India - Pakistan Standoff 2019

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vstol Jockey said:
The CPEC becomes defunct and non functional if India takes over POK and GB. The failure will be on China and not Pakistan.
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Yes cpec become defunct, but the loan doesn't. Loan was given for infrastructure development which Pakistan agreed too.
The road part on POK+GB is less than 2billion in total. Major roads are built in rest of Pakistan. development of deep sea port. And nearly 40 billion of that 60 billion is in power & other sectors inside Pakistan with massive kickbacks both to Chinese & Pakistanis.

What header loan is given is less important - Lets, Say India gives some loans under India Africa friendship header to some African country, whatever header be, it can even change in future, but the term of loan at its maturity remains.
 
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People here far too gung ho on POK.

Fact 1 : You will not get POK from Pak without a nuclear war.You can take some posts in LOC,but won't get away with taking any major urban centres there.You cant take it in a lightning war,it would be mountain warfare with huge casualities stretching months.

Fact 2: It is the worst idea to take in POK people into india.If you think valley kashmiris are bad,wait till you see hardcore 'azad' kashmiri jihadis.Total burden and waste on indian taxpayer.And they will further demographically overwhelm jammu and ladakh.Let these jihadis rot with pakistan.On paper its our territory,but no need to realise the claim on the ground.

Strangulate pakistan economically and diplomatically and keep border in state of permanent escalation and keep pounding.Fund baloch in balochistan against pak occupation and use afghan intelligence to fund pashtuns.Eventually if talibs and afghan govt make a deal (which they will have to as no side can outright win),fund even talibs against pak who dont have any money.FATF,no free water,no overflight,no trade freebies,eventually economic sanctions in a decade(if they last that long).Undercut their exports.

People talking about CPEC and POK are being alarmist.CPEC is a total lemon.The road connection between xinjiang and pak through POK is horrible terrain through mountains,which is closed for months due to snowfall,frequent landslides,and transport costs are huge due to the enormous distances involved to get to main urban centres.CPEC connectivity and trade is a total lemon.All bulk trade will continue through economically viable ports only.Gwadar will be there regardless of POK,as it gives china a base in warm waters of Indian ocean.But it actually works against pak,because as long as pak has chinese presence usa will undermine pakistan.Right now they still need the Pakistanis for taliban talks,and already they dont care about pak concens.What will happen when they don't need pak for taliban talks.It is better to have USA on your side than china.
 
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Austerlitz said:
People here far too gung ho on POK.

Fact 1 : You will not get POK from Pak without a nuclear war.You can take some posts in LOC,but won't get away with taking any major urban centres there.You cant take it in a lightning war,it would be mountain warfare with huge casualities stretching months.

Fact 2: It is the worst idea to take in POK people into india.If you think valley kashmiris are bad,wait till you see hardcore 'azad' kashmiri jihadis.Total burden and waste on indian taxpayer.And they will further demographically overwhelm jammu and ladakh.Let these jihadis rot with pakistan.On paper its our territory,but no need to realise the claim on the ground.

Strangulate pakistan economically and diplomatically and keep border in state of permanent escalation and keep pounding.Fund baloch in balochistan against pak occupation and use afghan intelligence to fund pashtuns.Eventually if talibs and afghan govt make a deal (which they will have to as no side can outright win),fund even talibs against pak who dont have any money.FATF,no free water,no overflight,no trade freebies,eventually economic sanctions in a decade(if they last that long).Undercut their exports.

People talking about CPEC and POK are being alarmist.CPEC is a total lemon.The road connection between xinjiang and pak through POK is horrible terrain through mountains,which is closed for months due to snowfall,frequent landslides,and transport costs are huge due to the enormous distances involved to get to main urban centres.CPEC connectivity and trade is a total lemon.All bulk trade will continue through economically viable ports only.Gwadar will be there regardless of POK,as it gives china a base in warm waters of Indian ocean.But it actually works against pak,because as long as pak has chinese presence usa will undermine pakistan.Right now they still need the Pakistanis for taliban talks,and already they dont care about pak concens.What will happen when they don't need pak for taliban talks.It is better to have USA on your side than china.
Click to expand...
Excellent write up. Just a couple of points to rebut your case. As long as PoK exists, it's a link between Pak & China. It's Pakistan's jugular vein so to speak off.Cut it off and the link along with CPEC ceases to exist. To elaborate while the Khunjerab Pass connecting PoK with Xinjiang has its own perils and is definitely not an all weather pass or even a safe one, the Wakhan Corridor is & China has already established a base there. Their next step would be to link that with KPK.They're more than a few steps ahead of us. That's why seizure of PoK becomes all the more imperative.

