People's Republic of China (PRC) : News & Discussions

LX1111 said:
This needs to be divided into two situations. One is that you buy a house for living. The increase or decrease in the price of your house will not have much impact on you. It is impossible to choose to refuse to repay the loan because of the decline in the house price, because you have no other house to live in except this house. The other is the most troublesome. You bought a lot of houses for investment. With the decline of real estate, you will choose to refuse to repay. This will lead to the credit crisis you mentioned. Fortunately, due to the rise of China's real estate and China's rapid urbanization, the first situation is the majority.
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Talking about the situation where the occupant loses their job and has no means of keeping up the mortgage repayments. The bank can foreclose their house (sell it) but if the house is worth less than the outstanding loan amount, the banks are still out of cash.
 
BMD said:
Talking about the situation where the occupant loses their job and has no means of keeping up the mortgage repayments. The bank can foreclose their house (sell it) but if the house is worth less than the outstanding loan amount, the banks are still out of cash.
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So for now, it depends on whether we can provide enough jobs. If there is really large-scale unemployment, not to mention real estate, the entire society will collapse. Fortunately, due to the recent rapid growth in exports, the employment rate can remain stable. Then the problem is gradually limited to a large number of houses that cannot be sold. I think a more reasonable way is for the government to purchase these excess houses for social security. After that, the real estate developers use the money to repay their loans from the bank. This will ensure that real estate prices tend to stabilize and absorb the huge amount of unsold houses on the market.
 
LX1111 said:
So for now, it depends on whether we can provide enough jobs. If there is really large-scale unemployment, not to mention real estate, the entire society will collapse. Fortunately, due to the recent rapid growth in exports, the employment rate can remain stable. Then the problem is gradually limited to a large number of houses that cannot be sold. I think a more reasonable way is for the government to purchase these excess houses for social security. After that, the real estate developers use the money to repay their loans from the bank. This will ensure that real estate prices tend to stabilize and absorb the huge amount of unsold houses on the market.
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Houses being worth less than the loan is a ticking time-bomb though, it can go on for years and then suddenly boom, it all collapses. Could be something unforeseen like sanctions, due to various wars, or another factor. All options involving the government paying money are potentially hazardous as they increase national debt, which tends to lower currency value, cue inflation, as well as increasing interest rates on the money the government borrows due to a lower credit rating.

It's really not a situation you want.
 
BMD said:
Houses being worth less than the loan is a ticking time-bomb though, it can go on for years and then suddenly boom, it all collapses. Could be something unforeseen like sanctions, due to various wars, or another factor. All options involving the government paying money are potentially hazardous as they increase national debt, which tends to lower currency value, cue inflation, as well as increasing interest rates on the money the government borrows due to a lower credit rating.

It's really not a situation you want.
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At present, the measures that can be seen are to reduce the interest rate of existing housing debts from 5% to 3%. As you said, the housing debts of many people are actually higher than the actual housing prices. This can only be said to be an inevitable result of the decline in real estate prices, because real estate prices cannot maintain an upward trend forever. This problem can only be solved gradually in the long future.
As for the issue of government funds, I can only say that we are very lucky. The rapid growth of exports has ensured that the government has ample funds. At the same time, if the idea of the government buying unsold houses on the market is really implemented, it will not cost much money, because the government can recover the houses at cost price.
 
LX1111 said:
At present, the measures that can be seen are to reduce the interest rate of existing housing debts from 5% to 3%. As you said, the housing debts of many people are actually higher than the actual housing prices. This can only be said to be an inevitable result of the decline in real estate prices, because real estate prices cannot maintain an upward trend forever. This problem can only be solved gradually in the long future.
As for the issue of government funds, I can only say that we are very lucky. The rapid growth of exports has ensured that the government has ample funds. At the same time, if the idea of the government buying unsold houses on the market is really implemented, it will not cost much money, because the government can recover the houses at cost price.
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Well your debt has increased to 84% and is on a rapid upward trend. Your are also running an increasing and large deficit. These are not positive economic indicators.

