Line of Actual Control (LAC) : India & Tibet Border Updates

[STEPHEN COHEN]

It will be a long time after India recovers that OIC will recover... OIC is in a much worse economic soup than us.. thanks to oil demand plummeting

Oil price has. Already touched 30 Dollars , it is recovering

In 6 months it will be at 50 dollars

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

Only in this case sadak chap bully is occupying your living room from last many decades, just came to your kitchen and passing objectionable comments on your family members and you are trying to handle it "maturely" by asking him to go back to living room and praying nobody sees what's happening and tell relatives outside to avoid embarrassment.

We were never sure of International support in case the 2 front situation became True

But Now we can , in the post Covid world

So it is time to call China's bluff and take them.head on.

If Taiwan , Philipines and Vietnam can
Face the bully , we are in a much steonger position

 

[_Anonymous_]

True, I was in favour of cutting deal with Chinese instead of getting over motivated and go for confrontation. That was my thinking based upon past and present strength, I think cutting deal was more beneficial.

What sort of deal can you cut with China when almost the entire world's gaze is upon them? What are we giving the Chinese? An assurance that we won't side with the US & other nations when they come for China with whatever the actions they contemplate. And what are we going to receive in lieu by way of a deal from the Chinese?

A border deal with Aksai Chin returned to us with gift wrapping on it? Or perhaps an IWT style treaty? Or admission into the RCEP on our terms? Or unhindered access for our goods & services to China?

Assuming some of the above are conceded where does that leave us with the quad? Granted that international diplomacy like politics is amoral but the rest of the world aren't fools to put up with whatever we dish out by way of explanations nor are we in a position to brazen it out with them.

But GoI thought it's best to confront them, so now I am trying to understand what could be the reason behind it. We knew that China will create problem on border so what did we plan beforehand to contain it when we decided to go the present way.

The actual reasons will be out in a few months assuming this imbroglio will end soon in an amicable manner. Some of the reasons offered are in the posts above. The solution to it as long as the Pakistan problem persists is one of defensive approach. Be resolute, polite, humble, soft but carry a long stick. You could see Doklam as a template. If things persist in Galwan, India may well emulate the Chinese & organise a sit in in some area contiguous to the present spot.

We aren't interested in siding with any of the parties here. We wish to maintain equidistance. But we have a genuine problem with China, one which is unlikely to be resolved soon. To sum up our intention is to see that our rivalry & differences don't spill into enmity. To a certain extent the Chinese share the same perception with us . That's the reason why you haven't seen a shot fired on the LAC since 1976.

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

What sort of deal can you cut with China when almost the entire world's gaze is upon them? What are we giving the Chinese? An assurance that we won't side with the US & other nations when they come for China with whatever the actions they contemplate. And what are we going to receive in lieu by way of a deal from the Chinese?

A border deal with Aksai Chin returned to us with gift wrapping on it? Or perhaps an IWT style treaty? Or admission into the RCEP on our terms? Or unhindered access for our goods & services to China?

Assuming some of the above are conceded where does that leave us with the quad? Granted that international diplomacy like politics is amoral but the rest of the world aren't fools to put up with whatever we dish out by way of explanations nor are we in a position to brazen it out with them.



The actual reasons will be out in a few months assuming this imbroglio will end soon in an amicable manner. Some of the reasons offered are in the posts above. The solution to it as long as the Pakistan problem persists is one of defensive approach. Be resolute, polite, humble, soft but carry a long stick. You could see Doklam as a template. If things persist in Galwan, India may well emulate the Chinese & organise a sit in in some area contiguous to the present spot.

We aren't interested in siding with any of the parties here. We wish to maintain equidistance. But we have a genuine problem with China, one which is unlikely to be resolved soon. To sum up our intention is to see that our rivalry & differences don't spill into enmity. To a certain extent the Chinese share the same perception with us . That's the reason why you haven't seen a shot fired on the LAC since 1976.

No.matter what we feel like about maintaining Equidistance from China and US ,We will be sucked into the New Cold War between China and US
We will have to.side with US

This Covid disaster was nothing but a planned mass murder by China

They stopped Flights from Wuhan to Shanghai but Plane loads.of Corona carriers flew from Wuhan to US and Europe

Even Pacifist Europeans are calling it a Conspiracy

Now.all we need is Trump.to come back

Then it is Game On

A border deal with Aksai Chin returned to us with gift wrapping on it? Or perhaps an IWT style treaty? Or admission into the RCEP on our terms? Or unhindered access for our goods & services to China?

