India vs China - War Gaming Scenarios : Related News , Updates , Discussions & Analysis .

[_Anonymous_]

Sir who is RST? You frequently mention him I've been seeing for years, still don't know who he is.

Sir what makes you think China will come for us in 2030 and not later, like 2035.

I'd urge you to go through the current thread to understand the reason I'm claiming our war against the Chinese will precede the one against Taiwan. I can't possibly encapsulate 3 years worth of posts in one single post .

There're 2 posts #496 & #497 which capture to a great extent what I've been trying to put out.

In addition to the above I forgot the link the below linked podcast . Here's what I've posted in the other forum.

Buxom babe & Clutterji's latest squeeze Swasti Rao interviewing Brig ( Rtd) Narang & Jaydev Ranade ( ex Addl Secretary R&AW) on China's strategy to destabilize India.

Understanding China's strategy vis a vis India is a full time job . I've linked the earlier two podcasts on the same topic pretty much covering similar grounds with a twist .

Unlike the episode featuring Lt Gen Shukla & the one featuring Ambassador Shukla ( no relationship ) which focused on the inner workings of the CCP & it's relationship to the PLA , this one features Chinese strategy to handle India.

Apparently the Chinese were on to what Fauji Foundation was upto in Pahalgam & supported the latter with ISR for preparations in the form of satellite imagery as per Brig Narang. This is a huge development if true.

Both Mr Ranade & Brig Narang seem convinced that China wouldn't initiate anything with India but encourage Paxtan to fight their war equipping them with the arms required & the finances.

I'm not too sure I agree with the entire analysis for Paxtan is much too fragile to undertake what the Chinese desire which could well be a full fledged war . Besides as long as the US is around they'd definitely seek to prevent the outbreak of such a war by hook or by crook.

However if the internal security situation breaks down in Paxtan which is where we seem headed then Munira would be tempted to itch the scratch called India once again.

Chinese policy on India thereafter would be dictated by what happens in case of a decisive Indo Pak encounter. If whatever the action we undertake permanently destabilizes Paxtan to the extent of triggering its downfall then China will have us in their cross hair.

The IA has already openly accused China of colluding with Paxtan something they've neither denied nor acknowledged. Our MEA has maintained a studious silence.

Having bared their fangs ( prematurely in Doklam , Galwan & in Operation Sindoor ) there's no way they'd back off IMO.

Hence I very much see them calling on us before Taiwan to safeguard their western borders. More so since if they don't , we will definitely attempt something to pay back for what they've done in Pahalgam & later during Operation Sindoor apart from older issues bedeviling our relations.

The Blurb from the podcast. You may be interested : @Rajput Lion ; @Speedster1 ; @Jaymax ; @redpanda ; @ et al .

Eight years after Indian and Chinese troops faced off in Doklam, ThePrint’s #WorldViewWithSwasti revisits the tri-junction that once held the world’s attention and still silently shapes the region’s geopolitics.


In this deep-dive discussion, Dr Swasti Rao is joined by Brigadier (Retd) Anshuman Narang, a seasoned expert in artillery and defence strategy, and Jayadev Ranade, former Additional Secretary in the Cabinet Secretariat, Member of the National Security Advisory Board (NSAB), and President of the Centre for China Analysis and Strategy. Together, they unpack why Doklam remains a high-stakes flashpoint and how China is steadily reshaping the balance of power through infrastructure, diplomacy, and political influence in Bhutan, Nepal, and Bangladesh.


The episode explores how China’s six-step strategy in Bhutan mirrors its tactics in the South China Sea, how PLA rocket artillery and 5G surveillance tech are being deployed in the Chumbi Valley, and why the Siliguri Corridor remains India’s most vulnerable link. With Bhutan still resisting China’s Belt and Road Initiative and a possible "package deal" on the table, the conversation unpacks how the choices made in Thimphu can directly affect Indian national security. The discussion also takes a broader view, examining how China’s political and military moves post-Galwan, including space-based surveillance and pressure on India’s eastern borders, fit into a long-term plan that looks toward Taiwan in 2027.

 

[Subgradewalker]

My point of grouse is restricted to our preparations or lack of it as far as China goes.
Everything which hasn't got anything to do with the topic is extraneous to this discussion. Please refer to the thread title if in doubt & frame your response accordingly.

Your post which I've quoted is rambling & all over the place

Anything in here isn't restricted to one thing. Neither the implications of your comment. They might be more relative to china. My comment that you call rambling encompasses China too, if you would think not react.
If war gaming with china could be summed up in one opinion, we wouldn't need the forum.

