Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict 2020
- Thread starter Himanshu
- Start date
Nothing of this sort will happen. If we recognise the NK seceding, how do we justify what's happening in Kashmir? Don't wish for imaginary things. We aren't going to be supporting Armenia in helping NK/ Artsakh secede from Azerbaijan.
Can't compare the past with today. Even Cold Start alone has many times more firepower involved compared to the war in 1971. And in just 2 or 3 more years, it's going to be even more than that with the entry of new weapons. And so on. Not even counting the difference in logistics.
The Armenians are getting rolled over merely because they are using technology that's two generations behind the Azeris.
Due to our dependency on Middle East oil and domestic compulsions, we have a policy of non-interference in the Middle East. So we do not take sides openly there.
It's only because the GCC and Israel are patching things up due to the threat of Iran and their friends that India can vocally advertise our close relations with Israel, or else even that was behind closed doors for decades. But for all other conflicts, we only give out measured opinions.
India has a lot of reasons to publicly oppose Turkey, though, given that Turkey's policy of stirring shit everywhere they can includes India in its list of targets.
What changed? We still planning to thrust with T-72s & T-90s. We do not have any overwhelming advantage in artillery. IA slightly outnumber PA in armour & not so much in heavy artillery (perhaps that will change in coming years with new artillery induction, but it's still few years away). There is no overwhelming advantage in air either.
Enemy is well dug in and in this era of infantry with ATGMs, armour without any active protection will get cooked & stopped even more faster.
The T-72s and T-90s are fine, we have more advanced tanks than they do. Our ISR capability is far superior (quite overwhemlming). Our logistics is far, far superior (matching the Chinese in Ladakh should have proven that already).
And our airpower is absolutely overwhelming. They have already surrendered the skies over Kashmir to the IAF. After Gagan Shakti sealed their fates, their Balakot gamble was to use their one and only chance to create a perception victory by attacking IAF bases so they could ride on it for many years, and they failed at that as well. They also made their EW capabilities known to us and surrendered it for many years. Once the induction of the S-400 and BMD Phase I begin in earnest, they will have to surrender their own airspace and also will make most of their ballistic missiles obsolete. In the meantime, whatever holes we had in our own capabilities, they were plugged and significantly enhanced. In any war in the near future, they are going to have to practically fight without an air force, they have been pushed back to such an extent.
We are basically in the checkmate stage with respect to Pakistan when it comes to absolute overwhelming military power, to the point where only a Great Power can fight us today.
Turkey shoot for our armour. Infantry can't kill tanks with ATGMs in open fields, they will get killed first. Infantry is effective only in an urban environment with a lot of blindspots against tanks. And if you recall, PA only has 2nd gen ATGMs, with the T-90 having defeated those in wars already.
The problem here is first we can't openly support Armenia since we have interest in Azerbaijan. Our PSU's are working in Baku and some of our energy requirements are in Baku. Supporting armenia openly will actually harm us more than it will help us. Plus we can't do much we can't arm them with any weapons that could balance the scales for them. The Russians will arm them.
The other thing is our amazing diplomats are under this delusion that we can buy Turkish loyalty by focusing on economic relations. They don't understand turdogan is using the muslim ummah bait to influence indian internal politics and radicalising the muslim population here. And he isn't stopping even if he is sanctioned..
Armenia says it has signed deal with Azerbaijan and Russia to end conflict
A Kremlin spokesman confirmed the news, Russian agencies reported.
Angry protesters storm Armenian parliament after peace deal with Azerbaijan, Russia
Soon after the Armenian Prime Minister announced that a peace deal has been signed with Russia and Azerbaijan, angry protesters stormed Armenian parliament.
Azerbaijan was backed by multiple countries but no one came forward to help Armenia.
You forget there's a principle involved here. The so called Artsakh autonomous region ( Ngorno Karabakh) while an overwhelming Armenian majority was officially a part of Azerbaijan. No country especially one with similar issues would / could ever openly side with Armenia.
Armenia says it has signed deal with Azerbaijan and Russia to end conflict
A Kremlin spokesman confirmed the news, Russian agencies reported.www.thehindu.com
Angry protesters storm Armenian parliament after peace deal with Azerbaijan, Russia
Soon after the Armenian Prime Minister announced that a peace deal has been signed with Russia and Azerbaijan, angry protesters stormed Armenian parliament.www.google.com
Azerbaijan was backed by multiple countries but no one came forward to help Armenia.
