Sukhoi Su-30MKI

Shouldn't read PKS in order to maintain sanity.

TRISHUL: Super Su-30MKI: From Air Dominance To Air Supremacy
Come 2012 the first batch of 50 Sukhoi Su-30MKI multi-role combat aircraft (MRCA), which were delivered to the Indian Air Force (IAF) between 2001 and 2003, will be shipped back to Russia’s IRKUT Corp in Irkutsk where they will be refurbished and upgraded from into formidable air supremacy MRCAs (to be called Super Su-30MKI), and delivered back to the IAF starting 2014. The upgrades, costing Rs109.2 billion, will include the strengthening and service life-extension of the Su-30MKI airframes; and installation of uprated turbofans, new glass cockpit avionics, mission management avionics, and integrated defensive aids suites. This will be followed by another batch of 42 new-build Su-30MKIs to be subjected to identical upgrades, with deliveries of these aircraft beginning in 2015 and ending in 2018.
 
Was very clear with what I wrote, I was mentioning procurements. Not refurbishments, upgrades, etc. unless as usual one wants to see what one wishes to see.
 
In spite of all those grand plans & grander statements by the who's who in the Ministry of Defense, the IAF , ADA, HAL, etc we're still running a huge deficit of fighter aircraft given the ones we've retired from service & will be retiring say from 2010-2025. Add most of the Jaguars to this list too for reasons known.
It doesn't matter. Fighter procurements are based on requirements, not what's available at the moment. Force structure does not need more heavy air superiority fighters.

Was very clear with what I wrote, I was mentioning procurements. Not refurbishments
That's even worse.
 
Su-30 MKI Crash List

Its 9 crashes as of today.

April 30, 2009: An IAF pilot killed and another seriously injured in the first-ever Su-30 MKI fighter jet crash near Jaisalmer in Rajasthan.

November 30, 2009: A Sukhoi fighter jet crashed during a routine training sortie south-west of Pokhran firing ranges in Rajasthan. The two pilots, Wing Commander Srivastava and Flight Lieutenant Arora, bailed out safely.

December 13, 2011: A Sukhoi jet crashed soon after taking off from Lohegaon airbase near Pune but both the pilots managed to bail out safely. The aircraft was on a routine mission.

February 19, 2013: A Sukhoi aircraft crashed in Jaisalmer but both the pilots bailed out safely. There was no loss of life or damage to property on the ground.

October 14, 2014: A Sukhoi jet crashed at a village near Pune. Both the pilot and the co-pilot were unharmed.

May 19, 2015: A Sukhoi fighter crashed at Laokhowa in Nagaon district of Assam with both the pilot and co-pilot ejecting safely. It was on a routine sortie from Tezpur Air Force station and lost radar connection and crashed thereafter.

March 15, 2017: A Sukhoi aircraft crashed in Rajasthan's Barmer district, injuring three villagers. Both the pilots ejected safely from the plane.

Jul 14, 2018 : An IAF statement said a two-seater SU-30 MKI which took off from Tezpur airbase today as part of a two-aircraft formation, lost radar and radio contact with the IAF's air traffic control at 11.10 am.

Aug 9, 2019: An Indian Air Force fighter jet crashed Thursday night in Assam. The air force jet that crashed was a Sukhoi Su-30. The Su-30 MKI fighter jet was on a routine training mission when it crashed in the paddy field in the Milanpur area and burst into flames at around 8:30 pm.


12 more to be ordered soon.

Not happening.
One more crash did happen during testing of a new aircraft at HAL.
 
It doesn't matter. Fighter procurements are based on requirements, not what's available at the moment. Force structure does not need more heavy air superiority fighters.


That's even worse.
Well, the way I see it both you & me would be around the next few years, touchwood. Let's see what we shall see then.
 
There's a further 12-18 in the pipeline to make up for attrition. Post which we're expected to sign the package for the Super Sukhoi upgrade. There's a lot of speculation that once the upgrade package is signed we may go in for another 60-70 odd jets in the upgraded configuration apart from getting such kits & subjecting most if not all the remaining 262 jets here to the same upgrade. So, we're talking about 350 jets here.
At the most we will see 2 years worth of production capacity. Means 24-28 aircrafts. That means maybe 1 extra squadron.

We have enough heavyweight air superiority fighters now, we need to upgrade them thoroughly now.

The focus will be on LCA and Rafale tranche buys depending upon our finances.
 
At the most we will see 2 years worth of production capacity. Means 24-28 aircrafts. That means maybe 1 extra squadron.

We have enough heavyweight air superiority fighters now, we need to upgrade them thoroughly now.

