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When Leftist Media created a fictional divide between South India and Union of India


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When Leftist Media created a fictional divide between South India and Union of India
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As the anger against the central government was rising in AP, an article appeared on the controversial leftist website, The Wire in February, 2018. This article was trying to analyze just one term of reference, of the 15thFinance Commission (that will come into effect for the years 2020 – 2025), and came up with an atrocious byline – “It is becoming almost untenable for Tamil Nadu and Kerala to thrive in the Indian union as rational, self-interested sub-units.”
Popular Telegu actor, and Jana Sena party chief plugged this article and added his opinion as follows:

“Is the success of south Indian states going to be used against them by Union of India??? This article flags a genuine concern that population-based formula for sharing tax revenues between states & Center would hurt south Indian states.”

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This argument started gaining slow traction. TDP MP Mr. Murali Mohan made a statementthat 5 south Indian states wouldn’t mind separating from the country too. This has created enough outrage on Social media, but the source of this outrage wasn’t too well known then. News reports have also mentioned that Chandrababu Naidu made an argument that South Indian states are being penalized, in his 2 hour 20 minute speech in the state Assembly. I haven’t heard the speech yet, so I have no way of verifying it. TRP-centric TV media even ran programs that discussed “Pawan Kalyan & Kamal Haasan to end South India's slavery?”
On Sunday, March 11th, Eenadu, the largest circulated telugu newspaper (And 9th largest circulated in the country), put this argument on the front page. They interviewed Shri V. Bhaskar, secretary to the 13th Finance Commission. The headline screamed – “Damage to the spirit of Federalism”. Below is a snapshot of their coverage on this issue.
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What is the crux of the argument these folks are making?
  • The terms of reference of the 15thFinance Commission (FC) tell us that “The Commission shall use the population data of 2011 while making its recommendations.”
  • The Wire, and subsequent experts have argued that this is grossly unfair because this basically means all those states that have made progress on controlling population and increasing tax productivity will be at a loss.
  • By the same logic, states that have not bothered about implementing these measures will immensely gain.
The article in Wire claims that Tamil Nadu and Kerala are at a massive loss because of this. The article in Eenadu tells us that AP, TN, Kerala, West Bengal, Odisha and 7 other states stand to “lose” money, whilst UP, Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, J&K and the remaining states stand to “gain” money.
While reading the article in Eenadu, I was perplexed when Shri Bhaskar made the following statement:

“From the 7th FC to the 14th FC, all of them used the 1971 census data as reference”.
This is reconfirmed when we visit the Finance Commission website and look at the terms of reference of all the finance commissions. Up until the 6th finance commission, no specific guideline was given on which census data to be used. From the 7th FC (set up in 1977) onwards till the 14th FC (2015 to 2020), every single FC used 1971 data! Imagine using 1971 data for distribution model in 2015 – what explains this status quo for so many years? Isn’t it surprising that we used 1971 census data even 40 years later?

The issue of Tiny Fonts.
The Wire says that the change of criteria from 1971 to 2011 census “was done with such little fanfare and in fonts so tiny that it made one wonder if those who sought it wanted no one to take notice.”

Fonts so tiny? Such little fanfare? Please take a look at the Gazette notification. The font is the same across the entire document! The population criteria is placed at a similar place, as was done in all previous FC references. I, for one, fail to understand this penchant to dramatize non-existing problems?

Was any weightage given to 2011 census in 14th FC?
The Wire tells us that “… the 14th Finance Commission…. gave a weightage of 10% for Census 2011 data”. So is it fair enough to assume that the remaining 90% weightage was from the Census 1971 data?
Shri V. Bhaskar, Secretary of 13th Finance Commission told in his interview - “The 14thFC gave 17.5% weightage to the Census 1971 data”.

At first look, these numbers itself were very perplexing! Because the automatic assumption is that the remaining percentage is from the other census. It turns out that my assumption is wrong. The devolution formula has always included other aspects, outside of population. For example, this table picked up from a government website confirms such findings for 13th and 14th FC
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What about the other key argument – should performing states be penalized?

