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I am no good at economics but this sounds like such a bad idea. We had a trade deal with Japan that caused a large trade deficit, ditto for South Korea and ASEAN. We also have a large trade deficit with the Chinese. Now we have this. The RCEP in all due probability increase the trade deficit even more.
Why even get a FTA with them ? Somebody please explain this to me. What do we get in return ? and how sure are we that the Chinese, of all people, will keep their commitments ?

In basic terms, by signing RCEP, we become a part of largest trading bloc in the world and a part of south-east and east asian growth story.
If we can get our shit together, then we should be able leverage this region's cheap production to sell to rest of the world and as well as within this huge market itself. We will be irreversibly,at least for 20-30 years, be integrating our supply chains, logistics etc with this region.
Both signing this agreement and not signing it will have huge repercussions for India.
So better to negotiate the best deal we can get, except India, these countries already have FTAs/PTAs with each other, only India is the prize for clinching this deal.
 
In basic terms, by signing RCEP, we become a part of largest trading bloc in the world and a part of south-east and east asian growth story.
If we can get our shit together, then we should be able leverage this region's cheap production to sell to rest of the world and as well as within this huge market itself. We will be irreversibly,at least for 20-30 years, be integrating our supply chains, logistics etc with this region.
Both signing this agreement and not signing it will have huge repercussions for India.
So better to negotiate the best deal we can get, except India, these countries already have FTAs/PTAs with each other, only India is the prize for clinching this deal.
I do get the basics. But the point I was making is that we have done trade deals before and it has always favoured the others more than us. What will change this time ? Sure we can sell to them and the entire world in theory, but in reality can we ?
You are right, India is the prize. But what concessions are they making to accommodate us ? Free labour movement is unlikely to happen. It seems to me that we are making more concessions to them then they are to us.
 
An excellent read :

‘Fall in area under rice, sugar will not hurt us’

By Vishwanath Kulkarni | Updated on September 20, 2019
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Ramesh Chand, Member, NITI Aayog - THE HINDU

Citing resistance to biotechnology, NITI Aayog’s Ramesh Chand favours a productivity breakthrough in oilseeds, pulses

There appears to be no let-up in the agrarian crisis prevailing in the country, despite the government taking various measures. Agri growth has witnessed a decline in recent quarters and could pose a challenge to the government in doubling farmers’ income by 2022. BusinessLine caught up with NITI Aayog Member Ramesh Chand to get his views on the prevailing crisis. Excerpts:

Do you think the decline in agriculture growth will hamper the doubling of farmers’ income ?

Decline of agri GDP in one or two quarters will not alter the overall trend. Indian agriculture consists of many segments and I am hopeful that in some segments we will still be able to achieve the target of doubling farmers’ incomes. Like in fisheries, for instance, which is already growing at a higher rate. The gross value added (GVA) in fisheries is growing at more than 7 per cent while the GVA in livestock is growing at 6.5 per cent.

Within the crop sector, of concern is field crops, where the growth rate is quite low. Horticulture segment within the crop sector is doing well, and in some of the other segments, growth is on track. But in the case of field crops, the growth rate is not as projected in the NITI Aayog model that envisages a doubling of farmers’ income. Still we have three years, we need to do something. We need to take some set of measures.

The Prime Minister has constituted a high-powered committee of chief ministers which is discussing how farmers’ income can be increased, how to promote exports, how to give a big push to agri-processing and invite private investments, etc. So we are tracking the situation and seeing in what areas we need to take action.

But are fresh investments happening in the agri sector ?

Yes. But the concern is private investments should be coming to the production side of agriculture. Private investments are coming into the post-harvest sector. Private investment should come right from the seed to the harvesting stage. After detailed analysis we found that unless we bring in reforms in agriculture, unless we allow contract farming, and unless we bring about changes in the Essential Commodities Act and the APMC Act, it will be difficult to bring in private capital into agriculture. The Centre has notified the model APMC Act and the Contract Farming Act. We are working with States. The High Powered Committee of CMs had TORs on how to take States on board to undertake these reforms.

How many States have started adopting these laws ?

The Model APMC Act has nine different provisions. The provisions are being adopted by States on a piecemeal basis and in a partial and diluted form. That’s why we are not seeing results. States should implement the Act comprehensively. Maybe, one or two provisions may not fit the situation of a particular State. But they should do it. By implementing one or two provisions for formality’s sake, you cannot claim that you have brought in reforms.

How are the BJP-ruled States implementing these reforms ?

Gradually, the States are coming on board. Maharashtra, Gujarat and Haryana are far ahead in terms of implementing the reform measures. Uttar Pradesh is picking up. It has introduced the model land lease law, and amended the Revenue Act to create scope for land leasing. One by one the BJP-ruled States are coming on board. Punjab, which passed the model APMC Act two years back, is yet to notify it. Maharashtra has the Contract Farming Act, but farmers have not come in lakhs to adopt it. One reason is there are not many sponsors for contract farming. They are waiting for a more facilitating environment. Things are changing, but a bit slowly.