China Government Debt to GDP

China recorded a Government Debt to GDP of 83.60 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2023. This page provides - China Government Debt To GDP - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
tradingeconomics.com tradingeconomics.com

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China Government Budget

China recorded a Government Budget deficit equal to 5.80 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2023. This page provides - China Government Budget - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
tradingeconomics.com tradingeconomics.com
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BMD said:
Well your debt has increased to 84% and is on a rapid upward trend. Your are also running an increasing and large deficit. These are not positive economic indicators.

China Government Debt to GDP

China recorded a Government Debt to GDP of 83.60 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2023. This page provides - China Government Debt To GDP - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
tradingeconomics.com tradingeconomics.com

View attachment 36569

China Government Budget

China recorded a Government Budget deficit equal to 5.80 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2023. This page provides - China Government Budget - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
tradingeconomics.com tradingeconomics.com
View attachment 36570
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BMD said:
Well your debt has increased to 84% and is on a rapid upward trend. Your are also running an increasing and large deficit. These are not positive economic indicators.

China Government Debt to GDP

China recorded a Government Debt to GDP of 83.60 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2023. This page provides - China Government Debt To GDP - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
tradingeconomics.com tradingeconomics.com

View attachment 36569

China Government Budget

China recorded a Government Budget deficit equal to 5.80 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2023. This page provides - China Government Budget - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
tradingeconomics.com tradingeconomics.com
View attachment 36570
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Most of these are debts borrowed by local governments from state-owned banks, and most of them can be resolved relatively well through negotiation, which is the so-called local debt. We have seen many such cases in the past few years. A city in Guizhou even announced that it would extend its debt for 20 years and only pay interest in the first ten years. Moreover, compared with Western countries, where the government debt ratio is over 100%, ours is still relatively normal.
 
LX1111 said:
Most of these are debts borrowed by local governments from state-owned banks, and most of them can be resolved relatively well through negotiation, which is the so-called local debt. We have seen many such cases in the past few years. A city in Guizhou even announced that it would extend its debt for 20 years and only pay interest in the first ten years. Moreover, compared with Western countries, where the government debt ratio is over 100%, ours is still relatively normal.
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All borrowed money is a liability of the government ultimately.

Relatively normal for now but heading in the wrong direction fast. The US debt ratio has at least levelled out.
 
LX1111 said:
I don't know the real number of these suspended buildings, but at least in my city, the government will provide a special fund to order real estate developers to complete those suspended buildings, which ensures that not so many people refuse to repay. Moreover, people are more inclined to buy completed buildings nowadays, which makes the real estate market still very depressed. At least it will not cause a huge banking crisis, which is obviously in line with the ideas of China's economic emperor, Liu He.
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Based on public announcement, the requirement is $4 trillion, but govt will only be releasing $40 billion.
 
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New Chinese nuclear attack submarine sank during construction, US defense official says​

WASHINGTON — Satellite imagery showed that China’s newest nuclear-powered attack submarine sank alongside a pier while under construction, a senior U.S. defense official said Thursday.
China’s first Zhou-class submarine sank likely between May and June, when satellite images showed cranes that would be necessary to lift it off the bottom of the river, said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to provide details about the submarine loss.


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May be chinese tested their sub a little bit too soon?
 
BMD said:
The stock market depends on investment, which is a function of past performance and predicted future performance, and the US is still where it's at as regards technological innovation in many fields.
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stock market in US has been more or less in positive territory due to the big 7, they have been responsible for nearly 50% of index gain.
 
jetray said:
stock market in US has been more or less in positive territory due to the big 7, they have been responsible for nearly 50% of index gain.
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Which is what you would expect given the relative sizes and the nature of the area, i.e. tech., AI etc.
 
The Chinese army has begun to equip 155-mm self-propelled howitzers PLZ-05, anti-drone protection called "Mangal". As protection, mesh screens are installed on top and on the sides of the self-propelled guns. This type of protection against drones is used by the Russian and Ukrainian armies and several other countries. The first self-propelled guns with such protection were noticed during artillery exercises of the ground forces of the Western Command of the Chinese army. The protection against drones was installed in response to the appearance of army units in India using drones. The PLZ-05 self-propelled gun was accepted into service in 2007 and is equipped with an automatic gun loading system created on the basis of the Russian self-propelled gun "Msta-S". The firing range of the PLZ-05 self-propelled gun with WS-35 ammunition is up to 100 km, it is worth noting, this is questioned by experts, the barrel length is 54 calibers.

 
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