That applies to all MRFA contenders in their current forms.
Relevant as support aircraft & number-fillers yes, but not as frontline fighters against China in the 2030s.
You have to go by what the IAF thinks, or even the IN, not what you think. Your assumptions have to be shaped by what the forces think and do.
It's a Rafale+ if you're talking about F4. Talking about F5, it's gonna be a pretty even match tech-wise. But it's gonna be coming about a decade after F5 does, so not really relevant.
Maybe Rafale F6 in terms of avionics, but TEDBF is a much larger aircraft at 17 m. The new design increases length by 0.7 m, which means much more fuel than the Rafale. Plus a new much wider wingspan similar in size to the LCA when folded, so more fuel there. My guess is 6.5T versus 4.7T. Let's hope AMCA engine too considering the new date.
NGF will be the main fighter on the PANG, Rafale will just be holding the fort until it comes. After that it'll be relegated to secondary duties against low-intensity threats (kinda like Super Etendard was to Rafale), eventually NGF will replace it completely.
But if we go with TEDBF in its current form, we'll be a generation behind major navies of the day by mid-century. This won't be acceptable. IN isn't stupid, they won't buy TEDBF in its current form. They need a 5th gen platform minimum.
You're just reading too much into a very early iteration of the requirement.
Rafale to NGF transition will take a long time though. As per Trappier, SCAF is only possible by 2050, and to get the requisite numbers, it will take until 2055. So at least until then, Rafale's going to be their main jet.
As for IN, they will have transitioned to a next gen fighter by the same time that will operate alongside TEDBF.
You're using one non-finalized design requirement to extrapolate another non-finalized design requirement. A futile exercise.
But both are real. The USN is giving up on penetration mission, and the IN is developing TEDBF without stealth shaping. Both are pointing towards what I said.
I stand corrected.
But F-35C with foldable wings can be an option.
Maybe, but they did not offer it. And I'm not sure if it's powerful enough for STOBAR ops. And even the SH was considered too heavy for the arrestor gear.
Not a problem when the background is just a cold desert like Ladakh/Tibetan plateau.
The bleed air will just cool the hot exhaust that much faster. The French have designed it for European winters, especially in Russia.
Anyway, IR is not suitable against the ground. It's already difficult to detect stuff at much colder temperatures at high altitude. Like it's -50deg C at 10 km. And ground temp even during winter is not that impressive. It's cold by our personal standards, but not so much for IR detectors.
It can do much more than air defence today and into the early 2040s. It's the longevity that'll be a problem unless it gets the ECU upgrade.
But like I said, we can always upgrade later. We need 5th gens ASAP.
The IAF won't buy until the jet is ready. As of today, the F-35 is yet to meet objectives it was supposed to meet back in 2019 (FOC). The TR-2 kit was supposed to give them that, but that failed. So now they are waiting for TR-3, which will become functional sometime in 2026. After that, they will work towards meeting the objectives they had set for 2021, B4, which will probably only be achieved after 2030.
What the IAF can do is take a risk and order in 2028 or 2029 for delivery in 2032 by assuming they will actually meet that schedule. But I don't believe the IAF is interested in taking such a risk. The idea behind a stopgap is to quickly buy guaranteed capability, while you are pushing for the opposite.
In 2023, it failed JSE.
Washington, Feb 3 (UNI) The Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter still suffers at least 65 basic deficiencies where it continues to fail to meet basic testing specifications, the Office of the Director, Operational Test and Evaluation (DOT&E) said in a report. The JPO [F-35 Joint Project...
www.centralchronicle.com
The JPO [F-35 Joint Project Office] completed the readiness review for JSE [joint simulation environment] trials in September 2023, and certified it as ready for testing, despite 65 deficiencies against the baseline JSE requirements, the report said on Friday.
And then delayed TR-3. It was supposed to be ready in 2023.
Testing and reliability of the F-35 remain below par, but the Director of Operational Test and Evaluation says progress is being made.
www.airandspaceforces.com
“The F-35 program has shown no improvement in meeting schedule and performance timelines for developing and testing software designed to address deficiencies and add new capabilities,” the report added.
“Aircraft modifications, flight test instrumentation, [open-air battle shaping] capabilities, and stable software will all be required before dedicated operational testing can begin on the TR-3 aircraft with the capabilities already fielded on the TR-2 aircraft,” the report states, while noting that such testing might start sooner if modifications and software mature faster than expected.
Even the Pentagon had placed deliveries on hold for a year due to these deficiencies.
The head of Air Combat Command is “hopeful” the fighter jets will be ready for deliveries to resume in July.
www.defenseone.com
“Right now we're very much focused on the TR-3 upgrade, software upgrade, to the [F-35] jet. And as you know, Lockheed Martin had some issues with stability of that software package. So we've held up signing the jets over to the Air Force for the last few months. And so we're very much focused on unwinding that hold up. And I'm hopeful that those jets will start to be delivered this month,” Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach, the head of Air Combat Command, said during a virtual Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies event Wednesday. The government stopped accepting new F-35s last July because of problems with Technology Refresh-3, or TR-3.
The new date is 2026. Let's see if they manage to keep that.
And instead of buying 72 jets, they are buying less than 48 every year. And just 25 next year.
The Air Force will only bed down 25 F-35 fighters in fiscal 2026, according to the Pentagon's most recent Selected Acquisition Report.
www.airandspaceforces.com
So, until the USAF starts buying 72 a year, it means they don't have as much hope for the program. Earlier, the USAF planned to buy 1763 jets by 2037, but now they have pushed that back to 2049.
Then the supply chain is screwed up.
The Air Force says its F-35As are mission capable only about half the time, but that MC rates don’t tell the whole readiness story.
www.airandspaceforces.com
The F-35A mission capable rate for fiscal 2023 was 51.9 percent, with the Air Force blaming spare parts availability for the decline from the previous year’s figure of 56 percent.
That number means only half the fleet is available at any one time to perform a smaller subset missions, not all missions, which is even less.
“When you have that mentality, a hiccup in the supply chain … becomes your single point of failure," the F-35's program executive officer said Monday.
www.defensenews.com
Lastly, it's in DOGE's crosshairs.
Plagued by delays, software glitches and cybersecurity flaws, the US$2 trillion F-35 stealth jet fighter program is expected to come under fire when the
asiatimes.com
So it's likely that they are looking for bakras to susidize the program before they end it.
So there you have it. The jet is not even close to being ready, the supply chain is broken, the logistics plan is broken, the software doesn't work, costs are spiralling out of control, production is far too low, and so on. The IAF is not gonna look at the jet until all these things are fixed to a significant degree. And then come all the India-specific issues like a spares warehouse, sticking some of our own stuff on it, unconstrained access to our own data, local maintenance etc.
The political approval for access has been given. As of now it's still in a proposal stage like the Foreign Secretary said.
But knowing that this option exists, we'll have to take it into account going forward.
Sure, but knowing the problems the F-35 faces, it's not going to replace MRFA.
In any case, the IAF's LCA, MRFA, AMCA plan takes in account China and Pakistan's new jets. So there's not going to be a kneejerk reaction to that.
If Musk ends the F-35, then more money will get poured into NGAD, which will be offered up for exports too. We do not need a stopgap today, what we MAY need is a 6th gen stopgap that makes up for the time between 2035 and 2055.
And it entirely depends on what the Chinese NGAD will be like. If it's a high and fast flying jet like the Mig-41, we will need either the TE NGAD or Mig-41. If it's more conventional, we can make do with later variants of the Su-57 or GCAP or just stick with AMCA itself.
t.co
