India's Russian oil imports - the reality
I blog on the Ukraine war and the feedback I often get when discussing it in forums is that India is siding with Russia, or financing Putin by buying Russian oil. My latest blog post looks at oil trade data and argues that India's actions are in the best interest of all oil importers. There are more egregious instances of sanctions busting and better ways to reduce Russia's energy export revenues
without harming importers.
India's Russian oil imports - the reality
Good points. I have a few counters though.
Opening up other markets like Venezuela and Iran will not affect Russia's exports due to the need for maintaining political equilibrium with the West. If bad things happen to Russia, bad things will eventually happen to other countries in the Global South. The West behaves when Russia's strong. At the very least China and India will continue buying the same amount of energy from Russia while reducing supplies from other more traditional markets.
Sanctioning refined fuel would mean cheaper Russian refined fuel, which quite a few countries will buy. Refined products cannot be sanctioned due to the nature of the game, cheap energy directly benefits industry. Anyway, China will just buy Russia's fuel and resell it to other countries.
Both will serve to reduce Russia's earning potential, but it won't really change the overall calculus for the West, and it will make things even more cheaper for China, and it's the latter situation that the West would like to avoid.
At the same time, the West has political issues with Venezuela and Iran, and would like to prevent giving them any kind of sops. And they would prefer to avoid a supply glut that can unnecessarily advantage the Global South. Hence the delicate balance between confronting enemies and suppressing other upcoming competitors.