The West and the particularly the East ( Japan, SK & especially Taiwan) needs to be made aware that their security likes in the West ie if China succeeds in making Gwadar/ Jiwani operational, it'd secure its energy lifeline and the countdown to invading Taiwan would've begun. Add to that the Senkakus and other disputed islands in the SCS Yellow sea & the ECS.

While seizing PoK will be a full fledged campaign & also being a prime candidate for a N war, we must bide our time. Involve the US & it's western allies to defang Pakistan before we move in. The justifications are given above. Further, where does it say we need to inherit the Mirpuris in PoK? Drive them away.

Finally, Pakistan is in such dire straits that it really can't be bothered if the US is against it or not, if China continues to benefit it in every way possible including pick up its tabs. It's the dream of the PA to inveigle China into Pakistan's disputes with India and what's more its succeeding in it. The more China invests in Pakistan the more its obliged to protect its investments.

We need to break the proverbial Gordian knot ASAP.
 
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First Rafale Handed Over to Qatar

How much credible this news is?? and what are its implecations??

Qatari personnel will be trained at Base Aérienne 118 Mont-de-Marsan in southwestern France, Rochefort, and the Joint Intelligence Training Institute in Strasbourg. The first batch of pilots trained for Qatar in November 2017 were Pakistani exchange officers.
 
_Anonymous_ said:
Excellent write up. Just a couple of points to rebut your case. As long as PoK exists, it's a link between Pak & China. It's Pakistan's jugular vein so to speak off.Cut it off and the link along with CPEC ceases to exist. To elaborate while the Khunjerab Pass connecting PoK with Xinjiang has its own perils and is definitely not an all weather pass or even a safe one, the Wakhan Corridor is & China has already established a base there. Their next step would be to link that with KPK.They're more than a few steps ahead of us. That's why seizure of PoK becomes all the more imperative.

The West and the particularly the East ( Japan, SK & especially Taiwan) needs to be made aware that their security likes in the West ie if China succeeds in making Gwadar/ Jiwani operational, it'd secure its energy lifeline and the countdown to invading Taiwan would've begun. Add to that the Senkakus and other disputed islands in the SCS Yellow sea & the ECS.

While seizing PoK will be a full fledged campaign & also being a prime candidate for a N war, we must bide our time. Involve the US & it's western allies to defang Pakistan before we move in. The justifications are given above. Further, where does it say we need to inherit the Mirpuris in PoK? Drive them away.

Finally, Pakistan is in such dire straits that it really can't be bothered if the US is against it or not, if China continues to benefit it in every way possible including pick up its tabs. It's the dream of the PA to inveigle China into Pakistan's disputes with India and what's more its succeeding in it. The more China invests in Pakistan the more its obliged to protect its investments.

We need to break the proverbial Gordian knot ASAP.
Click to expand...


In my view more chinese dependance of pak is actually to India's benefit.
First of all next 2 decades world politics will centre around china- usa geopolitical rivalry.China overtly supporting pakistan works to our benefit,as we can reap the benefits of US co-operation and particularly diplomatic clout to gain entry into several technology control regimes.USA is still and will remain far stronger technologically and economically than china,and its global clout and network of alliances and bases worldwide could be invaluable to us.Unlike pakistan,we are too big to become dependant on USA,but not big enough that we cant meaningfully gain advantage from such an association.

Gwadar is overblown in importance,we/usa can interdict the shipping in gulf and arabian sea itself.Pak navy is a joke,and chinese cant station too many ships there.2nd with the north sea route opening up and chinese increasing energy exports from russia they have already found an alternative to atleast partially offset their needs.Also in 20 yrs time gas and oil will be on their last legs.Finally gwadar is in a disturbed area and baloch will frequently blow up any pipelines causing disruption.

