Indian Economy : News,Discussions & Updates

Please share your thoughts on Indian job market after this crisis is over? Which sectors will see demand and which will go down? What will happen to IT Sector and Indian service Industry? Pharma Sector, Health spending of GoI.

@_Anonymous_ @Falcon @nair @Ashwin @Milspec @vstol Jockey @suryakiran @saho @RISING SUN @Gautam @Quicksilver @Tatvamasi and everyone else.

Slowdown will be seen in luxury, real estate, automotive and non essential sectors. FMCG, Pharma and manufacturing may see boost. Core sectors may see incentives from the GoI via infrastructure spending. The money garnered via non reduction of petroleum products may see being deployed. Agricultural sector will again see debt payoffs. Manufacturing, if we play our cards right we can attract inflows. This needs to be a structural change, because moving rural employment from agriculture to manufacturing can have major ramifications on how we deal with agrarian distress.

Let's see if we make use of this opportunity
 
Information Tech. sector will grow immensely after COVID-19. the world will march faster towards internet transactions - local nukkad shops included. at the very least, they have to gear up for the next such crisis.
this will bring enhanced efficiencies and data mining - which will help in resource utilization, planning.
a second wave of infra growth based on this new data will come in.

exciting time once we get through the dark phase.

but make no mistake. next 2 months in India is going to be horrible.
 
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India plans to fill strategic oil storage by the third week of May
India plans to completely fill its strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) by the third week of May by moving about 19 million barrels into the sites by then, the managing director of the country's SPR said on Tuesday.

India is moving the oil to the SPR to help the country's refineries reduce their excess crude as the lockdown to contain the outbreak of COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the new coronavirus, has dented transportation and industrial fuel consumption in Asia's third-largest economy.

India's fuel demand in March declined by 17.8%, the lowest in over two decades.

India will be diverting cargoes for loading in April already bought by refiners Indian Oil CorpNSE 2.71 %, Bharat PetroleumNSE 4.46 %, Hindustan PetroleumNSE 5.69 % and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd. The refiners cut their crude processing after local fuel demand collapsed and are unable to store the excess oil themselves.

"As of now the plan is to fill the caverns by (the third week of May), before the arrival monsoon rains. We are buying oil from state refiners," H.P.S. Ahuja, the managing director of the Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Ltd (ISPRL) said. ISPRL is responsible for building and filling of SPR sites.

ISPRL wants to receive the cargoes before India's monsoon begins in May as the single point mooring system that can unload very large crude carriers (VLCC) at the port of Mangalore, which will feed two SPR sites, is shut during the three-month rainy season.

Reuters last month reported India planned to buy oil from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia to fill its SPR to gain from low prices.

"We are taking advantage of low oil prices," he said, adding most of these cargoes are linked to official selling prices (OSP) for April.

Saudi Arabia drastically cut its OSPs for April to boost its oil sales after major producers failed to agree to extend a supply curtailment agreement that expired at the end of March.

Ahuja said ISPRL hopes to receive the last oil cargo on May 21, while IOC supplied a VLCC containing oil from the UAE on Monday.

The SPR is divided between three locations in southern India and can store about 37 million barrels of oil, equivalent to about 9.5 days of India's oil demand. A portion of the SPR is already filled.

The federal government has allocated about 38 billion rupees ($498.18 million) for the oil purchases, he said.
India plans to fill strategic oil storage by the third week of May
 
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Record basmati exports from India as Ramadan and pandemic surges demand

By Parshant Krar, ET Bureau | Last Updated: Apr 15, 2020, 08.46 AM IST
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CHANDIGARH: Basmati rice export from India is set to repeat record shipments in FY 20 as exporters cater to spike in global demand for the food grain owing to Covid-19 pandemic and the festival of Ramadan.

Gross exports from the largest rice exporting country is expected to amount to 4.4 million tonnes in FY 20, at par with FY 19, even as consignments were stranded at ports and foreign destination since last week of March due to the nationwide lockdown to combat Covid-19.

