Future Combat Air System (FCAS) - France/Germany

[randomradio]

I don't know who told you that sir but it is really too small a parameter in macroeconomics than you believe. I even quoted you successful countries with high debt and forex are not that high either, in an year or two India will have higher reserves.

You can't compare India or China with Russia. My point has always been they will become richer than Germany, which is easily achievable.

They are emerging again with 1.5-2% growth.

Knoema expects Russia to reach the number 9 position in GDP by 2030, nominal.
World in 2030 - knoema.com

PwC expects Russia to top European economies in PPP by 2030.
Russia may be an economic powerhouse, but it's no China | Andrew Ryvkin

So it's not just me saying this.

 

[BlackOpsIndia]

You can't compare India or China with Russia. My point has always been they will become richer than Germany, which is easily achievable.

They are emerging again with 1.5-2% growth.

Knoema expects Russia to reach the number 9 position in GDP by 2030, nominal.
World in 2030 - knoema.com

PwC expects Russia to top European economies in PPP by 2030.
Russia may be an economic powerhouse, but it's no China | Andrew Ryvkin

So it's not just me saying this.

They are purely going by economic factors and discounting stupidity of Putin and Trump which can anyday destroy any major economic outlook. Russia can stay well and be developed but that requires some sanity, they need to come out of USSR thinking. They can't match US so instead of dragging the country to needless wars and supporting chemical attackers they should instead stay back and let China do more.

Erdogan is stuck into ottoman empire and Putin into USSR while the world is changing and new powers are emerging.

 

[Bali78]

Economic measures cannot be taken based on short term economic problems. They are obviously in recession right now and yet to get out of it. But this is temporary. Did you forget the recession the West was in only the last decade?

The Russians aren't planning on making smartphones and such. They are moving into high end civilian technologies like aircraft, robotics etc. They have started a massive import substitution program. The food program was a success. And they are now moving into engineering.

Import substitution in Russia - Mechanical and electrical engineering and metal industries
The Russian Government has also adopted the relevant action plans for import substitution which provide for a gradual reduction in the level of foreign-made industrial products used in Russia and their replacement by domestic ones by up to 50-100% by 2020.

I doubt they will achieve success by 2020, but their agenda is to become self-sufficient first. Which means, their stuff will become available for export in time.

Over the next 20-30 years, they will become a rich economy.

And who would buy their aircrafts and why?? China is trying hard to develop it's own civilian aircraft industry. India never bought Russian aircrafts even during Soviet days. Forget about export, Russia is heavily dependent on west even for oil exploration and extraction equipments!!
Do you know how bad is the wealth distribution in Russia?? Do you know the level of corruption in that country?? Apart from oil and other natural resources and defense industry, they have nothing to boast of!! How can you compare the recession of west with that of Russia?? Recession in USA is not an exception, it's a periodic event which happens every 5-8 years and it's necessary to fix the bubbles generated during growth phase. In 1999 it was dotcom and in 2008 it was housing.
Forget about Russia, it's a spent force trying to reclaim it's old glory by showing off some impressive weapon systems. But underneath the foundation is quite shaky!!

 

[randomradio]

They are purely going by economic factors and discounting stupidity of Putin and Trump which can anyday destroy any major economic outlook. Russia can stay well and be developed but that requires some sanity, they need to come out of USSR thinking. They can't match US so instead of dragging the country to needless wars and supporting chemical attackers they should instead stay back and let China do more.

Erdogan is stuck into ottoman empire and Putin into USSR while the world is changing and new powers are emerging.

Nobody will allow the destabilization of Russia. Not even the US. If they did, then Russia will become more and more aggressive in order to distract their 'angry' population. So we will end up seeing more foreign wars. The Crimea action happened after Russia entered recession.

If they switch to a war economy, they will be absolutely unstoppable since their entire high end industry is in the defence sector. And with Russia, you never can really tell.

And who would buy their aircrafts and why?? China is trying hard to develop it's own civilian aircraft industry. India never bought Russian aircrafts even during Soviet days. Forget about export, Russia is heavily dependent on west even for oil exploration and extraction equipments!!
Do you know how bad is the wealth distribution in Russia?? Do you know the level of corruption in that country?? Apart from oil and other natural resources and defense industry, they have nothing to boast of!! How can you compare the recession of west with that of Russia?? Recession in USA is not an exception, it's a periodic event which happens every 5-8 years and it's necessary to fix the bubbles generated during growth phase. In 1999 it was dotcom and in 2008 it was housing.
Forget about Russia, it's a spent force trying to reclaim it's old glory by showing off some impressive weapon systems. But underneath the foundation is quite shaky!!

The fact is during the boom periods, they were growing above 8%. So they have a lot of room to grow. They have potential for high growth with the advantage of a well-education population compared to developing countries that have potential for high growth but don't have a well-education population.

As for their goods, they have the advantage of a weak ruble and markets in new emerging countries, especially ASEAN and Africa. If the stuff they make is good, then they will find buyers.

 

[Bon Plan]

They will be competing with Europe in high technology goods with a massive cost advantage.

Too funny.

 

[Bon Plan]

The Russian economic problems today has nothing to do with the sanctions. It's to do with oil. And as oil prices are going up, so is their economy.

NO.
If there is a direct link between oil price and nation budget (as in Saudia Arabia), there is no link between oil price and the russian economy.

Do you think suddenly up to date plants of highly demanded goods with a lot of robts will grow up once the barrel is upper 100$ ? NO.

I see a dark future for Russia. As for all the country relying since too many time nearly only on petrol & gas : Algeria, SA.

