Hence the corollary to the question I posed. Where is the cost-benefit analysis for such a technological step?
@VCheng
A pertinent question. The answer lies in the following data
Communication Satellites like Badr Series of satellites and PAKSAT series. Mostly in Ku and C band of communications with the dual usage of Civilian and Military. Mostly launched with China's aid and few of the satellites are exclusively manufactured in China itself. The number of transponders allowing the high amount of data transfers and communication channels. [COMINT}
Earth Observational Satellites and Remote Resolution Sensing Satellite - launched many times over time with placement in LEO orbits. The focus has been on high-resolution imagery for national and international usage. [Imagery for civil and military usage]
Satellite Launch Vehicles - proclaimed as an ambition by Gen Musharff in 2005 for SUPARCO. Planned to be a spin-off from Military missile program but did not take off much owing to limited research undertaken. Lately, there seems to be increased cooperation with China with a renewed interest in this field. Results will show over time. [Deployment of Space-based Assets]
High Altitude Sounding rockets aka Shahpar and Rakhnum. Shahpur carrying 55-70 kg up to an altitude of 950 km and Rakhnum being 3 stage liquid fuel rocket carrying38-56 kgs to a similar 900-1000km altitude. [Pseudo ASAT ability]
GPS Navigation Satellites via access to BeiDou Chinese Navigation system. The same navigation system is being used in most of the missiles and other aerial manned /unmanned vehicles. [Navigation]
The nuclear missile and assets proliferation is well known already. So the access to the Yaogan constellation remains a credible risk as well
With CPEC angle, this will get further evolved with the Submarine docking and assets of Chinese origin getting deployed more and more in all 3 services of Pakistan.
Thus there remain high possibility which over time will get concretised that China will prop up Pakistan with all possible Space-based Assets to undermine Indian security for sure.
A pertinent question. The answer lies in the following data
Communication Satellites like Badr Series of satellites and PAKSAT series. Mostly in Ku and C band of communications with the dual usage of Civilian and Military. Mostly launched with China's aid and few of the satellites are exclusively manufactured in China itself. The number of transponders allowing the high amount of data transfers and communication channels. [COMINT}
Earth Observational Satellites and Remote Resolution Sensing Satellite - launched many times over time with placement in LEO orbits. The focus has been on high-resolution imagery for national and international usage. [Imagery for civil and military usage]
Satellite Launch Vehicles - proclaimed as an ambition by Gen Musharff in 2005 for SUPARCO. Planned to be a spin-off from Military missile program but did not take off much owing to limited research undertaken. Lately, there seems to be increased cooperation with China with a renewed interest in this field. Results will show over time. [Deployment of Space-based Assets]
High Altitude Sounding rockets aka Shahpar and Rakhnum. Shahpur carrying 55-70 kg up to an altitude of 950 km and Rakhnum being 3 stage liquid fuel rocket carrying38-56 kgs to a similar 900-1000km altitude. [Pseudo ASAT ability]
GPS Navigation Satellites via access to BeiDou Chinese Navigation system. The same navigation system is being used in most of the missiles and other aerial manned /unmanned vehicles. [Navigation]
The nuclear missile and assets proliferation is well known already. So the access to the Yaogan constellation remains a credible risk as well
With CPEC angle, this will get further evolved with the Submarine docking and assets of Chinese origin getting deployed more and more in all 3 services of Pakistan.
Thus there remain high possibility which over time will get concretised that China will prop up Pakistan with all possible Space-based Assets to undermine Indian security for sure.
So are you proposing that India develop and then demonstrate the means to counter Pakistan primarily or China itself? Surely, just as Pakistan has China, India may have a few countries with such abilities in its camp too should such a scenario materialize. Does India wish to spend its resources given this likelihood to be totally independent at this stage of its development?
The development and demonstration are for all adversaries of India, Today it may be limited to only China and Pakistan with whom we share an uneasy past and limited scope of solving the issues once and for all to move forward.
