India & Middle East : Updates and Discussions

India and Iraq agree to boost security ties during National Security Adviser Qasem's visit​

India and Iraq have strengthened their security ties during the visit of Iraq's National Security Adviser (NSA) Qasem AI-Araji to India. The visit marked the first cabinet minister-level visit from Iraq to India in seven years. Both sides have agreed to enhance defence cooperation, counter-terrorism efforts, and strengthen security linkages. On Friday, Indian NSA Ajit Doval and the Iraqi NSA held extensive discussions on vast areas of mutual interest and exchanged views on recent developments in their respective regions.

Apart from security ties, India and Iraq also have a strong economic relationship, with Iraq being the largest supplier of oil to India since 2017 and the fifth-largest trade partner of India. Indian companies have significant opportunities in the upstream, mid, and downstream sectors of the oil and gas industry in Iraq.

During his visit, the Iraqi NSA visited Bharat Electronics Limited to witness examples of the "Make in India" initiative and interacted with Indian defence industry leaders.

India organised an Artificial Limb Fitment Camp at Al Kafeel Hospital in Karbala in November-December 2018 which was very well received. Prosthetic limbs/Jaipur Foot were provided to more than 600 amputees on a charity basis.

A second camp is being planned shortly. It is estimated that around 33,000 Iraqis travel to India, mostly for medical treatment, fetching an estimated $170 million to Indian hospitals, second after Bangladesh.

There is also a historical connection between the peoples of the two countries. Many Indian pilgrims visit the holy shrines in Najaf and Karbala and that of Sheikh Abdul Qadir Jeelani in Baghdad every year. The visit of the Iraqi NSA to India paves way for increased cooperation and engagement between the two countries, not only in the area of security but also in various other sectors.
 
The Wall Street Journal


LONDON/DUBAI (Agefi-Dow Jones)--Forced to comb the globe for buyers, Russia is now doing business with partners no one would have thought of: the Persian Gulf countries.


Since Western sanctions cut Moscow off from its historical markets, national oil companies in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have decided to profit from Russian oil sold at knock-down prices, executives and analysts told the Wall Street Journal.

Despite US objections, the Gulf states use Russian oil for local consumption and refining, among other things, and sell their black gold at market prices, pocketing higher profits in the process.

They have also become - notably the United Arab Emirates - a key storage and trading hub for Russian energy products whose trade is complicated by the war in Ukraine.

Although strange at first glance, the fact that the world's most oil-rich countries are buying black gold shows that Western sanctions and the decline of US influence over the Middle East are having unintended consequences.

According to Kpler data, Russian oil exports to the United Arab Emirates more than tripled last year, reaching a record 60 million barrels. Exports to Singapore, another major trading hub, rose by only 13% to 26 million barrels, according to Kpler.

Russian oil now accounts for more than 10% of products stored in Fujairah, the Emirates' main storage hub, according to Argus Media.

Moscow is also sending 100,000 barrels a day to Saudi Arabia, according to Kpler, which is equivalent to more than 36 million barrels a year, whereas the country hardly sent any before the war.

US authorities are paying attention

The exchanges between the Saudis, Emiratis and Russians have caught the attention of US officials, who say they undermine Western efforts to cut off the Kremlin.

Treasury Undersecretary Brian Nelson travelled to the Middle East in February to try to convince countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey to implement sanctions against Russia.

Neither the US Treasury nor the Saudi royal family responded to requests for comment.

An Emirati official said the country was complying with the UN sanctions and had adopted "robust procedures for dealing with sanctioned entities". "The UAE will continue to engage openly and honestly with its international partners," he said.

Analysts say there is no indication that the Gulf countries are keen to give up Russian oil.
 
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How India's Massive Plans In Middle-East Counter China's Influence​

Washington:
To counter China's footprint in Gulf, India is planning an ambitious connectivity project that aims to link New Delhi to the Middle East, reported Foreign Policy.

National Security Adviser Ajit Doval held a meeting with his US and UAE counterparts, which was also attended by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The leaders discussed a joint infrastructure project that would connect the Middle Eastern countries via rail.

The ambitious connectivity project aims to link the Middle East to India through roads, rails, and seaports. The idea emerged during meetings of the I2U2 group - which also includes Israel - over the last year, Axios reported.


The I2U2 group - a relatively new vehicle for US-India cooperation in the Middle East - was not envisioned as a China-focused entity, given the close commercial cooperation that both the UAE and Israel enjoy with China, reported Foreign Policy.

Saudi Arabia hasn't formalized relations with Israel, which means the latter isn't a formal part of the project, but its membership in I2U2 suggests it will have a role.

The connectivity project shows just how much India benefits from the Abraham Accords, the Trump-era agreement that normalized relations between Israel and several of its Arab neighbours.

The deal allowed for the establishment of the I2U2 group, and discussions there gave rise to the new initiative, reported Foreign Policy.

The proposed initiative signals that India and the United States are ready to take their joint efforts to counter China beyond the Indo-Pacific region and into the Middle East.

It's clear the Biden administration views the connectivity project as a way to balance Chinese power in the region. "Nobody said it out loud, but it was about China from day one," a former senior Israeli official told Axios.