It was an overall comment on the nature of your critique and I gave background to make you understand that just because you don't know what our army and ISRO is doing, doesn't mean they aren't doing it.
You say the leader isn't allowing ISRO and all.. are you saying the "leaderji" isn't taking overt and covert actions against them or there are none in the works.

The pvt industry, space industry.. have implications for our China policy. As well as our economy. If you will look at the thread it's War Gaming.. not how many satelite we have up space right now. The thread itself is all encompassing.
So, instead of being defensive.. just ponder over it. As I said, it's an evolving thought. A try to show you the other side of the coin.
That's what we do here. Discussion. We aren't actually in consultation with goi or military here.

Yes, my thoughts might be inarticulate.. doesn't mean they are not valid .

 

[_Anonymous_]

Anything in here isn't restricted to one thing.

In that case we can discuss everything from the implications of a caste census & its impact on the future of the politics on our country too as that would definitely have a bearing on how we go up against China even otherwise leave aside a war .

There's a reason this thread was created & discussions restricted to the topic.

Neither the implications of your comment. They might be more relative to china. My comment that you call rambling encompasses China too, if you would think not react.

Everything we do has an implication on national security. Not everything we do need find mention here . That's the limited point I'm trying to put across.

If war gaming with china could be summed up in one opinion, we wouldn't need the forum.

I thought there was always a diversity of opinion here. Or are you labouring under the impression that before you came there was only unanimity out here ?

It was an overall comment on the nature of your critique and I gave background to make you understand that just because you don't know what our army and ISRO is doing, doesn't mean they aren't doing it.

I was referring specifically to space based ISR assets unless you think Gaganyaan or Chandrayan can play a role in our future confrontation against China . Which part of it didn't you understand ?

You say the leader isn't allowing ISRO and all.. are you saying the "leaderji" isn't taking overt and covert actions against them or there are none in the works.

Don't put words in my mouth & attribute something to me which I haven't said. I clearly stated that vanity projects like a man in space etc can exist with utilitarian ones as well as scientific explorations & experimentations provided the budget keeps up with those tasks.

You can't expect ISRO to treat all such assignments with the same concern with the budgetary allocations being the same or with a slight incremental increase which is par for the course given inflation & the usual increase in budgeting provisions

If you saddle them with prestigious time bound projects in addition to other tasks make sure you also equip them to handle the extra tasks at hand . The surest way of doing so is increasing budgetary allocation exponentially not incrementally so they can go on a recruitment spree & dedicate time material & manpower resources to those priority projects.

Once again what I wrote in the previous post was in simple uncomplicated English. Which part didn't you understand ?

The pvt industry, space industry.. have implications for our China policy. As well as our economy. If you will look at the thread it's War Gaming.. not how many satelite we have up space right now. The thread itself is all encompassing.
So, instead of being defensive..

Everything has their place in this discussion . However we can't discuss everything in one go .

Being defensive ? You've got to be kidding me . @Ashwin thinks I'm a cyber bully & you're calling my attitude here as being defensive which is the very opposite of being a cyber bully.

Am I being defensive or are you being defensive & reactive ?

just ponder over it. As I said, it's an evolving thought. A try to show you the other side of the coin.
That's what we do here. Discussion. We aren't actually in consultation with goi or military here.

Everything that you've pointed out has already been discussed threadbare before. It's not as if you're bringing any fresh insights to the issue. Sorry to disappoint you .

Yes, my thoughts might be inarticulate.. doesn't mean they are not valid .

Yes , so please work on it if you want to engage constructively & add something of value or come up with new insights.

 

[Subgradewalker]

Yes , so please work on it if you want to engage constructively & add something of value or come up with new insights.

Going by your logic.. you havent presented any new insights either. Social media is filled with such comments , discussion or rambling. Whatever you may like to call it.

Neither I see anything out of the box suggestion coming from you. Its on the usual line.. fund, more manpower etc etc.. yeah , what an original insight or idea. Real value addition you did here.

You can't expect ISRO to treat all such assignments with the same concern with the budgetary allocations being the same or with a slight incremental increase which is par for the course given inflation & the usual increase in budgeting provisions

You're confusing media attention with internal workshare attention while being negligent of how these projects involve allover space sector of India.

Yes, there's focus on gagan yan more than other projects by the chief of ISRO and the media national and international media who covers India's space program. Neither of these things suggest that there's a budgetary restriction or importance not given to other projects.

And you're conveniently not factoring in the impact a manned mission in space will have on our space sector vis a vis China. Wether it's in terms of technology, psychology, boost to the business arm of ISRO, and it's trickle down effect on other ongoing and upcoming projects.

Our " hot war" with china isnt starting today neither will our rivalry stop at 2030. Neither is China only focusing on India.