How about Pakistan' s HEAD on a Platter

 

[Sulla84]

Oil price has. Already touched 30 Dollars , it is recovering

In 6 months it will be at 50 dollars

But the production cuts are responsible for this upswing... So, OIC is shipping far less oil now..

 

[STEPHEN COHEN]

There's no doubt the Chinese are better prepared than India is. Even their infantry have better gear.

In Mountainous terrain it is the Artillery and Logistics that will decide the outcome

Food , Water, Fuel and Ammunition
And Satellite Imagery -- that is the key


In Mountainous Terrain , Just Two guys with a MMG can wipe out a Company
If they are perched on the Right Peak or are able to outflank and ambush the enemy. At the right time

 

[BlackOpsIndia]

Assuming some of the above are conceded where does that leave us with the quad? Granted that international diplomacy like politics is amoral but the rest of the world aren't fools to put up with whatever we dish out by way of explanations nor are we in a position to brazen it out with them

We are part of BRICS (C - China), SCO (China led) where does it put us with informal Quad? All these organisations are for formality, one more platform to talk and hopefully some minor agreement or understanding related to trade or anything. For Quad we didn't wanted Australia to join because they were unreliable due to Chinese exposure and after joining of Australia it's limited to exercise. They are nowhere close to NATO like pact where any nation will come to rescue of other because of Quad. US the biggest memeber of it cut massive deals with China time and again, selling us out.

Until and unless there is a binding treaty to contain China these platforms will be abused by larger members to put pressure on China and extract concessions and then letting go.

The actual reasons will be out in a few months assuming this imbroglio will end soon in an amicable manner. Some of the reasons offered are in the posts above. The solution to it as long as the Pakistan problem persists is one of defensive approach. Be resolute, polite, humble, soft but carry a long stick. You could see Doklam as a template. If things persist in Galwan, Insis may well emulate the Chinese & organise a sit in in some area contiguous to the present spot.

Best case scenario - We will give Chinese bloody nose.
Most probable case - It will be solved without a shot being fired. They are just trying to give a message.
Worst Case - Conflict breaks out, we lose more and then Cease Fire after intervention of UN and China going back or not returning whatever they captured.

Tell me even in best case scenario above do we think China won't try again? If this is for Doklam, won't they try again to avenge this by creating problem within next few months?

Don't you think this reasoning "China didn't attack after 1967 bloody lesson and once we hurt them like that again they will not come into Indian borders again" is a bit naive? Lacks pragmatism and very good chances won't hold if push comes to shove.

What then? This path does not have an end game, we will have to go back to table to end it and we won't be in strong position and may end up giving a lot more for durable peace. (Unstable borders helps China to deter industries trying to opt for India).

Thankfully due to geography and other factors there won't be a full scale war as nobody will be able to win it but if LAC become another LOC will we not get stretched too far thin?

 

[AbRaj]

Only in this case sadak chap bully is occupying your living room from last many decades, just came to your kitchen and passing objectionable comments on your family members and you are trying to handle it "maturely" by asking him to go back to living room and praying nobody sees what's happening and tell relatives outside to avoid embarrassment.

So ? You offer him your daughter?Who are you? Praveen Swahney the coward.
Just talk to someone actually posted there. It’s routine there. Even Indian soldiers cross LAC frequently, nothing unusual , just watch Gaurav arya interview today on YT. We are stocked and fortified there since quite some time. While Chinese are being transported in high pressure containers. What do you think who is at advantage there ?
you treatment is worse then the disease itself.
There is no NaharWho this time. We will settle past scores, if they try something adventurous. Don’t take silence as cowardice. IA knows what to do with Chinese.

Even if we agree with you, what kind of deal you want to cut with Chinese? They are claiming most of the Ladakh, entire AP, Sikkim and possibly couple of other states too. You want to sell all of them for your imaginary peace? What if after taking Ladakh they start offensive on Delhi and UP too ? Are you sure they will not try that ?

 

[randomradio]

Best case scenario - We will give Chinese bloody nose.
Most probable case - It will be solved without a shot being fired. They are just trying to give a message.
Worst Case - Conflict breaks out, we lose more and then Cease Fire after intervention of UN and China going back or not returning whatever they captured.

