Brexit and Future of UK : Discussions

[BMD]

Your interest rate is nothing to do with your assets, it is to do with the Eurozone being healthier as a whole than the likes of France and Italy in isolation. You are being subsidised by others. People lend to ECB, ECB lends to your. But the ECB is shutting that down lately. Hence your rates will rise.

See, even Italy is on the same BS rate as you, Germany too and Spain, Greece, Portugal..... EU rate, nothing to do with your asset wealth.

Italy Interest Rate

The benchmark interest rate in Italy was last recorded at 4.50 percent. This page provides - Italy Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

tradingeconomics.com

France Interest Rate

The benchmark interest rate in France was last recorded at 4.50 percent. This page provides - France Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

tradingeconomics.com

Germany Interest Rate

The benchmark interest rate in Germany was last recorded at 4.50 percent. This page provides - Germany Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

tradingeconomics.com

If I were to do such a calculation, I would be careful not to mix sources and forget expenses. But I don't want to, there are specialists for that.

Expenses are government expenditure, which was included.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

$6.4tr for France.

France Gross External Debt

External Debt in France decreased to 7157120 EUR Million in the second quarter of 2024 from 7217746 EUR Million in the first quarter of 2024. This page provides - France External Debt - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

tradingeconomics.com

External debt includes all private loans though, which is again irrelevant to government budget/debt.

€ 6.4 for France, £ 7.18 for UK.
It was you who started quoting Europe's external debt, so I wanted to compare it to that of the UK.

 

[BMD]

€ 6.4 for France, £ 7.18 for UK

This is for private debts (mortgages etc.), nothing to do with government.

See my post above on why your interest rate is low. Nothing to do with assets. EU rate. Crappy nations subsidised by sound ones.

UK debt, roughly equal to Eurozone debt - 95.X% and similar deficit 5.1% vs 6%.

Euro Area Government Debt to GDP

Euro Area recorded a Government Debt to GDP of 87.40 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2023. This page provides the latest reported value for - Euro Area Government Debt to GDP - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction...

tradingeconomics.com

United Kingdom Public Sector Net Debt to GDP

The United Kingdom recorded a Government Debt to GDP of 97.60 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2023. This page provides - United Kingdom Government Debt To GDP - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

tradingeconomics.com

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

Look again at the numbers. Ours are monthly, yours are cumulative. Apples and oranges. E.g. Sept 2022, France is 211-192 = 29bn. UK is 71bn. You should have figured this out, otherwise you'd be collecting your whole GDP in tax if that was the monthly take for France. If you add up our monthlies and subtract expenditure, our numbers balance, yours do not. #EU Blackhole

And now they are mixing different figures?

Government Revenues - Countries - List | G20

This page displays a table with actual values, consensus figures, forecasts, statistics and historical data charts for - Government Revenues.

tradingeconomics.com

This is for private debts (mortgages etc.), nothing to do with government.

But something to do with the worth of a country?

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

See my post above on why your interest rate is low. Nothing to do with assets. EU rate. Crappy nations subsidised by sound ones.

And why doesn't Italy enjoy it?

 

[BMD]

And now they are mixing different figures?

Government Revenues - Countries - List | G20

This page displays a table with actual values, consensus figures, forecasts, statistics and historical data charts for - Government Revenues.

tradingeconomics.com

As % GDP to avoid confusion 24.26% of 3186.86 billion US dollars vs 24.78% of 2937.47 billion US dollars.

France - Tax Revenue (% Of GDP) - 2024 Data 2025 Forecast 1972-2022 Historical

Tax revenue (% of GDP) in France was reported at 24.47 % in 2022, according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources. France - Tax revenue (% of GDP) - actual values, historical data, forecasts and projections were sourced from the <a...

tradingeconomics.com

United Kingdom - Tax Revenue (% Of GDP) - 2024 Data 2025 Forecast 1972-2023 Historical

Tax revenue (% of GDP) in United Kingdom was reported at 27.32 % in 2023, according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources. United Kingdom - Tax revenue (% of GDP) - actual values, historical data, forecasts and projections were...

tradingeconomics.com

But something to do with the worth of a country?