In that case we can discuss everything from the implications of a caste census & its impact on the future of the politics on our country too as that would definitely have a bearing on how we go up against China even otherwise leave aside a war .

There's a reason this thread was created & discussions restricted to the topic.

I was referring specifically to space based ISR assets unless you think Gaganyaan or Chandrayan can play a role in our future confrontation against China . Which part of it didn't you understand ?

And which part of my original comment didn't have an implications on our "China war gaming" ? This is not a rhetorical question. I am genuinely asking, so I can explain it better to you how it has implications on our China strategy and our approach to it.

Secondly, yes GAGANYAN, chandrayan will have effect vis a vis our confrontation with China. Not by the system we send their. But the R&D done for it. The technology we apply, the economic boost etc as i mentioned above.

Again, no one's saying that ISR isn't important.. but it's wrong to presume that ISRO and GOI isn't actively working on it. My intention to mention the past discussion was to point this out. Just because it's not in the news right now, doesn't mean it's not in the works ( with apt attention from the people who actually affect the program) . Even ISR.

China have an advantage over us of more than a couple of decades. In every domain. That has been true since before 1991. And while i would like for india to make a leapfrog and match it today, ain't gonna happen.

Everything we do has an implication on national security. Not everything we do need find mention here . That's the limited point I'm trying to put across.

What I said had implications on the the topic of this thread. If I was going about everything that's important, me and you both can fill out few dozens book on our own.

 

[Subgradewalker]

I'd urge you to go through the current thread to understand the reason I'm claiming our war against the Chinese will precede the one against Taiwan. I can't possibly encapsulate 3 years worth of posts in one single post .

There're 2 posts #496 & #497 which capture to a great extent what I've been trying to put out.

In addition to the above I forgot the link the below linked podcast . Here's what I've posted in the other forum.

Buxom babe & Clutterji's latest squeeze Swasti Rao interviewing Brig ( Rtd) Narang & Jaydev Ranade ( ex Addl Secretary R&AW) on China's strategy to destabilize India.

Understanding China's strategy vis a vis India is a full time job . I've linked the earlier two podcasts on the same topic pretty much covering similar grounds with a twist .

Unlike the episode featuring Lt Gen Shukla & the one featuring Ambassador Shukla ( no relationship ) which focused on the inner workings of the CCP & it's relationship to the PLA , this one features Chinese strategy to handle India.

Apparently the Chinese were on to what Fauji Foundation was upto in Pahalgam & supported the latter with ISR for preparations in the form of satellite imagery as per Brig Narang. This is a huge development if true.

Both Mr Ranade & Brig Narang seem convinced that China wouldn't initiate anything with India but encourage Paxtan to fight their war equipping them with the arms required & the finances.

I'm not too sure I agree with the entire analysis for Paxtan is much too fragile to undertake what the Chinese desire which could well be a full fledged war . Besides as long as the US is around they'd definitely seek to prevent the outbreak of such a war by hook or by crook.

However if the internal security situation breaks down in Paxtan which is where we seem headed then Munira would be tempted to itch the scratch called India once again.

Chinese policy on India thereafter would be dictated by what happens in case of a decisive Indo Pak encounter. If whatever the action we undertake permanently destabilizes Paxtan to the extent of triggering its downfall then China will have us in their cross hair.

The IA has already openly accused China of colluding with Paxtan something they've neither denied nor acknowledged. Our MEA has maintained a studious silence.

Having bared their fangs ( prematurely in Doklam , Galwan & in Operation Sindoor ) there's no way they'd back off IMO.

Hence I very much see them calling on us before Taiwan to safeguard their western borders. More so since if they don't , we will definitely attempt something to pay back for what they've done in Pahalgam & later during Operation Sindoor apart from older issues bedeviling our relations.

The Blurb from the podcast. You may be interested : @Rajput Lion ; @Speedster1 ; @Jaymax ; @redpanda ; @ et al .

Agree, it makes all sense that they would try to engage India via proxy before they take a step towards Taiwan.

And here we've got to see how the whole thing plays out. Maybe like in 1965.. when pakistan crossed loc thinking IA won't cross IB, they got a lesson.. let's see if we can attack pak directly for a war waged by it using proxy.. will we engage with China directly and make it costly for them to do it. And that's why op sindoor was so important. It def sent a message to china on India's reaction to proxy war. Hence, you also see the less confrontational statement coming from their ministry after it.

Hopefully also gave a warning to Bangladesh and Maldives etc.. that the only casualty in india-china rivalry will be them if they act as a proxy. Pakistan is a diff case. That's a nutcase.

 

[HariPrasad]

Sir who is RST? You frequently mention him I've been seeing for years, still don't know who he is.

