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With the surgical strike, we crossed LoC to attack terror camps which they denied. ie, no nuclear factor or need to reply using conventional forces. With Balakot, we attacked deep inside Pakistan (Unprecedented in the history of nuclear nations). Which ISPR admitted first. Thus a retaliation was warranted. How can a security state survive without the confidence of the public?. They actually failed to do the intended but got the trophy of abhinandan and the moral high ground of his release. Thus the optic was taken care of and deescalated.

Balakot changed the entire nuclear power balance of the subcontinent. It proved the nuclear umbrella has enough room to escalate without touching thresholds. It proved a terrorist strike inside india can invite direct retaliation inside Pakistan mainland. Which in turn can escalate to be consequences to not only military but also economical and diplomatically which will hurt the nation.

Few Balakot or SS are not going to deter a security state like Pakistan from using irregulars to destabilize India. It will continue to happen as long as the nation exists in its current form (ideology/military deep state). We can only increase the cost of such action to the Pakistani deep state and control it somewhat. Basically, Offensive defense.

Pakistan will attack, it has to attack, now more than ever, and worse than ever, if it is to reestablish MAD as an effective instrument of deterrence against future Indian attacks. The entirety of Pakistani strategy, in fact the entirety of Pakistan's survival, depends upon impressing India that MAD is the absolute outcome of any Indian conventional attack on its soil and/or territory under its control. This Indian attack by its very nature of defiance to Pakistan's threatened response nullifies the very core of Pakistan's strategy and thus by extension, its very survival.

No rational state can accept this threat. And thus it must attack and through the threat of unacceptable response, deter India from retaliating. Anything less fundamentally undermines Pakistani position. The paradigm Pakistan so painfully crafted and perfected over 30-40 years has been undone. It now requires to act fast before the new paradigm takes hold.

Several years ago, I had proposed the idea of a seemingly irrational player being able to undermine and subdue the strategies of rational players, simply by the threat of irrationality. I'd proposed that the very air of rationality can and will be used against interests of etities that are fundamentally rational, and thus, entirely predictable. Thus it behooved even rational entitites to appear at least notionally irrational, to break the stratagem of opponents intent on using your rationality against you. This is the first time in a long long time India is applying these principles against Pakistan, which has always relied on Indian rationality to get away with acts of terror. I wonder if someone like Doval had similar ideas decades ahead of me.
 
Not really..... NFU is a carefully worded statement..... It is a deterent..... The moment the TEL moves an inch in Pakistan.... That's the trigger....
Its debatable. Over the years India tends to show temptations of counterforce strategy.

India's adoption of potentially preemptive counterforce options—even as a choice on a menu that otherwise consists of countervalue retaliation options—would mark a seismic shift in Indian nuclear strategy and the death knell of so-called credible minimum deterrence. Furthermore, if India construes preemption as consistent with its NFU policy and therefore preemptive counter-force as a form of massive retaliation, it may decide that no overt changes to its declaratory doctrine are necessary. As India's former National Security Adviser Shivshankar Menon recently stated, “India's nuclear doctrine has far greater flexibility than it gets credit for.”6 In short, India's national security officials may have already quietly concluded that preemptive counterforce options—and associated increases in strategic force capabilities—are consistent with India's existing nuclear doctrine. Therefore, there may be no explicit acknowledgment or indicators of this shift, which may force Pakistan to adjust its nuclear posture and strategy on the fear that it has already occurred.


Eliminating Pakistan's strategic nuclear weapons would be tempting for India. Rather than current military plans that aim to punish Pakistan for future provocations while avoiding Pakistan's nuclear red lines, plans for a counter-force-capable India would be able to wage whatever conventional war it prefers by eliminating the nuclear threat altogether. India might be able to reestablish deterrence against Pakistani terrorist attacks on Indian territory in ways that aborted adjustments to its conventional doctrine have failed to do.

On the subject -> India's Counterforce Temptations: Strategic Dilemmas, Doctrine, and Capabilities
 
Not really..... NFU is a carefully worded statement..... It is a deterent..... The moment the TEL moves an inch in Pakistan.... That's the trigger....
Modi-Doval combo has effectively asked them to do whatever they can and by this they have conveyed to them that we will completely destroy Pakistan. The ball is now in their court. I do expect them to engage us in a border skirmish soon to feed bullshit to their population which has been fed the mathematics of one Pakistani equal to 100 hindus. I expect it to happen when FATF blacklisting comes out.
 