The resource for such a capability is an extension of offensive BMs and defensive BMD itself. The Agni Series of Missile can always be reconfigured for such a role and we have enough Agni 1 and 2 that a batch of the same can be converted for the Hard Kill Ability. In future, we can look at a specific spinoff in the lines of Agni4/5 with reduced payload to say 500kg and use them as hard kill vehicles.
In the arena of Defensive BMD, Laser, dazzlers and Direct Energy Weapons (DEW) have been growing prominence slowly and steadily. We have military programs from 2008 onwards just like other nations like the US or China etc also has in this field. These are from land-based projects of a DRDO-owned laboratory, the Laser Science and Technology Centre (LASTEC) and Centre for High Energy Systems and Sciences (CHESS) Thus the building blocks of core technology, systems with multi-mode and single mode COIL are also being researched and limited tests has been done in controlled conditions.
Thus the physical demonstration of the hard kill and soft kill is not an additional financial burden for the nation. Rather its a reflection of a tested platform reliability which increases our defensive posture and makes the adversaries also aware that they are not the only one with such capabilities to cripple our whole system. The cost of deterrance is high and its maintainence higher. The evolving battelfield will need such solutions and thus the whole basis of this article to go public with a demonstration to send across the message loud and clear.
Its true. Just when India is lobbying to join various international groupings on defence, nuclear & space related, can we deal with the fall outs of this ASAT test right now? My feelings are mixed. More space debris is not good for humanity nor space agencies too.
@Aashish However we still can do an test with an electronic target and a missile with dummy warhead to validate its test. Its possible that this test might have done with any Agni Series rockets?
@Aashish I will caution you to answer this very carefully, lest you ‘tip your hand’.
@VCheng while my position remains firm on a perception that I do not foresee any conflict in near future, prudence dictates the ability to respond appropriately with effective measures to a threat from either or one that is collusive in nature. Including in a domain of space and space based assets.
With incremental investment by PRC in Pakistan and the recent moves to co-opt the Pakistan Army to ensure execution of projects as envisaged under CPEC in accordance with Chinese proposals, while effectively casting aside any civil authority that may seemingly be in it’s way, the situation is increasingly appearing to be that of a ‘vassal’ Pakistan Army firming it’s grip over a nation that is already well within it’s control and striking an overt alliance with fundamentals within the society which can easily be diverted against India/civil authority as means to common ends.
It is an emergent trend in Indian security calculus to cater to a collusive threat rather than isolated singular threat.
Let us take this a step further: Where is the cost:benefit analysis, and not just in financial terms?
Can we talk about the cost:benefit analysis next, having established this premise, and not just in financial terms?
We must not test ASAT or nuclear bombs till we can fully indigenise our defence and petroleum oil runs dry.
India is reliant on oil imports and hence need to maintain higher standards of threshold for these things. It is import to develop the technology but keep the testing in hold.
India is reliant on oil imports and hence need to maintain higher standards of threshold for these things. It is import to develop the technology but keep the testing in hold.
If an ASAT is done, it is important the target is not one thats going to disintegrate into billions of pieces like the Chinese stupidly and hastily did.
There can be much good PR for responsible ASAT test and also better capability shown if we demonstrate a K.E rather than H.E based platform (like was done with the BMD).
There can be much good PR for responsible ASAT test and also better capability shown if we demonstrate a K.E rather than H.E based platform (like was done with the BMD).
We should develop and test the soft kill abilities .
We should also increase the Survivability of our satellites to both soft and hard kill .
I think recently announced build up model of rocket and satellite launch in few days instead of months gives us the good back up abilities.
I am of opinion we should not do provocative ASAT test sufficient to bring wrath of international community until the necessity warrants it.
Instead we should should focus on quickly obtaining the benefits of MTCR , wassanger pacts.. So that even if there is any fallout we would have benefited some at the least.