Nope, FA, and very difficult to even estimate due to hidden wealth factor and value estimates. You have same interest rate as whole Eurozone, which has same debt and deficit as UK as a whole. Your figures individually are worse. Basically, better countries like UK or Germany in the EU are the reason your rates are low, plus EU policy. Monetarily there is no reason Eurozone rates should be different to UK rates.

 

[BMD]

And why doesn't Italy enjoy it?

It does, same for Greece. EU controls your interest rate, it isn't even up to you.

The benchmark interest rate in Italy is set by the European Central Bank.​

Italy Interest Rate

The benchmark interest rate in Italy was last recorded at 4.50 percent. This page provides - Italy Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

tradingeconomics.com

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

Government borrowing is not done at this rate, it is done by issuing bonds:

Taux obligations d'état à 10 ans 2024

fr.countryeconomy.com

France : 2.84
UK : 3.96
Italy : 4.65
In the recent past, French rates were negative.

 

[BMD]

Government borrowing is not done at this rate,

Of course it is, what else would it be for?

it is done by issuing bonds:

Taux obligations d'état à 10 ans 2024

fr.countryeconomy.com

France : 2.84
UK : 3.96
Italy : 4.65
In the recent past, French rates were negative.

That's a 10 year bond yield, it's a separate entity. It's again lowered by being in the EU.

Multiply EUR2.9tr by 2.84% and you get more than EUR34.5bn, a lot more.

What Is The 10-Year Treasury Yield?

The 10-year Treasury gets more press than any other government security. Investors pay keen attention to movements in 10-year Treasury yields because they serve as a benchmark for other borrowing rates, such as mortgage rates. When the 10-year yield fluctuates, it can have significant implications a

www.forbes.com

The U.S. Treasury issues 10-year T-notes at a face value of $1,000, and a coupon specifying a certain amount of interest to be paid every six months. The notes are sold to institutional investors, like banks and other financial companies, through auctions conducted by the Federal Reserve. Institutions then resell these notes to investors in the secondary market. It’s the action in the secondary market that determines the yield.

Different market layers, government borrows at central bank rate, institutions borrow at different rate, secondary market a different rate again. Basically base rate + X + Y.

Why is Japan 0.25% for instance?

 

[BMD]

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

1. Multiply EUR2.9tr by 2.84% and you get more than EUR34.5bn, a lot more.
2. Why is Japan 0.25% for instance?

1. Yes, BUT the rate to be taken into account is the average of past rates at which France has borrowed. The current rate is a crisis rate that is much higher than this average, but which remains lower than the rate of inflation and therefore contributes to debt reduction.
2. Because with its GDP multiplier of 7.2 and its GDP larger than Germany's the country's worth is very high.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

View attachment 25005

Why median and not mean?

 

[BMD]

Why median and not mean?

Because mean is distorted by one percenters or even 0.1 percenters who are unrepresentative of general wealth.

1. Yes, BUT the rate to be taken into account is the average of past rates at which France has borrowed. The current rate is a crisis rate that is much higher than this average, but which remains lower than the rate of inflation and therefore contributes to debt reduction.
2. Because with its GDP multiplier of 7.2 and its GDP larger than Germany's the country's worth is very high.

Nope. The numbers don't gel. As I mentioned earlier, the 10 year bond rate listed is the secondary market rate. It is related to the ECB rate but not equal to, hence why central bank rates are referred to 'base rates'.

Yesterday the ECB rate was 1.2%, the delta is the measure of risk. UK base rate is 2.4%

Germany = base rate + 1.08%
UK = base rate + 1.56%
France = base rate + 1.64%
Italy = base rate + 3.45%

France : 2.84
UK : 3.96
Italy : 4.65
Germany : 2.28%

NEWSFLASH - ECB rate just went up to 2% as of today.

The crazy thing is, even with lower interest rates on borrowing, France is still in more debt and has a higher deficit than the UK. This is a sure sign of how terribly crap your financial management is.

 

[safriz]

What is going on @BMD @safriz @Superkaif?
Why do Tory MPs Want her gone especially after they selected/preffered her?
I mean it will look bad on tory party, right?
Also, when is general election?
Thanks.

