Indian Ballistic Missile Defence Programme - Updates and Discussions

[randomradio]

But what does it have to do with camo trucks though. All these camouflaged trucks are DRDO-owned and are not indicative of any Military participation in of themselves. The use of camo trucks is common to all programs, whether sanctioned or unsanctioned, whether they are maiden test launches or end-user trials.

Time will answer that, at least by next year.

No, on the contrary the target missile is all-liquid. It's basically the same as your regular Prithvi.

The 'second stage' of Prithvi is basically just the tumbling RV with no propulsion of its own, hence is largely irrelevant to our conversation as the missile is solely dependent on the boost stage itself for imparting all the necessary velocity.

This is the target missile, note the "TGT" near nozzle:

I have not seen any information that would indicate the Prithvi-based TGTs were solid-fueled, please correct me if I'm missing something here.



So does an ASAT treaty.



Again, I have no idea how a liquid-fueled 250-km SRBM can simulate a solid-fueled 2,000-km MRBM. The weight, thrust, Isp, velocities are worlds apart.

DRDO’s AAD Ballistic Missile Defence Interceptor Heads Toward Induction With Latest Test | Delhi Defence Review

delhidefencereview.com

The single-stage target missile (see image below) used in this test is based on a Prithvi booster and is capable of mimicking the re-entry characteristics of a medium range ballistic missile (MRBM). In order to successfully simulate the angle of attack and re-entry velocity usually associated with a MRBM, this target missile has an apogee greater than that of a standard member of the Prithvi missile family. Incidentally, the target missile also boasts a ring-laser gyroscope (RLG) based INS.

https://www.spslandforces.com/experts-speak/?id=194&h=Big-Stride-in-Ballistic-Missile-Defence

...the interceptor is based on the nuclear-capable Prithvi missile and the target developed for mimicking a hostile Ballistic Missile approaching from more than 2,000 km away was launched from a ship anchored in the Bay of Bengal.

The "exo-atmospheric" (outside the earth's atmosphere) interceptor missile tested, also called the PDV (Prithvi defence vehicle), directly hit the target missile at an altitude of 97km.

"Both, the PDV interceptor and the two stage target missile, were successfully engaged."

The target missile comes in different configurations. As far as I have understood, there are at least two known systems, one is single stage for endo-atmospheric tests and the other is a two-stage missile for exo. Both links have very reliable sources.

There is apparently an international ASAT Treaty being mooted as an extension of the Outer Space Treaty, although I'm not sure if the Russians and Chinese will be willing to sign one 'cause it currently only benefits the US.

 

[Rajput Lion]

Our AAD and PDV combo is good enough for anything Pakistani and Phase II would safeguard us from Chinese threats.

Having said that no BMD system is 100% fool-proof. That's why Indian government has done the right thing by making the first Phase operational rather than ever waiting for the "next best tech" to arrive. It's an organic curve.

 

[Parthu]

DRDO’s AAD Ballistic Missile Defence Interceptor Heads Toward Induction With Latest Test | Delhi Defence Review

delhidefencereview.com

The single-stage target missile (see image below) used in this test is based on a Prithvi booster and is capable of mimicking the re-entry characteristics of a medium range ballistic missile (MRBM). In order to successfully simulate the angle of attack and re-entry velocity usually associated with a MRBM, this target missile has an apogee greater than that of a standard member of the Prithvi missile family. Incidentally, the target missile also boasts a ring-laser gyroscope (RLG) based INS.

https://www.spslandforces.com/experts-speak/?id=194&h=Big-Stride-in-Ballistic-Missile-Defence

...the interceptor is based on the nuclear-capable Prithvi missile and the target developed for mimicking a hostile Ballistic Missile approaching from more than 2,000 km away was launched from a ship anchored in the Bay of Bengal.

The "exo-atmospheric" (outside the earth's atmosphere) interceptor missile tested, also called the PDV (Prithvi defence vehicle), directly hit the target missile at an altitude of 97km.

"Both, the PDV interceptor and the two stage target missile, were successfully engaged."

The target missile comes in different configurations. As far as I have understood, there are at least two known systems, one is single stage for endo-atmospheric tests and the other is a two-stage missile for exo. Both links have very reliable sources.

So one is an all-liquid type (i.e. regular Prithvi-like) and the other is one where at least the ascent stage is Prithvi-derived i.e. also liquid. We don't know whether the 2nd stage was solid or liquid but let's assume solid.

