PAK-FA / Sukhoi Su-57 - Updates and Discussions

[Rajput Lion]

You've misread it. What's in the tweet there is actually what I've been saying. HAL's talks with Russia are useless, it has to be approved by MoD, and there's no approval.

So there's nothing happening with the IAF on this front.

IAF is asking for something the Russians cannot provide, ie, training an IAF pilot on the Su-57M1 so it can be evaluated in India; Rajasthan and Leh. That's been the requirement since 2017, which the Russians have denied permission for. By asking for the impossible, the IAF is showing no intention of going for the Su-57. It's a dead-end program for the IAF.

Now what's necessary is for the Russians to finish the development of the two-seat and then give IAF pilots a backseat ride. But by the time this happens, ie, two-seat achieving operational capability and with the Izd 30 (very important), AMCA will already be flying and IAF would have made a decision on SCAF/GCAP, plus the Chinese would be flying 6th gen J-XX.

At this point, the Su-60 will have to show extraordinary value beyond what the AMCA provides because IAF will have to justify duplicating AMCA's capability at a cost that rivals or more than rivals India's participation in SCAF/GCAP and the contract value of AMCA. It means Su-60 will have to duplicate the capabilities of SCAF/GCAP to have any value to the IAF.

So new competition between SCAF, GCAP, Su-60, and maybe F-47.

Actually you're completely off-mark here. As per current HAL chief going for Su-57 is a complete GOI decision. So all the talks that happened between HAL & UAC was at the behest of GOI.

And IAF is not interested? Lol. If IAF was not interested then UAC team would have never visited the HAL Nashik plant. GOI doesn't negotiate with any OEM until IAF says, yes. You, of all the people, know all about this.

 

[Rajput Lion]

Its a modification of T-50-4/T-50-5 prototype, they converted it into a twin seater, its more of a demonstrator, will be G-limited in flight tests as its base structure was not built for twin seats.

Looks like IAF will get this prototype for evaluation. So maybe all our Su-57s could be dual-seat variants and we may not procure single-seat version at all. Anyways, once IAF tests it properly, then they will decide the specs of MKIsation.

 

[randomradio]

Actually you're completely off-mark here. As per current HAL chief going for Su-57 is a complete GOI decision. So all the talks that happened between HAL & UAC was at the behest of GOI.

And IAF is not interested? Lol. If IAF was not interested then UAC team would have never visited the HAL Nashik plant. GOI doesn't negotiate with any OEM until IAF says, yes. You, of all the people, know all about this.

As I said, you've misread it.

What's been said is HAL has been having talks with Russia but that any movement "going forward" can happen only with govt approval.

"any move toward local Su-57E production will ultimately be decided by the Government of India.'

It means nothing has been decided by the govt. All he's saying is there's nothing HAL can do by itself.

Nothing's stopping the Russians from visiting the MKI production site. OEM-company relations have always been there. Going beyond this requires govt approval.

 

[randomradio]

Looks like IAF will get this prototype for evaluation. So maybe all our Su-57s could be dual-seat variants and we may not procure single-seat version at all. Anyways, once IAF tests it properly, then they will decide the specs of MKIsation.

That's exactly what I've been saying. The Su-57 is dead for India. There's no interest in 40 jets stopgap or a license production of M1E.

Any interest shown will be for two-seat and that's long after its first flight, ie, when it's developed and operational in Russia. It will take at least 3 years to develop it, and maybe 2 years to make it operational. At this point, the IAF is likely to evaluate it. In case there's interest to buy, it will happen only between 2030-35, for a 2037-40 operationalization, ie, around the time 6th gen is expected to become available. That's why it's competing with European 6th gen.

It's not realistic within the LCA Mk2, MRFA timeframe.

 

[Tatvamasi]

 

[Rajput Lion]

As I said, you've misread it.

What's been said is HAL has been having talks with Russia but that any movement "going forward" can happen only with govt approval.

"any move toward local Su-57E production will ultimately be decided by the Government of India.'

It means nothing has been decided by the govt. All he's saying is there's nothing HAL can do by itself.

Nothing's stopping the Russians from visiting the MKI production site. OEM-company relations have always been there. Going beyond this requires govt approval.

That's exactly what I've been saying. The Su-57 is dead for India. There's no interest in 40 jets stopgap or a license production of M1E.

Any interest shown will be for two-seat and that's long after its first flight, ie, when it's developed and operational in Russia. It will take at least 3 years to develop it, and maybe 2 years to make it operational. At this point, the IAF is likely to evaluate it. In case there's interest to buy, it will happen only between 2030-35, for a 2037-40 operationalization, ie, around the time 6th gen is expected to become available. That's why it's competing with European 6th gen.

