This is the deepest anaysis of Brexit i have ever heard. Boy would I love to personally discuss brexit with Georgia.
Brexit and Future of UK : Discussions
- Thread starter Vergennes
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Will Dunn is joined by Duncan Weldon to discuss his recent article Britain has never faced such a decline before [1]. The two men discuss the 'unique' bad state of the British economy, the role Brexit has played in getting us there and the lack of radical response from Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer.
Weldon argues that if Brexit is a 'slow puncture' for the UK economy, the engine clearly has a problem.
When the UK was in economic decline in the 1970s, there were plenty of radical economic solutions to combat it [and there was oil and gas in the North Sea], what we call "Thatcherism" - but in today's political debate, "those big ideas just aren't there".
03:43 "productivity growth over the last 10-15 years is the lowest it has been since the Industrial Revolution".
08:10 "The example I always come back to is Italy: in the early 1990s, it was a country with a standard of living comparable to Germany and France. And after 25 years of decline, it has fallen below those countries, and has become comparable to Spain. This should be a warning to Britain.
12:30 "If the national economic model was damaged by [the financial crisis of] 2008, I fear that 2016 has finished it off."
Forecasts compiled by consultancy Consensus Economics show a 1% fall in UK GDP in 2023, compared with a fall of just 0.1% in the eurozone and weak growth in the US (0.25%). The OECD predicts that only Russia will do worse than the UK among the G20 economies.
UK productivity growth, the ultimate driver of GDP growth and living standards, has been abysmal. In the decade 1997-2007, the UK had the second highest productivity growth of all G7 economies (1.8%), behind the US. In the decade 2009-2019, it fell to second-last place (0.4%), ahead of Italy.
Economic stagnation since the crash and now the highest inflation in 40 years are expected to leave median real wages below their 2008 level until 2027. The cost of economic failure amounts to almost two decades of lost growth for workers.
In the late Victorian and Edwardian era, before the First World War, the rise of North American and German industrial production was seen as a threat to the UK's place in the global economy. The appearance of foreign-made goods in British shops was a particular source of concern for the leaders of a country that still saw itself as the 'workshop of the world'. Ernest Edwin Williams' protectionist polemic, Made in Germany, was a bestseller in 1896.
As the West German economy experienced its miracle, or Wirtschaftswunder, and France enjoyed three decades known as the Trente Glorieuses, the easier availability of comparative economic statistics led to renewed discussion of Britain's relative decline. These included Marxist historians like Perry Anderson and Eric Hobsbawm on the left and conservative historians like Correlli Barnett on the right.
But for all the national recriminations about the 1950s, 1960s or even 1970s, Britain has recorded much higher growth rates than since 2008 (3.4% in the 1960s and 2.6% in the 1970s, compared to 1.9% in the 2010s).
The economic impact of leaving the EU is like the slow puncture of a car's tyres. But the problems run deeper: even before 2016, it was clear that the engine was in serious trouble.
At the turn of the 20th century, the supposed problem of decline saw politicians competing with new visions of how to organise the economy to solve the problem. Conservatives turned to protectionism and liberals to the nascent welfare state. The 1960s and 1970s saw the alternative economic strategy of Tony Benn, and the birth of what became Thatcherism. This time, although the crisis is materially worse, the British political elite seems unusually timid. The painful decline is meekly accepted.
Three years after Brexit, five figures that show the British economy is suffering
www.lexpress.fr
As strikes mount in the UK, the executive is still defending the virtues of Brexit, despite three particularly dismal years.
To read the British Prime Minister, the third anniversary of the UK's exit from the European Union, the Brexit, is a celebration. "A huge opportunity", even. In a statement published on 31 January, the 100th day of his term of office, Rishi Sunak toasts the "growth of the British economy" to come, freed from the yoke of old Europe and its rules deemed too restrictive and unfavourable.
Yet the UK is not at all intoxicated by the new-found prosperity. This Wednesday, the British are striking and demonstrating, while the British economy is in a severe state of turmoil: recession, inflation, shortages and extra costs... Three years after the divorce with the European Union, the social movement is on a scale unprecedented for a decade, and the country's economic health is particularly gloomy.
-0.6% GDP, +10.5% inflation
The UK appears particularly sensitive to the consequences of the war in Ukraine and the setbacks of the Covid-19 pandemic. According to the latest forecasts by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the country will be the only major economy to suffer a recession this year, with a 0.6% contraction in its economy. Even Russia, which is at war and under sanctions, is expected to grow. The UK is also experiencing some of the highest inflation, reaching 10.5%.