The question is how can the liquid stage impart enough velocity for the solid 2nd to take over from, cuz that's what the Pakistani BMs would be doing - they don't have a liquid 1st stage.

I'm aware that DRDO claims it can simulate this & that, I just don't understand how those claims make any sense beyond PR.

 

[randomradio]

So one is an all-liquid type (i.e. regular Prithvi-like) and the other is one where at least the ascent stage is Prithvi-derived i.e. also liquid. We don't know whether the 2nd stage was solid or liquid but let's assume solid.

The question is how can the liquid stage impart enough velocity for the solid 2nd to take over from, cuz that's what the Pakistani BMs would be doing - they don't have a liquid 1st stage.

I'm aware that DRDO claims it can simulate this & that, I just don't understand how those claims make any sense beyond PR.

Prithvi I and II are liquid. Prithvi III is solid + liquid. TGT is all solid.

It's easy to simulate MRBMs and IRBMs using SRBMs because of payload. The Prithvi has been designed for a 500-1000Kg payload, but the target missile probably carries a 100Kg payload. A Prithvi III with a 200Kg nuke does 800Km, which could have an apogee of 100Km. The Agni II has an apogee of 200+Km. So all you have to do is take a Prithvi III and work your way from there by modifying the second stage, ie all solid, different motor, different test warheads etc. The TGT is only based on the Prithvi III, no different from how the ASAT is based on an Agni.

For P1, they launched the TGT from 70Km away, but with different trajectories, they managed to simulate missiles fired from 2000-2500Km. Also, when they speak of range, they are actually referring to speed. And to get speed, you need apogee. If your apogee is equal to MRBM apogee, then you are simulating an MRBM. You can even add thrusters to the warhead to increase speed before it hits the atmosphere. So if your apogee is 150Km, then thrusters can add to the speed to mimic a 300+ Km apogee.

 

[safriz]

Our AAD and PDV combo is good enough for anything Pakistani and Phase II would safeguard us from Chinese threats.

Having said that no BMD system is 100% fool-proof. That's why Indian government has done the right thing by making the first Phase operational rather than ever waiting for the "next best tech" to arrive. It's an organic curve.

Not really good for "anything Pakistan has".
May be good for slower Ghauri or Short range missiles, such as Ghaznavi.
But newer warheads are faster, for example Shaheen 3 has re entry speed of 22000 KPH, or Mach 18.
That's a bit too fast even for S-400, because S-400 can only track targets up to mach 14.

 

[randomradio]

Not really good for "anything Pakistan has".
May be good for slower Ghauri or Short range missiles, such as Ghaznavi.
But newer warheads are faster, for example Shaheen 3 has re entry speed of 22000 KPH, or Mach 18.
That's a bit too fast even for S-400, because S-400 can only track targets up to mach 14.

Question is if it's operational.

Shaheen 3 could fall into the entry-level IRBM category too. But I don't think that even when it's operational, it will change the calculus for P1 'cause a 100% capability is unlikely. So a few Shaheen 3s getting through will be par for the course.

In any case, PDV has been tested since 2009, so it will have seen further improvements.

There's nothing saying the ASAT cannot perform BMD either, it's basically a PDV with a bigger booster.

The S-400 was limited by a treaty. Our S-400s can use our BMD radars for surveillance, and it's not expensive to induct a handful of more modern FCRs capable of defeating more robust threats, including hypersonic CMs and glide bombs. As for the treaty, knowing the Russians, you can bet it's just a software restriction, no different from Brahmos's range magically increasing overnight by 100Km after we entered the MTCR.

 

[safriz]

Question is if it's operational.

Shaheen 3 could fall into the entry-level IRBM category too. But I don't think that even when it's operational, it will change the calculus for P1 'cause a 100% capability is unlikely. So a few Shaheen 3s getting through will be par for the course.

In any case, PDV has been tested since 2009, so it will have seen further improvements.

There's nothing saying the ASAT cannot perform BMD either, it's basically a PDV with a bigger booster.

The S-400 was limited by a treaty. Our S-400s can use our BMD radars for surveillance, and it's not expensive to induct a handful of more modern FCRs capable of defeating more robust threats, including hypersonic CMs and glide bombs. As for the treaty, knowing the Russians, you can bet it's just a software restriction, no different from Brahmos's range magically increasing overnight by 100Km after we entered the MTCR.

