Ukraine - Russia Conflict
- Thread starter randomradio
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to exchanged Russian prisoners:
Funny, 8 months earlier you were explaining why Russian tanks did so badly. Because they didn't have enough infantry to protect them. So which is it?
No, they absolutely don't have the competence. They did not have it during the Soviet era, and they have it even less now. They never managed to keep up with the West's electronics, in terms of performances and reliability, and their uncompetitive domestic industry simply died off once they got access to Western electronics.
History of computing in the Soviet Union - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
That's not how it works.
Competence is not the same as competitive. The Russians cannot compete with a Western electronics factory for the open market, but they can manufacture what they need on their own, even if it's more expensive.
So what costs $1000 to manufacture in France at million units a year for vehicles could cost $10000 in Russia. But they only need it for 20000 or 30000 vehicles over many years instead of for millions of cars in just a year. So they only need competence.
Powerful countries have the ability to manufacture everything they need in small quantities required for war. You are applying middle class logic to the rich. A multi-millionaire wouldn't mind paying $100000 for something he needs desperately, like a new life-saving medicine, when a middle class guy has to wait for it to come down to $1000 before he can afford it.
What? A Ukrainian terrorist infiltrated your airbase in the middle of a war and stole a fighter bomber? And I thought Top Gun Maverick was a little unrealistic.
So why are they buying drones from Iran?
Could be true, could be false. The problem is we don't know.
Post Galwan, June, we got everything we needed for the winter in a matter of months, in very large quantities, from scratch. Otoh, if it is as you say and corruption has eaten away their supplies, even they can work from scratch and get everything they need very quickly. It's just infantry gear.
Different story for heavy equipment, like tanks. That will take time, if 7 months is not enough. But you can bet the lack of infantry gear is just propaganda. It can scare newly mobilised troops and force them to waste money, but that's about it. By next month, you can bet they will be wearing their winter gear and this propaganda will be forgotten.
To manufacture stuff, you need factories, and skilled workers. Russia has neither.
Russia has neither because what it had from the Soviet era was not competitive and therefore closed down.
So if they want to manufacture what they need on their own, they have to restart the whole industry, from scratch. This is not something you can do in a week or even in a month. Especially in a terminally corrupt society like Russia where companies are very good at promising, very good at billing, and very bad at delivering.
This is also why I don't believe in the Armata and Felon.
Any offensive will be over within a week or two, the losses posted on Oryx are over 7 months of Russian uselessness due to their lack of offensive punch.
Putin needed the excuse necessary for mobilisation and he got it. Now the question is how seriously they will continue to take the war. It's all about speed after that.
A lot of the material losses will be made up by Ukr abandoning their equipment too. Those 2 strike corps will earn them a lot of prisoners via encirclement. Which is also why the West is now prepared to send Ukr air defence in a hurry. You can bet they know what's coming in the summer. 300000 troops is too much for Ukr to handle.
The long term issues will not make it worth it, especially if Russia and China start supporting Iran with money and tech. Israel is better off staying neutral.
The troop pull-out was timed well with the Crimean land bridge. So it may not be the whole truth. The Russians were asking for a bit too much as well, like the removal of Zelensky and breaking Ukraine up. Zelensky wasn't a career politician either, so the usual rules of diplomacy wouldn't have worked. And we know for a fact the West isn't interested in peace in Ukr.
The Russian siege was weak as well, not enough numbers. A large part was bogged down in Sumy and Chernihiv. If they had enough numbers, they would have stayed much longer and we would have seen the Ukr troops in the cauldrons surrendering after a point. To make matters worse, the Russians didn't use their air force.
T -14 and SU-57 are going to be produced by experience companies like uralvagonzavord and UAC ( Sukhoi+Mikhoyan gurevich).
Both of these Companies have excellent record of ( T - series tank , flanker series, MIG series ) Designing and producing Top quality defense products.
The BTGs went into Ukr without full strength because they needed conscripts to get to full strength.
A lot more info has come out since then. A lot of offensives were not backed by reserves, so the Russians had to constantly back off after taking a position due to lack of relief. I mean, soldiers are not machines, they can't stay on the frontline indefinitely without food and sleep.
Plus the Russians were not fighting using the same tactics that they would have used had they been fighting at full strength, with reserve forces, and with more leeway. There were too many constraints, which the Ukrs used effectively with their larger numbers. So this also affected Russian morale on the ground.
Furthermore, the Russians have more or less been fighting a defensive war after the land bridge was established, while using militias and PMC for offensives, like conquering Luhansk. This has helped them preserve their forces quite well relative to the Ukrs who have been throwing bodies at the Russians.
I don't know about it.
Iran will become much more powerful and it will remain a die-hard enemy of Israel.
GCC-Israel tie is just to contain IRAN. There Is no friendship in between them.
If I was Israel, I will definitely do whatever it is to sabotage Iranian growth as long as possible.
The Russians don't have very good drone programs that are at a lower tech level, like kamikaze drones like the Harop. They had programs in the works for propeller drones, but like India, they are behind some of the more established countries.
And they didn't chase after these drones because they are not very useful against peer adversaries. They put money into more important stuff like the Okhotnik.
There's unlikely to be any problems when it comes to heavy engineering. Their MKI family deliveries have been over 600 in the last 2 decades, with India having manufactured only 60 of those. And they have exported 1000+ T-90s outside India in just the last decade.
They only lack a self-sufficient civilian industry. You can't conflate the two.
The talibans are the children of Afghan refugees who settled in Pakistan and were indoctrinated in Pakistan's jihad madrasas of the JUI. They are therefore ultimately the responsibility of the USSR, since without their coup and subsequent invasion of Afghanistan, the Talibans would never have existed in the first place. The USA are responsible for funding Pakistan to train them, though, I'll grant you that.your selective amensia on west's role in fostering these jihadi's is pretty amusing. west & their jihadi chums fight each other and they want some useful idiots to help them fix it? thats your so called ally pakistan.
Russian Tank Manufacturer, Uralvagonzavod, Halts Production Due to Low Supply of Parts
Uralvagonzavod, Russia's main battle tank manufacturer, has allegedly halted production as it appears that they have run out of parts to make and repair tanks.
sofrep.com
There's a reason they're sending T-62 into battle instead of the Armata. We're in 2022, they were supposed to have hundreds of them by now; that was the plan back in 2015 when the invincible supertank was introduced to the world by breaking down during the Moscow parade... Surprise, surprise, they always had a convenient excuse to push back the production by one year or two, every year... and now they can't produce anything anymore because, surprise surprise, they can't make their own components and without Western tech, the Armata or even the T90 cannot be built.Russian Tank Manufacturer, Uralvagonzavod, Halts Production Due to Low Supply of Parts
Uralvagonzavod, Russia's main battle tank manufacturer, has allegedly halted production as it appears that they have run out of parts to make and repair tanks.
According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine...
According to Xi Jinping, Dassault has stopped production of the Rafale?