In all the years of my existence, I've drunk only in the afternoons & nights.Sometimes late nights.Never in the evenings. I've just realised what I've been missing out on now.
Indian Economy : News,Discussions & Updates
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This is called shifting the goalposts ever so subtly @Gautam
Apart from unbridled optimism there's a lot you can learn from him. On how to frame arguments and shift ground while appearing to hold it.
What's weird in what I said. It's nothing out of the ordinary that we are a lower middle income economy today and 10-20 years down the line we will have transitioned to a developed economy.
Are you saying quality of life has deteriorated from when you were young to now? Are you saying your income when you were young is more than it is today? If you didn't notice per capita income has been rising for decades, and will continue to do so.
I'm glad you brought up our per capita income.
What is it that pulls the all-India performance down? - Open The Magazine
If we transition from a per capita income of USD 2000 odd to USD 14000 in a couple of decades, it'd be a miracle. Why USD 14000 and not more or less?
Since 1991, Budget size grew 19 times, economy 9 times; your income 5 times
Compare this to what it was in 1991 when we liberalised our economy and compare this to the economic progress other nations have made in the same period.And this discussion is about the nation's progress. Not mine. F. Y. I.
Wrong way to look at things. Our exchange rate based per capita income is purely based on supply and demand of the dollar within India. It's impossible for our currency to be strong when our forex reserves are low and we have a large trade deficit.
According to the UN, HDI is determined by per capita income based on PPP. And to be a developed economy, we need a per capita income of $20,000.
India is at more than $8000 and China is at more than $18000. China is very, very close to transitioning into a developed country while India is about 15 years away (at today's prices).
Purely on per capita income, this is a much more reasonable method. Note that the figures are in PPP, not exchange rate.
India is at level 2 and slowly transitioning to level 3. You can say that India will be at level 3 by 2025. Only 2% of our population is now at level 1.
China is already at the end of level 3 and on the cusp of level 4.
Purely on exchange rate basis, if India becomes a trade surplus nation with $300B or $400B surplus, and the forex starts growing by $200B a year, then why not, $14000 is extremely easy to reach if everybody is swimming in dollars because the rupee will simply strengthen by 40-50% in just a few years of reaching such amazing trade and forex figures. Logically speaking, had the UPA not mismanaged the economy, then our GDP at the old exchange rate even with muted growth would have been $4T today, which means per capita income would have been $3000 and not $2000. Are you saying we are poorer today in 2019 than we were back in 2012? You see how exchange rate based GDP is meaningless.
So, in effect what you're saying is that within 2 decades we'd be a USD 20k per capita in PPP terms economy which would translate into us being a developed country?Wrong way to look at things. Our exchange rate based per capita income is purely based on supply and demand of the dollar within India. It's impossible for our currency to be strong when our forex reserves are low and we have a large trade deficit.
According to the UN, HDI is determined by per capita income based on PPP. And to be a developed economy, we need a per capita income of $20,000.
India is at more than $8000 and China is at more than $18000. China is very, very close to transitioning into a developed country while India is about 15 years away (at today's prices).
Purely on per capita income, this is a much more reasonable method. Note that the figures are in PPP, not exchange rate.
India is at level 2 and slowly transitioning to level 3. You can say that India will be at level 3 by 2025. Only 2% of our population is now at level 1.
China is already at the end of level 3 and on the cusp of level 4.
Purely on exchange rate basis, if India becomes a trade surplus nation with $300B or $400B surplus, and the forex starts growing by $200B a year, then why not, $14000 is extremely easy to reach if everybody is swimming in dollars because the rupee will simply strengthen by 40-50% in just a few years of reaching such amazing trade and forex figures. Logically speaking, had the UPA not mismanaged the economy, then our GDP at the old exchange rate even with muted growth would have been $4T today, which means per capita income would have been $3000 and not $2000. Are you saying we are poorer today in 2019 than we were back in 2012? You see how exchange rate based GDP is meaningless.
There are around 70 countries in the world whose per capita income is more than $18500. According to definition of randomradio they must be all developed countries!!
It depends. We need to improve our socio-economic conditions too, and this primarily requires self-realisation of the individual. For example, those who are able to need to focus on education so that they can improve their lives on their own, especially those who are farmers. Otherwise we will have a large per capita but with too much inequality.
That's why I said HDI. The minute you breach past 0.8 in HDI, you can consider your country to be a developed country. With 0.8, the per capita income is $20,000 and children's school education is complete and health services are good enough to allow a life expectancy of well over 70 years, which requires improving the health and nutrition of children. This is considered Very High HDI.