The cost of Brexit? 113 billion euros... per year
Although the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have made the situation considerably worse, the damage is there, and was apparent as early as 2016, when the vote for Brexit was taken. According to the state budget forecasting agency OBR, leaving the EU would reduce the size of the UK economy by around 4% in the long term. Brexit costs around €124bn a year (£100bn), according to an analysis by Bloomberg Economics, a financial information agency.
Business investment, down 20% compared to other G7 countries
"The break-up of the single market may have impacted the UK economy faster than most other forecasters had thought," said Ana Andrade and Dan Hanson, the economists behind the study. As a result, the British market would have dried up, with investors preferring to wait for a stabilisation, and would have taken the full brunt of the distance from its main economic partner, the EU, without the dikes put in place having had time to take effect. As a result, investment growth is no longer in line with the G7 average and has fallen by 20%.
370,000 fewer EU workers
With the Brexit, and the return of red tape, the UK is deprived of 370,000 European workers who could have partly filled the labour shortages that are slowing down the British economy. This figure is declining, the report says. The UK is increasingly turning to non-European labour to speed up labour immigration.
Regardless of these poor results, which have had disastrous consequences for the British people, former Prime Minister Boris Johnson also made a point of celebrating the date. "Happy Brexit Day", he posted on his social networks. The main message of his video? An invitation to "put aside all the negativity" heard about the Brexit, and "remember the opportunities ahead", while 45% of Britons believe that the exit from the EU is going less well than expected, according to an Ipsos poll. This compares with just 28% in June 2021.
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
Brexit : trois ans après, les cinq chiffres qui montrent que l’économie britannique souffre
Alors que les grèves se multiplient au Royaume-Uni, l’exécutif défend toujours les vertus du Brexit, en dépit de trois années particulièrement moroses.
www.lexpress.fr
As strikes mount in the UK, the executive is still defending the virtues of Brexit, despite three particularly dismal years.
To read the British Prime Minister, the third anniversary of the UK's exit from the European Union, the Brexit, is a celebration. "A huge opportunity", even. In a statement published on 31 January, the 100th day of his term of office, Rishi Sunak toasts the "growth of the British economy" to come, freed from the yoke of old Europe and its rules deemed too restrictive and unfavourable.
Yet the UK is not at all intoxicated by the new-found prosperity. This Wednesday, the British are striking and demonstrating, while the British economy is in a severe state of turmoil: recession, inflation, shortages and extra costs... Three years after the divorce with the European Union, the social movement is on a scale unprecedented for a decade, and the country's economic health is particularly gloomy.
-0.6% GDP, +10.5% inflation
The UK appears particularly sensitive to the consequences of the war in Ukraine and the setbacks of the Covid-19 pandemic. According to the latest forecasts by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the country will be the only major economy to suffer a recession this year, with a 0.6% contraction in its economy. Even Russia, which is at war and under sanctions, is expected to grow. The UK is also experiencing some of the highest inflation, reaching 10.5%.
The cost of Brexit? 113 billion euros... per year
Although the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have made the situation considerably worse, the damage is there, and was apparent as early as 2016, when the vote for Brexit was taken. According to the state budget forecasting agency OBR, leaving the EU would reduce the size of the UK economy by around 4% in the long term. Brexit costs around €124bn a year (£100bn), according to an analysis by Bloomberg Economics, a financial information agency.
Business investment, down 20% compared to other G7 countries
"The break-up of the single market may have impacted the UK economy faster than most other forecasters had thought," said Ana Andrade and Dan Hanson, the economists behind the study. As a result, the British market would have dried up, with investors preferring to wait for a stabilisation, and would have taken the full brunt of the distance from its main economic partner, the EU, without the dikes put in place having had time to take effect. As a result, investment growth is no longer in line with the G7 average and has fallen by 20%.
370,000 fewer EU workers
With the Brexit, and the return of red tape, the UK is deprived of 370,000 European workers who could have partly filled the labour shortages that are slowing down the British economy. This figure is declining, the report says. The UK is increasingly turning to non-European labour to speed up labour immigration.
Regardless of these poor results, which have had disastrous consequences for the British people, former Prime Minister Boris Johnson also made a point of celebrating the date. "Happy Brexit Day", he posted on his social networks. The main message of his video? An invitation to "put aside all the negativity" heard about the Brexit, and "remember the opportunities ahead", while 45% of Britons believe that the exit from the EU is going less well than expected, according to an Ipsos poll. This compares with just 28% in June 2021.
