Imran calls it a "Good News".
"Dosto, mere pass ek khush khabar hai. China ne hume loan de diya hai. Humari sari mushkalat ab khatam ho jayengi."
Pakistan Economy : Updates and Discussions
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"Dosto, mere pass ek khush khabar hai. China ne hume loan de diya hai. Humari sari mushkalat ab khatam ho jayengi."
@Nilgiri IMF policy of suppressing demand by controlling import (devaluation by floating exchange rate effect) and increasing taxes mostly indirect taxes such as on gas and oil that prove too costly to poor does it not destroys domestic industries?
Beside a marginal increase in export, isn't the domestic demand gets destroyed due to high inflation of Rs depreciation and increase in indirect taxes?
So why this policy which creates more poor, starve them to stabilize the CAD and other macroeconomic indicators? Is there no other solution?
Beside a marginal increase in export, isn't the domestic demand gets destroyed due to high inflation of Rs depreciation and increase in indirect taxes?
So why this policy which creates more poor, starve them to stabilize the CAD and other macroeconomic indicators? Is there no other solution?
IMF does not care about the Standard
Of living or Inflation in Any country
Its only concern is to reduce Imports of its
Debtor Nations
That can be done by curbing Aggregate Demand
When Nations import Recklessly , they
Invariably face Balance of Payments crisis
And then they Run to IMF
But if underlying problems are not solved
Then countries like Pakistan will
Never be able to return their loans
When countries print Their currencies
And increase their total Consumption
Two things happen
1 Exports stagnate
2 Imports rise
And then countries have to borrow from
Foreign Banks ie increase in External Debt
Yes it all depends (as to the multiplier effect sensitivity of the type of demand, there is stuff that is one immediate use top level stuff versus stuff that feeds into bottom and goes through many hands etc and sustains and supports much more ppl etc) when it comes to demand compression. It should always be last resort. But basically its potent final medicine when patient has been very reckless and indisciplined in previous care and self care.
There won't be an increase in export either, I think you mean balance of trade will be improved (regarding current account). Basically its forcing someone to spend within their means for a while during your credit line you gave them....so they can build credit history up again.
Think of it as short term electroshock therapy to break few short term habit bubbles, because the patient does not want to confront its oligarchs and have a revolution (i.e the underlying problem that @STEPHEN COHEN refers to).
So its basically business cycle (boom-bust) of debt/default pressure waxing and waning to keep things in status quo. Its all part of the process going to IMF....its lot easier to do that than change the actual reason you need to go to them on cue every so many years.
That's 20 crore people we are talking about! An epidemic of poverty is lingering over majority of them, that's like decapitating the patient and expect him to recover, Pakistan will never be same.
Only if they were actually targeting oligarchs. Big oligarchs pay bribe to judges even bigger directly in open to Supreme Court, 1/3 of GDP is captured by Army, and oligarchs have some general on payroll to extract some effect.
IMF is planning for destruction of masses, gas is already unaffordable to them they are going back to stone age without anyone bombing them to it. If they don't improve their image and get some investment I can't even think where they will land.
what other solution do you propose?
look at the macro indicators:
Pak needs to pay its debtors money - and they wont be able to pay it right now. hence the loan from IMF
in effect, IMF is giving a loan to pay off other loans.
this is happening because Pakistan is spending more than it is earning.
two things need to be done:
reduce spending (imports), increase earning (taxes, essential services)
Pakistan's tax base is very low - hence the only way to increase earning is to increase essential services cost.
they can promise to increase their tax base as well - if it does, they can reduce their essential services cost.
how to reduce imports?
you put a cess on the imports or devalue your currency so imports become costly and exports become attractive.
the idea behind capitalism is - if the cost increases, only the most worthwhile goods will be imported.
this will also make domestic alternative products attractive - increases consumption and local economic activity.
the only issue here is the folks paying taxes are neither the rich nor the poor but the middle class
the imports most of them get exempted from taxes if you are well connected or rich.
that is not up to IMF to fix. right?
Pakistan’s financing needs may hit $50b in next 2 years | The Express Tribune
@safriz.
Great Times are coming for pakistan
@safriz.
Great Times are coming for pakistan
@Gautam @Shajida Khan
GA Sabri, former special secretary Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources and former DG Oil, said prior to drilling the Kekra-1, the probability of discovery was 19 percent, but after two sides tracking, the probability had reduced.
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The people who briefed this cocaine user were the same people who told him that they had two Indian Pilots with them of which one was in CMH undergoing treatment. Here we have a case wherein the the fraudulently elected PM of Pakistan has no clue of what is happening in his nation.
Bechari Pakistaniyon ki halat.
Boys played well... you know "the works".
We will call all Pakistani from now on Sheik Imran al Lahori Gaswallah.
Pakistanis have this issue of premature celebration, a similar case was of gold mine, the PR factory made them belive that Pakistan was going to be richest country after that mine.
Next came CPEC drama, the one that was going to make them ultra rich.
Then came this charsi Imran and for a feel good story this was planted.
What else can you expect from a society heavily addicted to conspiracy theories, when this discovery drama is over a new theory of sabotage from foreign agents will be floated meanwhile ISPR will work on new Drama for feel good.
This same strategy is repeated again and again and public is taken for ride and the public knows these antics very well yet they want to live in the dream as it's less painful than reality.
Next came CPEC drama, the one that was going to make them ultra rich.
Then came this charsi Imran and for a feel good story this was planted.
What else can you expect from a society heavily addicted to conspiracy theories, when this discovery drama is over a new theory of sabotage from foreign agents will be floated meanwhile ISPR will work on new Drama for feel good.
This same strategy is repeated again and again and public is taken for ride and the public knows these antics very well yet they want to live in the dream as it's less painful than reality.