We shouldn't let go the advantages gained so far..
Somehow this research piece reminds me our lack of resources & need of Survivability in this domain , we are going to need asset / data / info sharing with US
And F16 deal going to be needed for that.
We should also increase the Survivability of our satellites to both soft and hard kill .
I think recently announced build up model of rocket and satellite launch in few days instead of months gives us the good back up abilities.
I am of opinion we should not do provocative ASAT test sufficient to bring wrath of international community until the necessity warrants it.
Instead we should should focus on quickly obtaining the benefits of MTCR , wassanger pacts.. So that even if there is any fallout we would have benefited some at the least.
We shouldn't let go the advantages gained so far..
Somehow this research piece reminds me our lack of resources & need of Survivability in this domain , we are going to need asset / data / info sharing with US
And F16 deal going to be needed for that.
Future strength of China-Pakistan axis is going to be very threatening and complex for India to manage mainly because of deep pockets of China, its established ways of stealing technology from others and pumping money to reverse engineer it, during which they learn most of the stolen technology, and a Pakistan controlled by Military-ISI which shuns down local resistance using bullets on its own citizens, along with a strategy to engage massive resources of India by constant flow of suicidal terrorists, as well as inciting religious Islamic sentiments within locals.
The West in its entirety simply does lip service as almost all have serious issues to attend to at home. For now, China may be soft on Myanmar, but once it gets its hold on Pakistan, Gawadar and the Arabian sea, its next move will be to get into top gear with Myanmar for permanent access to bay of Bengal. This is going to double the drain on India's treasury and who knows it can end into a cold war like scenario where the US incessantly engaged USSR into spending major chunk of their treasury in building these war toys and war games, ultimately destroying USSR economically and politically.
We are seeing some of its similarity with the India and China-Pakistan engagement. I have strong doubts of any sinceerity of alignment or support from any third country of real action at the time of need, unless India manages to tangle this third country with high stakes into this overall game plan.
One must learn to know about others and their intentions by their actions. All of China's past actions in the East China sea, the poking over islands with Japan, threatening Taiwan, literal occupation of SCS and allowing the US to conduct parade, salute the Spartly islands and go back. The chinese love it. The US has no intention and neither the guts to change the status quo. The simply posture up to pat their bloated ego and for consumption of the world. The so called world power is reduced to fighting street wars with local thugs and goons in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Libya, etc.
@VCheng asked a very relevant question on what are the cost-benefit analysis, besides financial. My strong opinion is that there is massive advantage by blocking China to access Pakistan by breaking it apart into Sindhudesh, Balochistan and recovering POK. We can then singularly focus on China and the next step it will take wrt Myanmar.
Understanding that China's ultimate motive is to reign supreme over the sea lanes, India will have one less frontier to worry about. We will definitely have to pay a "cost" for this, but the benefits from this are magnanimous. Imagine, India will be so close to Uyghur, the pain nerve of China. And our focus will become Tibet. India has to think BIG and several steps AHEAD of what China thinks.
I feel as satellite technology evolves we will move towards smaller and powerful military satellite, in a war scenario if we lunch 200 to 300 satellite and how far this ASAT missile will be effective we need to evaluate …In the current scenario, I will rather say we are in the right direction for developing space shuttle technology so that in future we can build something like USA X-37 B and we will go to space with chain drag all the enemy satellite back to earth.
A good way to understand this whole paradox is in the figure below
This is the result of a new world order post-Gulf War situation. Sourced from Space war & security by S Chandra Shekhar Source: http://isssp.in/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Space-War-and-Security-_A-Strategy-for-India.pdf
Technically the whole Cost vs Benefit Analysis can be summed up by the points as under
Cost
Technically
1. The test needs to be announced for the safety of all overhead manned and unmanned flights passing through the possible coordinate system. This implies we have to declare it first that ASAT test is happening for safety reasons.