 

[randomradio]

NO.
If there is a direct link between oil price and nation budget (as in Saudia Arabia), there is no link between oil price and the russian economy.

Do you think suddenly up to date plants of highly demanded goods with a lot of robts will grow up once the barrel is upper 100$ ? NO.

I see a dark future for Russia. As for all the country relying since too many time nearly only on petrol & gas : Algeria, SA.

The recession in Russia, Venezuela etc is due to low oil prices and large populations.

Regardless, they have a massive trade surplus.

2016:
OEC - Russia (RUS) Exports, Imports, and Trade Partners
In 2016, Russia exported $282B and imported $180B, resulting in a positive trade balance of $102B.

2017:
Top Russia Exports
Russia shipped US$357.1 billion worth of goods around the globe in 2017,

They also suffered because their external debt was pretty big and they struggled paying it off when the ruble collapsed. But they have survived that.

Overall, they are going back to their pre-recession days. Basically, Russia has bottomed-out. Now the only way is up.

 

[Bon Plan]

The recession in Russia, Venezuela etc is due to low oil prices and large populations.

No my dear. And specialy in the Venezuela case....
corruption, socialism are the real explanation.

 

[randomradio]

No my dear. And specialy in the Venezuela case....
corruption, socialism are the real explanation.

That's incorrect. While their economic foundations were very weak, oil prices killed their economy.

If you don't have money, then even corruption-free societies with capitalism will fail.

 

[Indx]

This is the FCAS thread ahem ahem

 

[Bon Plan]

While their economic foundations were very weak,

It was weak even with a 100$ per barrel petrol....

 

[Bon Plan]

If you don't have money, then even corruption-free societies with capitalism will fail.

see how Japan recover after WW2.
OK, they received some money from the US, but they mainly worked by themselves (Kaizen...).

 

[randomradio]

This is the FCAS thread ahem ahem

I'd asked mods to move or delete the posts.

 

[randomradio]

It was weak even with a 100$ per barrel petrol....

But Venezuela is not Russia.

see how Japan recover after WW2.
OK, they received some money from the US, but they mainly worked by themselves (Kaizen...).

It's not the same. Venezuela is under sanctions and has no access to foreign funding.

 

[zinswinsin]

Japan's financial assistance was much larger than Europe's if IRC.

It wasn't so much a documented aid package like the Truman Plan or something but rather a string of favourable trade deals along with USA injecting billions into Japans economy over the Korean War finishing with a commitment to rebuild stuff.

 

[zinswinsin]

Woops the Truman Show movie popped into my head. I meant Marshall Plan.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

‘We are not dupes’: France takes step away from US with fighter program
By: Pierre Tran   2 hours ago

A candidate design of the Future Combat Air System is presented during a ceremony on Nov. 5, 2014, at Dassault Aviation headquarters in Saint-Cloud, in the suburbs of Paris. (Eric Piermont/AFP via Getty Images)
PARIS — France has linked its search for independence from U.S. export rules with the Franco-German project for a future fighter jet, in a bid to boost foreign sales of the aircraft, the French armed forces minister said.

France’s effort to become less dependent on U.S. components and promote exports were written into the same letter of intent signed in June with Germany for the FCAS project, Florence Parly told AJPAE, the aeronautics and space journalists association, on Sept. 6.

“The exportability of the (Future Combat Air System) is a key element to ensure the economic viability of the program,” she said. “We have to think as upstream as possible to secure this exportability.”

The minister previously told parliamentarians the French government aims to cut its reliance on U.S. components in the wake of an American refusal to authorize the sale of parts for a French Scalp cruise missile requested by Egypt. French attempts to persuade Washington to lift restrictions under U.S. International Traffic in Arms Regulations have failed.

A jet sale to Egypt is being blocked by a US regulation, and France is over it
France is seeking to reduce its reliance on U.S. approval for French arms exports as Washington withholds clearance for an American component on the on the French Scalp cruise missile.

Parly declined to give examples, but she said the problems Paris has encountered in the pursuit of foreign arms sales “stemmed in appearance from strategic factors and in reality from commercial competition."

“We are not dupes,” she said.

France needs to gradually cut its reliance on certain American components, although it is impossible to be completely independent, she admitted, adding that there is a plan to reduce that dependence.

“Experience has led us to undertake this action,” she said.

Companies should take the responsibility for greater independence, as they faced the consequences of failed export efforts, she said.

“They are in the front line,” she said, noting that the government is in dialog with industry and that some companies already understand the situation and are fully committed.

‘We are not dupes’: France takes step away from US with fighter program

 

[BMD]

That's incorrect. While their economic foundations were very weak, oil prices killed their economy.

If you don't have money, then even corruption-free societies with capitalism will fail.

If their economic foundations weren't weak, they wouldn't have had to rely on oil money, which is basically just lotto money because there happens to be oil under your country, not anything you actually worked for or earned. The fact you can be in an economic crisis when you're sitting on a 300bn bbl oil reserve is proof you are shit.

 

[randomradio]

If their economic foundations weren't weak, they wouldn't have had to rely on oil money, which is basically just lotto money because there happens to be oil under your country, not anything you actually worked for or earned. The fact you can be in an economic crisis when you're sitting on a 300bn bbl oil reserve is proof you are shit.

Who cares? Money is money. When you have some, you can buy stuff.

 

[BMD]

Who cares? Money is money. When you have some, you can buy stuff.

Yes but basing your economy on a finite mineral wealth that fluctuates hugely in price, leaves you vulnerable. It's dumb economic management.