You said field crops are the weak links, but production is still going up ?

Production is growing, but the growth rates are still slow. In the case of cereals, we are already surplus. We have to sell 10 million tonnes of rice in the overseas market. But as far as the oilseeds and pulses sectors are concerned we are still depending on imports to meet our requirement. The growth can be much higher here. In these two commodities groups, the main problem is we are not having a tech breakthrough. And there is resistance in the country to go for bio-tech crops, whereas the world has gone ahead in a big way for GM technology. We seriously need to think of some breakthrough for oilseeds and pulses.

So with GM crops facing stiff resistance, what are the options available to boost yields of oilseeds ?

One option is crop area substitution. India will not suffer if the area under rice or sugar declines. We are finding it very difficult to dispose our sugar in the international market. The second option is that since these crops — pulses and oilseeds — are largely grown in rainfed conditions, it will make a big difference to their productivity if we are able to expand irrigation to those crops.

But do you see the need for a policy to discourage water-intensive crops such as sugarcane and rice ?

There is such a thinking. There is a task force in the NITI Aayog, which I am heading, which is looking into this issue. We have prepared a report to figure out what is the optimal area that should be under sugarcane. In the last few years, both yields and profitability have increased. The increase in FRP (fair and remunerative price) has also been quite high. So sugarcane profitability has been increasing. So if there is domestic demand it is okay.

But we are not having adequate domestic demand and the international prices are very low. Also, the crop is a big water consumer. So, because of these issues, substitution needs to be considered. Earlier, Maharashtra was the largest producer of sugarcane. Now, UP is the largest, accounting for 60 per cent of the sugarcane produced in the country. The government is also trying to promote ethanol from B and C grade molasses. I think we should also be looking at technologies that allow direct conversion of sugarcane juice to ethanol. We can allow some percentage of sugarcane to be converted into ethanol. We are having a consultation with the industry and farmers on this report soon. The main idea is to bring in a balance between the demand and supply of sugar.

How do you see the crisis in the plantation sector ?

From the macro statistics that I have seen, rubber is facing a serious crisis, while other crops are not having such serious problems. Since 25 per cent of all plantation crops are exported, what happens globally is very important. Look at coffee and what’s happening in Brazil and Vietnam. The output has gone higher and higher with improved productivity. We are stuck and our production is stagnant. I feel that over time, either of three or four things should happen.

There should be either a technological breakthrough or an organisational innovation — like in the dairy sector. The organisational innovation was a co-operative model, which has helped achieve scale and reduce costs. Or there should be some brand loyalty creation where people don’t mind paying premium on their products. I feel that they need to spend much more money on demand creation, like the Café Coffee Day did, which has helped create demand. After all, with the export market is getting more and more difficult, it will become more a niche kind of thing. Coffee producers should look at how we ways to promote coffee consumption within the country.

Plantation crop growers face disadvantage both in terms of high labour costs and lower yields. The germplasm varieties in the plantation crops are too old. In the case of apple, a change has started happening. If this change had not happened, our apple industry would have been wiped out. Now, the apple growers are going in for high density plantations. The kind of apple that is grown in many areas of Himachal Pradesh now is totally different. You don’t see those old big trees. This could be possible because we allowed import of root stock and plant-propagation material after due process of testing. I think we need to look at that for the entire plantation sector. We must upgrade entire plantations.

But research in plantation crops is largely controlled by the public sector...

I will say that research has been a tragedy in the case of commodities. Research was not taken up by the mainstream public sector system. That responsibility was given to commodity boards. At one point in time, the commodity boards had three or four scientists to carry out the research. Agriculture research has become both capital and knowledge intensive. I think it is time to have a relook at who will be doing R&D for plantations. The agriculture universities of the States where these crops are grown should take the lead in the research activities.

You think the proposed RCEP will have any impact on Indian producers ?

It will depend on how we negotiate it. You can’t simply say by looking at things on the surface. The modern FTAs nowadays give special and differential treatment for many commodities. They keep many commodities in the exempt category. It will depend on how we negotiate. We are keeping commodities we are not very competitive in compared to ASEAN countries and others in the exempt list. If we get special and differential treatment for those commodities, then it will not matter. Otherwise, in a modern world, if you feel safe that you are not part of an FTA it is not true.

Then there is trade deflection. Assuming that Sri Lanka is part of RCEP and we are trading with Sri Lanka, a lot of commodities will start coming from Sri Lanka. I have observed this in the case of palm oil. Bangladesh was allowing imports at much lower duty than India. So palm oil started coming to India from Bangladesh. So this is the problem. You can’t say that you are fully insulated and protected if we don’t become part of any FTA. So it is better that you become part of that to get whatever benefit you can get, and then try to protect your sensitive commodities through the exempt list and by having provision for high tariff.

