Ukraine - Russia Conflict

randomradio said:
Regardless of the size, the money that's going to Russia is the same. In fact, India is buying mostly in rupees and dirhams, whereas the EU is paying in euros, which gives the Russians more benefits. And no, Hungary is not absorbing as much Russian energy as India is. Most of it is going to Western Europe, even France, not just Germany.
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Nah, the EU is paying in crappy rubles, which gives Russia no benefit. It's probably worth less than what was paid now.

Hungary is absorbing more than any other EU country. Hungary, Bulgaria, Czech Republic and Slovakia are absorbing more than the only 4 Western European countries on that list (Italy, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium).

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randomradio said:
Then I guess the West should have no problems if the Russians sell their junk to NoKo and Iran.
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They already are. Russian threats come in two flavours, things they never do and things they were already doing. Another example of the latter was their cluster munitions threat.

Attack by strike drones of Russian ships​


IN THE HOLE, where the occupiers were hiding: THERE WAS NO CHANCE TO SURVIVE​

 
www.thedrive.com

Russian Su-27’s Missile Missed RC-135 Spy Plane After Deliberate Launch: Report

The latest revelations about the 2022 incident suggest the Russian Su-27 pilot followed up with a second missile, to try and down the RC-135.
www.thedrive.com www.thedrive.com

More details have emerged about the incident last September in which the pilot of a Russian Su-27 Flanker fired a missile in the vicinity of a U.K. Royal Air Force RC-135W Rivet Joint surveillance aircraft over the Black Sea. The missile launch, which we reported on at the time, had been explained by Russia as a “technical malfunction,” a theory that the U.K. Ministry of Defense had also publicly backed. Subsequently, leaked classified materials from the U.S. Department of Defense suggested that the missile was actually fired deliberately after the Flanker pilot misunderstood an order. The U.K.’s public service broadcaster now reports that two missiles were fired, with the first missing its target, rather than malfunctioning.
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0 for 2 against a completely unmanoeuvreable flying elephant with propellers. Impressive.
 
zinswinsin said:
Sure, all reasons. Misses the main one, which is the SAM isn't that good.

6/10 is really bad even if you're against NATO ISR. Where's the SHORAD?

Is India going to lose their S-400s to HARMs, S-200s, Storm Shadow equivalents? Basically the prime of NATO in the 90s sure.

In a war against Pakistan, will the Chinese ISR not be available for Pakistan? Regardless of ISR, which I acknowledge for when the S-400 is being hunted. I can't easily excuse base defense failures.
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It's not that simple. Here's a good example of Western defences experiencing 100% failure.

en.wikipedia.org

Abqaiq–Khurais attack - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

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The Iranians didn't even use stealth missiles, unlike the Storm Shadow, which is considered to be at the cutting edge of this type of system. The Patriot failed, so did the Crotale and even the CIWS Skyguard.

So if the S-400 has the ability to stop 6 missiles out of 10, then we don't know what trajectory the remaining 4 followed. For example, you can have missiles coming from multiple directions, and the fastest the S-400 could react to was 6 of 10. So it has less to do with the SAM and more to do with coverage. Or the remaining 4 came in from an area which did not have sufficient coverage, which is not a problem with the SAM itself. Or the SAM was successfully spoofed when it came time to attack the last 4.

For example, in the Saudi attack, the Saudis claimed the Patriots were arranged to intercept BMs, not CMs. So it's not the fault of the SAM itself.

The fact is the Storm Shadow is very likely the most advanced CM in the Western arsenal today, and the S-400 could still defeat 6 of them. It is not an old missile by design, it's an analogue of the JASSM. It probably has an RCS as much or lower than the F-117. And this could either be 60% interception rate or 100% depending on how it actually played out. What you should be worried about is the S-400 can defeat a stealth target even when operating under 100% transparency.
 
BMD said:
Nah, the EU is paying in crappy rubles, which gives Russia no benefit. It's probably worth less than what was paid now.
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No, the EU is buying rubles from Russian banks with euros and then paying for energy in rubles. It's a double whammy. So not only are you paying in euros, but you are also paying for the conversion yourself.

BMD said:
Hungary is absorbing more than any other EU country. Hungary, Bulgaria, Czech Republic and Slovakia are absorbing more than the only 4 Western European countries on that list (Italy, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium).

View attachment 30408
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It's not the complete list. It says the EU is getting 22B worth of the stuff, but all I counted was 16B. So there's still 6B worth of stuff imported by other EU countries not mentioned. And of course, this doesn't count all the refined products being sold to the EU via India. Some of our 21B is also going to the EU.
 
randomradio said:
It's not that simple. Here's a good example of Western defences experiencing 100% failure.

en.wikipedia.org

Abqaiq–Khurais attack - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

50442255_6.jpg


The Iranians didn't even use stealth missiles, unlike the Storm Shadow, which is considered to be at the cutting edge of this type of system. The Patriot failed, so did the Crotale and even the CIWS Skyguard.