“Basmati exports have surged to most traditional overseas markets in the last quarter as consumers have gone for additional stocks due to Covid-19. The rise in demand from Middle East is also buttressed by higher buying for Ramadan,” Vinod Kaul, executive director, All India Rice Exporters Association, said. Kaul said gross exports from India are expected at 4.4 million in 2019-20 ,even though exports had almost come to a standstill in the last week of March. He said the country had its highest volumes of 4.4 million tonnes of basmati 2018-19.

This year shipments have grown by 20-30 percent to key buyers like Saudi Arabia and Iraq. “The additional buying due to Ramadan has also boosted exports in the last quarter,” he said.

But Indian exporters are not entirely amused by the late revival in basmati trade that was dampened earlier in 2019 by rise in hostilities in US-Iran relations. Global shipments of the commodity from India were down by 10 per cent in April-October. The trade had shown an uptick after November as shipments increased to Saudi Arabia, Iran, Jordan, Kuwait and the United States.

Shipments worth Rs 7000-9000 crore are struck at ports in India or export destination as the global supply chain is severely affected in the pandemic hit global market.

“Rice exporters have incurred substantial interest overheads as shipments are delayed due to lockdown. An exporter pays interest of 13-14 per cent on 70-80 per cent of the value of consignments to banks,” said Arvinder Pal Singh, president, Punjab Rice Millers Association. The exporters have sought waiver on interest payments for two months to compensate the loss in margins, he said.

Presently the consignments are struck at ports as sample testing and documentation are affected as courier services are not operational,” Ashok Sehthi, a Punjab-based basmati exporter, said.

Exporters are also worried of rise in paddy prices due to swell in domestic as well as global demand. “The increase in export from India has fueled paddy prices that were highly competitive this year compared to Pakistan. But the prices increased by 6-8 per cent after lockdown and now exporters who have advanced bookings in hand will have to bear substantial squeeze in margins,” said Sanajy Gupta, director, Bharat Cereals.

Exporters rue a sharp increase of up to 30% in freight rates of shipping containers in the past few weeks that has added to cost of logistics. The rise in freights to the US and Europe are most affected.

Record basmati exports from India as Ramadan and pandemic surges demand
 
Opportunity to Reposition Make in India

India's consumer durables businesses are working to reduce single-country sourcing of parts

By Nidhi Singal
New Delhi
April 15, 2020
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Sonia Singh, a 25-year-old, Delhi-based executive had been saving money to buy the latest double-door refrigerator She was set to visit the shop when the government clamped a 21-day lockdown. She has postponed the purchase. She is not alone. Many Indians are postponing purchase of consumer durables and electronic items.

The Rs 76,400 crore Indian appliance and consumer electronics market grew in 2019 after almost two flat years on rising disposable incomes and easy access to credit. However, the Covid-19 outbreak has dampened growth projections. The lockdown in March-April will impact around 27 per cent annual sales, say industry watchers. March's usual contribution of 12 per cent has been close to nothing this year.

Contingency Plan

That is for later. The bigger problem is that India imports about 45 per cent of completely built units and nearly 70 per cent of components for TVs, air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines and more from China. However, contingency plans are in the works. The companies have learnt their lesson and are working to reduce dependence on China and streamline supply as well as distribution. "The coronavirus has exposed fault lines in the global supply chain. In future, the focus of consumer durables enterprises will be on avoiding over-dependence on one country," says Prabhu Ram, Head- Industry Intelligence Group (IIG), CMR.

Consumer durables companies will look to build resilience in the supply chain, with capabilities to detect and act proactively against potential disruptions. While some will focus on having a diversified supply base, others will aim to rapidly localise in India. "For India, the current pandemic provides a clear opportunity to reposition 'Make in India' and provide a conducive policy framework to enable manufacturing with incentives. Over the long term, the over-reliance on China will come down," adds Ram. Once things start moving towards normalcy, OEMs will focus on manufacturing fast moving models. Also, they will explore low cost and no cost EMIs.

Industry insiders say a month's inventory is stuck in channel, across OEMs and retail. The industry is hoping that once the situation improves, the extended summer and demand for air conditioners, refrigerators, coolers and fans will help it revive sooner than later. The inventory in the channel will help OEMs revive production.