Why do you think that part of undivided India or Hindustan as known in the days of yore, never had an indigenous empire? Kutil buddhi ke liye bhi buddhi chahiye. Wahan to hal kheenchnewaale aur chalak dono hi bail hain.
Pakistan's wheat production likely to hit five-year low
By Salman Siddiqui
Published: March 28, 2019
Representational image. PHOTO: REUTERS
KARACHI: Pakistan is anticipated to miss the wheat production target of 25.6 million tons in the current crop year as farmers have planted the staple crop over a lower area because of water scarcity amid drop in fertiliser consumption.
The country is likely to produce 24.8 million tons of wheat in the current crop year, which is a five-year low, if farmers manage to take per-acre production to the level of 2,885 kg they achieved in the previous year, according to the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) second quarterly report on the state of economy.
The chances of matching last year’s per-acre production are low for the reasons that Sindh, which has the highest per-acre production in the country, has cultivated the crop over a lower area and the farmers reduced the quantity of essential di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) fertiliser and other nutrients during sowing.
Accordingly, this will be the second successive year in which wheat production in the country is set to be lower than the preceding year. More importantly, the anticipated production is most likely to drop to a five-year low.
The low production is, however, not a threat to food security as the county has a notable carryover stock of wheat following surplus crops in the past two successive years, according to the central bank.
The low wheat production will, however, contribute to a slowdown in the real economic growth in the country. Apart from this, the low harvests of all three major summer crops, including cotton, rice and sugarcane, have already impacted the gross domestic product (GDP) growth.
The SBP said second estimates of major Kharif (summer) crops reinforced the earlier assessment of lower production levels for all the three major crops in FY19 compared to FY18 – cotton harvest will go down by 9.2%, rice 3.9% and sugarcane 15.9%.
“While rice and sugarcane surpassed the targets set in the Annual Plan FY19, the fall from last year’s level will weigh heavily on growth of the crop sector,” it said.
“After Kharif, when farmers faced water shortage, the situation became more acute in initial months of the Rabi (winter) season. In addition to water scarcity, fertiliser offtake declined and credit flow decelerated during the wheat sowing months.”
Area under wheat cultivation is estimated to shrink 2.9%. “Most of this fall in area has been recorded in Sindh, which has the highest average yield among provinces,” the central bank said.
Challenges regarding canal water availability persisted in the sowing months of Rabi (winter) season as irrigation flows stood at 16 million acre feet (MAF) in the second quarter of FY19, not only 6.3% lower than the previous year but also lower than the Q2 average over the last five years, it said.
“The decline in fertiliser usage is more pronounced than the reduction in area under wheat cultivation. It is mainly explained by an increase of 16.7% in fertiliser prices. Furthermore, the fall in DAP offtake, the essential imported fertiliser used during sowing, was more pronounced as its price increase (around 30% in Q2) was due to a combination of rise in international prices and rupee depreciation,” the report said.
“In the presence of significant carryover stocks, the government had reduced the target for the planted area.”
By Salman Siddiqui
Published: March 28, 2019
Representational image. PHOTO: REUTERS
KARACHI: Pakistan is anticipated to miss the wheat production target of 25.6 million tons in the current crop year as farmers have planted the staple crop over a lower area because of water scarcity amid drop in fertiliser consumption.
The country is likely to produce 24.8 million tons of wheat in the current crop year, which is a five-year low, if farmers manage to take per-acre production to the level of 2,885 kg they achieved in the previous year, according to the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) second quarterly report on the state of economy.
The chances of matching last year’s per-acre production are low for the reasons that Sindh, which has the highest per-acre production in the country, has cultivated the crop over a lower area and the farmers reduced the quantity of essential di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) fertiliser and other nutrients during sowing.
Accordingly, this will be the second successive year in which wheat production in the country is set to be lower than the preceding year. More importantly, the anticipated production is most likely to drop to a five-year low.
The low production is, however, not a threat to food security as the county has a notable carryover stock of wheat following surplus crops in the past two successive years, according to the central bank.
The low wheat production will, however, contribute to a slowdown in the real economic growth in the country. Apart from this, the low harvests of all three major summer crops, including cotton, rice and sugarcane, have already impacted the gross domestic product (GDP) growth.
The SBP said second estimates of major Kharif (summer) crops reinforced the earlier assessment of lower production levels for all the three major crops in FY19 compared to FY18 – cotton harvest will go down by 9.2%, rice 3.9% and sugarcane 15.9%.
“While rice and sugarcane surpassed the targets set in the Annual Plan FY19, the fall from last year’s level will weigh heavily on growth of the crop sector,” it said.
“After Kharif, when farmers faced water shortage, the situation became more acute in initial months of the Rabi (winter) season. In addition to water scarcity, fertiliser offtake declined and credit flow decelerated during the wheat sowing months.”
Area under wheat cultivation is estimated to shrink 2.9%. “Most of this fall in area has been recorded in Sindh, which has the highest average yield among provinces,” the central bank said.
Challenges regarding canal water availability persisted in the sowing months of Rabi (winter) season as irrigation flows stood at 16 million acre feet (MAF) in the second quarter of FY19, not only 6.3% lower than the previous year but also lower than the Q2 average over the last five years, it said.
“The decline in fertiliser usage is more pronounced than the reduction in area under wheat cultivation. It is mainly explained by an increase of 16.7% in fertiliser prices. Furthermore, the fall in DAP offtake, the essential imported fertiliser used during sowing, was more pronounced as its price increase (around 30% in Q2) was due to a combination of rise in international prices and rupee depreciation,” the report said.
“In the presence of significant carryover stocks, the government had reduced the target for the planted area.”