It's not realistic within the LCA Mk2, MRFA timeframe.

Two-Seat is also Su-57 though, just a tailored version for us. In the end, both India and Russia won't engage in talks regarding Su-57 if IAF is not interested. The point is that it is the IAF that have given go ahead for Su-57(in either single or dual seat or both) and not HAL which are randomly involved in talks with the Russians like you implied.

 

[randomradio]

Two-Seat is also Su-57 though, just a tailored version for us. In the end, both India and Russia won't engage in talks regarding Su-57 if IAF is not interested. The point is that it is the IAF that have given go ahead for Su-57(in either single or dual seat or both) and not HAL which are randomly involved in talks with the Russians like you implied.

Two-seat isn't Su-57E or M1E. That's why I keep calling it Su-60, the standalone export designation when it's marketed to India. The Su-57D/UB is for the Russians. The same thing will be renamed for the export version.

It's designed for more stealth, or at least what the Russians claim.

No, the IAF has not given any go-ahead, 'cause if they had, they would have released EoI and Perliminary SQRs.

HAL is "randomly" involved in talks. Russia and HAL are working on a workable deal to convince the IAF to enter the program. But as I said before, the Su-57 itself is incomplete, it will take until 2030 to finish. And then it must be flight tested by an IAF pilot, which the Russians are refusing. The only alternative is a backseat drive of an operational Su-60, how many ever years away that is. After that happens, in case the IAF is still interested, they can release EoI and SQRs, followed by AoN, then RFP, then evaluations in India, followed by contract. That's how far away this aircraft really is.

 

[Rajput Lion]

Two-seat isn't Su-57E or M1E. That's why I keep calling it Su-60, the standalone export designation when it's marketed to India. The Su-57D/UB is for the Russians. The same thing will be renamed for the export version.

It's designed for more stealth, or at least what the Russians claim.

No, the IAF has not given any go-ahead, 'cause if they had, they would have released EoI and Perliminary SQRs.

HAL is "randomly" involved in talks. Russia and HAL are working on a workable deal to convince the IAF to enter the program. But as I said before, the Su-57 itself is incomplete, it will take until 2030 to finish. And then it must be flight tested by an IAF pilot, which the Russians are refusing. The only alternative is a backseat drive of an operational Su-60, how many ever years away that is. After that happens, in case the IAF is still interested, they can release EoI and SQRs, followed by AoN, then RFP, then evaluations in India, followed by contract. That's how far away this aircraft really is.

Despite HAL chief clarifying that Su-57's local production is 100% GOI's decision, you still believe HAL were invovled in random talks with Russians? @YoungWolf what's your take on this?

 

[Rajput Lion]

Looking at the emblem at the tail of Su-57D, looks like Russians want this jet to be used for MUM-T with both S-70 and Manned/Unmanned Su-75, along with S-71M drone-missile.

But the most important reveal is a smaller version of Kinzhal ALBM. This is absolutely game-changing as Su-57D using its stealth can go very near a target and launch mini-Kinzhal from its IWB from unkown vector and boom, time-towards-target is reduced to a great degree and the enemy is neutralised without any warning. AFAIK, IAF is very much interested in this weapon and is a great draw for them of this jet.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2056223727436652994

 

[screambowl]

Su57 is necessary because it will give some time for India to ready other projects. With Su57 India will not only buying just aircraft but time to get develop 5th 6th Gen infrastructure. Better to buy 12 Su57 off shelf, rest can be discussed later.

 

[randomradio]

Despite HAL chief clarifying that Su-57's local production is 100% GOI's decision, you still believe HAL were invovled in random talks with Russians? @YoungWolf what's your take on this?

Yes, as I said, what HAL is saying is their "random talks" have no meaning.

Someone must have asked what HAL is doing about Su-57 production and were told that nothing's happening 'cause the govt's not involved.

What you are thinking is HAL is discussing with Russia 'cause govt told HAL to initiate those discussions. But that's not the case.

IAF has to initiate discussion by first releasing EoI or RFI. Once EoI is sent to OEM or RFI is published, OEM/OEMs send information and they use the information to create SQRs. Then IAF approaches MoD to approve the SQRs by issuing an AoN. That's called DAC approval. Then IAF releases RFP. After this, MoD initiates tender or chooses an OEM by nomination. At this point, govt tells companies to participate.

Before all this happens, the best companies can do is have random talks with OEMs. Only after the forces begin the program do these random talks have meaning. Without the program, these talks simply yield no results, just a waste of time for the company and OEM involved. Like Tata and F-16/F-35 or HAL and Mig-35/SH. All companies have such random talks with OEMs before official programs begin.