Sir what makes you think China will come for us in 2030 and not later, like 2035.

Nobody predict the date but what is important is that we should remain fully prepared. We have done great in last 5 years and we are all set to do even greater in next 5 years. In next 5 years MWF will come so as dozens of hypersonic missiles. We should ensure that we deter China and cause sufficient concern for them through adequately arming Chinese enemies. If Modi remains in power, India will surely do that. The biggest danger to India is even not China but Congress coming back to power.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Going by your logic.. you havent presented any new insights either. Social media is filled with such comments , discussion or rambling. Whatever you may like to call it.

Neither I see anything out of the box suggestion coming from you. Its on the usual line.. fund, more manpower etc etc.. yeah , what an original insight or idea. Real value addition you did here.

Yes well please show me where did I claim to have said I've presented out of the box suggestions & some deep penetrative insights into the issue. Alternatively I haven't run down anybody else's PoV too.

Besides were you tagged in the post I made by name ? There's a reason I tagged those members coz we've been reviewing this situation & discussing it for the past 3 years at least in this thread & in other threads since at least 2020 before a dedicated thread was created to discuss ONLY this issue.

Word of advice from someone who's seen life more than you have . Next time don't see a movie from the intermission & don't reply to posts you aren't tagged in especially when there're no great insights to be had & those posts have nothing of value to offer .

Saves you the time & energy you'd be expending getting into slanging matches like this .

Have a great day ahead !

You're confusing media attention with internal workshare attention while being negligent of how these projects involve allover space sector of India.

Yes, there's focus on gagan yan more than other projects by the chief of ISRO and the media national and international media who covers India's space program. Neither of these things suggest that there's a budgetary restriction or importance not given to other projects.

And you're conveniently not factoring in the impact a manned mission in space will have on our space sector vis a vis China. Wether it's in terms of technology, psychology, boost to the business arm of ISRO, and it's trickle down effect on other ongoing and upcoming projects.

Our " hot war" with china isnt starting today neither will our rivalry stop at 2030. Neither is China only focusing on India.


And which part of my original comment didn't have an implications on our "China war gaming" ? This is not a rhetorical question. I am genuinely asking, so I can explain it better to you how it has implications on our China strategy and our approach to it.

Secondly, yes GAGANYAN, chandrayan will have effect vis a vis our confrontation with China. Not by the system we send their. But the R&D done for it. The technology we apply, the economic boost etc as i mentioned above.

Again, no one's saying that ISR isn't important.. but it's wrong to presume that ISRO and GOI isn't actively working on it. My intention to mention the past discussion was to point this out. Just because it's not in the news right now, doesn't mean it's not in the works ( with apt attention from the people who actually affect the program) . Even ISR.

China have an advantage over us of more than a couple of decades. In every domain. That has been true since before 1991. And while i would like for india to make a leapfrog and match it today, ain't gonna happen.



What I said had implications on the the topic of this thread. If I was going about everything that's important, me and you both can fill out few dozens book on our own.

 

[Subgradewalker]

Yes well please show me where did I claim to have said I've presented out of the box suggestions & some deep penetrative insights into the issue. Alternatively I haven't run down anybody else's PoV too.

Besides were you tagged in the post I made by name ? There's a reason I tagged those members coz we've been reviewing this situation & discussing it for the past 3 years at least in this thread & in other threads since at least 2020 before a dedicated thread was created to discuss ONLY this issue.

Word of advice from someone who's seen life more than you have . Next time don't see a movie from the intermission & don't reply to posts you aren't tagged in especially when there're no great insights to be had & those posts have nothing of value to offer .

Saves you the time & energy you'd be expending getting into slanging matches like this .

Have a great day ahead !

Oh wow.. so I shouldn't reply to you. If you want just a select people to have Convo, their are better option.

A public forum means I can reply, no?

One one hand you're saying you didn't claim to have put of box ideas while adomnishing me for lack of "value" addition. Hypocrite much?
In three years you have reached to the conclusion of man power, budget.. I would say it's time you added more people in your internal discussion on a public forum.

Just cause you could understand the value, don't disregard it. I would suggest you to go and read my original comment with an open mind first. In a public discussion the "value", insights isn't limited to the one replied to. But also to the other people reading on forum.

You seem to have taken it way too personally than i intended for. My bad and I apologise to not make it clear that I was not targeting you or your views personally. But I still stand by my point, and no matter your age, it's still good to give a thought about younger ones opinion.

 

[RationalGuy]

I'd urge you to go through the current thread to understand the reason I'm claiming our war against the Chinese will precede the one against Taiwan. I can't possibly encapsulate 3 years worth of posts in one single post .