Also chinese control over pakistan will also hasten breakup of pakistan internally.As a proclaimed bastion of islam,it will become difficult for ruling elite to justify the kafir rule of the 'the land of the pure' particularly the masters of xinjiang.Particualrly the pakistani tribal people(pashtun,baluch) are proud and unruly and will not take well to chinese buying up land and dictating terms to them.This will create huge internal pressures on pak security establishment.Chinese sex trafficking rings and pak slave labour is only a beginning.
Moreover china will destroy their internal industries(whatever left) and drown them in perpetual debt.Eventually china wil do far more damage to pakistan than India has been able to after 1971.
Without the china factor the west could use pakistan as a prop to contain rising india.And western support is far more dangerous than chinese support.China as it happens is our adversary anyway.
 
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Jaymax said:
What is the facesaver for the Pak Muqaddas Fauj. Without one or at least an explanation (like 71 was internal betrayal), the general population will lynch them in the streets
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They can always say that they have saved Pakistan and people of Pakistan from bankruptcy.
 
vstol Jockey said:
They can always say that they have saved Pakistan and people of Pakistan from bankruptcy.
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Will it work enough for them to maintain their primacy in Pakistan? Their ultimate goal is to maintain their power but any weakness will be exploited by the politicians who have been smarting under the fauji boot for too long now
 
_Anonymous_ said:
Excellent write up. Just a couple of points to rebut your case. As long as PoK exists, it's a link between Pak & China. It's Pakistan's jugular vein so to speak off.Cut it off and the link along with CPEC ceases to exist. To elaborate while the Khunjerab Pass connecting PoK with Xinjiang has its own perils and is definitely not an all weather pass or even a safe one, the Wakhan Corridor is & China has already established a base there. Their next step would be to link that with KPK.They're more than a few steps ahead of us. That's why seizure of PoK becomes all the more imperative.

The West and the particularly the East ( Japan, SK & especially Taiwan) needs to be made aware that their security likes in the West ie if China succeeds in making Gwadar/ Jiwani operational, it'd secure its energy lifeline and the countdown to invading Taiwan would've begun. Add to that the Senkakus and other disputed islands in the SCS Yellow sea & the ECS.

While seizing PoK will be a full fledged campaign & also being a prime candidate for a N war, we must bide our time. Involve the US & it's western allies to defang Pakistan before we move in. The justifications are given above. Further, where does it say we need to inherit the Mirpuris in PoK? Drive them away.

Finally, Pakistan is in such dire straits that it really can't be bothered if the US is against it or not, if China continues to benefit it in every way possible including pick up its tabs. It's the dream of the PA to inveigle China into Pakistan's disputes with India and what's more its succeeding in it. The more China invests in Pakistan the more its obliged to protect its investments.

We need to break the proverbial Gordian knot ASAP.
Click to expand...

We need to through out all PoK and J&K citizens who are not ethnic Indians (most are turk and CA origin). That will reduce the number of jihadis to handle. Only ethnic Indians need be considered.
 
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Austerlitz said:
People here far too gung ho on POK.

Fact 1 : You will not get POK from Pak without a nuclear war.You can take some posts in LOC,but won't get away with taking any major urban centres there.You cant take it in a lightning war,it would be mountain warfare with huge casualities stretching months.

Fact 2: It is the worst idea to take in POK people into india.If you think valley kashmiris are bad,wait till you see hardcore 'azad' kashmiri jihadis.Total burden and waste on indian taxpayer.And they will further demographically overwhelm jammu and ladakh.Let these jihadis rot with pakistan.On paper its our territory,but no need to realise the claim on the ground.

Strangulate pakistan economically and diplomatically and keep border in state of permanent escalation and keep pounding.Fund baloch in balochistan against pak occupation and use afghan intelligence to fund pashtuns.Eventually if talibs and afghan govt make a deal (which they will have to as no side can outright win),fund even talibs against pak who dont have any money.FATF,no free water,no overflight,no trade freebies,eventually economic sanctions in a decade(if they last that long).Undercut their exports.