The focus will be on LCA and Rafale tranche buys depending upon our finances.
I've no dispute with your assessment. Pls explain then how would we make up the depleted squadron numbers especially since IAF is holding up 42 squadrons ( to be achieved by 2030 ? 2040? ) as the Holy Grail in terms of sheer numbers we need to acquire & maintain to fight the mythical 2.5 front wars.
 
I've no dispute with your assessment. Pls explain then how would we make up the depleted squadron numbers especially since IAF is holding up 42 squadrons ( to be achieved by 2030 ? 2040? ) as the Holy Grail in terms of sheer numbers we need to acquire & maintain to fight the mythical 2.5 front wars.
42 now in my opinion is a really very old figure based on old situation and assessments. We need a new white paper on possible external/internal/digital threats and possible attainable force levels to defeat them.

Coming back to numbers, the priority for short term is to arrest the further drop in numbers. 4 Mig21 squadrons and 1 Jaguar squadron will go out within next 5 years. Add to it, 2 Mig21 and 3 Mig27 squadrons lost in last 2 years.

That's according to our finances , with 4 squadrons of MK1A , 36 + 36 Rafales should cover up by 2028. Meanwhile rest goes on to upgrade the Su30MKI, procurement of tankers and AWACS.

Post 2028, we will have 170-180 fighters going out, Mig29 , Mirage 2000 and Jaguar DARIN3, that's where additional Rafales (if MMRCA 2 is cancelled) , possible off the self Su57 batches and MWF comes into figure.

Only after 2035 we can think of increasing the numbers anywhere near 40.

But 280 Su30MKI, 120 Tejas, 72 Rafales , supported by 180 Jaguar/Mig29/Mirage2000s is a fair enough mix of force by 2028.

That's 650+ fighter jets we are talking about.

Pakistan now has around 350 fighters and China has nearly 400 around tibet or slightly further away.

We can match up with them imo.
 
I've no dispute with your assessment. Pls explain then how would we make up the depleted squadron numbers especially since IAF is holding up 42 squadrons ( to be achieved by 2030 ? 2040? ) as the Holy Grail in terms of sheer numbers we need to acquire & maintain to fight the mythical 2.5 front wars.

Su30 is not the way to catch up with numbers.
It may save on capex but it is brutal on opex and then it requires two pilots instead of one for all other jets in IAF. Extra su30 means tiding up both more human resources and opex for the long haul.
 
But 280 Su30MKI, 120 Tejas, 72 Rafales , supported by 180 Jaguar/Mig29/Mirage2000s is a fair enough mix of force by 2028.

That's 650+ fighter jets we are talking about.

Also include the effect of systems like s400! Which will essentially reduce the burdern on CAP aircrafts as it can monitor a large area and shoot down Pakistani planes within their own aerospace.
It essentially acts as force multiplier to combat jets.

The only way to make up numbers is the success of mwf on time and then AMCA. They could have 2 more sq of mk1a if numbers are increases right now. Payment for them could be later.

Looking at enemies Pakistan's numbers won't rise as it is in severe crunch but Chinese numbers will grow faster than anticipated from here to 2030 and beyond. To meet up to Chinese numbers we will need at least two parallel fighter production lines running.

Perhaps that's why they are looking at orca too along with mwf. AMCA will take time .
 
42 now in my opinion is a really very old figure based on old situation and assessments. We need a new white paper on possible external/internal/digital threats and possible attainable force levels to defeat them.
Especially when all the fighters are multirole capable.
 
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Especially when all the fighters are multirole capable.
Correct me if I'm wrong but aren't the Jags, Mirages, MiG- 29s , the MKIs, the Tejas & the Rafales all multirole? You could extend it to the MiG-21 as well except perhaps the MiG - 23s & MiG - 27s.
 
42 now in my opinion is a really very old figure based on old situation and assessments. We need a new white paper on possible external/internal/digital threats and possible attainable force levels to defeat them.

Coming back to numbers, the priority for short term is to arrest the further drop in numbers. 4 Mig21 squadrons and 1 Jaguar squadron will go out within next 5 years. Add to it, 2 Mig21 and 3 Mig27 squadrons lost in last 2 years.

That's according to our finances , with 4 squadrons of MK1A , 36 + 36 Rafales should cover up by 2028. Meanwhile rest goes on to upgrade the Su30MKI, procurement of tankers and AWACS.

Post 2028, we will have 170-180 fighters going out, Mig29 , Mirage 2000 and Jaguar DARIN3, that's where additional Rafales (if MMRCA 2 is cancelled) , possible off the self Su57 batches and MWF comes into figure.