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
So UK inflation is like two tenths of a percent higher than the Euro average and GDP growth is -0.1% instead of +0.1% (France) and the UK economy is in 'unique decline.' Well forgive me if I don't immediately go out and buy a lifeboat.... or I could just wait on the SE coast, one will turn up eventually. 
well then you should ask the question whether it is going up or down.So UK inflation is like two tenths of a percent higher than the Euro average and GDP growth is -0.1% instead of +0.1% (France) and the UK economy is in 'unique decline.' Well forgive me if I don't immediately go out and buy a lifeboat.... or I could just wait on the SE coast, one will turn up eventually.
There's a difference of 3.6% between the growth estimates of the IMF and the World Bank for some European countries, so I'm not going to concern myself with tenths.
human rights abuse by british, will all those western wannabes who crow about human rights abuse now condemn british action? this ruling will should be giving second thoughts to all those foreign criminals who commit crimes and hide there.
www.reuters.com
Shamima Begum, British-born woman who joined IS, loses appeal over citizenship removal
A British-born woman, who went to Syria as a schoolgirl to join Islamic State, lost her latest appeal against the removal of her British citizenship, but her lawyers vowed to keep fighting and said the case was "nowhere near over".
Uncle sam is even ripping UK , not just germany or france. Europe , from second class partners to total employees ?
www.cnbc.com
British chip giant Arm chooses New York listing in a blow to London
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Genetic Technology Act key tool for UK food security
New legislation unlocks key technologies to improve UK food security, reduce pesticide use, and enhance climate-resilience in our crops
Official government numbers don't match up to the ground reality that grocery prices are up well above 20% and let's not even start talking about utilities like electricity and heat. Governments keep a basket of items that they price track and things like real-estate and vehicles are included which really skews the mean inflation value. Food, shelter, heat and electricity are bare essentials which people are finding difficult to manage. This doesn't help buyer confidence.So UK inflation is like two tenths of a percent higher than the Euro average and GDP growth is -0.1% instead of +0.1% (France) and the UK economy is in 'unique decline.' Well forgive me if I don't immediately go out and buy a lifeboat.... or I could just wait on the SE coast, one will turn up eventually.
So, your government decided to hand out money for no reason through EBSS then? No security tags on meat in supermarkets due to higher theft?
Help with your energy bills
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This article is 2 days old btw:
UK inflation rate: How quickly are prices rising?
The rate at which prices are rising is back above the Bank of England's target of 2%.
www.bbc.com
Meh, hadn't noticed TBH. It's only year-on-year inflation from pre-war, by June it'll be back to normal. Worse in Russia anyway, despite higher interest rates - and those are the official censored figures they're actually releasing.So, your government decided to hand out money for no reason through EBSS then? No security tags on meat in supermarkets due to higher theft?
Help with your energy bills
Get help with your energy bills through the Warm Home Discount, home energy improvement schemes and the Energy Bills Discount Scheme for businesses.www.gov.uk
This article is 2 days old btw:
UK inflation rate: How quickly are prices rising?
The rate at which prices are rising is back above the Bank of England's target of 2%.www.bbc.com
View attachment 27116View attachment 27117
Indian inflation gets that high even without war.
India Inflation Rate
Inflation Rate in India increased to 6.21 percent in October from 5.49 percent in September of 2024. This page provides - India Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
tradingeconomics.com
Not noticing is purely anecdotal. It doesn't change the facts. Btw, the inflation numbers in India don't even compare according to your own link so I don't know how you figure inflation in India is higher.Meh, hadn't noticed TBH. It's only year-on-year inflation from pre-war, by June it'll be back to normal. Worse in Russia anyway, despite higher interest rates - and those are the official censored figures they're actually releasing.
Indian inflation gets that high even without war.
India Inflation Rate
Inflation Rate in India increased to 6.21 percent in October from 5.49 percent in September of 2024. This page provides - India Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
In 2014 overall inflation in India was 12% and it has averaged >6% for the last 10 years. In the UK it only briefly gone over 10% and the average is <2%.
India Inflation Rate
Inflation Rate in India increased to 6.21 percent in October from 5.49 percent in September of 2024. This page provides - India Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
tradingeconomics.com
United Kingdom Inflation Rate
Inflation Rate in the United Kingdom increased to 2.30 percent in October from 1.70 percent in September of 2024. This page provides - United Kingdom Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
tradingeconomics.com
UK's economy 4% smaller because of Brexit
Effect of leaving the EU is on the 'magnitude' of the coronavirus pandemic and rising energy prices
Brexit = Covid + Russia energy shock.
That's double the shock, which is why the UK economy is going to be the sick man of Europe.
Should probably rejoin the EU.
