"Ukraine, the double blindness": Russian and Western mistakes in a conflict
In a book, academic Hamit Bozarslan analyses Putin's misjudgements on the one hand, and the naivety of the West on the other, both of which have contributed to the inevitability of a war from another age.
Book. Hamit Bozarslan announced it as early as February 25, 2022, one day after Russia invaded Ukraine: "Putin will not win this war." The proof of this oracle can be found in a lesson by Ibn Khaldun, a 14th century Muslim scholar. Any empire can only be reconstituted if it combines several fundamental elements: an internal egalitarian solidarity (asabiyya), a universal idea (da'wa) and a project of elevation. Vladimir Putin has none of these in his deck. His Russia is an example of glaring inequality, his organic nationalism is sectarian, and his dream of grandeur is more likely to turn Russia into a miserable state than a prosperous one, unlike Rome, for example, which, by moving from Republic to Empire in the first century BC, put an end to civil wars and increased its power tenfold.
And yet, the master of the Kremlin is stubborn. Instead of opting for democratisation, the only path capable of bringing stability and prosperity, Vladimir Putin has deliberately chosen the path of panslavic radicalism to achieve his goal, writes the historian and sociologist, director of studies at the Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales, in Ukraine, le Double aveuglement (CNRS Editions). This involves rewriting Russian history, erasing any narrative other than that imposed by its ideologues. And because the former Soviet federated republics, starting with Ukraine, have no history of their own in Putin's eyes, they have no future outside "holy Russia".
His revisionism goes so far as to swallow the disturbing pages of Russian history, such as Lenin's distrust of "Great Russian nationalism", or Mikhail Gorbachev's perestroika and glasnost during the last years of the USSR. These "historical errors" must be erased, like the traces of a road accident. This is the first blindness that Hamit Bozarslan discusses in his book, which condenses in some hundred pages the lessons he draws from a war of another age.
A call for vigilance
This specialist of authoritarian powers (Turkey, Russia, China), but also of violence in the Middle East, adds to Russian national-bolshevism a second blindness: that of the Western democracies this time, which did not want to see the obvious: that of a revanchist and bellicose Russia, whose only software is that of the neo-imperial power ready to do anything to crush the slightest obstacle in its path. For nearly two decades, while Russia was preparing, after the Chechen, Georgian and Syrian episodes, for an arm wrestle with the West, Europeans and Americans refused to see the reality. They allowed themselves to be blinded by the lights of peace and liberalism, which covered with their brilliance the evil that was eating away at a predatory Kremlin, enraged and jealous of regaining its status as a world power.
But the post-Soviet parenthesis is well and truly closed, insists Hamit Bozarslan. From now on, time, which has become a major geopolitical variable between the autocrats and the democrats, is running out. The author invites Westerners to "examine their conscience" as the contours of a two-headed world take shape. The latter are invited to remain faithful to their democratic values and freedoms. Similarly, Ukraine must think about the post-war period by renouncing all nationalist logic and accepting the Russian part of its autonomous and national history. Without, however, sacralising the dark pages of the recent past. The author reminds us that if Ukrainians aspire to join Europe and its democratic principles, this will require the marginalisation of the country's ultranationalist fringes. These movements with Nazi overtones are certainly not capable of mortgaging the country's destiny, as they are so small. But only the prospect of European integration and the commitment of the political elites will be able to sort out the wheat from the chaff in the Ukrainian memory.
And in this respect, Europeans must be more vigilant with the many applications for integration into the Union, even beyond the classic criteria for membership. It is also up to Europeans and Americans to get their act together by being more attractive and inclusive with the rest of the world, especially the Russian periphery and the global South, while sublimating the spirit of the Enlightenment to better dismiss the idea of a possible direct confrontation with Russia - and China in the background? - so as to avoid making the war in Ukraine the prelude to a generalised conflict. For the first victory that the democracies can obtain from their duel with all the Putins of the world can only be over themselves.
"Ukraine, Le double aveuglement", by Hamit Bozarslan, CNRS Editions /deepl