Only after 2035 we can think of increasing the numbers anywhere near 40.

But 280 Su30MKI, 120 Tejas, 72 Rafales , supported by 180 Jaguar/Mig29/Mirage2000s is a fair enough mix of force by 2028.

That's 650+ fighter jets we are talking about.

Pakistan now has around 350 fighters and China has nearly 400 around tibet or slightly further away.

We can match up with them imo.
While I've no dispute again with this theory of yours, it doesn't hold good when dealing with the Chinese. And if the Chinese open up a front, you can bet we'd be facing the Pakistanis too while the converse may not be true. Given the sheer numbers both sides especially the Chinese bring to bear on us, we require adequate numbers to combat those numbers fielded against us. It goes without saying that the quality of these fighter aircraft matters too but quantity has a quality of it's own. Now whether we go down the route of leasing those aircrafts or procuring it is a different matter altogether.
 
While I've no dispute again with this theory of yours, it doesn't hold good when dealing with the Chinese. And if the Chinese open up a front, you can bet we'd be facing the Pakistanis too while the converse may not be true. Given the sheer numbers both sides especially the Chinese bring to bear on us, we require adequate numbers to combat those numbers fielded against us. It goes without saying that the quality of these fighter aircraft matters too but quantity has a quality of it's own. Now whether we go down the route of leasing those aircrafts or procuring it is a different matter altogether.
Realistically we need 50 squadrons atleast to do a two front war. At this point we should focus on making the tejas the backbone of our airforce instead of the su 30. For every single su 30 we should have two Tejas mk1/1a/2. Since Tejas was designed to replace the mig 21 I wouldn't be surprised if we will use similar tactics like the one we used on 27 th feb to shootdown the f 16. The only problem being that the tejas doesn't have the intercepting speed of the mig 21 even though it's superior to it on all other parameters. I hope mk2 can go upto speeds of mach 2-2.2.
 
Realistically we need 50 squadrons atleast to do a two front war. At this point we should focus on making the tejas the backbone of our airforce instead of the su 30. For every single su 30 we should have two Tejas mk1/1a/2. Since Tejas was designed to replace the mig 21 I wouldn't be surprised if we will use similar tactics like the one we used on 27 th feb to shootdown the f 16. The only problem being that the tejas doesn't have the intercepting speed of the mig 21 even though it's superior to it on all other parameters. I hope mk2 can go upto speeds of mach 2-2.2.
Top speed is not a priority now a days actually. If a fighter is able to be 1.2-1.4 with a load out with afterburners, it's not bad. It's decent.

If it's supersonic without afterburners, that's some major advantage we are talking about.

Mach 1.6 with A2A load tested and theoretically possible upto mach 1.8, not bad by any standards.
 
While I've no dispute again with this theory of yours, it doesn't hold good when dealing with the Chinese. And if the Chinese open up a front, you can bet we'd be facing the Pakistanis too while the converse may not be true. Given the sheer numbers both sides especially the Chinese bring to bear on us, we require adequate numbers to combat those numbers fielded against us. It goes without saying that the quality of these fighter aircraft matters too but quantity has a quality of it's own. Now whether we go down the route of leasing those aircrafts or procuring it is a different matter altogether.
Dealing with the Chinese, till we have even our planned requirements fulfilled in Navy and Airforce, we are more than capable enough to hold onto Chinese and beat any advancing threat. Where Chinese actually have a huge advantage, which we still kind of ignore is there inventory of very large number of long range artillery, cruise missiles and SRBM/MRBMs across the Tibet. Compared to thousands of their cruise missiles, we have hundreds of Brahmos , that won't work. We need something like Klub missile and Iskander missile combo in very large numbers across our frontiers against China.

Our biggest advantage against China is American Forces in South Korea and Japan, it's dispute with Taiwan and it's issues in SCS. That ties up pretty much everything front line there only.
well PKS started predicting many things wrong that's why he lost many viewers.
You can rely on him for correct info on anything that has already happened or is happening or if he has pics. Rest, you take your chances.
 
Dealing with the Chinese, till we have even our planned requirements fulfilled in Navy and Airforce, we are more than capable enough to hold onto Chinese and beat any advancing threat. Where Chinese actually have a huge advantage, which we still kind of ignore is there inventory of very large number of long range artillery, cruise missiles and SRBM/MRBMs across the Tibet. Compared to thousands of their cruise missiles, we have hundreds of Brahmos , that won't work. We need something like Klub missile and Iskander missile combo in very large numbers across our frontiers against China.