I am unaware of any treaties. Was talking on pure technical perimeters.
S-300 radar has been with India for a while now and has been used in developing Indian BMD.
It's not just about the radar.
There are two other requirements.
Target tracking and actual physical hit.
For example S-400 has the big bird radar which can "detect" target from hundreds of Km away, but acquisition and real time tracking is done by tombstone radar which can only do so for a radius of 60 km or so.
That too if speed is below mach 14.

About Shaheen 3 deployment. They were actually deployed, locked and loaded during February 2019 nerender modi Election campaign, also known as Balakot strikes.
Not sure about numbers. But Shaheen 2 has 27 launches available at any given time.
Even that missile has round about the same or above the speed of S-400 target tracking limits.

 

[Rajput Lion]

Not really good for "anything Pakistan has".
May be good for slower Ghauri or Short range missiles, such as Ghaznavi.
But newer warheads are faster, for example Shaheen 3 has re entry speed of 22000 KPH, or Mach 18.
That's a bit too fast even for S-400, because S-400 can only track targets up to mach 14.

PDV MK2 intercepted a satellite at nearly 10km/s closing velocity. Just little tweaking can make it intercept any ICBM. So your Shaheen could also be intercepted.

Anyways, our Phase 2 is specifically designed to counter this particular kind of threat.

 

[safriz]

PDV MK2 intercepted a satellite at nearly 10km/s closing velocity. Just little tweaking can make it intercept any ICBM. So your Shaheen could also be intercepted.

Anyways, our Phase 2 is specifically designed to counter this particular kind of threat.

There's a difference between interception of a satellite and a missile.
Guess what's the difference?

 

[Rajput Lion]

There's a difference between interception of a satellite and a missile.
Guess what's the difference?

Yes. Intercepting a missile is much more difficult than a satellite. But you missed two key words in my post: "can" & "tweaking".

Anyways, here is a nice article on this topic: India’s A-SAT Test And What It Tell About The Country’s Capability To Shoot Down Ballistic Missiles

 

[randomradio]

I am unaware of any treaties. Was talking on pure technical perimeters.
S-300 radar has been with India for a while now and has been used in developing Indian BMD.
It's not just about the radar.
There are two other requirements.
Target tracking and actual physical hit.
For example S-400 has the big bird radar which can "detect" target from hundreds of Km away, but acquisition and real time tracking is done by tombstone radar which can only do so for a radius of 60 km or so.
That too if speed is below mach 14.

About Shaheen 3 deployment. They were actually deployed, locked and loaded during February 2019 nerender modi Election campaign, also known as Balakot strikes.
Not sure about numbers. But Shaheen 2 has 27 launches available at any given time.
Even that missile has round about the same or above the speed of S-400 target tracking limits.

The S-400 was developed to the limits of the ABM Treaty, which restricted interception to below 5Km/s, ie speed below mach 15. So it can be improved to go beyond that. It's only a paper restriction, not a technical restriction.

In any case, the S-400 has been deployed close to the borders, so it's not meant to stop something like the Shaheen 3 anyway. The main threats are sub-1000Km.

You should be worried about Feb 2024 then...

 

[safriz]

The S-400 was developed to the limits of the ABM Treaty, which restricted interception to below 5Km/s, ie speed below mach 15. So it can be improved to go beyond that. It's only a paper restriction, not a technical restriction.

In any case, the S-400 has been deployed close to the borders, so it's not meant to stop something like the Shaheen 3 anyway. The main threats are sub-1000Km.

You should be worried about Feb 2024 then...

I guess it is a technical limit as detection , tracking , computation and communication are never in real time, and there's a lapse.
So , from the initial detection and tracking by big bird, then passing on the job to tombstone for locking on and generating parameters viable for firing a missile for targeting the incoming threat. Then the missile going after the target and using own radar, and getting midcourse update.
All this takes some micro seconds.
If the target speed is too high, the parameters generated for firing an S-400 missile will go outdated too soon. If you know what I mean?


For those reasons countries like Pakistan don't bother spending money on ABM. Because its too expensive and counteracts by enemy as way cheaper. Just increase the missile speed by a few mach numbers, and or add some maneuverability.

 

[safriz]

Yes. Intercepting a missile is much more difficult than a satellite. But you missed two key words in my post: "can" & "tweaking".