Tell me even in best case scenario above do we think China won't try again? If this is for Doklam, won't they try again to avenge this by creating problem within next few months?

Don't you think this reasoning "China didn't attack after 1967 bloody lesson and once we hurt them like that again they will not come into Indian borders again" is a bit naive? Lacks pragmatism and very good chances won't hold if push comes to shove.

What then? This path does not have an end game, we will have to go back to table to end it and we won't be in strong position and may end up giving a lot more for durable peace. (Unstable borders helps China to deter industries trying to opt for India).

Thankfully due to geography and other factors there won't be a full scale war as nobody will be able to win it but if LAC become another LOC will we not get stretched too far thin?

There is only one answer to that, take out Pakistan. Once Pak is out of the picture, then China will likely never act against India at the border.

 

[BlackOpsIndia]

There is only one answer to that, take out Pakistan. Once Pak is out of the picture, then China will likely never act against India at the border.

Yeah something we should have done last year itself but if we want to drag them in arms race, make them economically irrelevant while we grow we need 8-10years more. We can grow till that time, trade a few punches with Pakistan and become a credible power.

We need time and that seems to be strategy so far, that's why that WHO move kind of surprising.

 

[randomradio]

In Mountainous terrain it is the Artillery and Logistics that will decide the outcome

Food , Water, Fuel and Ammunition
And Satellite Imagery -- that is the key


In Mountainous Terrain , Just Two guys with a MMG can wipe out a Company
If they are perched on the Right Peak or are able to outflank and ambush the enemy. At the right time

Artillery in mountains? Not as effective as you think. A lot of targets will be in the shadow region of mountains and it's not possible to target those from the ground. Not to mention all the underground bunkers.

I don't think artillery will be more important than precision air strikes. It will require aircraft heading into enemy territory and then turning around or turning the sensors around to provide a targeting solution to artillery. And I believe we can achieve localised air superiority at our points of interest.

So the air force is the most important support component. The main component for mountain warfare continues to be the infantry, who actually have to walk up to the top and hold them. And I personally believe our troops living and operating from the mountains will fare far better than all those plain located troops of China.

Logistics goes without saying.

And the Chinese are making trouble at our border because they are acting against Hong Kong right now. So our modernisation takes into account China's attention being elsewhere for the next many years. Also, I don't believe China will do anything against a major power until they build up their navy and air force to a sufficient level first, which is more than a decade away.

 

[randomradio]

Yeah something we should have done last year itself but if we want to drag them in arms race, make them economically irrelevant while we grow we need 8-10years more. We can grow till that time, trade a few punches with Pakistan and become a credible power.

We need time and that seems to be strategy so far, that's why that WHO move kind of surprising.

We definitely need a decade more of high growth. And we also need infantry technology to catch up.

 

[shaxm]

I think Indians should not mess with Chinese. Because apart from other things mentioned in the thread, the Chinese military is also trained not just in the shaolin kung-fu but also in more lethal bajiquan , they get that training from the five elements temple at wudang mountains. There they are trained till they understand the secret of dao.

The Indian military has nothing in comparison. The karlipayattu level today is so bad they can't even break a stick.

 

[Hydra]

There is only one answer to that, take out Pakistan. Once Pak is out of the picture, then China will likely never act against India at the border.

Absolutely, they may create another pakistan via nepal or bangladesh but its a time consuming process

I think Indians should not mess with Chinese. Because apart from other things mentioned in the thread, the Chinese military is also trained not just in the shaolin kung-fu but also in more lethal bajiquan , they get that training from the five elements temple at wudang mountains. There they are trained till they understand the secret of dao.

The Indian military has nothing in comparison. The karlipayattu level today is so bad they can't even break a stick.

You are trolling chinese i guess.

 

[Aurora]

I think Indians should not mess with Chinese. Because apart from other things mentioned in the thread, the Chinese military is also trained not just in the shaolin kung-fu but also in more lethal bajiquan , they get that training from the five elements temple at wudang mountains. There they are trained till they understand the secret of dao.

The Indian military has nothing in comparison. The karlipayattu level today is so bad they can't even break a stick.

Please go and read more about Martial Arts.
Chinese martial art practitioners are regularly thrashed by Western martial arts practitioners and MMA fighters.
Kung fu, wing chun and all other other so call martial arts are what we call Fantasy based which looks elegant have a mystery around them but ineffective in actual combat. Sounds similar to PLA???