There’s a sense of concern among planters on the RCEP agreement...

We should not always look at very high tariff walls. Then other countries can also apply that logic to us. Trade is a two-way route. It can’t be that you would want to sell your product and not buy their products.

‘Fall in area under rice, sugar will not hurt us’
 
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I do get the basics. But the point I was making is that we have done trade deals before and it has always favoured the others more than us. What will change this time ? Sure we can sell to them and the entire world in theory, but in reality can we ?
You are right, India is the prize. But what concessions are they making to accommodate us ? Free labour movement is unlikely to happen. It seems to me that we are making more concessions to them then they are to us.
Not really, they are offering a deal based on equality while we are insisting on an equitable deal since their industries are more competitive than ours.
We have stifled our industrial growth for the past 70 years by passing stupid labour laws according to which a company can not fire anyone if they have above 100 employees thereby encouraging them to remain small scale.Or our amazing land acquisition policies where even one farmer owning 10m2 land can delay a multi billion dollar project indefinitely.This list is too long, I can go on and on.
And no, current govt. is doing no better.Look at Ayushman Bharat Scheme where they are punishing private hospitals that are doing well by forcing them to treat poor people on low rates and rewarding private hospitals who are in loss by subsidizing them.All in the name of buying votes.

It is not these countries responsibility to fix our mess, they are saying "We will go ahead with or without you in an equal deal. Make up your mind quickly, unlike you we dont believe in reincarnation so we want to get rich in this life itself :p "
And no sane govt. would agree to free movement of labour.How would you feel if there was sudden influx of foreign workers in India taking away jobs from locals??
 
Not really, they are offering a deal based on equality while we are insisting on an equitable deal since their industries are more competitive than ours.
We have stifled our industrial growth for the past 70 years by passing stupid labour laws according to which a company can not fire anyone if they have above 100 employees thereby encouraging them to remain small scale.Or our amazing land acquisition policies where even one farmer owning 10m2 land can delay a multi billion dollar project indefinitely.This list is too long, I can go on and on.
And no, current govt. is doing no better.Look at Ayushman Bharat Scheme where they are punishing private hospitals that are doing well by forcing them to treat poor people on low rates and rewarding private hospitals who are in loss by subsidizing them.All in the name of buying votes.

It is not these countries responsibility to fix our mess, they are saying "We will go ahead with or without you in an equal deal. Make up your mind quickly, unlike you we dont believe in reincarnation so we want to get rich in this life itself :p "
And no sane govt. would agree to free movement of labour.How would you feel if there was sudden influx of foreign workers in India taking away jobs from locals??

India isn't asking for free movement of labour anyway.

But yeah, this govt needs to do more on land reforms.
 
It is not these countries responsibility to fix our mess, they are saying "We will go ahead with or without you in an equal deal. Make up your mind quickly, unlike you we dont believe in reincarnation so we want to get rich in this life itself :p "
Fair enough. But with out us it won't be the largest trading block. And like you said they all have FTAs with each other already, so with out us the RCEP bring nothing much to the table.

There are other areas where we are competitive but they won't allow market access. China, for example, doesn't allow us to export medicines, stent and other pharma products. Japan has a laundry list of phytosanitary requirements that often act as non-tarrif barriers, the requirement often keep changing. I can go on but the point is equal trade is fine bending over backwards is not. We have plenty of faults ourselves, no doubt. But over the years these nations have never shown much interest in providing us access in competitive areas to reduce trade deficits, its unlikely they will do so now. So no it doesn't look like a good idea to me.

I'd have preferred pulling out to be honest.
 
Fair enough. But with out us it won't be the largest trading block. And like you said they all have FTAs with each other already, so with out us the RCEP bring nothing much to the table.

There are other areas where we are competitive but they won't allow market access. China, for example, doesn't allow us to export medicines, stent and other pharma products. Japan has a laundry list of phytosanitary requirements that often act as non-tarrif barriers, the requirement often keep changing. I can go on but the point is equal trade is fine bending over backwards is not. We have plenty of faults ourselves, no doubt. But over the years these nations have never shown much interest in providing us access in competitive areas to reduce trade deficits, its unlikely they will do so now. So no it doesn't look like a good idea to me.

I'd have preferred pulling out to be honest.

The govt's gameplan is to sign RCEP with assurances that the other countries will open up their service sector in the future in a systematic fashion and thee India will also slowly open up the economy for more foreign goods, as a quid pro quo.
 
Saudi Arabia looking at $100-billion investment in Indian petrochemicals, infrastructure and mining

Saudi Ambassador Dr Saud bin Mohammed Al Sati said that the Arab nation is eyeing long-term partnerships with New Delhi in key sectors such as oil, gas and mining.