There're 2 posts #496 & #497 which capture to a great extent what I've been trying to put out.

In addition to the above I forgot the link the below linked podcast . Here's what I've posted in the other forum.

Buxom babe & Clutterji's latest squeeze Swasti Rao interviewing Brig ( Rtd) Narang & Jaydev Ranade ( ex Addl Secretary R&AW) on China's strategy to destabilize India.

Understanding China's strategy vis a vis India is a full time job . I've linked the earlier two podcasts on the same topic pretty much covering similar grounds with a twist .

Unlike the episode featuring Lt Gen Shukla & the one featuring Ambassador Shukla ( no relationship ) which focused on the inner workings of the CCP & it's relationship to the PLA , this one features Chinese strategy to handle India.

Apparently the Chinese were on to what Fauji Foundation was upto in Pahalgam & supported the latter with ISR for preparations in the form of satellite imagery as per Brig Narang. This is a huge development if true.

Both Mr Ranade & Brig Narang seem convinced that China wouldn't initiate anything with India but encourage Paxtan to fight their war equipping them with the arms required & the finances.

I'm not too sure I agree with the entire analysis for Paxtan is much too fragile to undertake what the Chinese desire which could well be a full fledged war . Besides as long as the US is around they'd definitely seek to prevent the outbreak of such a war by hook or by crook.

However if the internal security situation breaks down in Paxtan which is where we seem headed then Munira would be tempted to itch the scratch called India once again.

Chinese policy on India thereafter would be dictated by what happens in case of a decisive Indo Pak encounter. If whatever the action we undertake permanently destabilizes Paxtan to the extent of triggering its downfall then China will have us in their cross hair.

The IA has already openly accused China of colluding with Paxtan something they've neither denied nor acknowledged. Our MEA has maintained a studious silence.

Having bared their fangs ( prematurely in Doklam , Galwan & in Operation Sindoor ) there's no way they'd back off IMO.

Hence I very much see them calling on us before Taiwan to safeguard their western borders. More so since if they don't , we will definitely attempt something to pay back for what they've done in Pahalgam & later during Operation Sindoor apart from older issues bedeviling our relations.

The Blurb from the podcast. You may be interested : @Rajput Lion ; @Speedster1 ; @Jaymax ; @redpanda ; @ et al .

Your idea of China attacking us if we decisively crush their South Asian colony sounds plausible tbh. They may even attack when Pakistan is still in the war and are collapsing. But it will still be difficult as India in the eastern front is fully alert and armed to the teeth unlike 1962. The only issue is we don't have enough ballistic missiles to crush their airfields and prevent J20 and J16 from taking off.

BTW if China attacks while the US may not overtly support us you can be sure to expect a lot of weaponry from them as Uncle would want to see how well their weapons perform vis a vis China. We wont get F35 level stuff but probably AAMs, other types of missiles, EW equipment, ISR intelligence etc.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Your idea of China attacking us if we decisively crush their South Asian colony sounds plausible tbh.

They may even attack when Pakistan is still in the war and are collapsing.

China won't do anything before 2027-28. Their planned armed forces upgradation / modernization cum theater ization is expected to be completed then. Right now it's proceeding on schedule. Whatever is to happen will happen post the date I've given. Be it against Taiwan or India.

But it will still be difficult as India in the eastern front is fully alert and armed to the teeth unlike 1962.

The fronts on which war will be waged will be divided into 2 for all practical purposes. One front would involve the two armies slugging it out on the LAC & the other would encompass everything from the missile war to the cyber war to the ISR - espionage / counter espionage paradigm to the air war to you name it.

To a degree our war fighting capacities are still compartmentalized which is to say we still haven't theaterised & more importantly the war in the Himalayas actually favours a compartmentalized approach.

The idea would be like in Vietnam where they constructed a virtual tunnel city underground to hide their supplies & logistics being planned & conducted in that enormous tunnel network.

We're planning the same though our tunnels would be in the mountains. To what extent would it be ready when the day of reckoning comes I've no clue .

To make matters worse we'd be retiring our jawans recruited thru the old system by 2030-31 & the LAC will be manned by the 4 year contracted Agniveers which is bad news or at the very least not good news, as most of the senior retired personnel from IA are unanimous that mountain warfare is a specialised duty requiring anywhere between 6-8 years of experience ,with the good news being that newly retired veteran jawans would turn into reservists .

This is where we can still fight the Chinese to a stalemate. The problem is on the second front. That's where we're totally outclassed & that has the potential to bring down the performance of the IA turning what could be a potential victory if not a stalemate into a defeat . Don't ask me to elaborate on what the second front is & why are we outclassed, the entire thread from the past 3 years is choc a bloc with such information & reasoning by different members agreeing with this hypotheses as well as those arguing against it . You can go thru them if so inclined & arrive at your own conclusion .