 

[randomradio]

Absolutely, they may create another pakistan via nepal or bangladesh but its a time consuming process

No chance of that ever happening.

 

[screambowl]

Because they knew what is the true boundary between Dogras and Tibettens.
If we have to negotiate a final peace along Aksai Chin, we must hit our original claim line and leave the highway alone but dominate the heights around it. This will force chinese to settle the border dispute amicablly.

I hope the DBO can be readied for combat mission on short notice.

 

[_Anonymous_]

We are part of BRICS (C - China), SCO (China led) where does it put us with informal Quad? All these organisations are for formality, one more platform to talk and hopefully some minor agreement or understanding related to trade or anything. For Quad we didn't wanted Australia to join because they were unreliable due to Chinese exposure and after joining of Australia it's limited to exercise. They are nowhere close to NATO like pact where any nation will come to rescue of other because of Quad. US the biggest memeber of it cut massive deals with China time and again, selling us out.

The BRICS & SCO are more of talk shops with the former fast losing it's relevance. Why are we in it then? To quote Nixon, it's better to be standing inside such a tent peeing outside than standing outside it & having an insider pee on you.

The Quad has potential. It can be converted to an economic grouping too. Our involvement with it is directly proportional to China's relationship on the ground with us. The more they rub us the wrong way the closer our engagement with the quad.

The workings in such groupings is usually contingent on a black Swan event. NATO though formed in 1949 acquired gravitas after the Prague spring & the USSR's intervention in Hungary. Similar organizations like the SEATO in SE Asia or CENTO in the MENA region went no where.You can see the Post Chinese virus world as one post such a black Swan event.

Until and unless there is a binding treaty to contain China these platforms will be abused by larger members to put pressure on China and extract concessions and then letting go.

There's always the possibility that may happen. A lot depends on the economic clout that China commands. If the leading powers of the rest of the world decide that they'd pool resources to take on the economic might of China, the storyline would change drastically.

Best case scenario - We will give Chinese bloody nose.
Most probable case - It will be solved without a shot being fired. They are just trying to give a message.
Worst Case - Conflict breaks out, we lose more and then Cease Fire after intervention of UN and China going back or not returning whatever they captured.

Why do you think conflict would break out over a border outpost in a remote valley & if it did we'd come out for the worse?

Tell me even in best case scenario above do we think China won't try again? If this is for Doklam, won't they try again to avenge this by creating problem within next few months?

They will. As long as we're up against Pakistan, they'd keep repeating it. Not that the 1967 incident didn't prevent gunfight. Just that they lacked the conviction & depth from the Chinese which wasn't what it used to be in 1967 & before. After 1971 it ceased considerably. Do remember that all the way from 1962 to 1971 we were neither a N power nor in a position to stand up to 2 adversaries. Yet we undertook both .

Don't you think this reasoning "China didn't attack after 1967 bloody lesson and once we hurt them like that again they will not come into Indian borders again" is a bit naive? Lacks pragmatism and very good chances won't hold if push comes to shove.

That one incident was sufficient to hold the peace right upto 2000. What you're seeing today is what China has been attempting since 2000.

What then? This path does not have an end game, we will have to go back to table to end it and we won't be in strong position and may end up giving a lot more for durable peace. (Unstable borders helps China to deter industries trying to opt for India).

Thankfully due to geography and other factors there won't be a full scale war as nobody will be able to win it but if LAC become another LOC will we not get stretched too far thin?

Answered this one. We've already been there.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Opposing Strategems On PoK; PLAGF High-Altitude Plateau Warfare Exercises in TAR; & ORBAT Of TMD

July 2018: China pledges US$2 billion in July last year to help Pakistan weather the economic crisis. January 2019: China pledges to...

trishul-trident.blogspot.com

What Has PLAGF Learnt From Dogra Gen Zorawar Singh's Conquests of Western Tibet

As I will explain in another thread on the imperatives for waging high-altitude plateau warfare, for waging such warfare, one will firs...

trishul-trident.blogspot.com

Galwan Valley Standoff & Future Trends In PLA Transgressions

There were 1,025 transgressions by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) between 2016 and 2018. The...

trishul-trident.blogspot.com

I think given our current stand off with the Chinese, these articles ought to be perused.

 

[Arsalan123]

There are no alternatives this time.stop construction and save yourself. soldiers thrown in water and detained. news like that doesn't make any sense. soldiers injured each other! looks more like a wrestling match lol.