The connectivity project aims to leverage India's capacity as an infrastructure provider. Its track record includes the construction of the world's largest rail system and contributions to cross-border electricity-sharing arrangements. Through the new initiative, Indian officials hope to develop a deeper infrastructure footprint in the Middle East to counter China's BRI.

According to one assessment, in a best-case scenario, India could eventually benefit from land and sea trade routes stretching from Israel and the UAE all the way to Greece's Piraeus port and onward into Europe.

India wants to participate in a new multilateral effort to push back against China's growing Middle East footprint - driven by Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) investments and by a recent strategic agreement with Iran.

Notably, Beijing also recently mediated a reconciliation deal between Tehran and Riyadh, reported Foreign Policy.

The Middle East is an increasingly significant space for India, given its trade interests there and the several million Indians who work in the region and send remittances back home.

Moreover, recently Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen visited New Delhi. Although he departed early because of a crisis with Gaza, he likely planned to meet with Indian interlocutors about the connectivity project.

In a statement released before the visit, Cohen said India can play a key role in strengthening regional stability in the Middle East, reported Foreign Policy.

India now has opportunities to scale up influence, trade, and diplomacy beyond the Indo-Pacific region - all in a year while holding the G-20 presidency, enjoying rapid economic growth, and overtaking China as the world's most populous country.
 
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Doval in Saudi to discuss US rail link plan for West Asia​

National Security Advisor Ajit Doval Sunday met his counterparts from the US, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to discuss an ambitious proposal being pushed by the White House to link West Asian countries through rail — using Indian expertise — and connect the region to South Asia via sea lanes.

Sources in New Delhi said Doval has travelled to Saudi Arabia for Sunday’s meeting. The participants are expected to discuss the broad contours of the massive joint project to build railway, maritime and road connectivity in the larger region, linking the Indian subcontinent in South Asia with West Asia — which the US calls the Middle East.

The development was first reported by US news website Axios. It said this is among the key initiatives the White House wants to push in the Middle East as China’s influence in the region grows. The Middle East is a key part of China’s Belt and Road vision.

Axios reported: “The US, Saudi, Emirati and Indian national security advisers are expected on Sunday to discuss a possible major joint infrastructure project to connect Gulf and Arab countries via a network of railways that would also be connected to India via shipping lanes from ports in the region.”

Sources in Delhi explained that the Indian side is keen to participate in the project as it fulfils three strategic objectives.
First, Beijing has expanded its sphere of political influence in the West Asian region through what Delhi views as “mission creep” — the breakthrough in ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran had caught India unawares. This has potential implications for India’s interests in West Asia, which provides energy security. Such connectivity will allow for faster movement of the crude and minimise India’s costs in the long term. The connectivity boost will also help India’s eight million citizens who live and work in the Gulf region.

Second, the project will help India build a brand as an infrastructure builder in the railways sector. Boasting a strong rail network at home and buoyed by the success of creating such infrastructure in Sri Lanka, India has the confidence to do it overseas. It wants private companies as well as public sector enterprises to explore the potential economic and infrastructure opportunities in the region. This will also have the effect of countering the Chinese Belt and Road project, which has burdened many countries in the region with infrastructure that has limited utility. The US, which had proposed the Blue Dot network, is one of the elements in the creation of the connectivity project that will be financially sustainable and viable.
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Third, the government feels that India’s connectivity to its western neighbours has been limited for long by Pakistan’s blocking of overland transit routes. So, Delhi wants to use shipping routes to reach West Asian ports. These include Chabahar and Bandar-e-Abbas (Iran), Duqm (Oman), Dubai (UAE), Jeddah (Saudi Arabia) and Kuwait City. Connectivity projects crisscrossing the Gulf and Arab countries, with Indian stakes, open up trading opportunities.

According to the Axios report, the idea for the new initiative came up during talks held over the last 18 months in a forum called I2U2, which includes the US, Israel, the UAE and India. The forum was established in late 2021 to discuss strategic infrastructure projects in West Asia.
With China in mind, Israel raised the idea of connecting the region through railways during the I2U2 meetings over the last year. Part of the idea was to use India’s expertise on such big infrastructure projects, a former Israeli official was quoted as saying by Axios.
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The Biden administration in recent months expanded on the idea to include Saudi Arabia’s participation. The initiative would include connecting Arab countries in the Levant and the Gulf via a network of railways that will also connect to India through seaports in the Gulf, sources told the US news outlet.

S NSA Jake Sullivan hinted at this initiative during his speech Thursday at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “If you remember nothing else from my speech, remember I2U2, because you will be hearing more about it as we go forward,” he said.
Sullivan said the basic plan is to connect South Asia, the Middle East and the US “in ways that advance our economic technology and diplomacy”.
He said a number of projects are already underway, along with “some new exciting steps that we are looking forward to undertaking in the months ahead”.

The US NSA said in his speech that one of the pillars of the Biden administration’s strategy in the Middle East is regional integration.
“A more integrated, interconnected Middle East empowers our allies and partners, advances regional peace and prosperity, and reduces the resource demands on the US in this region over the long term without sacrificing our fundamental interests or our involvement in the region,” he said.

According to the Axios report, Israel is not part of this initiative at the moment, but could be added to it in the future if efforts to normalise relations in the region make progress.