Michel Goya, who publishes an update on the situation in Ukraine every other day or so, which I have often posted here, has written a forward-looking article, in a major French newspaper, with Vincent Tourret on the foreseeable evolution of the conflict.
Guerre en Ukraine : les scénarios militaires possibles dans le Donbass
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
War in Ukraine: possible military scenarios in the Donbass
Fall of Mariupol, general offensive in the east or encirclement... what are Russia's military options? What resistance are the Ukrainians capable of putting up? A review with military experts.
By Eléa Pommiers
Ukraine is now living in anticipation of the Russian offensive on the east of the country. A month and a half after the start of the war, Moscow has been forced to revise its initial strategy and focus on a more limited objective: the complete takeover of the Donbass, which Ukrainian troops and their pro-Russian separatist enemies have been sharing since 2014.
While some announce the imminent fall of the city of Mariupol, a strategic position in the south of Donbass, Kiev has repeatedly called on the population of the two regions of Donetsk and Luhansk to flee as quickly as possible and has been preparing for an imminent attack for several days. What form could this offensive take? What are Russia's military options? What resistance are the Ukrainians capable of putting up? The point in cards with Vincent Tourret, researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research, and the military historian Michel Goya.
It is not impossible that Moscow's initial ambition, to take over Ukraine and control it in its entirety, remains the same. But two imperatives are now influencing Russia's strategy: the Kremlin's political deadlines and the operational capacities of its army.
The Russian forces are worn out by forty days of fighting. Some units, such as in Kherson or near Kharkiv, cannot leave their positions, where they are holding the front against the Ukrainians, who are not giving up their weapons. Many have suffered human and material losses. They have squandered their combat potential by attacking too many targets with too few resources for a month and a half," summarises Vincent Tourret, a researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research. They have no reserves, because they had committed more than 80% of their forces, including their best units, and some of them are no longer operational as they stand.
Even if the units are not completely destroyed, the loss of soldiers or the degradation of some of the equipment temporarily annihilates their operational capacities and forces them to reconstitute these units before committing them again. This takes time - at least a week each time a unit suffers 10% losses," explains Michel Goya, historian and former soldier. But the Russians are precisely short of time.
Many analysts believe that President Vladimir Putin, bogged down by the fierce resistance of the Ukrainians, wants to make gains before the military parade on 9 May marking the Soviet victory over the Nazis in 1945. If the date is not necessarily intangible, "there is a sense of urgency, because the Kremlin wants, for political reasons, a victory to be presented quickly to its population, in particular to justify the losses," insists Vincent Tourret.
In view of the positions they have already acquired and the state of their forces, the capture of Donbass seems to be the most feasible objective, because "there is a possibility of encirclement", explains Michel Goya. Eastern Donbass is under pro-Russian control. In the south, Moscow controls almost the entire coastal area along the Sea of Azov, with the exception of the city of Mariupol. In the north, troop movements on the ground show that Vladimir Putin's army is concentrated between Kharkiv and Izum. It is there that Russia has been gathering its forces that were deployed in the north of Ukraine, in Kiev, Chernihiv, Soumy and Kharkiv, for several days and putting them back in order.
According to experts, the northern part of the pincer movement will be ready to go on the offensive when the weakened units that have been repatriated there are reconstituted. In the south, the fall of Mariupol could lift the last lock.
Mariupol, an essential victory and a minimal objective?
Under siege for more than forty days, the strategic port of Mariupol, ravaged and isolated in a zone under Russian control, could fall in the next few days. Is its fall a prerequisite for a wider offensive in the Donbass? "Not necessarily", explains Michel Goya, according to whom Russia can attack the rest of the region without the forces engaged in Marioupol - in any case too diminished to be sent into battle again immediately.
Vincent Tourret believes that the Russians would be putting themselves in danger by launching an offensive from the south of the Donbass without having "mastered the rear": "Fighting still going on in Mariupol mobilises forces that cannot be redirected, could destabilise the southern front in the Donbass and weaken a possible assault. They cannot rationally launch an offensive from the south without the city having fallen.
The capture of Mariupol would be an important victory for the Russians. It would allow them to consolidate their coastal territorial gains along the Sea of Azov by linking the Donbass region to Crimea, which Moscow annexed in 2014. It would also give them control of a major logistical axis, an asset for supplying the front. "If all else fails, the Kremlin could see this as a minimal victory that would allow it to claim the entire strip north of Crimea, the south of the Donetsk region and most of the Luhansk region," says Goya, while adding that Russia has "very clear" ambitions to go beyond that.
Russia's ideal scenario: encirclement by the Dnieper in the west
Experts agree that the Russians will proceed by encirclement to seize, in particular, the part of the Donetsk region still under Ukrainian control. It remains to be seen how big the trap will be.
If Moscow's forces were still in possession of their maximum capacity, they could, according to Michel Goya, have launched a double offensive to achieve a "great encirclement of the Donbass" by taking Kharkiv in the north, Zaporizhia in the south, and then following the Dnieper. "This is now impossible, they no longer have the means", he assures.