So if the S-400 has the ability to stop 6 missiles out of 10, then we don't know what trajectory the remaining 4 followed. For example, you can have missiles coming from multiple directions, and the fastest the S-400 could react to was 6 of 10. So it has less to do with the SAM and more to do with coverage. Or the remaining 4 came in from an area which did not have sufficient coverage, which is not a problem with the SAM itself. Or the SAM was successfully spoofed when it came time to attack the last 4.

For example, in the Saudi attack, the Saudis claimed the Patriots were arranged to intercept BMs, not CMs. So it's not the fault of the SAM itself.

The fact is the Storm Shadow is very likely the most advanced CM in the Western arsenal today, and the S-400 could still defeat 6 of them. It is not an old missile by design, it's an analogue of the JASSM. It probably has an RCS as much or lower than the F-117. And this could either be 60% interception rate or 100% depending on how it actually played out. What you should be worried about is the S-400 can defeat a stealth target even when operating under 100% transparency.
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Any system has 100% failure if it isn't operationally manned at the time in question. The Saudi's simply didn't expect an attack. Russia, on the other hand is on the 19th month of a full scale war, where such attack are now frequent. Apples and oranges. And no, Storm Shadow is not the most advanced CM in NATO, that would be JASSM-ER, smaller RCS at all frequencies and longer range.

1694728047939.png
 
randomradio said:
No, the EU is buying rubles from Russian banks with euros and then paying for energy in rubles. It's a double whammy. So not only are you paying in euros, but you are also paying for the conversion yourself.
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No, they're just paying in rubles. The double whammy is on Russia, since what it is paid depreciates violently.
randomradio said:
It's not the complete list. It says the EU is getting 22B worth of the stuff, but all I counted was 16B. So there's still 6B worth of stuff imported by other EU countries not mentioned. And of course, this doesn't count all the refined products being sold to the EU via India. Some of our 21B is also going to the EU.
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Yeah, and that is most likely going to Romania and places like Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, which are right next to Russia.
 
BMD said:
www.thedrive.com

Russian Su-27’s Missile Missed RC-135 Spy Plane After Deliberate Launch: Report

The latest revelations about the 2022 incident suggest the Russian Su-27 pilot followed up with a second missile, to try and down the RC-135.
www.thedrive.com www.thedrive.com



0 for 2 against a completely unmanoeuvreable flying elephant with propellers. Impressive.
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@zinswinsin

There you go, an example of the battlefield transparency Ukraine enjoys, without the threat of NATO assets being shot down.

And based on the flight profile, it was well within the kill radius of the S-400.
 
BMD said:
Any system has 100% failure if it isn't operationally manned at the time in question. The Saudi's simply didn't expect an attack. Russia, on the other hand is on the 19th month of a full scale war, where such attack are now frequent. Apples and oranges. And no, Storm Shadow is not the most advanced CM in NATO, that would be JASSM-ER, smaller RCS at all frequencies and longer range.

View attachment 30412
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Sure, but I didn't count it 'cause it wasn't in the same class. There's also the French MdCN, which is likely to be even more stealthy.

Plus such graphs are questionable in terms of authenticity or accuracy. But it still shows that we are talking about very stealthy targets that the S-400 is capable of taking out.
 
randomradio said:
@zinswinsin

There you go, an example of the battlefield transparency Ukraine enjoys, without the threat of NATO assets being shot down.

And based on the flight profile, it was well within the kill radius of the S-400.
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The Su-27 pilot deliberately tried to shoot down the RC-135 and was immediately scolded by the wing leader, both missiles failed. Facts are facts.

And the S-400 and everything in Crimea is well within the range of NATO weapons.
 
randomradio said:
Sure, but I didn't count it 'cause it wasn't in the same class. There's also the French MdCN, which is likely to be even more stealthy.
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Why is it not in the same class? MdCN is likely less stealthy because of the shape it uses for sub-compatibility. It looks the same as a Tomahawk except longer.
randomradio said:
Plus such graphs are questionable in terms of authenticity or accuracy. But it still shows that we are talking about very stealthy targets that the S-400 is capable of taking out.
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...with a 50:50 Pk. These are also slow subsonic targets. Then there's this:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1702296474531381378

This is as easy as it gets. This is like some kind of 1950s SAM test.
 
BMD said:
The Su-27 pilot deliberately tried to shoot down the RC-135 and was immediately scolded by the wing leader, both missiles failed. Facts are facts.

And the S-400 and everything in Crimea is well within the range of NATO weapons.
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Speculation. As mentioned in the article.
 
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