Both the articles in The Wire and in Eenadu have suggested that the performing states of South India are at a heavy loss. In fact the eenadu article even gave us the losses that the performing states would have entailed, if the 2011 census was considered for the 14thFC (whose period is 2015 – 2020). The table told us that AP would have lost ~24,000 crores, TN ~22,000 crores, Kerala and WB ~20,000 crores each and so on. It also told us that UP would have gained ~35000 crores, Bihar ~32000 crores etc.
And here’s where the chicanery of websites of The Wire, and the insincerity of bureaucrats (covered in Eenadu) come to the fore. Since most readers don’t bother to go and actually check the terms of 15th FC, they will automatically believe that there is no provision for rewarding the performing states.

Here is the truth. For the first time ever, the terms of reference for a finance commission included a number of “proposing measurable performance-based incentives for States”. A few earlier commissions considered fiscal discipline for incentives, but never has an entire section been dedicated to this.
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There are a total of 9 parameters under which it has been recommended that performance can be measured. Previous FC’s for sure did not have so many parameters explicitly mentioned. The second parameter recommended is “Efforts and Progress made in moving towards replacement rate of population growth”.
The Wire article told us that – “Some experts have argued that having a weightage factor for dropping fertility rates is a possibility.” Possibility? They have been mandated to consider dropping fertility rates!
In his interview, Shri V. Bhaskar has told us that a good “Replacement Fertility rate” should be less than 2.1. And there are many states that are currently higher than this. The terms of reference clearly indicates that states that have moved towards this rate should be considered for incentives.

The entire premise of the North India – South India argument was based on a lie that states that have made progress in terms of containing their population will be heavily penalized. The truth is that they will in fact get incentivized!

Not just that, please take a look at other parameters too. States that have done good in GST, Ease of doing business, grants for local bodies, sanitation, waste management etc – will all get incentivized. This is the first time that such measurable parameters have been placed in the FC terms of reference. The 15th FC is currently accepting suggestions too - shouldn’t we be spending our time in giving these inputs to the FC?
What then explains the deliberate attempt to spread such lies and mis-information? What the Wire published got mainstreamed into the politics of a state in India. A lie travels far before the truth wakes up. It is one thing to cast aspersions on methodology of a commission, or give suggestions based on available information. It is a whole different ball game to arrive at dangerous conclusions based on half assumptions! A ball game that many sections of media are perfecting!

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed within this article are the personal opinions of the author. MyIndMakers is not responsible for the accuracy, completeness, suitability, or validity of any information on this article. All information is provided on an as-is basis. The information, facts or opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of MyindMakers and it does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.

When Leftist Media created a fictional divide between South India and Union of India
 
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Karnataka Assembly Elections 2018: Here Are The Numbers To Watch Out For

by Venu Gopal Narayanan


Snapshot
  • While parties play caste and religion cards, here are some number crunching to chew on.
The clanging of caste and religion cymbals marks the approach of another legislative assembly election in Karnataka next month (May). While number-crunchers dive into their demographic tables, and journalists fall over each other to collect succulent sound-bites, political statements are scrutinised from a hundred angles and new charts are plotted to answer a few simple questions: Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) be now reunited under B S Yeddyurappa once more, secure the popular mandate they lost so painfully and comically in 2013? Will Karnataka’s Congress Chief Minister Siddaramaiah be successful in retaining the party’s majority – something no party has managed to do since 1978? Will we see at least a partial resurgence of Deve Gowda’s Janata Dal (Secular) or JDS, or will the party be relegated to the ‘others’ column? Will any single party get past the magical halfway mark of 113 seats?

And yet, the degenerative nature of Indian electoral practices of the past half century, highlighted starkly and tragically by vote-bank politics, forces serious analysts to ask a few, more basic, questions: Which way will different communities vote, and to what extent? Who gets the Muslim vote? Who gets the non-Lingayat other backward class (OBC) vote? Will the Vokkaligas stick with the JDS? How much is the Dalit vote?