The only issue is we don't have enough ballistic missiles to crush their airfields and prevent J20 and J16 from taking off.

BTW if China attacks while the US may not overtly support us you can be sure to expect a lot of weaponry from them as Uncle would want to see how well their weapons perform vis a vis China. We wont get F35 level stuff but probably AAMs, other types of missiles, EW equipment, ISR intelligence etc.

The US & their allies would rather we play the role of a Ukraine in baiting China into a war of attrition. We're trying our best to avoid it though having said that the chances we can avoid it is decreasing by the day from the way events are shaping up .

There was a time when we including me thought that if China goes up against India we'd receive the West's unconditional support. They'd keep us on drip feed like they've kept Ukraine plus the way the Trump administration has treated Ukraine ought to be an eye opener.

To add to this, the West especially Europe but also the US to a large extent have seen their supply / mfg lines severely extended / exposed as grossly inadequate for an extended war which barring China at this point in time nobody is prepared for. Russia's just about building up its resilience in this matter.

That's the sum total of my hypothesis on this issue. I may have left out some details but that there is the gist of the matter. Trust that answers all your questions & clarifies your doubts .

 

[Subgradewalker]

China won't do anything before 2027-28. Their planned armed forces upgradation / modernization cum theater ization is expected to be completed then. Right now it's proceeding on schedule. Whatever is to happen will happen post the date I've given. Be it against Taiwan or India.

The fronts on which war will be waged will be divided into 2 for all practical purposes. One front would involve the two armies slugging it out on the LAC & the other would encompass everything from the missile war to the cyber war to the ISR - espionage / counter espionage paradigm to the air war to you name it.

To a degree our war fighting capacities are still compartmentalized which is to say we still haven't theaterised & more importantly the war in the Himalayas actually favours a compartmentalized approach.

The idea would be like in Vietnam where they constructed a virtual tunnel city underground to hide their supplies & logistics being planned & conducted in that enormous tunnel network.

We're planning the same though our tunnels would be in the mountains. To what extent would it be ready when the day of reckoning comes I've no clue .

To make matters worse we'd be retiring our jawans recruited thru the old system by 2030-31 & the LAC will be manned by the 4 year contracted Agniveers which is bad news or at the very least not good news, as most of the senior retired personnel from IA are unanimous that mountain warfare is a specialised duty requiring anywhere between 6-8 years of experience ,with the good news being that newly retired veteran jawans would turn into reservists .

This is where we can still fight the Chinese to a stalemate. The problem is on the second front. That's where we're totally outclassed & that has the potential to bring down the performance of the IA turning what could be a potential victory if not a stalemate into a defeat . Don't ask me to elaborate on what the second front is & why are we outclassed, the entire thread from the past 3 years is choc a bloc with such information & reasoning by different members agreeing with this hypotheses as well as those arguing against it . You can go thru them if so inclined & arrive at your own conclusion .




The US & their allies would rather we play the role of a Ukraine in baiting China into a war of attrition. We're trying our best to avoid it though having said that the chances we can avoid it is decreasing by the day from the way events are shaping up .

There was a time when we including me thought that if China goes up against India we'd receive the West's unconditional support. They'd keep us on drip feed like they've kept Ukraine plus the way the Trump administration has treated Ukraine ought to be an eye opener.

To add to this, the West especially Europe but also the US to a large extent have seen their supply / mfg lines severely extended / exposed as grossly inadequate for an extended war which barring China at this point in time nobody is prepared for. Russia's just about building up its resilience in this matter.

That's the sum total of my hypothesis on this issue. I may have left out some details but that there is the gist of the matter. Trust that answers all your questions & clarifies your doubts .

You analysis makes for a very scary yet plausible case.

I have one thing to ask. Is PLAF, PLA ready to go in a war with India. I don't mean in terms of systems they will have. But the sheer deaths they will have to absorb psychologically. Taiwans geography make it plausible for PLAN to get away with less destruction to itself. Is china ready to? Is it internally cohesive enough to survive a war of attrition?

From what I remember CCP hasn't fought any direct war since it's inception and taking control over current China.

 

[babablacksheep]

You analysis makes for a very scary yet plausible case.

I have one thing to ask. Is PLAF, PLA ready to go in a war with India. I don't mean in terms of systems they will have. But the sheer deaths they will have to absorb psychologically. Taiwans geography make it plausible for PLAN to get away with less destruction to itself. Is china ready to? Is it internally cohesive enough to survive a war of attrition?