Our biggest advantage against China is American Forces in South Korea and Japan, it's dispute with Taiwan and it's issues in SCS. That ties up pretty much everything front line there only.

Frankly, more than the platforms & the armaments they'd deploy against India , some of which you've described above, there's a school of thought - one of whose biggest proponents is that Trojan horse Pravin Sawhney, who brings in cyber warfare as a major tool China would use to defeat India without a shot being fired.

Now we both are aware that in the field of conventional weapons while China does enjoy a superiority, it's by no means an overwhelming superiority - the kind which can result in annexation of Arunachal Pradesh or even a repeat of 1962.

Yet we both also know, that in the field of cyber warfare we're taking baby steps while the Chinese having been in this field for the past 3 decades & has probably the best cyberforce behind the US.

Let's focus on those areas where we know we're lacking & try to bring them to a level where our forces can certainly deter the Chinese from getting any bright ideas instead of trying to match them bullet for bullet.

I don't accept theories about only the Western Theatre Command ( WTC) being engaged in a conflict with India. If ever such a conflict breaks out, China will deploy it's entire might against India which includes men & material from other theatres too & there's nothing the either US or Japan or Taiwan or any other nation can or will do anything about .

Pls do bear in mind that it's China which claims territories from other nations in the ECS & SCS & not the other way around. It's China which has waged war to prosecute it's claims with it's neighbours & not the other way round. Which in turn means the Chinese don't have to fear their neighbors , even those with whom they share an adversarial relationship. This also means a token force to guard their borders in these areas will suffice .

In the light of the above info & assuming China & India go to war, what makes you think the US is going to open a new front in either the ECS or the SCS?

To conclude, many experts have opined that this decade - 2020-30 is the last window of opportunity for the Chinese to prosecute their claims against India. Our secondary strike ability isn't mature given that we field a small number of SSBN's , the numbers insignificant & accuracy of our SLBMs is suspect. Land based second strike capabilities are too erratic to be considered, not withstanding our modest nuclear arsenal.

Our armed forces at present are bloated, pre occupied with internal security duties, aren't optimally armed, are organised in a WW-2 type organisational set up with equally dated war fighting abilities & strategic mindset.

Change is in the air but for the effects to be seen & felt on the ground, it'd take a good decade if not more.To add to it, most of our critical defensive & offensive equipments are of foreign origin , indigenization of which is an on going process but is also an excruciatingly slow affair.
 
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Since I am not in mood to right long posts I'll simply poke holes in your theory so that we have a better understanding of the threats we face.
Yet we both also know, that in the field of cyber warfare we're taking baby steps while the Chinese having been in this field for the past 3 decades & has probably the best cyberforce behind the US.

We have been hearing about chinese hacking of USA military data including f35 data. But in almost all cases Chinese agents( read Chinese engineer / scientist/ professor) breached the security protocol directly or provided pathway to it. But china lacks similar penetration in India . It won't magically be able to attack air gaped servers unless of course we have Chinese spies within in huge numbers.
China will deploy it's entire might against India which includes men & material from other theatres

Geography of tibet doesn't permit such a mobilization. Too many rivesrs , too many rivers , too much height , too rare air with lack of oxygen and literally nothing to eat. Supply lines will be way to long to protect and sustain. And indians will be he'll bent to take out all the bridges in route.
there's nothing the either US or Japan or Taiwan or any other nation can or will do anything about

True they might not! And yet Taiwan might take this opportunity to declare independence . Japan might see Chinese aggression against India as a future threat to itself and might go nuclear. USA even if doesn't interfere directly will wait in wings for a wounded India to join a nato type treaty.
China will have to take all that in consideration.
Land based second strike capabilities are too erratic to be considered, not withstanding our modest nuclear arsenal.

Our nuclear arsenal is half as big as China and china have to secure credible deterrence against USA too.
Our land back strike is robust. Agni iii , iv and v all are deployed . But the larger question is this will Beijing risk a nuclear war to gain tawang! Cause I don't see a way of us loosing an inch of territory while retaining nukes.
Our armed forces at present are bloated, pre occupied with internal security duties, aren't optimally armed, are organised in a WW-2 type organisational set up with equally dated war fighting abilities & strategic mindset.

Neither are Chinese ready for any war. Most of their air Force is still old jets even new once like j10 are plagued by reliability and availability issues. Few modern su35 and j11 D will be met with a wall of rafale su30 and mirages. Not to mention s400 complicating things for attacking Chinese.

But even if one considers all your points one has to question how will china hold territory and will have to expand very very long supply line across Himalayas to hold tawang?
 
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