P-77 is the final, definitive name.
— Parthu Potluri (@Parthu_Potluri) November 24, 2024
It's what the Govt. is officially calling it now.
Indian Nuclear Attack Submarine (Project 77) - Updates & Discussions
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Here's a definitive compilation of all the information I know (and inferences that have been made, by me as well as others) regarding the Project-77.
www.strategicfront.org
Project-77: An Analysis of the Indian Navy’s Nuclear Attack Submarine Program
The ‘P77’ program would encompass the construction of the Indian Navy’s first indigenously-built nuclear-powered attack submarines or SSNs. In the absence of much officially-released information, a lot is left to infer regarding what the boats built under this program would be capable of. But...
www.strategicfront.org
Excellent overview.Here's a definitive compilation of all the information I know (and inferences that have been made, by me as well as others) regarding the Project-77.
Project-77: An Analysis of the Indian Navy’s Nuclear Attack Submarine Program
The ‘P77’ program would encompass the construction of the Indian Navy’s first indigenously-built nuclear-powered attack submarines or SSNs. In the absence of much officially-released information, a lot is left to infer regarding what the boats built under this program would be capable of. But...
With Sheikh Hasina out of the picture, we might soon see the Pak Navy operating in the BoB under the guise of escorting its merchant shipping or exercises with BD.
If the US manages to build an outpost there, the BoB would no longer be the SSBN bastion that it currently is.
We'll need to increase underwater surveillance (SOSUS, UUV) + add more CG stations in the region sooner than later.
We need the S5 program to deliver and fast. We need to be able to hold Chinese cities at risk from deep in the IOR.
If the US manages to build an outpost there, the BoB would no longer be the SSBN bastion that it currently is.
We'll need to increase underwater surveillance (SOSUS, UUV) + add more CG stations in the region sooner than later.
We need the S5 program to deliver and fast. We need to be able to hold Chinese cities at risk from deep in the IOR.
France offers tech to make India Navy's submarines almost invisible in Indian Ocean Region
France has offered advanced pumpjet propulsion technology for India's Project 66 and Project 77 submarines, enhancing stealth, maneuverability, and operational effectiveness, strengthening India's underwater capabilities in the Indo-Pacific region
France has offered advanced pumpjet propulsion technology for India's Project 66 and Project 77 submarines, enhancing stealth, maneuverability, and operational effectiveness, strengthening India's underwater capabilities in the Indo-Pacific region
The pumpset propulsion technology, a sophisticated alternative to traditional propeller systems, is already operational in the French Barracuda-class submarine. The technology significantly decreases the acoustic signature of submarines, allowing for quieter operations and improved stealth capabilities. If the deal goes through, the submarines of India may become some of the quietest in the Indian Ocean Region, offering a major advantage for the Indian Navy in underwater warfare.According to navy chief, realistic timeline for delivery of first SSN is by 2036-37.
He also told that those Subs will be highly advance. We are all set to get some significant Desi military stuff in a decade of time.
After the arrival of Scorpene subs, India's naval power has increased substantially. We should plan from here onward that we keep getting one sub every year at least. By the time our new subs arrive, we should keep getting one Scorpene every year.
So according to CNS, IN's sub plans:
In 1999: 12x P75 + P75I & 12 IDDM SSKs were planned
P75: 5x inducted, 1x soon
P75I: Decision to be made
In 2015, 12 IDDM SSK plan was changed to 6 SSN + 6 SSK
P76 SSK: preliminary work ongoing.
P77 SSN: 2 sanctioned.
In 1999: 12x P75 + P75I & 12 IDDM SSKs were planned
P75: 5x inducted, 1x soon
P75I: Decision to be made
In 2015, 12 IDDM SSK plan was changed to 6 SSN + 6 SSK
P76 SSK: preliminary work ongoing.
P77 SSN: 2 sanctioned.
⚡️So according to CNS, IN's sub plans:
— Adithya Krishna Menon (@AdithyaKM_) December 4, 2024
In 1999: 12x P75 + P75I & 12 IDDM SSKs were planned
P75: 5x inducted, 1x soon
P75I: Decision to be made
In 2015, 12 IDDM SSK plan was changed to 6 SSN + 6 SSK
P76 SSK: preliminary work ongoing..
P77 SSN: 2 sanctioned.pic.twitter.com/qvwOuuHSAa
#WATCH | Puri, Odisha | On Navy Day 2024, Chief of the Naval Staff Admiral Dinesh K Tripathi says, "As part of our 30 years submarine building plan of 1999, wherein the government had approved that you could have 12 submarines which will be built in India with foreign assistance.… pic.twitter.com/fFywGpW6tP
— ANI (@ANI) December 4, 2024
I keep pointing this out. He didn't say 6 P76 submarines. If the submarine number is capped at 24, then where will the 3 additional Scorpene submarines go? The P76 number has to be three, not six.
Per the original 30 year sub building plan, IN envisaged building 2 lines of SSK, one of Western and one of Eastern origin. Had Amur-1650 worked out, P-75I would've been awarded to the Russians, almost on a platter. It would've balanced the cost and helped bulk up our sub fleet quickly.
I remember reading that a late variant Kilo costs about $300m each (deal involving Vietnam?) vs $500m+ for Western SSK. The cost of the latest AIP designs (like Type 212 C/D) is likely much higher. Would the MoD/MoF babus be able to bear the sticker shock (the Russians probably already smell blood with a RFN Kilo recently making a 'routine' port call) Can't wait for the commercial bids to be opened!
I remember reading that a late variant Kilo costs about $300m each (deal involving Vietnam?) vs $500m+ for Western SSK. The cost of the latest AIP designs (like Type 212 C/D) is likely much higher. Would the MoD/MoF babus be able to bear the sticker shock (the Russians probably already smell blood with a RFN Kilo recently making a 'routine' port call) Can't wait for the commercial bids to be opened!
