India-Nepal Relations

[screambowl]

We are free to chose who we will buy Energy from. Why should we not pursue our influence or capacity to Influence Neighborhood ? China does it. Why Should we not?

Because your relation with Nepal is unlike China's. You are culturally and religiously and traditionally same. If you really want to act smart take people of Nepal along with you and make them aware about such deals with China. Don't let the Mao government there brainwash the innocent people in the name of development.

 

[screambowl]

The Arun III project has a capacity of 900 MWs and there are few other projects going on as well. By the time all these projects are commissioned, Nepal will be a power surplus country and with a huge debt burden.

Chinese will bring more investment in Industrial complexes in Nepal. This is why they are building 1200MW powerplant. It's a same pattern of CPEC.
Create powerplants, install industrial parks to consume the energy and generate revenue and control the economy.

 

[Paro]

It's a same pattern of CPEC.
Create powerplants, install industrial parks to consume the energy and generate revenue and control the economy.

LOL you should read about the powercuts in Pakistan. Forget industrial parks their existing power plants are shutting down.

 

[screambowl]

LOL you should read about the powercuts in Pakistan. Forget industrial parks their existing power plants are shutting down.

Nepal is not Pakistan.

 

[Paro]

Nepal is not Pakistan.

Sri Lanka was also not Pakistan. Its become one after dealing with China. So is the case with Nigeria And Venezuela. What makes you think Nepal is any different?

 

[Bali78]

Sri Lanka was also not Pakistan. Its become one after dealing with China. So is the case with Nigeria And Venezuela. What makes you think Nepal is any different?

Because China is going to establish a factory in Nepal to convert Alu. ---> Au . Only a privileged few are aware of this top secret information!!

 

[Paro]

Let's wait another decade. All we have to do is Wheather out the storm. In a decade Chinese economy will start to show chinks in its armor. Every country that got burnt in hands of the Chinese will come back into our sphere of influence. There can be only Apex Predator at any given time, our chance is the next one.

 

[Bali78]

Let's wait another decade. All we have to do is Wheather out the storm. In a decade Chinese economy will start to show chinks in its armor. Every country that got burnt in hands of the Chinese will come back into our sphere of influence. There can be only Apex Predator at any given time, our chance is the next one.

If China does not go into 2-3 % growth mode within next 5 years, then expect a Great Depression. China's current growth rate is fueled by debt and is not sustainable. Either they reduce their growth rate and opt for a soft landing or maintain current growth rate till the whole system crashes!!

 

[screambowl]

Sri Lanka was also not Pakistan. Its become one after dealing with China. So is the case with Nigeria And Venezuela. What makes you think Nepal is any different?

Nepal has no sea routes, China wants only it's presence in Nepal in disguise. More the chinese infrastructure more the Pakistani presence. And more the anti India sentiments and more the smuggling into India of arms and narcotics. They don't want to do serious business in Nepal or Sri Lanka or even Pakistan. They are securing their routes.

It was never about business it was just about having their presence to cultivate assets and surround India. If They are even spending some 200 billion dollars and getting back 110 billion as revenue from those investments , China can afford 90 billion loss in return of assets they will cultivate in these countries in the long term ( 10-20 years) to contain India and keep US at bay in IOR

 

[randomradio]

https://twitter.com/x/status/982124945558749184

They need to sell power to India because they need to pay back the loan in dollars to China.

 

[randomradio]

If China does not go into 2-3 % growth mode within next 5 years, then expect a Great Depression. China's current growth rate is fueled by debt and is not sustainable. Either they reduce their growth rate and opt for a soft landing or maintain current growth rate till the whole system crashes!!

What we do not know is how long they can sustain their debt fueled growth before they can initiate a soft landing.

I think they have set themselves a 2020 deadline because they announced all the way last decade that they will double their per capita in 10 years, by 2020.

 

[randomradio]

Nepal has no sea routes, China wants only it's presence in Nepal in disguise. More the chinese infrastructure more the Pakistani presence. And more the anti India sentiments and more the smuggling into India of arms and narcotics. They don't want to do serious business in Nepal or Sri Lanka or even Pakistan. They are securing their routes.

It was never about business it was just about having their presence to cultivate assets and surround India. If They are even spending some 200 billion dollars and getting back 110 billion as revenue from those investments , China can afford 90 billion loss in return of assets they will cultivate in these countries in the long term ( 10-20 years) to contain India and keep US at bay in IOR

India can shut down Nepal overnight. China can't do anything about it.

If China escalates, we can do the same with respect to Mongolia and Vietnam.

 

[Bali78]

What we do not know is how long they can sustain their debt fueled growth before they can initiate a soft landing.

I think they have set themselves a 2020 deadline because they announced all the way last decade that they will double their per capita in 10 years, by 2020.

Basically China is riding a tiger. Let's see how long they can manage. When there is no transparency, it is difficult to predict the outcome. During USSR days, the real economic condition was far worse than the most pessimistic estimation of western world. I hope it's not that bad with China. If China goes down, whole world including India will go into recession.

 

[randomradio]

Basically China is riding a tiger. Let's see how long they can manage. When there is no transparency, it is difficult to predict the outcome. During USSR days, the real economic condition was far worse than the most pessimistic estimation of western world. I hope it's not that bad with China. If China goes down, whole world including India will go into recession.

True. We need to get out sh!t sorted out and start clocking high growth or we won't be able to weather the storm. I hope there's enough time for that.