From what I remember CCP hasn't fought any direct war since it's inception and taking control over current China.

I would say more cohesive than India as a country.
What you are probably talking about is CCP ready for a major war with india, Given it will derail their Taiwan plans.
for now their priority is taiwan.

 

[Jaymax]

China won't do anything before 2027-28. Their planned armed forces upgradation / modernization cum theater ization is expected to be completed then. Right now it's proceeding on schedule. Whatever is to happen will happen post the date I've given. Be it against Taiwan or India.

Recent events unfolding in China might change the timeline. Xi's one man rule isnt going smoothly of late. Its too early to call which way but the timeline has shifted for sure.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Recent events unfolding in China might change the timeline. Xi's one man rule isnt going smoothly of late. Its too early to call which way but the timeline has shifted for sure.

I don't think so. While there's been some turmoil within the CCP I don't think it's reached the stage wherein they go beserk. At least not now or the foreseeable future.

As I've pointed out before, the PLA upgradation / modernization cum theater ization plans is due to be completed by 2027-28. Add a year or 2 as buffer especially given the massive shake ups within the PLA.

One thing is certain though. The invasion of Taiwan will happen under Xi's watch. He's also not getting any younger. However whether this unfolds as part of a carefully rehearsed choreography or whether he's rushed into it due to a combination of external & internal factors remains to be seen.

The latter also has a bearing on us as they could decide to target us before moving onto Taiwan .

 

[Shan]

The latter also has a bearing on us as they could decide to target us before moving onto Taiwan .

Unlikely. TW and IN are vastly different when compared. Why would I weaken my momentum and take chances of getting stuck in a prolonged war? If there is anything that the world should learn from recent wars, avoid getting into them if possible.

While I agree with the roadmap you've rolled out for the invasion, I think it would be unwise to begin an India centric operation considering the risks involved.

 

[Jaymax]

I don't think so. While there's been some turmoil within the CCP I don't think it's reached the stage wherein they go beserk. At least not now or the foreseeable future.

As I've pointed out before, the PLA upgradation / modernization cum theater ization plans is due to be completed by 2027-28. Add a year or 2 as buffer especially given the massive shake ups within the PLA.

One thing is certain though. The invasion of Taiwan will happen under Xi's watch. He's also not getting any younger. However whether this unfolds as part of a carefully rehearsed choreography or whether he's rushed into it due to a combination of external & internal factors remains to be seen.

The latter also has a bearing on us as they could decide to target us before moving onto Taiwan .

I am not suggesting timeline has been advanced. It could be actually delayed.

PLA hasnt fought a major war in a long time, there are structural issues with their forces and worse - no one knows the true capability levels due to rampant corruption. The rocket forces purge some time back was a reality check for Xi.

A mix of factors like economic difficulties, social turmoil could either force his hand or make his faction unable to start a conflict.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Unlikely. TW and IN are vastly different when compared. Why would I weaken my momentum and take chances of getting stuck in a prolonged war? If there is anything that the world should learn from recent wars, avoid getting into them if possible.

While I agree with the roadmap you've rolled out for the invasion, I think it would be unwise to begin an India centric operation considering the risks involved.

If there were any doubts on this front Operation Sindoor cleared it. China came out openly in favour of Paxtan lending whatever possible assistance they could including being present in their Op room.

The only thing left was their personnel taking the field alongside their Paxtani counter parts against India.

Do you think this has gone unnoticed in Indian establishment ? The Dy CoAS of the IA categorically stated as much in a Press Conference a month ago.

This co relates to the opinions by of the of panelists ( I believe it was Ambassador Shukla in the Global Order podcast ) in one of the 3 videos I've linked here in this very thread in the aftermath of Operation Sindoor.

He stated that there were two strands of thought in the senior echelons of the CCP. The CMC which is the apex body of the armed forces in charge of everything including framing & implementing policy measures seems inclined to cut India down to size whereas the political branch of it under the civilians led by Xi Jinping has consistently opposed this move on grounds antagonising India could be counter productive when China moves against Taiwan.

In the event the faction against Xi Jinping prevailed . If the Chinese go on to invade Taiwan without settling the border issue with India there's a valid fear we may open up a second front. So why risk it ? Might as well go up against India & settle the issue once and for all.

The risk is that what begins at the border may not stay there & what the CMC calculates may be a short sharp war could escalate beyond their calculations just like what we're seeing unfold in Ukraine. But having said that I believe the CMC / PLA faction is in a state of hubris. They'd go in to prosecute a campaign against India any which way .

The only way to mitigate it is to reach accommodation with India on the border issue . Do you see that happening ?

 

[_Anonymous_]

I am not suggesting timeline has been advanced. It could be actually delayed.

