Brexit and Future of UK : Discussions

Euro debt is a blackhole. The interest rates are based on an averaged risk for the whole Eurozone, but the vast majority of the money borrowed goes to the nations in the worst debt positions. It's like the housing market up to 2008, money was lent based on the triple-A rating of nations, but went to risky mortgages. Euro debt is the same. At least with the UK, lenders know who their money is being lent to.
 
The blue curves reflect the economy in nominal terms, the red curves in purchasing power parity, the solid curves are for France and the dotted ones are for the UK.


Economic-Activity.jpg

We can see that the blue curves have been stagnant on average since 2005 or so, whereas the red curves have been growing very steadily.
Indeed, the blue curves integrate the progress of the economy but also the exchange rate hazards which depend on the emotion of the financial markets.
 

Paris overtakes London as Europe's biggest stock exchange

BREXIT HAS “PERMANENTLY damaged” the UK economy, former Bank of England policymaker Michael Saunders warned as London was deposed as Europe’s biggest stock market.

The French stock market now has a combined value of 2.823 trillion US dollars, marginally above the UK stock market which is worth 2.821 trillion US dollars altogether, according to figures from Bloomberg.

In 2016, the year of the Brexit referendum, British stocks were collectively worth 1.5 trillion US dollars more than those listed in Paris.

As well as shifting consumer patterns, the market capitalisation calculations also reflect currency movements, with the pound dropping 13% in value against the US dollar this year while the euro has fallen by a milder 9.2% against the American currency.

Meanwhile, the success of the UK’s independent trade policy – one of the key reasons for leaving the European Union for many Brexit-supporters – was also questioned by Tory former Cabinet minister George Eustice, who said an agreement reached with Australia was not “a very good deal” for the UK.

The economic impact of the decision to leave the EU was blamed by Saunders for the scale of the tax rises and spending cuts that Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is set to unveil on Thursday.

Saunders, a former external member of the Monetary Policy Committee, told Bloomberg TV there had been a “chaotic period” since the 2016 referendum.

“The UK economy as a whole has been permanently damaged by Brexit,” he said.





“It has reduced the economy’s potential output significantly, eroded business investment.

“If we hadn’t had Brexit, we probably wouldn’t be talking about an austerity budget this week – the need for tax rises, spending cuts wouldn’t be there, if Brexit hadn’t reduced the economy’s potential output so much.”

In the Commons, former environment secretary George Eustice – who campaigned for Brexit – criticised key elements of the flagship trade deal with Australia, the first to be negotiated from scratch by the UK outside the EU, and a similar arrangement with New Zealand.

“The truth of the matter is that the UK gave away far too much for far too little in return,” Eustice told MPs.

“We did not actually need to give Australia nor New Zealand full liberalisation in beef and sheep. It was not in our economic interest to do so – and neither Australia nor New Zealand had anything to offer in return for such a grand concession.”

A benefit of Brexit is the ability to diverge from standards set in Brussels, with rules set in the UK instead, but the shift to the new UKCA product safety marking system has been delayed for a further two years, with goods carrying the European CE symbol continuing to be recognised until the end of 2024.

Business Secretary Grant Shapps said: “This move will give businesses the breathing space and flexibility they need at this crucial time and ensure that our future system for product safety marking is fit for purpose, providing the highest standard for consumers without harming businesses.”

Whilst the UKCA marking can be used now this extension means businesses can choose to use the CE marking until 31 December 2024.

The shift to UKCA had originally been planned for January 2022.

The government said it did not want to burden businesses given the difficult economic conditions created by post-pandemic shifts in demand and supply, the war in Ukraine and the associated high energy prices.
 
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The UK's difficulties are well known. Since the Brexit vote, the economy has been struggling. Companies, particularly international ones, are reluctant to invest in the country for the long term while its trade relations with the European Union remain uncertain. As a result, British stock market indices have stagnated in recent years: the FTSE 100 has gained 0.06% in five years, while the CAC 40 has jumped nearly 25% over the period.

The UK's sluggish economy has also weighed on its currency, a key factor when comparing the London Stock Exchange, where companies are listed in sterling, and the Paris Stock Exchange, where the euro reigns. Here too, the match is clear: the value of the British currency has plunged 16% against the euro since early 2016, the year of the Brexit vote, including a 4.6% drop this year.

 
We're not the ones dependent on Russian gas. That was the suicide move. :ROFLMAO: The video is just some Indian guy with verbal diarrhoea.

He was talking about Europe lifting sanctions so gas prices come down. 42%. Not the UK alone.

Anyway, the real cause is Brexit, not just the gas prices.

 
You have tried to demonstrate this fifty times, but you have only convinced yourself.
I've shown that the national debts of France and Italy are in excess of those of the UK.


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You can't judge a country's economic situation on a single criterion, and what's more, in your country this criterion is deteriorating much more quickly than in ours.
For exemple I have shown that France's net worth is 7.7 times its GDP despite a debt worth 1.13 GDP, while the UK's net worth is 4.8 times its GDP while its debt is only 0.96 times its GDP. I would rather have a net worth improvement of 2.9 GDP than a debt improvement of only 0.17 GDP.
Put another way, our debt is 14.67% of our net worth, whereas it is 20% of your net worth.
 
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I've shown that the national debts of France and Italy are in excess of those of the UK.
ANd where's the problem if you can find someone to buy this debt ?
The problem for UK is that less and less investors are confident with UK debt. That's not a french problem.
 
I've shown that the national debts of France and Italy are in excess of those of the UK.
And France has no problem to cover its debt :
France issued 6 billion euros worth of OATs on Thursday
01/12/2022 | 11:32

FRANKFURT (Agefi-Dow Jones)--Agency France Trésor (AFT) issued €6 billion in bonds convertible into Treasury notes (OATs) during its auction on Thursday.

AFT expected to raise €5 billion to €6 billion through this transaction.

Here are the details of the operation. The figures in brackets correspond to the results of the previous auctions, carried out respectively on November 4, 2021, May 5, 2022, March 3, 2022 and June 2, 2022.


Issue 0% Nov. 25, 2031 OAT
Bids received 6.126 bln
Bids accepted 2.844 bln
Bid-to-cover ratio 2.15 (1.78)
Average yield 2.19% (0.16%)
Average price 82.31 (98.45)
Minimum price 82.27 (98.43)
Settlement day Dec. 5, 2022

Issue 0.50% May 25, 2040 OAT
Bids received 2.222 bln
Bids accepted 1.060 bln
Bid-to-cover ratio 2.10 (2.01)
Average yield 2.55% (1.83%)
Average price 71.43 (79.66)
Minimum price 71.34 (79.63)
Settlement day Dec. 5, 2022

Issue 3.25% May 25, 2045 OAT
Bids received 1.812 bln
Bids accepted 855 mln
Bid-to-cover ratio 2.12 (1.78)
Average yield 2.56% (1.00%)
Average price 111.60 (146.45)
Minimum price 111.46 (146.38)
Settlement day Dec. 5, 2022

Issue 0.75% May 25, 2052 OAT
Bids received 2.513 bln
Bids accepted 1.241 bln
Bid-to-cover ratio 2.02 (2.07)
Average yield 2.45% (2.27%)
Average price 64.66 (67.16)
Minimum price 64.56 (67.12)
Settlement day Dec. 5, 2022


-Emese Bartha, The Wall Street Journal