2. Creation of debris of satellite impact which may have a long-lasting impact near that particular orbit and may have some parasitic effect or some impact possibility to nearby Space-based Assets.
3. The electronic simulation test that we carry out as part of BMD is a simulation-based analysis whereas a physical test involves verifying every bit of the same BMD capability under real live environment conditions with variables (like possible failure situations during 1st attempt of interception)
4. There is a clear distinction between ASAT being under BMD implying ISRO is not involved in this test at any time and its DRDO which is managing the whole system and context.
Geo-Political Considerations
1. The close cooperation of Pakistan and China in defence and space field implies a distinct possibility of a Pakistani ASAT ability over time. An ASAT ability is not so simple to achieve but with technically "help" for longer range Ballistic Missile beyond present 3000km or with existing ranges with fatter payload, this possibility always remains within the decision-making matrix. There can be marked an acceleration in this program especially wrt to CPEC aspect.
2. In International politics, many of the countries might condemn and limit their cooperation with us. There is a distinct possibility some of the nations with deep economic aid and cooperation from China may be propped up to lead this criticism. The chances of Sri Lanka or even Nepal towing a similar line cannot be ruled out as well.
3. In the context of China India issues, there would be a hardening of stance and increase in rhetoric to build an image favouring individual nationalistic citizens.
Benefits
1. In terms of capability with proven technology, the position of ASAT is part of a coercion ability which allows the countries with this capability to push forward their views and agendas with fewer compromises. This will clearly mean that ASAT test enables India with some meaningful scope of manoeuvre as China also understands that India won't get coerced easily.
2. In terms of technical blocks to be proven, the whole ASAT test is based on the backbone of BMD infrastructure or the ability to track Space-based assets in real-time with high accuracy. This implies the network of radar systems with optical and laser ranging systems to give a complete situational awareness is also proven as a by-product of this test. That will also mean the airspace above India and Indian subcontinent or areas of interest are fully under our surveillance, detection and reaction capabilities including our Sea Lines of Communications.
3. The incorporation of Space-based assets (offensive ASAT and defensive BMD) into our nuclear triad and network-centric domain will mean we have also moved ahead and is looking at maintaining a higher level of deterrence posture and cost of conflict for any state with India has moved to a higher realm. This, in turn, brings into a peace based timeline from survival perspectives and economic resources needing to take benefit of the gaps aspect.
4. In terms of this whole infrastructure and capability demonstration, a larger part of skilled manpower gets consumed into the whole apparatus of an industry to be part of the preparedness and post capability monitoring and work.
5. The capability demonstration also helps in future possibility of a rogue satellite controlled by a terror outfit to be taken out by India for itself or for its friendly nations by soft and hard kill options, thereby giving many smaller countries an umbrella of a protective system. (SAARC Satellite Example)
The ASAT demonstration done with due responsibility will only enhance India's position in the Scientific community and globally recognised as a true emerging power which has the best possible chance of evolving into a further responsible power. This, in turn, helps us build a solid position in the new world order emerging in the global arena.
This is the result of a new world order post-Gulf War situation. Sourced from Space war & security by S Chandra Shekhar Source: http://isssp.in/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Space-War-and-Security-_A-Strategy-for-India.pdf
Technically the whole Cost vs Benefit Analysis can be summed up by the points as under
Cost
Technically
1. The test needs to be announced for the safety of all overhead manned and unmanned flights passing through the possible coordinate system. This implies we have to declare it first that ASAT test is happening for safety reasons.
2. Creation of debris of satellite impact which may have a long-lasting impact near that particular orbit and may have some parasitic effect or some impact possibility to nearby Space-based Assets.
3. The electronic simulation test that we carry out as part of BMD is a simulation-based analysis whereas a physical test involves verifying every bit of the same BMD capability under real live environment conditions with variables (like possible failure situations during 1st attempt of interception)
4. There is a clear distinction between ASAT being under BMD implying ISRO is not involved in this test at any time and its DRDO which is managing the whole system and context.