The sanctioned numbers are set to change, what with P-17B being given clearance, thereby exceeding the frigate's sactioned strength. Higher numbers coming up across the board across all three services. The IN is climbing up to a 200-ship navy, and perhaps 300 ships once that's reached.
He began by saying the number 24 plan. Future plans are not being discussed here.
There's no need to restrict ourselves to 24 subs.
It's 3 subs only to get to the sanctioned numbers today, but it will comfortably exceed that. The first 6 will only come in between 2040 and 2050, the following 6 will have to replace Scorpene after 2050. You can expect 6 more SSNs as well. So the sanctioned strength will easily climb up to 35 or 40 by then.
Indigenous nuclear attack submarine design to take 4-5 years, another five years for construction
Last week, Navy chief Admiral Dinesh K. Tripathi said the first nuclear attack submarine would be ready by 2036-37
The design phase of the indigenous nuclear attack submarines (SSN) will take four to five years and another five years for the construction of the first one building on the experience of the ballistic nuclear missile submarine programme (SSBN), officials in the know said. Meanwhile, the third SSN leased from Russia is expected to be delivered to the Indian Navy in 2028 after delays.
Last week, when asked about the indigenous SSN programme, Navy chief Admiral Dinesh K. Tripathi said that “as per their timelines, 2036-37 was the very realistic timeframe when the first SSN can be inducted followed by the second one in a couple of years.”
The design and development should take four to five years, and the construction another five years, sources said. An SSN is different from SSBN but the experience of building the latter is helpful and the reactor and other specifications will be finalised considering the requirement of speed and endurance that SSNs need, the sources stated.
India has leased two SSNs INS Chakra 1 and 2 in the past from Russia. A third one that has been contracted on lease has seen several delays due to COVID and holding up finalisation of the hull that was to be refurbished among others and is now expected by end-2027 or early-2028, according to sources.
The SSNs are a critical requirement for the Navy to keep a watch over the Indo-Pacific as they give unlimited endurance to perform a variety of tasks with their endurance only limited by that of the crew.
October saw two major developments — the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) approved the indigenous construction of two SSNs estimated to cost around ₹35,000 crore while India’s fourth SSBN referred to as S4* was launched into water at Ship Building Centre in Visakhapatnam, as reported earlier.
India currently has two SSBNs in operation. INS Arihant with a displacement of 6,000 tonne and powered by an 83 MW pressurised light-water reactor with enriched uranium was commissioned into service in August 2016. The second SSBN, INS Arighaat (S3) which retains the same reactor and dimensions with several technological upgrades was commissioned end-August this year. The third SSBN Aridhaman (S4) is currently undergoing sea trials and is expected to be commissioned into service next year, sources said.
INS Arighaat recently fired the K4 Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM) with a range of 3,500 km, on which Admiral Tripathi said the launch was “successful” and the agencies concerned are examining as to what trajectory the missile took.
The S4* is bigger and more capable than the first one, INS Arihant (S2), that is essentially a technology demonstrator developed under the Advanced Technology Vessel (ATV) programme.
The first two SSBNs share the same reactor while the S4 and S4* have an improved reactor and can carry a good number of the K-4 SLBMs, as reported by The Hindu earlier.
The completion of the nuclear triad was announced in November 2018, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced on social media that INS Arihant had returned from its first deterrence patrol. The ATV project began in 1980s and INS Arihant was launched in 2009 by then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.
A robust, survivable and assured retaliatory capability is in line with India’s policy to have ‘Credible Minimum Deterrence’ (CMD) that underpins its ‘No First Use’ commitment. In 1998, India conducted nuclear tests under Phokran-II and in 2003, India declared its nuclear doctrine based on CMD and a NFU policy while reserving the right of massive retaliation if struck with nuclear weapons first.
The only country currently capable of reliably building an SSN in 5 years is the US.
The UK takes 10-11 years from keel-laying to commissioning of an Astute-class. France takes 13 years for Barracuda. If these 'sources' think we can finish it in 5 years, then it would seem they think building an SSN is the same as building an SSK. Which means these sources are probably not of the 'informed' variety.
If we are aiming for commissioning by 2036-37, then construction on the first boat HAS to start within the next 2 years. Which means design is either mostly done & dusted or at least very close to it.
S4 itself is bigger than the first two. This guy seems to have been sleeping under a rock for last 3 years.
If at all an improved reactor is in play (which I think is likely), then it must have come online with the S3 itself, not S4.
There's a huge 8-year gap between commissioning of Arihant and Arighaat, which can explain the ordeal of certifying a new reactor configuration (because everything - power, propulsion, safety etc is downstream from the reactor), whereas S4 is expected to be commissioned by next year itself.
That timeline doesn't gel with bringing an improved reactor config online. The S3 timeline does - even if you account for ironing out any issues with the first boat.
Not surprising about the sources since true extensive nature of such projects can only be known to the director level of people, and they won't be talking public. So its always a brief and even the drdo chiefs briefing would be highly optimistic version like this because we have ingrained yes sir culture among the rank.
This part of @Parthu's recent article stuck with me:
So, I made a chart of power to weight ratios of all IN subs (present & future):
Figures marked with a Tilda (~) are my guesstimates. Don't take those numbers literally.
You are right P77 should enjoy a major advantage, even if we were to assume P77 would be 9800 tons submerged.
So, I made a chart of power to weight ratios of all IN subs (present & future):
Figures marked with a Tilda (~) are my guesstimates. Don't take those numbers literally.
You are right P77 should enjoy a major advantage, even if we were to assume P77 would be 9800 tons submerged.