Now the roots of this issue are quite complicated and owes its present situation to the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire, dissolution of the Russian Empire, creation of the Soviet state, defeat of Iran & incorporating some of its territories within the erstwhile Soviet Union apart from incorporating of Armenia & Azerbaijan within the same after redistribution of territories.
This issue kept festering within the SU too but lay unresolved with the result that when the SU was dissolved Artsakh continued as part of Azerbaijan within the autonomous region of Nakchivan sandwiching Armenia in between.
When Armenia launched its campaign in support of fellow Armenians to separate themselves from Azerbaijan, immediately after their independence they should have seen it thru & signed off an agreement with Azerbaijan getting them to recognize Artsakh as an independent / autonomous region. They didn't or rather they couldn't prevail over Azerbaijan given their resource crunch w.r.t the economy, their financial & consequently their military capacity & given their relatively smaller population size.
This was then an outcome to be expected.
Moreover it shows the incompetence of Russia as an ally. That too after signing NATO like agreement with them. And now after Biden taking over power in the US, they are even more nervous. Thank God our leadership knew this beforehand.Armenia says it has signed deal with Azerbaijan and Russia to end conflict
A Kremlin spokesman confirmed the news, Russian agencies reported.Angry protesters storm Armenian parliament after peace deal with Azerbaijan, Russia
Soon after the Armenian Prime Minister announced that a peace deal has been signed with Russia and Azerbaijan, angry protesters stormed Armenian parliament.
Azerbaijan was backed by multiple countries but no one came forward to help Armenia.
Russian agreement with Armenia only applies to Armenian proper. Even Armenia didn't officially annexed the NK territory, so expecting Russia to enter the war was far fetched.
THREAD!!
On Russian intervention, Armenian misadventures, Azerbaijani belligerence & Turks in the background. Surprisingly, no word on Iran.
Anyone expecting India to help Armenia or rather Armenia expecting Indian help is a delusional fool. Geopolitics aside India can barely help itself . That's the harsh reality. Excuses be damned.
Anyways I hope Armenia learnt its lessons and hopefully will play their cards well in the future , arm themselves up by aligning with countries that can actually help . Territories lost can be regained in the future, no big deal.
As for Russian role , they were pissed with Armenia trying to cosying up with NATO , in the end Armenia benefited from neither . IMO they should have known Israel has a lot of influence in NATO and most probably NATO was used to fool Armenia into spoiling relationship with Russia . Most probably this was the game plan all along. End result Russia got the opportunity to sort of punished Armenia indirectly. Everyone except Armenia went home happy.
And if I were Armenia I would best cancel bel WLR order , no point buying weapons from a country which has no capability to provide help geopolitical or otherwise.
Also this incident kind of shows India must be wary of Israel , Israel is a country who cannot be trusted for long , they have already managed to get support of many muslim countries and there is a possibility that in the future in the India por... context they might switch side if it suits their broader needs of legitimacy especially if pak drops the anti Israel approach. Many por... already advocate better relationship with Israel. As they say there are no friends among nations only interests. In the hindsight I think india supporting ( pretending to support or whatever that might be ) the Palestinian cause is a good tactic more or less for the time being. Also its best india slowly develops her own MIC and reduce the involvement of Israel.
Anyways I hope Armenia learnt its lessons and hopefully will play their cards well in the future , arm themselves up by aligning with countries that can actually help . Territories lost can be regained in the future, no big deal.
As for Russian role , they were pissed with Armenia trying to cosying up with NATO , in the end Armenia benefited from neither . IMO they should have known Israel has a lot of influence in NATO and most probably NATO was used to fool Armenia into spoiling relationship with Russia . Most probably this was the game plan all along. End result Russia got the opportunity to sort of punished Armenia indirectly. Everyone except Armenia went home happy.
And if I were Armenia I would best cancel bel WLR order , no point buying weapons from a country which has no capability to provide help geopolitical or otherwise.