Even passing to the south of Kharkiv, which the Russians have not managed to take, to reach Dnipro, the manoeuvre seems unrealistic. "Russia will have to attack with a degraded force, will be obliged to use units that it will not be able to reconstitute, and the wider the encircling cordon, the more dangerous it is, because it is vulnerable on both sides," agrees Vincent Tourret.
Not to mention that the terrain is difficult. The region is very urbanised, the raspoutitsa ("the time of bad roads") prevents the Russians from advancing off the roads - where they are vulnerable targets - and the area is crossed by numerous rivers, swollen by the thaw, which they will have to cross under Ukrainian fire. In addition, unlike Mariupol or Kherson, the cities of Donbass have been preparing for several weeks: soldiers and volunteers have stocked up on food and ammunition, civilians have been evacuated, trenches have been dug...
The risky hypothesis of the encirclement of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk
Russia is therefore certainly preparing for a more limited offensive. According to Michel Goya, it could launch a double assault from the city of Donetsk, in the south of Donbass, already in the hands of the pro-Russians, and from Izum, in the north. "It is there that the centre of gravity of the Russian forces is now, the main effort will be in this region," predicts the specialist, who observes the movement of troops on the ground.
The basic unit of the Russian army is the so-called Combined Arms Battle Group (GTIA), battalions that combine tanks, infantry and artillery. Each has just under a thousand men, and it is estimated that Russia had committed between 120 and 140 by the end of February in Ukraine, according to the former soldier. In the Izum region, "there are about 15 at the moment," he estimates. Although it is difficult to quantify the number of soldiers deployed on the entire front, Michel Goya gives an order of magnitude of 50,000 men facing each other on both sides.
From Izum, the Russians could head directly for Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, two large towns in the Donetsk region with 111,000 and 157,000 inhabitants respectively, or they could go further west, through the towns of Barvinkove and Pokrovsk, to join the southern front and encircle the centre of Donbass. Given the current movements, it is difficult to know whether the Russians will go in one or the other direction, or both, and where the southern offensive will start from.
The region of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk is a big conurbation, it is impossible to take it over quickly," explains Michel Goya. The Russians have a lot of trouble with urban combat: they advance block by block, shelling the areas with artillery fire. Laying siege to these towns means creating a new Marioupol. If they want to be able to claim a victory quickly, they may try to bypass them instead to join the northern and southern fronts by creating a "pocket" in the centre of the Donbass."
The more cautious strategy: proceed by tight and progressive encirclements
But Sloviansk and Kramatorsk are not Mariupol, which is isolated in an area under Russian control and easier to encircle because it is bordered by the sea. By encircling these eastern cities, the Russians would come up against the response of Ukrainian forces, which could attack from the west, and of those who would defend the area from the interior and whose capacity for resistance is equivalent to that of Marioupol, according to Michel Goya.
For Vincent Tourret, the most rational approach would therefore be to proceed by smaller encirclements. It is thus possible that Moscow's forces would first take the town of Sievierodonetsk, in the east, which they would encompass from Izioum, in the north, and Popasna, further south, which has been attacked relentlessly for several days. They would then expand their attack to the west to "envelop" Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
"If they manage to make an initial encirclement, it will have repercussions on the whole Ukrainian apparatus in the Donbass. The more this system is split up, the more it will be disorganised and the less effective the defence will be", the researcher continues.
The "great unknown": the state of the Ukrainian forces
In the opinion of the two experts, victory is far from certain for Moscow. "The great unknown is the state of the Ukrainian forces", which do not communicate on their losses, Michel Goya said. According to him, about two thirds of the Ukrainian army are on the eastern front and they are "elite units".
They are in a defensive position, with a limited capacity to carry out counter-offensives. These brigades are certainly, like the Russians, diminished and also lack time to recover. The two experts nevertheless point out that Ukraine still has the capacity to redeploy forces that were stationed in the west and north of the country to reinforce or relieve those in the Donbass.
"However, they cannot completely clear their northern borders with Russia and Belarus," Vincent Tourret said. The reinforcement in equipment and soldiers also always manages to transit through the interior of Ukraine, even if the supply lines are longer. On the other hand, adds the researcher, "Ukrainian forces have no reserve capacity and will not be able to replenish their losses, even with time.
International arms and intelligence support could also be crucial. "The Ukrainians have a much better knowledge of the battlefield than their opponents, whose intelligence is a structural flaw, and this makes them very agile in their manoeuvres to attack on the Russian rear and flanks," explains Mr Tourret.
Whatever form the Russian offensive in the Donbass takes, "it will be very violent, but they could be stopped quickly," says Michel Goya. For the historian, a temporary ceasefire could follow a defeated assault, until a potential new attack in the summer, when Russia will have reconstituted its forces. "The Russians are waiting for a miracle in the Donbass, but there is no evidence that it will happen in the short term. In any case, the challenge is not impossible for Ukraine," Vincent Tourret concluded.