There is something deeply abhorrent about identity politics, which makes the sentient man shrink in revulsion. It is divisive, immoral and wholly counterproductive to the needs of society. Yet, the run-up to this forthcoming round of provincial elections in Karnataka, for example, has been marked by a Congress demand for a state flag (don’t ask why!), the usual anti-Hindi rhetoric, and a potentially fatal move to have the Lingayat community – firm and principal supporters of the BJP – notified as a separate religion. No matter, that the ‘Linga’ in ‘Lingayat’ is a symbol of Shiva. Not a word about the rusting of the fabled ‘steel frame’, or any plans for its refurbishment; not a word about the fiscal deficit; not a word about the decline in growth rates; not a word on investment. Perhaps, nothing will change until a new era of enlightenment dawns upon our electorate.

At times, it beggars belief, as to why the Congress would ever stride down this ugly path. But with the Karnataka legislative elections due in May, it is equally important to understand how these efforts are being played out, and with what consequences. And, believe it or not, much of this can be demonstrated in a single plot of party vote-share versus seats won:


The data shows that it is far more difficult for Congress to win elections in Karnataka, than it is for either the BJP or the Janata Dal – as evidenced by the right shift of the blue, Congress curve. Vote for vote and seat for seat, the Congress lags far behind both the BJP and the JDS in this regard.

To make matters worse for the Congress, there are other problems: An abrupt upward or downward shift in seats won, for roughly the same vote share, indicates either a multi-party contest, or, the bulk shift of community votes, or both. For example, for a 2 per cent vote shift, the number of seats they won changes by 57. That is a huge number, reflective of the inherent narrowness of their victories and losses. Perhaps, it is precisely such numerical sensitivity to fortunes, which decides the tone and tenor of their electoral campaigns.

The BJP, on the other hand, shows a more even distribution of data points, more linearity of correlation between votes received and seats won. So too, the JDS, although it has not been a natural party of governance for some decades now, limping in the shadow of Gowda, who is still widely respected across the state.

The uneven range of results for the Congress, in the 35-40 per cent vote share band, points to more uncertainties; and these in turn, to the dire necessity for ensuring that identity politics is played out successfully. Without this, the party has rarely achieved the requisite success.

This point becomes more acutely prominent when the spectrum shifts from a multi-party contest to a predominantly two-party one. The more three-cornered the contest, the more the Muslim vote moves away from the Congress, and in turn, lowering the number of seats it gets. On the other hand, those elections which tend to squeeze out the JDS, like the ones to the Lok Sabha in 2009 and 2014, exemplify the Congress’s inherent disadvantage in a straight two-way fight. This is a nuanced point, and not at all without irony: the Congress does better in a three-way contest, than when it is primarily up against the BJP. An incongruity? Perhaps, but that is what the numbers show. And that is precisely why the BJP is yet to break into Old Mysore region – the stronghold of the JDS.

But can the Wodeyar wall hold back a saffron wave; might things change? A pointer to the probability of this is hinted at, in the results of the 2014 Lok Sabha elections: in Hassan parliamentary constituency, which was won by former prime minister Deve Gowda, the BJP came second in Kadur assembly segment. Of course, the BJP also polled only 5,000-odd votes in a couple of other assembly segments, reminding analysts that wishful thinking has no place in this business! But, in Chamarajanagar parliamentary constituency, retained by the Congress, and Chief Minister Siddaramaiah’s home turf, the BJP came a close second in all eight assembly segments, pushing the JDS vote down from 11 per cent in 2008, to around 3 per cent in some of the segments. So, absurd as it may seem, data analysis suggests that the more Congress poaches from the JDS, the more harm it does to its own chances!

There is a social explanation to this: in Old Mysore region, the more the Congress takes away the Muslim vote from the JDS camp, the more the traditional JDS Vokkaliga, OBC and Dalit supporters would be forced to vote for the BJP in counter.

