The Houthi capture of ground overlooking the
Bab el-Mandeb Strait has dealt Saudi Arabia its gravest setback in Yemen in years, exposing intelligence failures, the collapse of Yemeni allies and the limits of U.S. protection.
A Houthi advance this week along the Red Sea coast and the capture of islands at the mouth of the strait, a vital artery for global oil supplies, has also left the kingdom scrambling for backing as
Iran and its allies expand their reach.
Senior Western, regional and Yemeni officials and sources said the Houthi breakthrough reflected various factors: deep divisions among anti-Houthi Yemeni factions, an untested Saudi-led command structure that replaced Emirati oversight, limited Saudi air support and an underestimation of Houthi preparations.
The diplomat said the Houthis had quietly assembled about 100,000 fighters, vastly outnumbering forces on the opposing side, adding: "Everyone, including the Saudis, missed this build-up and miscalculated the Houthis' intentions.”
Neil Quilliam, a fellow at London's Chatham House think tank, described the offensive as a glaring intelligence failure, saying: "They just weren't picking up the signal. They just weren't seeing the signs."
Yemeni political analyst Farea Al-Muslimi added: "The Saudis were caught off guard in Yemen."
The collapse of Saudi-backed forces handed the Houthis another prize beyond territory — a sizeable cache of advanced U.S.- and Saudi-supplied weaponry abandoned during the retreat.
The haul, according to regional sources, is likely to bolster the group's military capabilities, provide valuable intelligence on adversaries' equipment and further reinforce perceptions of a humiliating Saudi defeat.
"The Yemeni government forces were like a house of cards. They didn't resist. Completely. Completely," said Abdulkhaleq Abdallah, a political analyst in the United Arab Emirates.
The setback has also exposed how limited international support for a counteroffensive may be. Two Western officials said neither the United States nor European countries were prepared to offer direct military backing, and that Washington and its allies had not even joined a
Saudi-led maritime defence coalition announced in July.
Saudi officials did not respond to a request to comment for this article.
With Iran-backed fighters now holding territory that can threaten Saudi oil exports and Red Sea shipping, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) went to Cairo to seek help containing the fallout after Washington declined to intervene.
Two regional sources said Riyadh wanted Egypt to play a role in Red Sea operations, recalling Cairo's intervention in 2015 when its naval and air forces helped secure Bab el-Mandeb. There was no immediate word on whether Cairo would agree.