People talking about CPEC and POK are being alarmist.CPEC is a total lemon.The road connection between xinjiang and pak through POK is horrible terrain through mountains,which is closed for months due to snowfall,frequent landslides,and transport costs are huge due to the enormous distances involved to get to main urban centres.CPEC connectivity and trade is a total lemon.All bulk trade will continue through economically viable ports only.Gwadar will be there regardless of POK,as it gives china a base in warm waters of Indian ocean.But it actually works against pak,because as long as pak has chinese presence usa will undermine pakistan.Right now they still need the Pakistanis for taliban talks,and already they dont care about pak concens.What will happen when they don't need pak for taliban talks.It is better to have USA on your side than china.
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That's exactly what I think, we need to continue this for the next two decades and when our per capita income is 3-4 times of Pakistan, the people of POJ&K will themselves decide what they want. Mirpur is a posh city because many first generation European Pakistanis sent their wealth back to their families but the coming generations have their families in Europe itself and it will have impact on local economy of POJ&K itself. 60% of British Pakistanis are from POJ&K.In 2 decades we would have enough diplomatic clout too if we want to go for a full on invasion.
 
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vstol Jockey said:
The best way IMHO for Pakistan to come out of the mess is to get into a deal with India. Let them hand over POK+GB to us for $10b. This will help them survive, settle the 72yr old dispute and after that we can have a no-war pact with Pakistan and will also help them rebuild their industry and economy.
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The problem of pakistan is not their claim for kashmir or bankruptsy, but what makes them claim for kashmir - Islamic religion. Show me a place where muslims have setteled priblems and got along with neighbours. If kashmir is solved, then they will find something else so that they can remain an irritant. Muslims in India don't have a Kashmir issue, yet they still are a problem.

They way to solve this would be to understand that the only way to solve it is to get rid of them. In case of Pakistan, use their touble making in Kashmir and bait them using it to completely destroy them, instead of solving the middle problem (Kashmir issue), which is only a derivative of other problems.

What I meant is, we should not give it a chance to solve itself, but escalate the problem with the aim of complete destruction of pakistan.
 
vstol Jockey said:
The best way IMHO for Pakistan to come out of the mess is to get into a deal with India. Let them hand over POK+GB to us for $10b. This will help them survive, settle the 72yr old dispute and after that we can have a no-war pact with Pakistan and will also help them rebuild their industry and economy.
Click to expand...

When the whole country is on sale for $60b , $10b for just POK+GB looks a very good deal .
 
drunken-monk said:
First Rafale Handed Over to Qatar

How much credible this news is?? and what are its implecations??

Qatari personnel will be trained at Base Aérienne 118 Mont-de-Marsan in southwestern France, Rochefort, and the Joint Intelligence Training Institute in Strasbourg. The first batch of pilots trained for Qatar in November 2017 were Pakistani exchange officers.
Click to expand...
Fake, hoax, FUD from John Lake.
 
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Star Wars said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1115988129733926913


"jo quome Apne saheedo Ko bhool Jaya krti h woh quome MIT Jaya krti h!!!!"

Is he pointing his guns at Gafoora ???!!!
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Nope he is pointing at his own fate..... A chief who couldn't give his fallen a proper funeral..... What ever may be the compulsion.... The feeling is not great..... But they are used to this... that's a different matter...
 
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nair said:
Nope he is pointing at his own fate..... A chief who couldn't give his fallen a proper funeral..... What ever may be the compulsion.... The feeling is not great..... But they are used to this... that's a different matter...
Click to expand...

"We have decided, for the future of our country — forget the outside pressure — we will not allow armed militias to operate anymore,’’
“The Pakistan Army created them"

Was wondering, IK took a dig at PA regarding armed militia's. Qureshi taking a dig at IK and wanting his Job. Also twitter rumors of a tiff between Bilal and Bajwa. With Bajwa backing IK, but most of the other establishment backing Bilal. Could be BS, but could be more...


https://twitter.com/x/status/1115329168877805568


Another good Pakistani based handle to follow.
 
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