By Express Web Desk | New Delhi | Published: September 29, 2019 3:35:42 pm
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Saudi Arabia is a key pillar of India’s energy security, being a source of 17 per cent or more of crude oil and 32 per cent of LPG requirements of India. (PIB Photo via PTI)

At a time when India is facing a slump in the economy, Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, is likely to invest $100 billion in areas of petrochemicals, infrastructure and mining among others, considering the country’s growth potential.

In an interview to news agency PTI, Saudi Ambassador Dr Saud bin Mohammed Al Sati said that the Arab nation is eyeing long-term partnerships with New Delhi in key sectors such as oil, gas and mining. “Saudi Arabia is looking at making investments in India potentially worth $100 billion in the areas of energy, refining, petrochemicals, infrastructure, agriculture, minerals and mining,” Al Sati said.

This comes on the heels of a partnership between the country’s biggest oil giant Aramco and Reliance Industries Ltd, which reflects the strategic nature of the growing energy ties between the two countries. “Saudi Aramco’s proposed investments in India’s energy sector such as the $44 billion West Coast refinery and petrochemical project in Maharashtra and long term partnership with Reliance represent strategic milestones in our bilateral relationship,” the ambassador said.

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This comes on the heels of a partnership between the country’s biggest oil giant Aramco and Reliance Industries Ltd.

Saudi Arabia is a key pillar of India’s energy security, being a source of 17 per cent or more of crude oil and 32 per cent of LPG requirements of India.

Meanwhile, the envoy also said that the vision 2030 of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will also result in a significant expansion of trade and business between the two nations. The envoy highlighted that more than 40 opportunities for joint collaboration and investments across various sectors have been identified in 2019, adding the current bilateral trade of USD 34 billion will undoubtedly continue to increase.

“There is huge untapped potential available in merchandise trade, particularly in non-oil trade and we are enhancing cooperation in economic, commercial, investment, cultural and technological fields,” Al Sati noted.

Talking about ‘Vision 2030’, Al Sati said Saudi Arabia is working towards transforming its economy and looking at a post-oil age of world-class technological research, start-up and entrepreneurial vigour. The country is in the process of shifting its dependency on oil and diversify the Saudi economy.

“The entire development strategy of the kingdom rests on three pillars – to build a vibrant society, a thriving economy and an ambitious nation,” he said. “The World Bank too has ranked the kingdom as the fourth largest reformer within G20. The number of foreign investment licenses granted in Saudi Arabia in the first quarter of 2018 increased by 130 per cent,” he said.

Saudi Arabia looking at $100-billion investment in Indian petrochemicals, infrastructure and mining
 
The govt's gameplan is to sign RCEP with assurances that the other countries will open up their service sector in the future in a systematic fashion and thee India will also slowly open up the economy for more foreign goods, as a quid pro quo.
So we are opening up 80% immediately and in exchange we are getting "assurances" that too from the Chinese of future opening of service sector. This is quid quo pro ? Noice.(y)
 
So we are opening up 80% immediately and in exchange we are getting "assurances" that too from the Chinese of future opening of service sector. This is quid quo pro ? Noice.(y)

With Japan, ASEAN and other developed countries we will be opening up 85-90% or so. It's not a problem for us there. We already have an FTA with ASEAN, while the other countries are developed and of no threat to manufacturing at the low end.

But with China it's going to be 70-80% and then quid pro quo. And other countries will also fall in line with opening up their economies over a period of many years, even decades. Even this 70-80% is opened up over 5 years to 20 years.

As per the plan, India would immediately eliminate customs duties on 28% of goods, while tariffs on other imports from China would be reduced or eliminated over a period of 5,10, 15 and 20 years.

You can see that by this time we will also transition from a lower middle income economy to a developed country, perhaps even an advanced economy.

The thing is we are also not willing to open up our service sector, so others are complaining about that as well.
 
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You can see that by this time we will also transition from a lower middle income economy to a developed country, perhaps even an advanced economy.
*coughs* Ah......aspirations and all that *coughs again*

The thing is we are also not willing to open up our service sector, so others are complaining about that as well.
Elaborate on this please. What kind of service are they looking at ? The Brits wanted law practice because they have a lot of good lawyers and they are fluent in English obviously. Can't say the same for ASEAN or Japan or SK or Aus or NZ, I'll let Chine slide.
 
*coughs* Ah......aspirations and all that *coughs again*

We are headed there anyway.

Elaborate on this please. What kind of service are they looking at ? The Brits wanted law practice because they have a lot of good lawyers and they are fluent in English obviously. Can't say the same for ASEAN or Japan or SK or Aus or NZ, I'll let Chine slide.

Other countries want us to open up our financial sector, like insurance.
 
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