With no sales happening, the focus is on after sales service. "In such times, it is important to strengthen trust in after-sales service. We will further strengthen our processes to ensure consumers continue to trust us," says Manish Sharma, President and CEO, Panasonic India and South Asia. According to Ficci, the focus of "Make in India" should shift from reducing dependence on China to utilising Taiwan/ Japan/Korea to create partnerships.

The COVID-19 outbreak could also lead to consumers looking for products focused on health. "Our refrigerators come with Hygiene Fresh+ feature which removes bacteria up to 99.99 per cent, air conditioners with double filtration system that removes harmful substances from air and washing machines with unique steam features to remove 99.9 per cent germs," says Vijay Babu, VP-Home Appliances, LG India. He expects a prolonged summer and is sure of recovering the business lost due to the lockdown.

Much would depend upon how fast the situation can come under control. The optimistic scenario would be that containment and subsequent sentiment restoration happens a few weeks from now. In this scenario, it is estimated that the ongoing negative impact will get diluted over the next few quarters. On the optimistic side, it is expected that the demand in the coming months will compensate for the ongoing deficit. "Due to lockdown, customers are delaying their purchases but we expect sales to rise post recovery from the current crisis. Even demand in areas with high ambient temperature and high humidity will pick up in May and June," avers Mike Chen, Managing Director, TCL India.

Once the situation improves, OEMs expect the industry to bounce back. "The industry should have components and stocks for a month's demand. And that should be a good time for us to get back to our suppliers, to get stocks and resume normal production from the month after," says Kamal Nandi, President-CEAMA & Business Head & EVP, Godrej Appliances.

So, will employees be handed the pink slip? Sachin Gupta, Senior Director, CRISIL Ratings, says, "As of now, the companies are not looking at this as more than a quarter disruption. Much work in consumer durables is being done by channel partners and we don't expect OEMs to lay off their engineering, design or other staff." There is uncertainty around wage workers in channel and retail. Kumar Rajagopalan, CEO, Retailers Association of India, says, "The government should give a three-month job support subsidy at 50 per cent of minimum wages as cash support to encourage retailers to continue employment of staff during the lockdown and the later recovery period."

The industry is optimistic that while the growth will be impacted in the immediate future, it won't push the industry towards the negative curve.

Opportunity to Reposition Make in India- Business News
 
View: Monetisation of deficits – fetters are more in our mind

Globally, governments have rolled out massive fiscal (and monetary) support programmes in order to partially mitigate the impact. The extent of fiscal intervention is varying – but mostly in double-digit percentages (of GDP). Closer home, Malaysia’s fiscal package adds up to a whopping 20% of GDP.


ET CONTRIBUTORS | Last Updated: Apr 15, 2020, 05.04 PM IST
By Somnath Mukherjee
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As we roll on from one round of lockdown to a second, the economic impact of Covd19 are getting ever-so-dire. While its early days in terms of empirical data, there is widespread anecdotal evidence of income destruction – from middle-class employees of Small and Medium Enterprises (SME) that cannot pay salaries as business has disappeared to millions of daily-wage workers who have lost wages as construction sites and factories have been shut.

Globally, governments have rolled out massive fiscal (and monetary) support programmes in order to partially mitigate the impact. The extent of fiscal intervention is varying – but mostly in double-digit percentages (of GDP). Closer home, Malaysia’s fiscal package adds up to a whopping 20% of GDP. US, Japan and Germany have also announced packages in the 10-15% (of GDP) range. India’s fiscal support, in comparison, has been very modest (yet) – a basic income support programme rolled out a few weeks ago adds up to an incremental 40-50,000 crores – less than 0.5% of GDP.

The biggest question behind large fiscal plans is the obvious one – how to finance the expenditure? Globally, the strategy adopted by many governments is a coordinated fiscal-monetary strategy – government issues more bonds to finance a larger fiscal programme, while the Central Bank (CB) purchases these bonds on its own balance-sheet in the process. There are various interesting terms to describe the phenomenon – Helicopter money (made famous by Ben Bernanke, ex-Chairman of the US Federal Reserve), MMT (or Modern Monetary Theory – a not-so-new concept made popular recently – about government having the ability to print as many notes as it takes to remove unemployment) or indeed Deficit Monetisation (the oldest definition of the exercise).