If Xi is desperate about leaving a legacy , he will move come what may. This is the reason I wrote earlier Xi's determined to take Taiwan under his watch & he's not getting younger. So postponing the issue is ruled out .

PLA hasnt fought a major war in a long time, there are structural issues with their forces and worse - no one knows the true capability levels due to rampant corruption. The rocket forces purge some time back was a reality check for Xi.

I'm venturing all this would be remedied or at least done so to a substantial degree. Whether it's good enough to achieve your objectives is another matter altogether.

Look when you're head of a large set up it's virtually impossible for you to keep track of minutae in spite of your best attempts . At some point based on the urgency of the situation at hand you have to take a call & you tend to back your instincts as a leader . Only time will then either vindicate or damn you .

And this is assuming everything is relatively stable in China . If it isn't & you're faced with overwhelming odds at home , the best way to galvanize support is to launch a war . So which ever way you dice it ,war becomes inevitable.

A mix of factors like economic difficulties, social turmoil could either force his hand or make his faction unable to start a conflict.

Usually when authoritative regimes are confronted with such a problem they resort to external aggression.

China itself has had a history of doing so . Under Mao one of the reasons he undertook the war of 1962 was to deflect criticism for the massive failure of The Great Leap Forward & the millions of deaths China suffered.

Besides they're already preparing relentlessly for their operations against Taiwan. So whatever the internal contradictions within the CCP , by 2027-28 they're well on track to achieve their plans of modernization / upgradation cum theater ization.

When you've achieved such a high level of preparation for you to launch an operation is then only a matter of assent from the big boss.

 

[Shan]

If there were any doubts on this front Operation Sindoor cleared it. China came out openly in favour of Paxtan lending whatever possible assistance they could including being present in their Op room.

The only thing left was their personnel taking the field alongside their Paxtani counter parts against India.

Do you think this has gone unnoticed in Indian establishment ? The Dy CoAS of the IA categorically stated as much in a Press Conference a month ago.

This co relates to the opinions by of the of panelists ( I believe it was Ambassador Shukla in the Global Order podcast ) in one of the 3 videos I've linked here in this very thread in the aftermath of Operation Sindoor.

He stated that there were two strands of thought in the senior echelons of the CCP. The CMC which is the apex body of the armed forces in charge of everything including framing & implementing policy measures seems inclined to cut India down to size whereas the political branch of it under the civilians led by Xi Jinping has consistently opposed this move on grounds antagonising India could be counter productive when China moves against Taiwan.

In the event the faction against Xi Jinping prevailed . If the Chinese go on to invade Taiwan without settling the border issue with India there's a valid fear we may open up a second front. So why risk it ? Might as well go up against India & settle the issue once and for all.

The risk is that what begins at the border may not stay there & what the CMC calculates may be a short sharp war could escalate beyond their calculations just like what we're seeing unfold in Ukraine. But having said that I believe the CMC / PLA faction is in a state of hubris. They'd go in to prosecute a campaign against India any which way .

The only way to mitigate it is to reach accommodation with India on the border issue . Do you see that happening ?

You've made valid points but they tend to hinge on a lot of circumstances going right within the PLA, China, CCP, and their allies. However, I do get we are wargaming. Also, factions within the PLA and CCP are not restricted to the ones that you have pointed out. There are few others present that fly under the radar.

Can the CCP come intact in one piece in case of a failure? That is actually what has persistently been raised by pragmatists within the party. They are preparing for a two front war themselves. However, I have repeatedly stated - Preparing for war and implementing war tactics are different. The very point that older generations of the CCP cadre have repeatedly written about. I acknowledge that border issues with China continue to persist.

Since the TW invasion comes after or along with Indian offensive:

I have linked what could be how things unfold in case of TW invasion failure. Would you be willing to head into a war with India (take losses and subject yourself to other aspects that come with any war worldwide) and then lunge into TW?

Many Ways to Fail: The Costs to China of an Unsuccessful Taiwan Invasion

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be an extremely difficult military, complex operation. China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has been thinking seriously since the early 2000s about what such a landing would require. For over two decades, its force development efforts have been focused on the...

www.usip.org

https://digitalcommons.ndu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1118&context=strategic-forums

 

[Subgradewalker]

Wouldn't it be better for China to have pakistan engage India using pak and bang front. Their proxies in Myanmar are also there. I realise how similar this is to Israel's situation as I write it.

Then caution India against joining the Taiwan war by threatening to start assualt on North eastern borders.
Depending on the govt that is at the helm in India, the establishment might even come to an understanding with China to stay out of each other's business directly.
That's from CCP perspective. A friendly indian govt might even propose the idea instead of being proposed.