Yeah, numbers from both sides are fake. I stopped looking at them long ago.
The only thing visible is Russia keeps taking territories while Ukraine keeps getting pushed back.
And what can be verified is Russia hands over more bodies to Ukraine than vice versa.
Russia and Ukraine carried out a major repatriation of fallen service members on Thursday, with Moscow handing over the remains of 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers in exchange for 41 Russian bodies.
www.themoscowtimes.com
Russia and Ukraine carried out a major repatriation of fallen service members on Thursday, with Moscow handing over the remains of 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers in exchange for 41 Russian bodies.
Here's another from last year.
Russia receives 27 soldiers' bodies as the warring sides continue their large-scale prisoner swap deal.
www.bbc.com
The bodies of 1,212 Ukrainian soldiers have been returned from Russia, Kyiv says, as part of a prisoner exchange agreement between the warring countries.
In return Russia received 27 bodies, Moscow's chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsky said.
There have been over 70 such transfers.
This article deserves to be taken seriously, with one caveat: Stubb is offering a political interpretation based on recent Ukrainian figures, not a definitive, independent assessment.
The strongest point is that Stubb did indeed say this at Brookings on April 13: a casualty ratio of 1:5, approximately 150 to 157 Russian soldiers killed per square kilometer, and a Ukraine that he considers “in a much better position than at any previous stage of the war.” The Brookings transcript and corroborating reports make this clear.
The second solid point is that the 95% attributed to drones did not come out of thin air. Stubb did indeed cite this figure, and it fits a documented trend: Reuters had already reported in August 2025, via Fedorov, that 80 to 90% of Russian targets struck were hit by drones, and then other sources in early 2026 cited figures of over 80%. So 95% is a higher estimate, but not inconsistent with Ukraine’s recent trajectory.
The third solid point is the figure of 33,000 enemy drones destroyed in March. It is clearly cited by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, by Fedorov, and reported by CEPA and other media outlets. It is therefore not a baseless rumor.
Where caution is needed is regarding the analytical significance of these figures. The 1:5 ratio is much more favorable to Ukraine than the CSIS’s earlier estimates, which were closer to 1:2 to 1:2.5. This could mean three things at once: Ukrainian drones have genuinely improved the attrition ratio, the period under observation is particularly favorable to Kyiv, and Stubb is also selecting the most politically advantageous figures.
So, if we take this seriously, the correct conclusion would be:
1. Attrition appears to have worsened significantly for Russia.
If the 1:5 ratio is even roughly accurate for the recent period, this means the war is costing Moscow far more in terms of manpower than before.
2. Ukrainian drone superiority has likely become a defining factor, not a marginal one.
The figures on destruction, interceptions, and drone loss rates all point in this direction.
3. This reinforces the idea that the war is becoming a war of attrition rather than one of breakthrough.
Whoever best replaces their losses—their drones, their lines of communication, and their units—retains the advantage, even without a major, spectacular offensive.
4. If Ukraine today needs less “American-style” Western support than at the start, it is because it is better at converting the aid it receives into attrition gains.
And the article’s final point should not be overlooked either: Stubb emphasizes Ukraine’s ability to strike at a range of 3,000 km. Even if this isn’t the core of the paper, it means he sees not only a Ukraine that is better at defense, but also a Ukraine that is better at projecting a threat.
So my assessment would be:
This is an important signal.
Not because every figure is gospel.
But because, taken together, these figures all tell the same story: Ukraine today seems better able than ever before to use drone technology to wear down Russian forces.
And if this holds true over several months, then:
the inexorable advance is no longer inexorable.