GBP sank to all time low due to her policies.
That's why

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

The crazy thing is, even with lower interest rates on borrowing, France is still in more debt and has a higher deficit than the UK. This is a sure sign of how terribly crap your financial management is.

Yes, our debt is higher than the UK's, but insignificantly so, and our country despite this debt is more worthwhile than yours, so creditors trust us more and our debt service burden is much lower than yours. After all, that's the point. As for deficits in recent years, yours has been higher than ours and it's not getting any better: you'll soon catch up. After all, in our country it is not international finance that decides who should be prime minister.

 

[BMD]

Yes, our debt is higher than the UK's, but insignificantly so, and our country despite this debt is more worthwhile than yours, so creditors trust us more and our debt service burden is much lower than yours.

They're crediting the EU/Euro, not you directly. It's Germany, the Scandinavian and Eastern countries they trust with the money, not France, Italy, Greece, Spain and Portugal. That's why it's an EU rate not a French rate.

After all, that's the point. As for deficits in recent years, yours has been higher than ours and it's not getting any better: you'll soon catch up. After all, in our country it is not international finance that decides who should be prime minister.

Nor ours. How will we catch up, our deficit is lower than yours at present too, you were comparing COVID deficits.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

They're crediting the EU/Euro, not you directly. It's Germany, the Scandinavian and Eastern countries they trust with the money, not France, Italy, Greece, Spain and Portugal. That's why it's an EU rate not a French rate.

Nor ours. How will we catch up, our deficit is lower than yours at present too, you were comparing COVID deficits.

In fact according to the OECD you have already caught up with us in 2021:

​

Nope. The numbers don't gel. As I mentioned earlier, the 10 year bond rate listed is the secondary market rate. It is related to the ECB rate but not equal to, hence why central bank rates are referred to 'base rates'.

Then I'll teach you something:

https://www.capital.fr/economie-politique/la-france-va-emprunter-un-montant-record-a-un-taux-tres-eleve-en-2023-1447240

Mais les conséquences de la hausse des taux vont mettre du temps avant de se refléter complètement sur le budget: en moyenne, la dette française a une durée de vie de plus de huit ans, et elle est à 90% émise à taux fixe. La France va donc encore bénéficier des apports de la période des taux négatifs pendant un certain temps.

Translation
But the consequences of the rise in interest rates will take time to be fully reflected in the budget: on average, French debt has a life of more than eight years, and 90% of it is issued at fixed rates. France will therefore still benefit from the contributions of the negative interest rate period for some time.

 

[Volcano]

Bank of England predicted 2 year recession for UK, it's longest recession ever

 

[BMD]

In fact according to the OECD you have already caught up with us in 2021:

​

Then I'll teach you something:

https://www.capital.fr/economie-politique/la-france-va-emprunter-un-montant-record-a-un-taux-tres-eleve-en-2023-1447240

Translation
But the consequences of the rise in interest rates will take time to be fully reflected in the budget: on average, French debt has a life of more than eight years, and 90% of it is issued at fixed rates. France will therefore still benefit from the contributions of the negative interest rate period for some time.

According to the IMF we have not, and that's what counts. Stop dreaming up your own false figures. Net debt is what counts not gross debt.

United Kingdom Public Sector Net Debt to GDP

The United Kingdom recorded a Government Debt to GDP of 97.60 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2023. This page provides - United Kingdom Government Debt To GDP - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

tradingeconomics.com

France Government Debt to GDP

France recorded a Government Debt to GDP of 110.60 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2023. This page provides the latest reported value for - France Government Debt to GDP - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic...

tradingeconomics.com

Translation: Doesn't teach me anything. All that says is that money borrowed before rates went up is paid back at the rate it was borrowed at. Duh.

 

[BMD]

Bank of England predicted 2 year recession for UK, it's longest recession ever

Bet they're wrong. Bank of England is nearly always full of crap with its predictions. It's not like they predicted the 2008 crash that I predicted in 2003, so I don't why anyone would credit them with foresight.