So even the govt doesn't do anything on their own, both interest and requirements come from from the forces first.

Furthermore, before MoD gives approval, they ask DRDO if they should proceed with the import program. At this point DRDO can veto it if it conflicts with their own program. Since the Su-57 does conflict with AMCA, it will be vetoed. That's why I said that Su-60 will have to be extraordinarily superior to the AMCA and should be in the same league as SCAF/GCAP to get approval.

After AMCA specs were released, I realized the Su-57 no longer has a chance in hell. AMCA completely outclasses it in pretty much every way. That's why I switched to importing 6th gen, ie, F-47, GCAP, and Mig-41. While F-47 is a tall order 'cause of local production requirements, Mig-41 has fallen off the deep end into some other category entirely. But it means the Su-57 family itself is out now. It won't be approved.

 

[screambowl]

No veto or second thought if bought under emergency procurement. There is a national security threat emerging both on security front and technological front for India when it comes to 5th gen stealth fighter. No one gives a damn about stupid AMCA which has no future without a proper engine.

 

[randomradio]

No veto or second thought if bought under emergency procurement. There is a national security threat emerging both on security front and technological front for India when it comes to 5th gen stealth fighter. No one gives a damn about stupid AMCA which has no future without a proper engine.

IAF cannot buy Su-57 via emergency procurement route. It has a limited budget of just 300Cr per contract with 1-year timeline.

If you're thinking of GTG route like Rafale, that went out the window long ago, the Su-57 has not only failed to meet its development goals, even the Russians are not open to provide the concessions necessary to make it happen.

IAF also has no interest in bridging the stealth gap with an imported 5th gen jet. They have chosen to go the anti-stealth, advanced air defenses, and rocket forces route until AMCA comes in.

IAF's threat assessment is also based on PLAAF's actual capabilities and not paper capabilities as assumed by people. PLAAF is 5 years away from becoming a threat to Taiwan and Japan, 10 years to the US, and at least 15 years to India. Even the J-20 with WS-15 is not a threat to India due to the extremely harsh environment it has to operate in. And there's the human element as well. War in the summer forces them to either get cooked under Tibet's sun or burn in the desert at temperatures up to 45 deg C. PLAAF doesn't train enough in such conditions, especially at the tempo required to fight India.

 

[Rune]

I don't think any new fighter procurement will happen till next decade now. Tejas Mk-2 orders will likely happen around 2031 if everything goes well. By that time a lot of things will become clearer with regards to AMCA's technology too.

 

[Rajput Lion]

I don't think any new fighter procurement will happen till next decade now. Tejas Mk-2 orders will likely happen around 2031 if everything goes well. By that time a lot of things will become clearer with regards to AMCA's technology too.

Su-57 deal is locked now. The timeline for contract signing is likely before March 2027 in best case and by March 2028 in worst case. We don't have option as China is about to field a 1000 strong J-20 fleet by the end of this decade and PAF is about to receive 40 J-35AEs within the next few years with deliveries beginning sometime in this year itself.

 

[Shan]

Folks are underestimating the MoD and IAF. If push comes to shove, they'll just blow the tax payers money and buy themselves time by investing in the twin seater Su-57D. Long term strategy might be absent but their ability to run for cover when facing what they call "severe" issues is unmatched. They will wail to the MoF and GoI with all their might. So, the cycle will continue and another EP might get announced as the MEA runs around trying to get the GoI out of any diplomatic entanglements that they would be facing when trying to acquire the RU FA. Disappointing and saddening. India needs a new consortium to give it better domestic options. Most should be supporting the fact that HAL should no longer remain the only game in town.

 

[YoungWolf]

Despite HAL chief clarifying that Su-57's local production is 100% GOI's decision, you still believe HAL were invovled in random talks with Russians? @YoungWolf what's your take on this?

While HAL Chief has said that the final decision regarding Su-57E/D/M will rest squarely with the GoI/MoD and rightly so, the complete lack of any official document (EoI, AoN, DAC approval, CCS clearance, the whole shebang) makes me question just how seriously the end-user (IAF) is considering the jet.

When IAF backed out of the FGFA programme, the shortcomings they cited with the base platform still exist, for better or for worse. The current HAL-UAC offer still pitches Su-57E (with AL-41-F1, Item 177 at a stretch), which won't entice the IAF at all (full spec or nothing). I'd say IAF's current prioritising getting Tejas Mk1A, MK2 and AMCA off the ground and seal the Rafale deal. Any potential foreign 5th gen will be behind the above 4 in terms of priority. I, for one, would wait until IAF at least sends out an EoI.

