The F-35 was designed as a structural integration tool in the US military, much more than a stand-alone fighter. It only works fully with the US C4ISR architecture and requires ongoing technical support from Lockheed Martin and the Pentagon.
Until now, this dependence was seen as an advantage: it guaranteed buyers direct access to American military power. But this logic assumed that the United States would remain a reliable and constant ally. Now, with Trump 2.0 and his even more unpredictable entourage, that assumption is collapsing.
The countries that bought the F-35 never envisaged operating on their own. They accepted a form of vassalage because it guaranteed protection in exchange for the loss of autonomy. But today, the risk is that this dependence could become a trap:
- If Trump decides not to defend certain allies, their F-35s will be unusable in critical situations.
- If Trump imposes restrictions on use, buyers will find themselves bound hand and foot (cf. the ban on sending F-16s to Ukraine in the first place).
- If the United States turns in on itself, the F-35-dependent nations will have to review their entire strategic posture.
Greenland is a good example. If Trump seriously considers annexing it (or at least making it a US-controlled territory), Denmark will lose all autonomy over its defence. Its F-35s will only be usable if Washington gives the go-ahead.
The same problem applies to Poland. If a conflict breaks out in the Baltic States, the Polish F-35 cannot be used without a green light from the US. Trump has already implied that NATO is a conditional protection.
The irony is that those who relied on the F-35 to guarantee their security are the most exposed today. And those who avoided the trap (France with its Rafale, Germany with its Eurofighter, even Sweden with its Gripen) find themselves paradoxically in a better position.
The current realisation is late in coming, but inevitable. Europe will not be able to back down easily on the F-35, but the question of real strategic military autonomy is becoming more pressing than ever.