India's HDI improved by 0.016 between 2016 and 2017, from 0.624 to 0.64. That's a very significant rise. Obviously it's impossible to maintain such a pace for a decade when transitioning from Medium HDI to Very High HDI, but India's HDI could be anywhere between 0.75 and 0.8 by 2030. So even if we are unable to breach Very High HDI by 2030, we will at least be High HDI. At 0.75, China is a High HDI nation.
In India's case, the new education and health reforms are paving the way forward towards High HDI already. This includes providing electricity and sanitation to all, followed by the new program to deliver tapped water to all households. And also the program to build free housing for all. India's HDI figures will rapidly rise once these programs start delivering. A lot of these programs are yet to be considered in the UN's HDI survey.
There are 19 countries between 0.8 and 0.85, and those include countries like Eastern Europe, Portugal and Malaysia. So between 2030 and 2035, India can easily be similar to these countries. And above 0.9 is where most of the advanced economies are, which can happen between 2035 and 2050.
Sure.
But you have to consider only large enough countries with tens of millions of people. Small countries can easily get a very high per capita with just infrastructure projects, which is mainly financed by larger countries and banks. For example, Mongolia's GDP is just $13B, and India recently contributed a billion dollar refinery which Mongolia couldn't build by itself. So you will have to consider all aspects of HDI and only 58 countries have Very High HDI today.
According to UN, countries with HDI above 0.8 are considered developed. According to IMF, countries above $22,000 in PPP are developed. According to the World Bank, it's $12,000 in exchange rate terms. Everybody has their own standards. The UN's standards are well-rounded since per capita income of $20,000 is only one of the parameters when calculating HDI.
And by focusing on other parameters of HDI, a country can raise its status even without having to breach $20,000. For example, Kerala could easily breach the UN's Very High HDI mark on its own over the next few years.
As mentioned in the previous post, India is 10-15 years away from breaching the 0.8 Very High HDI mark.
Well with that logic some of the developed countries are Thailand, Malaysia, Mexico, Argentina, Iran, Turkmenistan etc. BTW, have you ever been to Mexico?? If you call Mexico as a developed country, then it can easily pass of as joke of the day if not for the week. I have been to 3 of the above 6 countries and at best they can be considered as middle income countries. They have to go a long way before they can be considered developed in any sense !!
In addition to WB, IMF & UN standards, we have a new metric to measure HDI & declare an economy advanced or not & that is, you've said it - @randomradio standards.
Hence, if randomradio declares Mexico to be an advanced country, you think you know better than him? Answer me. Who's the optimist here?
It's fine. Those countries are in the middle income trap or under sanctions or are simply going through significantly rough times due to bad economic decisions and they are suffering for it. India is less likely to see the same problems. But these countries all have excellent socio-economic indicators.
You make fun of Mexico, but they have a literacy rate of 95%, life expectancy of 77 years and infant mortality rate of just 11.5 per 1000 births. Those are mind numbing figures for India. With a regular 6% growth and these figures, we will be well over the 0.8 threshold. Even then Mexico is yet to breach the 0.8 threshold.
The average Indian can only dream of such a life.
The problem for most of these countries is they have a very low growth rate in comparison to their size, all due to the middle income trap. Like Mexico's growth has been 2% for more than a decade and their growth the previous quarter was 0%, very little can be done with such low growth. So their infrastructure is going to suck and they will have unemployment problems. Most definitely fear the middle income trap. One can imagine what Mexico would have been with an average 5% growth.
Everything makes sense in context. No point taking things out of context.
Didn't do anything that you claim, the $20,000 figure is part of UN's HDI indicators.
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I didn't make fun of Mexico. I made fun of your statement that "Mexico is developed country".
Really ?? Dude, it's high time you get rid of that stuff you have been smoking.
They have the quality of life necessary for it.
Why? What's wrong with what I said?
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“Indian #banks are the most vulnerable because they have lower capital ratios, and their capital will be wiped out under our stress scenario,” says Moody’s analysing banks in 13 Asia Pacific economies
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In Asia-Pacific economies, Indian banks are at most risk: Moody's ( )
“Indian #banks are the most vulnerable because they have lower capital ratios, and their capital will be wiped out under our stress scenario,” says Moody’s analysing banks in 13 Asia Pacific economies
@anuproy05
In Asia-Pacific economies, Indian banks are at most risk: Moody's ( )
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In a first, Anil Ambani threatened with class action suit at AGM
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You are absolutely right. I do not argue for the sake of argument. I would rather save my time and energy for something better. You would have seen how I stopped replying to you regarding the Anti satellite discussion. It's precisely for the same reason. I mean no offense, but you seriously confuse between facts and conjectures and change goal post so many times, eventually the discussion becomes a drag.
BTW, that smoking thing was meant to pull your leg
. Take it easy..