Geo-Political Considerations
1. The close cooperation of Pakistan and China in defence and space field implies a distinct possibility of a Pakistani ASAT ability over time. An ASAT ability is not so simple to achieve but with technically "help" for longer range Ballistic Missile beyond present 3000km or with existing ranges with fatter payload, this possibility always remains within the decision-making matrix. There can be marked an acceleration in this program especially wrt to CPEC aspect.
2. In International politics, many of the countries might condemn and limit their cooperation with us. There is a distinct possibility some of the nations with deep economic aid and cooperation from China may be propped up to lead this criticism. The chances of Sri Lanka or even Nepal towing a similar line cannot be ruled out as well.
3. In the context of China India issues, there would be a hardening of stance and increase in rhetoric to build an image favouring individual nationalistic citizens.
Benefits
1. In terms of capability with proven technology, the position of ASAT is part of a coercion ability which allows the countries with this capability to push forward their views and agendas with fewer compromises. This will clearly mean that ASAT test enables India with some meaningful scope of manoeuvre as China also understands that India won't get coerced easily.
2. In terms of technical blocks to be proven, the whole ASAT test is based on the backbone of BMD infrastructure or the ability to track Space-based assets in real-time with high accuracy. This implies the network of radar systems with optical and laser ranging systems to give a complete situational awareness is also proven as a by-product of this test. That will also mean the airspace above India and Indian subcontinent or areas of interest are fully under our surveillance, detection and reaction capabilities including our Sea Lines of Communications.
3. The incorporation of Space-based assets (offensive ASAT and defensive BMD) into our nuclear triad and network-centric domain will mean we have also moved ahead and is looking at maintaining a higher level of deterrence posture and cost of conflict for any state with India has moved to a higher realm. This, in turn, brings into a peace based timeline from survival perspectives and economic resources needing to take benefit of the gaps aspect.
4. In terms of this whole infrastructure and capability demonstration, a larger part of skilled manpower gets consumed into the whole apparatus of an industry to be part of the preparedness and post capability monitoring and work.
5. The capability demonstration also helps in future possibility of a rogue satellite controlled by a terror outfit to be taken out by India for itself or for its friendly nations by soft and hard kill options, thereby giving many smaller countries an umbrella of a protective system. (SAARC Satellite Example)
The ASAT demonstration done with due responsibility will only enhance India's position in the Scientific community and globally recognised as a true emerging power which has the best possible chance of evolving into a further responsible power. This, in turn, helps us build a solid position in the new world order emerging in the global arena.
How would be a macro version of the recent success of ISRO with launch of 104 satellites steered towards predetermined targets in space be any different than a MIRV equivalent x 10?
You know, I linked to Kessler syndrome earlier -- the risk that destroying one satellite would create a chain reaction of destroying more satellites. Following links from there, you can find out about Envisat, one of the derelict satellites that could accidentally cause such an incident, and from there the e.Deorbit project.
This is the perfect anti-satellite demonstration. Conducting such a mission shows the ability to destroy a satellite cleanly while being ostensibly a civilian project aimed at making space safer for other projects. The outcome is the same, though: you get rid of a troublesome satellite; and in doing so you show that you have the capacity to get rid of other troublesome satellites if it were ever needed. But diplomatically it's completely different from launching a missile and blowing something up.
This is the perfect anti-satellite demonstration. Conducting such a mission shows the ability to destroy a satellite cleanly while being ostensibly a civilian project aimed at making space safer for other projects. The outcome is the same, though: you get rid of a troublesome satellite; and in doing so you show that you have the capacity to get rid of other troublesome satellites if it were ever needed. But diplomatically it's completely different from launching a missile and blowing something up.
India's Planned ASAT missile
As part of the BMD, AD-1 and AD-2 missiles will become standard by replacing the current AAD and PDV.
The AD-2 will have ASAT capabilities as the above slide show.