed the last time, this includes Rafale and Typhoon.
Even if every other stage is at the fastest speed possible, the RFP stage will take very long. All contenders will get 6 months, and even a further extension of at least 2 months is possible if one or two ask for it. And the overall evaluations will take 6-12 months easy by default. Neither of these stages can be shortened because India doesn't control them. The RFP stage is controlled by vendors and evaluations are held as per our weather conditions and limitations imposed by vendors. P-75I took so long because of these two stages.
So a contract before 2028 is impossible by default.
MRFA will be under DAP-2020. But a lot of changes being made this year will reflect in the MRFA tender.
Because aircraft needs to be immune to electromagnetic pulse in such case.
The IAF has no interest in the nuke delivery role. It doesn't matter what the French want it for, but the 36 Rafales are for conventional warfare only. The IAF can't be bothered with the SFC butting in their business with so few jets around. SFC will have to wait for the fleet to get bigger or look at something else.
The Jags and M2000s will continue with that mission for as long as it takes.
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In the 1980s-90s, we used the toss bombing technique where the ac goes into a steep climb before dropping its payload . RuAF uses it in Ukraine even today