Coming to Northern Karnataka: both old Maratha and Nizam dominions (still quaintly referred to as Bombay-Karnataka and Hyderabad-Karnataka respectively) have provided the bulk of the BJP’s success thus far. And it is precisely in these regions, that the BJP was nearly wiped out in 2013, as a result of the party being split by Yeddyurappa. He took away a good 10 per cent of the vote share, bringing it down from 34 per cent in 2008 to just 20 per cent in 2013; the other 4 per cent shifted allegiance, disillusioned, and the BJP’s tally came down from 110 in 2008, to 40. Nevertheless, the party appears to have refurbished its state unit, especially in these areas, to register a record 43 per cent vote in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections (equal to 132 assembly seats).

Equally interesting is the ‘others’ vote – a long-standing political tradition in Karnataka, which sometimes eats up as much as 20 per cent of the vote share. This eclectic brigade usually comprises rebels, splinter parties, vestigial units, misfits, and maverick independents, and they often have a decisive outcome on the results. Their impact ranges from 12-23 per cent, and can take away as many as 25-35 seats from the kitty. But, historical data also shows that when the ‘others’ vote share shrinks, the beneficiary is the BJP – as happened in 2004 and 2008. This is detailed in the table below:

Now, while the BJP lost in most assembly constituencies in coastal Karnataka in the 2013 provincial elections, incredibly, they swept every single assembly segment here in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls – yes, every single one from Karwar south to Mangalore. This was, of course, on the back of a skillful rapprochement between the BJP and Yeddyurappa, effected by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and was a most commendable achievement. But it remains to be seen, if the 2018 assembly elections will mimic the 2014 general elections results – and if yes, then to what extent.

History tells us that much mimicry is probably not to be expected, except in the noise and theatre of an election. Thus, in conclusion, we may seek to answer the questions we posed at the beginning:

  • The Congress needs the Muslim, Kuruba OBC and Dalit votes now, more than ever. A spate of defections from the JDS, including sitting Muslim MLAs, has been engineered by them to this end. In Mallikarjun Kharge, head of the Congress in the Lok Sabha, the Congress may rightly boast of having the tallest Dalit politician in the state. Siddaramaiah, a Kuruba, closes out the third apex of this potent triangle.
  • Unfortunately, this engineering is happening primarily in Old Mysore state, which, with around 70 seats, and only a peripheral BJP presence, is the swing region of focus in the coming election. Here, a shift of the Muslim vote from the JDS to the Congress will be mirrored by a shift of the non-Vokkaliga Hindu vote towards the BJP.
  • Of particular interest will be Chamarajanagar area – the southern corner of the state in the Kerala-Tamil Nadu-Karnataka tri-junction. With a strong Dalit and tribal population base, this is of course, core Siddaramaiah territory. Nevertheless, 2013 threw up some curious results in these eight constituencies: both Yeddyurappa’s splinter Karnataka Janata Paksha (KJP) and a fractured BJP did surprisingly well in some seats, even if they didn’t win any. Question is – how will a reinvigorated BJP fare here in 2018?
  • The BJP won only 40 seats in 2013, on a 20 per cent vote share, but by and large, they won big where they did. In a number of seats in North Karnataka, the margin of Congress victory was less than the KJP vote; meaning, that they won in these cases only because the BJP vote base split almost down the middle. The 2014 results demonstrate that this re-amalgamation appears to have been successfully effected by the BJP.
  • The BJP is expected to perform exceedingly well in the reserved tribal constituencies.
  • There will be a Modi factor at work, drawing OBC votes state-wide to the BJP. Quantification is not possible presently, since no reliable pre-poll surveys have been released yet. But this effect may conservatively be assumed to be in the range of an additional 1-2 per cent vote share, for working purposes.
  • Former Congress chief minister S M Krishna’s defection to the BJP last year, was the beginning of the party’s efforts to gain entry into the Old Mysore region. He is a Vokkaliga from Mandya district, and will help in balancing perceptions that the BJP is Lingayat-dominated.
  • The JDS vote share will reduce; partly because of Congress machinations, and partly because of the subsequent counter-reaction to such efforts at consolidation of the Muslim vote. This is pure polarisation at work, and is expected to increase the Congress vote share. Unfortunately, it will not be enough to offset the anti-incumbency effect (which has manifested itself in Karnataka since 1978, in every assembly election).
  • Every percentage of vote share that the Congress loses, means that it will lose twice as many seats as either the BJP or JDS would have. Conversely, every percentage point gained by the Congress, means that it would win only half as many extra seats as the other two parties would have. This is the principal deficiency of the Congress, as illustrated in the main chart, which shows that the party needs more votes to get the same number of seats as other parties. To reiterate: For example, the Congress will need 44 per cent of the vote share under present circumstances to win 120 seats. But, the BJP would require only 37 per cent to hit the same mark; and the JDS even less – 35 per cent.
  • Consequently, a 2-3 per cent anti-incumbency factor, added to the return of the BJP’s traditional votes share of 34 per cent in 2013 (BJP plus KJP), and a 1-2 per cent Modi factor, is a strong possibility which cannot be ignored. Mathematically, this adds up to a 37-39 per cent vote share for the BJP, which, even in a fierce three-way contest, translates on our curve to 118-125 seats.
  • And yes, the clanging of the cymbals will be deafening this May!
Original Link: Karnataka Assembly Elections 2018: Here Are The Numbers To Watch Out For
 