 

[Bali78]

True. We need to get out sh!t sorted out and start clocking high growth or we won't be able to weather the storm. I hope there's enough time for that.

We can't do much about it. Let me explain in a simple manner.

1. Chinese economy goes down ---> China's oil, coal, iron ore and other raw material import goes down ---> Whole middle east, Australia, Brazil and South Africa economy go down -----> India's export to middle east and remittance from these country goes down and lakhs of jobless people are back in India

2. Chinese economy goes down ---> Sell of automobiles, mobiles, electronics and construction goes down ----> US/European companies revenue and profit is badly hit and massive layoffs ----> US/Europe goes into recession ----> India's services sector as well as export is badly hit

These are just couple of very very simplistic scenario. Reality is every country is so much entangled with other countries that nobody is/can be isolated from the domino effect of any major economy going into recession.

When oil price goes down, India's tax collection is badly hit and that affects the fiscal deficit of Indian government and restricts governments capacity to jump start the economy during recession.

Over the years Indian government has been heavily dependent on taxes from petrol/diesel and it's high time they reduce this dependency.

 

[Paro]

True. We need to get out sh!t sorted out and start clocking high growth or we won't be able to weather the storm. I hope there's enough time for that.

We can't do much about it. Let me explain in a simple manner.

1. Chinese economy goes down ---> China's oil, coal, iron ore and other raw material import goes down ---> Whole middle east, Australia, Brazil and South Africa economy go down -----> India's export to middle east and remittance from these country goes down and lakhs of jobless people are back in India

2. Chinese economy goes down ---> Sell of automobiles, mobiles, electronics and construction goes down ----> US/European companies revenue and profit is badly hit and massive layoffs ----> US/Europe goes into recession ----> India's services sector as well as export is badly hit

These are just couple of very very simplistic scenario. Reality is every country is so much entangled with other countries that nobody is/can be isolated from the domino effect of any major economy going into recession.

When oil price goes down, India's tax collection is badly hit and that affects the fiscal deficit of Indian government and restricts governments capacity to jump start the economy during recession.

Over the years Indian government has been heavily dependent on taxes from petrol/diesel and it's high time they reduce this dependency.

What’s the rough timeline you can estimate?

 

[Bali78]

What’s the rough timeline you can estimate?

When Xi decides to pull the string or things just go out of his control.

I am no economist, but had China been a democracy, it would have gone into recession 3 years back.

Let me put some numbers to justify my opinion. Apparently 70% of China's growth is fueled by real estate and infrastructure construction. After 30 years of non stop construction, they have created ghost cities where nobody lives, have built enough cubicle spaces for every Chinese who can work and 10s of thousands of kms of high speed railroad which have no chance of reaching their optimum utilization even in 30 yrs time.

So the question is if they have built so much which can't be utilized/consumed any time soon, then how long they are going to build and when they stop what will happen?? Their exports are stagnant/went down since last three years.

Their working age population is decreasing, export is not going up, real estate/infrastructure has already touched the ceiling. So how do to sustain growth? Just take debt and keep pumping money to the economy? How long that can go on?

Every economy needs some correction after years of growth to defuse the bubble. The biggest mistake of China was not to opt for that correction and they went overboard with growth during 2010-15 and now the bubble is so big that the world does not have the capacity the bear the impact when the bubble is burst.

 

[Paro]

I read lot of reports that if by 2017 they don’t take drastic steps the bubble will burst soon. But to everyone’s surprise instead of corrective steps they took the opposite decision to make Xi the dictator. So now I’m confused.

 

[randomradio]

We can't do much about it. Let me explain in a simple manner.

1. Chinese economy goes down ---> China's oil, coal, iron ore and other raw material import goes down ---> Whole middle east, Australia, Brazil and South Africa economy go down -----> India's export to middle east and remittance from these country goes down and lakhs of jobless people are back in India

2. Chinese economy goes down ---> Sell of automobiles, mobiles, electronics and construction goes down ----> US/European companies revenue and profit is badly hit and massive layoffs ----> US/Europe goes into recession ----> India's services sector as well as export is badly hit

These are just couple of very very simplistic scenario. Reality is every country is so much entangled with other countries that nobody is/can be isolated from the domino effect of any major economy going into recession.

When oil price goes down, India's tax collection is badly hit and that affects the fiscal deficit of Indian government and restricts governments capacity to jump start the economy during recession.

Over the years Indian government has been heavily dependent on taxes from petrol/diesel and it's high time they reduce this dependency.

Personally, I don't think the effect will be as bad as you stated.

China will go down, but it won't be as sudden as you stated. I personally think it will be a 10-year process which started ever since a few years ago. So, in the meantime, a lot of poor countries will start becoming bigger, like South Asia, Southeast Asia and Africa. This will compensate for the lower growth in China.

Also, even if China's growth is reduced to 2-3%, there is still sufficient growth to ensure plenty of sale of raw materials. US and Europe will sell to new countries that are not markets today.

The Middle East are developing their economies in other areas also, so they will have a need for high end Indians which will only increase remittances. Oil sales are expected to peak only 2 decades later. That's plenty for us.

I agree with our dependency on oil price manipulation. And then, there's our water scarcity problem, which is bigger.

 

[randomradio]

What’s the rough timeline you can estimate?

I think it will be gradual. I expect growth to fall by 0.5% every year until it stabilizes at 2 or 3% by 2025.

Of course, it depends on how much they are lying also. Their growth may already be at 4% for all you know.