Anyways, here is a nice article on this topic: India’s A-SAT Test And What It Tell About The Country’s Capability To Shoot Down Ballistic Missiles

ASAT is relatively easier because any satellite is always in a fixed orbit, which is known and won't change .

Ballistic missile can be fired from anywhere and in a variety of trajectory.
There's the difference

 

[safriz]

The S-400 was developed to the limits of the ABM Treaty, which restricted interception to below 5Km/s, ie speed below mach 15. So it can be improved to go beyond that. It's only a paper restriction, not a technical restriction.

In any case, the S-400 has been deployed close to the borders, so it's not meant to stop something like the Shaheen 3 anyway. The main threats are sub-1000Km.

You should be worried about Feb 2024 then...

However I get what you are saying here.
Same as Brahmos which had 600km range from day one and even carried fuel fir that range, but had 300 km range due to software limiting it to that range, because of legalities.

For S-400 such limitations are not in the detection and tracking/ looking on , ranges.
But modules and missile types being provided.

For example is the 400km range 40N6E being sold to india?

Is the ground attack capability module and software is being sold to india?

Since S-400 is a highly modular system, capabilities can be added by integration of new appropriate modules.

That's where legalities play their role.
Detection and tracking range is the same.

 

[Chain Smoker]

I have a question @randomradio can a terminal interceptors intercept missile in its mid course phase if it is travelling in highly depressed trajectory.(150-200km)

 

[Parthu]

Prithvi I and II are liquid. Prithvi III is solid + liquid. TGT is all solid.

Is there any documentation for this?

Cuz the pic of TGT boosting has the missile giving off reddish-orange smoke which is very indicative of N2O4 and/or UDMH being present. No solid fuel being burnt here:

The clear lack of a smoke trial (result of alumina particles in solid fuel) is also indicative of liquid fuel on the ship-launched TGT as well:

 

[randomradio]

However I get what you are saying here.
Same as Brahmos which had 600km range from day one and even carried fuel fir that range, but had 300 km range due to software limiting it to that range, because of legalities.

For S-400 such limitations are not in the detection and tracking/ looking on , ranges.
But modules and missile types being provided.

For example is the 400km range 40N6E being sold to india?

Is the ground attack capability module and software is being sold to india?

Since S-400 is a highly modular system, capabilities can be added by integration of new appropriate modules.

That's where legalities play their role.
Detection and tracking range is the same.

It's impossible to say how much the S-400 has shifted away from the ABM Treaty ever since its end. We also can't say how much of it, if any, was introduced in Indian systems.

40N6 is available to India. The S-400's 5Km/s limitation was imposed on the 48N6 and the other missiles, not the 40N6, which is a post treaty development. The ABM Treaty ended in 2002 and the 40N6 was developed in response to that starting in 2003. So we can assume for obvious reasons that the goal was to surpass the 5Km/s limit.

The Indian S-400 apparently uses the Indian BMD radars for detection and tracking at the regiment level instead of Big Bird. Battery level surveillance and fire control is provided by Russian systems, Cheeseboard and Gravestone resply.

 

[randomradio]

I have a question @randomradio can a terminal interceptors intercept missile in its mid course phase if it is travelling in highly depressed trajectory.(150-200km)

The interceptor needs a lot more altitude, like the ASAT or SM-3.

 

[randomradio]

Is there any documentation for this?

Cuz the pic of TGT boosting has the missile giving off reddish-orange smoke which is very indicative of N2O4 and/or UDMH being present. No solid fuel being burnt here:

The clear lack of a smoke trial (result of alumina particles in solid fuel) is also indicative of liquid fuel on the ship-launched TGT as well:

I don't think the image of the two stage target missile was ever released.

This one's PDV.

The image you posted is Prithvi II.

The Pralay model could be derived from the target missile in fact.

Once PDV was developed, it appears they have decided to convert the target missile into an operational one. That's my guess. They would have put a lot of work into the target missile considering the kind of trajectories required of it.

 

[Parthu]

I don't think the image of the two stage target missile was ever released.

So we have no picture, no document, and no quote from a DRDO scientist or even a respected journalist...but we somehow know that TGT was all-solid?

The image you posted is Prithvi II.

The image is the TGT...it clearly has Programme-AD written on side of it and TGT-09 written near the nozzle.

And the video shows the ship-launched TGT taking off from a Sukanya-class OPV.