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1. In 2013 karnataka election BJP got 40 seats, KJP got 6 seats(Yedurappa), BSRCP got 4 seats (sri ramulu) = so total 50 seats

2. Because of these 3 went separate they lost 37 seats ( Ramdurg, Terdal, Devar Hippargi, Afzalpur, Gurmitkal, Glbarg Rural, Bhalki, Devadurga, Lingsugur, Shirahatti, Navalgund, Kundgol, Hubli Dharward East, Kumta, Bhatkal, hangal, Byadgi, hegaribommanahalli, Harapanahalli, Mayakonda, Channagiri, Shimoga rural, Shimoga, Tirthahalli, Tarikere, Chiknayakanhalli, Tiptur, Tumkur city, Krishnaraga, Kollegal, Muddebihal, Yadgir, Basavakalyan, Sindhanur, Maski, Kanakagiri, Yelburga,)

3. And also corruption issues, reddy brothers issue, anti incumbency factor......etc

4. 2014 general election BJP got 17 seats, when these 3 joined again. if you translate this in to mla seat (17 x 8 = 136)

5. In 2013 election there was no amit shah, RSS booth level management and Modi factor.....

6. considering all these things this time BJP will cross the majority mark....

7. If lingayat issue back fires ( with in lingayat and other OBC got angry because of this election gimmick) they will get more than 140 seats......

this is my prediction......
 
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The party which has won in the state of Karnataka has lost at the centre and vice versa .It's one of those inexplicable quirks of history. It's time the trend changed . Would love to see the BJP win a majority in Karnataka and the forthcoming central elections.
 
_Anonymous_ said:
The party which has won in the state of Karnataka has lost at the centre and vice versa .It's one of those inexplicable quirks of history. It's time the trend changed . Would love to see the BJP win a majority in Karnataka and the forthcoming central elections.
Click to expand...
IT WILL see the attached picture of the last election

in the first 2 kjp and bjp could have won if combined

and in the last one bjp , kjp and bsrcp could have won if joined byadgi.jpglingusugur seat.jpgsindhnur seat.jpg
 
_Anonymous_ said:
The party which has won in the state of Karnataka has lost at the centre and vice versa .It's one of those inexplicable quirks of history. It's time the trend changed . Would love to see the BJP win a majority in Karnataka and the forthcoming central elections.
Click to expand...
We are better off with regional parties in south. BJP is just another congress party with different name with different quirks. They hardly have shown any maturity in governance. There are as many baboons in BJP as there are apes in congress.
 
