India - Pakistan Standoff 2019

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Gautam said:
@BlackOpsIndia @vstol Jockey @Paro @Shajida Khan
Excellent posts on economic impact of the stand off on the last two pages. It has been a delight to read.
@LoneWolfSandeep thank you for bringing forward the GoI effective ban on flights transiting Pak airspace and the NOTAMs issued by various countries and including various Pakistani and international sources.

To,
@Nilgiri,

Subject : Request for some juicy details with big economic words that I won't understand to show the economic impact of the stand off. Some colourful graphics would be much appreciated.

Sir,
I believe I speak for all the forum members when I say there seems to be a lack of analysis of the economic impact of the recent stand off. While there has been much analysis of weapons and technologies involved(a bit too much if you ask me) there has been no such effort put towards BDA of the economies at play. Economics, as we all agree is a important marker of national strength, sometimes the most important. It tells us a lot about a country's ability of waging war and sustaining it. Knowing the sustaining ability of the adversary is an absolute must in an attrition warfare that we find ourselves in.

Therefore, it is with utmost urgency that I request you to do your bit to enlighten your fellow countrymen on the state of matters in the economic realm and possibly advice us on what steps we ought to be taking to advance and consolidate our lead. Hoping to read a long detailed post from you soon.
Yours Sincerely
@Gautam


There @Falcon, somebody had to do it. Do you think this will work ? I mean he gave me an "F" the last time we discussed economics.
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I am working on one (the paper)....there is draft in a thread already somewhere.

I will make it as simple as possible for everyone....but I got busy lately....though actually its a good thing because Indian stock market gained a big amount recently......so a little more time in aftermath adds more solid conclusions etc.
 
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Baba informed us of quite a few LC straightening exercise.

Question - So, what about the people living in the villages and towns India recovered? Is India sanitizing that area, giving them some sort of ID cards as well as allowing them to get their daily groceries from this side of the LC? and what about their income? Any thoughts?
 
LoneWolfSandeep said:
Nothing new, Pakistan has a reputation over its history, to show the face, the world wants to see, when its in a fix.
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I know that. but why now ? FATF blacklisting ? IMF bailout ? PKR slipping ? All of these ?
IK also said BJP returning to power would be beneficial for peace talks. I mean he is starting to talk a lot like Nawaz Sharif, the same guy who he ridiculed for being "Modi ka yar".
 
vstol Jockey said:
The best way IMHO for Pakistan to come out of the mess is to get into a deal with India. Let them hand over POK+GB to us for $10b. This will help them survive, settle the 72yr old dispute and after that we can have a no-war pact with Pakistan and will also help them rebuild their industry and economy.
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Sounds very utopian to be honest. How much money did they get from the US in total ? and what did they do with it ? The RoK, Israel, Europe all got aid from the US but look at the industry they built around it. India got aid around the early 50s to mid 70s, we went from a net importer of grains/dairy to an exporter of it(green/white revolution et al).
What success does Pakistan have to speak for ?

And re-building industry would need us to break the current one. The biggest beneficiary of the current Pakistani industry is ?
 
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vstol Jockey said:
The best way IMHO for Pakistan to come out of the mess is to get into a deal with India. Let them hand over POK+GB to us for $10b. This will help them survive, settle the 72yr old dispute and after that we can have a no-war pact with Pakistan and will also help them rebuild their industry and economy.
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Dreaming!!!. Would have loved to see that, however that means Pakistan's acceptance of India being regional hegemon.. Hard to be accepted by Pakistanis having (Fake) Superiority complex..
 
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vstol Jockey said:
The best way IMHO for Pakistan to come out of the mess is to get into a deal with India. Let them hand over POK+GB to us for $10b. This will help them survive, settle the 72yr old dispute and after that we can have a no-war pact with Pakistan and will also help them rebuild their industry and economy.
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Why they will do it for only 10bn Sir! That will cut them from Chinese border and their dream of CPEC worth 60bn will be vanished.
 
vstol Jockey said:
The best way IMHO for Pakistan to come out of the mess is to get into a deal with India. Let them hand over POK+GB to us for $10b. This will help them survive, settle the 72yr old dispute and after that we can have a no-war pact with Pakistan and will also help them rebuild their industry and economy.
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Else they collapse in a few years, under the weight of debt trap, currency spiral downwards, ultra expensive power & local industry collapsing, socio economic unrest leading to eventual disintegration & we walk over & take POK+GB which is ours at no risk.
And we don't end up reviving a monster at a later date, which be of trouble, small states on west never be a threat & then we only need to worry about mammoth china of future.

No matter, however much, I like your suggestion as easy instant fix, I will still prefer second outlook, for long term India security

Indus water treaty, India financing & building the dam in Pakistan after independence, were all part of same outlook, with dispensation in power at that time, for greater friendship, till a new regime took over. Lets not repeat the mistakes of past.
 
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Shekhar Singh said:
Why they will do it for only 10bn Sir! That will cut them from Chinese border and their dream of CPEC worth 60bn will be vanished.
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60bn for them is 120bn in debt. Karjaa khakay marja is the option we are giving them. They will be able to keep 60bn with them and blame India for taking over POK+GB.
 
vstol Jockey said:
60bn for them is 120bn in debt. Karjaa khakay marja is the option we are giving them. They will be able to keep 60bn with them and blame India for taking over POK+GB.
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I don't believe, the debt goes away, if 2 countries are no longer sharing a border. but all debt does go away, if country disintegrates in small countries & they get a option to start afresh allover again, they can reunite at a later date if they feel that strongly
 
LoneWolfSandeep said:
I don't believe, the debt goes away, if 2 countries are no longer sharing a border. but all debt does go away, if country disintegrates in small countries & they get a option to start afresh allover again, they can reunite at a later date if they feel that strongly
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The CPEC becomes defunct and non functional if India takes over POK and GB. The failure will be on China and not Pakistan.
 
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