Any info leaks about Our NSA meet with French Advisor?
Are we getting anything?
Rafale, Panther, MRTT: The underside of the future Indian mega contract
While the Minister of the Armed Forces, Florence Parly, and the CEO of Dassault Aviation are expected on 23 January in Athens for the final signature of the acquisition contract for the 18 Rafale aircraft destined for the Greek air force, the Elysée is currently conducting an unprecedented diplomatic offensive in India to obtain a 5 billion euro package deal. A package that would involve the order of 36 additional Rafales, 6 tanker aircraft, and more than a hundred Panther helicopters.
Diplomatic offensive
On the occasion of the 34th session of the Franco-Indian strategic dialogue, the Diplomatic Adviser to the President of the Republic, Emmanuel Bonne, and his Chief of Staff, Admiral Bernard Rogel, set the terms for a future "Package Deal" with New-Delhi, which would involve the acquisition of 36 additional Rafale aircraft, 6 A-330 MRTT transport and refuelling aircraft, 111 AS565 Panther multi-role helicopters, as well as the supply of 6 EPR engines by EDF for €38 billion.
Discussions in the defence field focused on two themes. Firstly, the strengthening of the strategic link between Paris and Delhi in order to counterbalance the growing Chinese influence in the Asia-Pacific area and the Persian Gulf, but also the participation of Indian forces in the European Maritime Awareness in the Strait of Hormuz, bilateral naval exercises with the UAE, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Australia.
The signing of an agreement on a common maritime surveillance capacity, access to the Djibouti military base, and an intensification of intelligence exchange. And finally, the help of French diplomacy to enable India to become a permanent member of the UN Security Council. But the concessions in the industrial field were just as spectacular. Thus the Elysée would have proposed to relocate to India 70% of the production line of the Rafale, 100% of that of its M-88 engine, and 100% of that of the multi-purpose Panther helicopter.
Understanding the need
Exchanges with the National Security Advisor, Ajit Kumar Doval, showed that the French proposals were in line with the Modi government's operational and economic priorities. The relocation of these assembly lines will indeed enable the Indian aeronautics industry to reach an international standard in terms of processes (quality, delivery times, training, automation, digitalisation) that it has not yet been able to achieve. But also to enable the Indian authorities to concretise their promises in terms of job creation, whereas the pandemic linked to Covid has had a severe impact on the Indian economy.
Thus, the acquisition of the Panthers would enable the Airbus Helicopters/Mahindra JV to launch its Global Hub India project to address the replacement market for several helicopter ranges (NUH, RSH, NMRH projects) and the needs in South East Asia, i.e. a budget of nearly 36 billion euros and the assurance of creating more than 10,000 jobs locally.
In addition, and at a time when China is on the verge of achieving strategic autonomy in terms of the motorisation of its military aircraft, Paris has put Safran's offer back on the table to co-develop the future engine for the LCA and the 5th generation AMCA aircraft. In terms of the operational schedule, the French initiative comes at just the right time. The Indian Navy, which is struggling to replace its 111 utility helicopters, is reportedly about to resort to a leasing offer. The Modi government has moreover released since last summer a budget of 2 billion euros to urgently acquire several air vectors and artillery systems to respond to Chinese pressure in Ladakh.
And if the 36 Rafale will constitute the bridgehead of the Indian border defence in the Himalayas from 2022, date of the end of the deliveries, these will probably not be sufficient. This is not only because of the attrition of the Indian Air Force's air capabilities, but above all because of the new Chinese capabilities in the zone (fifth generation J-20 aircraft, H-6K strategic bombers with KD-20 cruise missiles, revival of the nuclear air component, ballistic missiles, etc.).
However, during his annual press conference on Monday 4 October 2020, Air Chief Marshal Bhadauria declared that the Indian Air Force would study, once the acquisition of the 83 MK1A LCAs had been secured, the possibility of either continuing the MRFA (Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft) call for tenders for the acquisition of 114 fighter aircraft, or of ordering two additional Rafale squadrons under an inter-governmental agreement with France.
However, the 83 LCAs mentioned were signed on 13 January, and the MRFA programme, if it is maintained, will not meet the current operational emergency, as it is too time-consuming. It is for this reason that French industrialists have been preparing for several weeks for an additional order of Rafale with the utmost discretion.
"Silver Bullet"
This scenario is all the more likely as France remains a strategic partner because of its involvement in the Indian nuclear deterrent programme (Jaguar, Mirage 2000, etc.). And it is precisely this card that the Elysée is seeking to play. Here it is not just a question of allowing the Indian forces to extend their strike capabilities with additional Rafale aircraft, or tanker aircraft that will extend their range, but of incapacitating Pakistan, which is the most dynamic nuclear power in the world because of its production rate, which would give it an arsenal of 350 warheads in 2025.
According to Indian sources close to the dossier, France has undertaken not to renew its maintenance contracts for the Pakistani Mirage III/Vs, as well as for the Agosta attack submarines built by Naval Group and Thales. Two vital vectors for the country's nuclear triad. The strategic air force is made up of Mirage squadrons from Masroor base, whose delivery vehicles are tactical bombs and Ra'ad 2 cruise missiles, whose nuclear warheads would be stored in a bunker 5 km from the base.
As for the five Agosta diesel submarines, they should soon integrate the Babur 3 cruise missile, with conventional or nuclear warhead, with a range of 450 km. The last remarks of Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan against Emmanuel Macron would only have precipitated the French decision.