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Interestingly Imran Khan will also be in China in coming days to inform China about IMF talks and tell that he has no other option left but to disclose all Chinese deals, even defence deals including Jf17, Subs, anything that Pakistan has to pay is asked to be disclosed. Will be interesting how much will Pakistan bend and the disclosure of CPEC rip off spoil the relations between "Iron brothers".

P4 or not, IMF has successfully created issues between the two.
 
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Interestingly Imran Khan will also be in China in coming days to inform China about IMF talks and tell that he has no other option left but to disclose all Chinese deals, even defence deals including Jf17, Subs, anything that Pakistan has to pay is asked to be disclosed. Will be interesting how much will Pakistan bend and the disclosure of CPEC rip off spoil the relations between "Iron brothers".

P4 or not, IMF has successfully created issues between the two.
IMF will make every Pak Army General naked and tell people of Pakistan how they have been sold and will still not help Pakistan. China is in a bind. They have their 60B dollar investment going down the drain with zero return.
 
IMF will make every Pak Army General naked and tell people of Pakistan how they have been sold and will still not help Pakistan. China is in a bind. They have their 60B dollar investment going down the drain with zero return.
Nothing will happen. IMF will not disclose the trade deals in MSM. It will only say how much Pakistan owes in total. ISPR is smart enough to downplay the numbers and divert the attention. This is their 13th bailout, how do you think they survived their last 12.
 
Nothing will happen. IMF will not disclose the trade deals in MSM. It will only say how much Pakistan owes in total. ISPR is smart enough to downplay the numbers and divert the attention. This is their 13th bailout, how do you think they survived their last 12.
Have you heard of leaks and unsubstantiated news? wait and watch.
 
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I do expect them to engage us in a border skirmish soon to feed bullshit to their population which has been fed the mathematics of one Pakistani equal to 100 hindus. I expect it to happen when FATF blacklisting comes out.
Engage what? Feed to population what?....Their population is fed that nothing happens to them or their soldiers..... They have no clue how their soldiers are killed in LC..... Pakistan is on a fix now.....
 
IMF will make every Pak Army General naked and tell people of Pakistan how they have been sold and will still not help Pakistan. China is in a bind. They have their 60B dollar investment going down the drain with zero return.

Very unlikely that China will let their money go down like that. A backdoor deal with the Generals is more likely to happen. Something that will be equivalent of a debt for infra swap like they did with the Lankans for their misguided sea port adventure. Only packaged and perfumed enough to make the horse dung look like the chef's special
 
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Very unlikely that China will let their money go down like that. A backdoor deal with the Generals is more likely to happen. Something that will be equivalent of a debt for infra swap like they did with the Lankans for their misguided sea port adventure. Only packaged and perfumed enough to make the horse dung look like the chef's special
NO. This time it is going to happen. Even US has realised that to contain China, Pak and North Korea must die as nations.
 
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Modi-Doval combo has effectively asked them to do whatever they can and by this they have conveyed to them that we will completely destroy Pakistan. The ball is now in their court. I do expect them to engage us in a border skirmish soon to feed bullshit to their population which has been fed the mathematics of one Pakistani equal to 100 hindus. I expect it to happen when FATF blacklisting comes out.

So is it confirm that Blacklist will happen?
 
US does not Care about India getting Nuked by Pakistan

It only cares about Pakistani Nukes going in the Hands of Terrorists who will Then Use
Them in Europe and against Israel

Even if the nukes gets into the hands of the terrorists, it cannot make its way towards Israel or Europe without getting intercepted and destroyed in whichever intermediate territory it passes through. It would cause local destruction in-transit.

However, for all the - north America, Europe, Israel, Japan, Australia, ASEAN - China is a bigger worry and its stoppage in the immediate term and its destruction is the real intent of all of these nations.
 
So is it confirm that Blacklist will happen?
If Modi government comes to power 100% by June. If not, and in case pappu govt comes to power NO and in fact Pakistan will get IMF loan too. And after that loan expect Mumbai type and Uri type attacks on India too to kill our soldiers for revenge of surgical strikes and balakot. So pray that pappu gets boot from voters...
 
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If Modi government comes to power 100% by June. If not, and in case pappu govt comes to power NO and in fact Pakistan will get IMF loan too. And after that loan expect Mumbai type and Uri type attacks on India too to kill our soldiers for revenge of surgical strikes and balakot. So pray that pappu gets boot from voters...
The GoI has little say in the entire process. It's going to be decided by the US, principally & it's allies. Ditto for the IMF loan. Modi or Gandhi will continue the GoI policy of opposing rehabilitation or bailing out the Pakistanis at every fora. As far as more attacks on India, Pulwama or Uri style goes, both the precedent & escalation matrix has been set. There's no going back now, irrespective of the party running the GoI.
 
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