Five rooms, personal cook, unrestricted access to visitors for Sasikala in jail: RTI activist N Murthy
A Right to Information (RTI) query by activist N Murthy has revealed damaging information for Tamil Nadu jail authorities over ‘facilities’ provided to the deceased AIADMK leader Jayalalithaa’s close aide VK Sasikala in jail. The RTI reveals that Sasikala, who is currently serving a four-year jail term in disproportionate assets case in a Bengaluru prison, has been given VIP facilities such as personal cook, unrestricted access to visitors among others.

“There were allegations against jail authority that they had allotted five rooms to Sasikala. She was entitled to one room as was given instead. In other four rooms, female convicts were staying until 14 Feb 2017. Once Sasikala reached, they were sent out and all 5 rooms were given to her," Murthy said.

D Roopa, who was then deputy inspector general of prisons, first raised the issue on July 13, 2017. She alleged that the jailed Sasikala and her aids were given preferential treatment in the prison amid allegations that Rs 2 crore were paid in bribes to an official for the same.

"There's no provision for cooking food in prison but the jail authorities deputed one convict to cook for Sasikala. In her case, system was ignored. People used to come in groups, go to her room directly and stay for 3-4 hrs. There was violation of rules,” the RTI activist said.

Karnataka government ordered a probe into the allegations shortly after. Roopa flagged the issue in a report to her superior, DGP (Prisons) H S Sathyanarayana Rao. Then Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah announced a "high-level probe" into the allegations. She named retired DGP Sathyanarayana Rao for giving preferential treatment to the jailed Jayalalithaa’s aide.

After Roopa’s report, retired DGP HN Sathyanarayana Rao filed a Rs 20 crore defamation case against her for making “baseless allegations” against him when he was the in charge of the prisons department.
Five rooms, personal cook, unrestricted access to visitors for Sasikala in jail: RTI activist N Murthy | India News
 

@Guynextdoor

What an ordeal poor Kappuswamy's facing? Look the heavy price he's paying for your sake and all the people of Karnataka? He could've minted money. That's probably why he's breaking down often. Heavy lies the head that weareth the crown. Wonder when will the misery end?
 
_Anonymous_ said:

@vstol Jockey ; @RATHORE ; @Bali78 ; @BlackOpsIndia ;
Click to expand...

Infuriating, but perhaps necessary. Now the ball is in the court of Andhra Hindus. Do they want to keep fighting amongst themselves as Kapus, Kammas, Reddys etc, and keep voting for corrupt minority appeasing frauds like C-babu and Jagan, taking any sort of treatment lying down; or do they want to stand up and fight for themselves together, as Hindus.

My prediction is they will be the third state in the South to come to this realization, behind Karnataka and Telangana. In Kerala, BJP's voteshare is growing, but Hindus still haven't fully woken up & consolidated, nor are enough Christians in the BJP corner yet (here BJP will have to walk the fine line between accepting Christians while doggedly opposing the evangelical conversion mafia) - though in the long run, rising Islamist aggression & dadagiri will probably ensure this too.

What will happen in Tamil Nadu remains to be seen though.
 
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_Anonymous_ said:
The Hindu Magazine (@TheHinduMag) Tweeted:
This extract from a new book on the Brahminical colonisation of Kerala shows how the Onam myth is really creative resistance against an unjust invasion @TheHinduBooks
@TheHinduMag

Welcome home, Mahabali: An excerpt from ‘Antigod’s Own Country: A Short History of Brahminical Colonisation of Kerala’ (
https://twitter.com/x/status/1168780270935261184
)
Click to expand...

Onam as a new year festival may have predated the arrival of Namboodiri Brahmins in Kerala. Ancient sangam literature refers to the Onam festival being celebrated in old Chera country. How this festival got associated with the puranic tale of Bali, grandson of Asura king Prahlada, and him losing his kingdom to the Dwarf brahmin Vamana is interestingly. Perhaps the Namboodiris, who invented this association, wanted to convey a memory of the shift of political control in Kerala...

P:S - BJP greeting the people of Kerala on Vamana Jayanti is another example of classic self goal. The whole controversy was funny and quite illustrative of the BJP's failure to connect with the traditions of the Hindus of Kerala.
 
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