Also this incident kind of shows India must be wary of Israel , Israel is a country who cannot be trusted for long , they have already managed to get support of many muslim countries and there is a possibility that in the future in the India por... context they might switch side if it suits their broader needs of legitimacy especially if pak drops the anti Israel approach. Many por... already advocate better relationship with Israel. As they say there are no friends among nations only interests. In the hindsight I think india supporting ( pretending to support or whatever that might be ) the Palestinian cause is a good tactic more or less for the time being. Also its best india slowly develops her own MIC and reduce the involvement of Israel.
I don't feel like commenting because it is a waste of time but for what's it worth I will say India has no or very little advantage vis a vis por..... in a conventional war .
War is not solely about equipment's . Equipment's solely matter when qualitative advantage is greater than 40% or so . Quantitative advantage in modern day armoured warfare is rather limited because of widespread availability of countermeasures . Eg one can field 10 ATGMs per enemy tank without breaking sweat. Additionally superior tactics has the potential to blunt both quantitative and qualitative advantage in armour.
I will advise to look at por.... defensive measures along their vulnerable areas. One will get the idea . Unless one is interested in " quantitative " increase in bodybags proportional to so called " quantitative " advantage , one can try the same.
Indian has very limited offensive capability in the vertical envelope , the one which can actually provide an advantage and break the certain stalemate in the horizontal envelope. As of now India literally doesn't have any mass deployed offensive system even at standoff range which can force the hand of enemy. Same reason why china has a upper hand vis a vis India. Ie winning the war even before it is fought .
Anyways smart people might come up with smart excuses , but nevertheless if IAF had the qualitative advantage of even 20% , paf ambush even with its natural advantage of surprise would have been bloodied successfully. At the end of the day what matters is what you put on the table , not rhetoric. IAF is still locked in WW2 mentality. IAF ( India ) is 9th pass compared to IAF ( Israel ) PhD.
As of so called EW exposure by paf , its stupid to expect pak not to factor it or equally stupid not to expect paf to remedy it , if true. And it seems people are yet to realise that similar EW exposure is equally prevalent during peacetime ops etc. So nothing out of the ordinary more or less . Systems can be tweaked more or less to change EW characteristics if it's a overriding necessity due to suspected compromise etc. It's a car and mouse game and importantly it is foolish to assume that the opponent is equally foolish
War is not solely about equipment's . Equipment's solely matter when qualitative advantage is greater than 40% or so . Quantitative advantage in modern day armoured warfare is rather limited because of widespread availability of countermeasures . Eg one can field 10 ATGMs per enemy tank without breaking sweat. Additionally superior tactics has the potential to blunt both quantitative and qualitative advantage in armour.
I will advise to look at por.... defensive measures along their vulnerable areas. One will get the idea . Unless one is interested in " quantitative " increase in bodybags proportional to so called " quantitative " advantage , one can try the same.
Indian has very limited offensive capability in the vertical envelope , the one which can actually provide an advantage and break the certain stalemate in the horizontal envelope. As of now India literally doesn't have any mass deployed offensive system even at standoff range which can force the hand of enemy. Same reason why china has a upper hand vis a vis India. Ie winning the war even before it is fought .
Anyways smart people might come up with smart excuses , but nevertheless if IAF had the qualitative advantage of even 20% , paf ambush even with its natural advantage of surprise would have been bloodied successfully. At the end of the day what matters is what you put on the table , not rhetoric. IAF is still locked in WW2 mentality. IAF ( India ) is 9th pass compared to IAF ( Israel ) PhD.
As of so called EW exposure by paf , its stupid to expect pak not to factor it or equally stupid not to expect paf to remedy it , if true. And it seems people are yet to realise that similar EW exposure is equally prevalent during peacetime ops etc. So nothing out of the ordinary more or less . Systems can be tweaked more or less to change EW characteristics if it's a overriding necessity due to suspected compromise etc. It's a car and mouse game and importantly it is foolish to assume that the opponent is equally foolish
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Trusting Israel is a terrible idea. They won’t think twice before dumping us if their interest doesn’t align with us. Indian economy will reach 10 trillion dollar sooner or later. But we can’t be considered a powerful country unless domestic MIC is developed on war footing basis. Modi highly disappointed on that front.
Those helicopters were moving in as a part of agreement, got shot down by troops during fog of war. Azarbaijan apologized for the mistake.
On the topic, agreement confirm a total Azarbaijan victory. Azarbaijan's air superiority won them the war.