There's a non-zero chance that this could very well be a HAL initiative, given they're almost out of the AMCA race and still need something to remain relevant post Tejas mk2.cYou've following the defence circus for long enough, like most of us here. You should know by now that nothing is official, until the files start moving around.

Edit: didn't get notified for your mention, don't know why.

 

[screambowl]

IAF cannot buy Su-57 via emergency procurement route. It has a limited budget of just 300Cr per contract with 1-year timeline.

IAF and MoD have to sit and redefine the budget for at least 12 Su57, for all deliveries before 2032, and they will be pushed by the adversaries to do this, it is just a matter of time. We all know before 2038 no AMCA is coming because there is no suitable engine. I have full confidence that AMCA will end up like FGFA only due to the engine struggle and will be sent for further upgrades and changes, delaying the induction.

We have to think and be realistic in nature because we are not able to develop a 4th gen jet engine, there is no scope that in next 20 years there will be a 5th gen compatible engine for stealth fighter.

Avionics part is not an issue, but it is always the engine.

IAF also has no interest in bridging the stealth gap with an imported 5th gen jet.

I would say, buy half SQN Su 57 just to buy the time until AMCA comes in. That is my debate.

They have chosen to go the anti-stealth, advanced air defenses, and rocket forces route until AMCA comes in.

That will seriously cause air superority challenge because even advance anti stealth air defence have logistic issues along 3400km long border. I am not saying stop AMCA etc, but you need to buy some time to develop that.

Overloading the airdefence is not a good policy you know.

IAF's threat assessment is also based on PLAAF's actual capabilities and not paper capabilities as assumed by people. PLAAF is 5 years away from becoming a threat to Taiwan and Japan, 10 years to the US, and at least 15 years to India. Even the J-20 with WS-15 is not a threat to India due to the extremely harsh environment it has to operate in. And there's the human element as well. War in the summer forces them to either get cooked under Tibet's sun or burn in the desert at temperatures up to 45 deg C. PLAAF doesn't train enough in such conditions, especially at the tempo required to fight India.

Did you mean 10 years to India and atleast 15 years to the US? Even If we assume this assesment to be correct we should not forget that they are well aware of Russian weaponary and it's limits more than what Pakistanis know. Their EW and Recon capabilities are extremely good.

Climate issue is something else, and you can't blindly depend on climate it may be an advantage but not always.

 

[randomradio]

IAF and MoD have to sit and redefine the budget for at least 12 Su57, for all deliveries before 2032, and they will be pushed by the adversaries to do this, it is just a matter of time. We all know before 2038 no AMCA is coming because there is no suitable engine. I have full confidence that AMCA will end up like FGFA only due to the engine struggle and will be sent for further upgrades and changes, delaying the induction.

We have to think and be realistic in nature because we are not able to develop a 4th gen jet engine, there is no scope that in next 20 years there will be a 5th gen compatible engine for stealth fighter.

Avionics part is not an issue, but it is always the engine.

Why 12? There's nothing we can do with 12.

AMCA is all well and good as long as it's ready by 2040 with the new engine. I think the French will deliver.

That will seriously cause air superority challenge because even advance anti stealth air defence have logistic issues along 3400km long border. I am not saying stop AMCA etc, but you need to buy some time to develop that.

Overloading the airdefence is not a good policy you know.

PLAAF cannot mass effectively against India. Their main bases are too far away and the ones they have are too few in number. They are way too focused on the Pacific front.

And Tibet acts as a wall. When they try to cross the wall, they get exposed to our air defenses. And stealth doesn't help at this point due to the short distance.

So, while they cannot mass against India, they also cannot fly close enough. All they can do is resort to standoff weapons, and our air defenses can act against such weapons quite easily.

We can mass against them using our fighters and use our rocket forces more effectively due to their shorter exposure time and PLAAF's potential lack of forward deployed fighter jets.

Did you mean 10 years to India and atleast 15 years to the US? Even If we assume this assesment to be correct we should not forget that they are well aware of Russian weaponary and it's limits more than what Pakistanis know. Their EW and Recon capabilities are extremely good.

10 for the US 'cause they can mass against them with existing tech. There's no Tibet wall in the Pacific. So all the Chinese need is to get a 1.5-2x numbers superiority over the US + allies.

15 years against India 'cause, to both generate mass and surpass the wall, they need 6th gen jets that have reach, altitude, and larger sensors.

 

[Lolwa]

Su-57 deal is locked now. The timeline for contract signing is likely before March 2027 in best case and by March 2028 in worst case. We don't have option as China is about to field a 1000 strong J-20 fleet by the end of this decade and PAF is about to receive 40 J-35AEs within the next few years with deliveries beginning sometime in this year itself.

They need to sign the deal this year along with a pair of s500