Deficit Monetization (DM) is a controversial topic though, often linked up with weighty intellectual issues like CB independence. Not all CB purchases of government bonds is DM though. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) conducts regular Open Market Operations (OMOs) – which essentially involve buying and selling of Government Securities (G-Secs) – to obtain its monetary policy objectives around interest rates, yield curve and liquidity. RBI also operates a Repo/Reverse-Repo window – via which it lends (and accepts) short-term (and recently, even medium-term) money to banks against the latters’ holdings in G-Secs – again to modulate monetary policy outcomes. In effect, large RBI intervention in the G-Sec market is part of monetary policy operations, somewhat independent of the fiscal strategy of the government.

The real issue is around DM. It’s a practice that was an important tool to finance fiscal deficits till 1997 (via a tool called the ad-hoc T-bills), when it was taken off the policy table through a law.

Issue is, there is no choice. India’s needs are far too great, and the impact of a lockdown on a country at a per-capita income level of $2000 too much for any tool to be off the toolbox. What are the risks?

First, and biggest one, is of inflation. With RBI printing a lot of money to buy G-Secs, money supply will shoot up and engender an inflationary spiral. Now this has several mitigating factors. One, the transmission of RBI “printing money”, ie, creating Base Money (M0) to broad money (M3) – via the money multiplier – is going to be slow. As it is, because of slower credit growth, the multiplier in India has been trending down for several years now. With the lockdown, the moratorium (on several loans allowed by RBI) and invariable slow recovery, credit growth is unlikely to be high. Ergo, the multiplier is likely to stay low – thereby ensuring that the growth of M3 is far more modest than the growth in M0. Further, growth in M3, assuming constant productivity, translates into higher inflation via Velocity of Mooney (V) – or the number of times money is rotated within the economic system. Here again, with economic activity currently nearly shut down and expected to recover only gradually, V is expected to remain at very modest level. Put both together – low Multiplier and low V – and the risk of higher inflation with RBI “printing money” goes away substantially.

Second oft-quote risk of DM is external vulnerability. The rationale is that aggressive DM could devalue the currency, causing foreign investors to lose confidence and pull out money, putting the existing fiscal financing plan at risk. Now this is structurally not an issue for India. Government of India does not fund itself via direct external borrowings. India allows a very limited access to G-Secs to foreign investors – as a result total foreign holdings of domestic G-Secs is barely ~5%. That number is far higher for most developing countries – creating an external financing cap (and dependence) on fiscal expansion. India’s external account, thanks to record low oil prices, is in good shape (current account deficit should remain well within the 2% comfort zone for the year). With a fisc funded nearly 100% via local savings, there is very little foreign capital vulnerability – much easier to embark on an aggressive DM to prime up the economy. Such an exercise would likely take the economy faster towards recovery – leading to better corporate performance – which in turn would cheer foreign investors in equity (who are far bigger and more relevant for equity investment into India than debt).

Last but not least is the question of “good inflation”. With a lockdown, the most immediate issue that policymakers have to contend with would be a dramatic fall in inflation. That has deleterious impact on taxes, wages and ability of the government to take on more debt. The risk of very low inflation (no-one is still talking about deflation in India yet) is as real as the one of high inflation. “Printing money” ensures a backstop to ensure a certain amount of inflation in the economy – enabling the government to inflate away at least part of the new debt it is taking on to provide a safety net for the economy.

Consistency in policymaking is often touted as a virtue. But in extreme scenarios more than otherwise, consistency is merely a hobgoblin of mediocre minds. We need inspirations beyond mediocrity to kick-start India back into action. Monetisation is perhaps the sharpest inspiration in the quiver today.

(The author is Managing Partner, ASK Wealth advisors)

View: Monetisation of deficits – fetters are more in our mind
 
India to restart industry engine from April 20

By Kirtika Suneja, ET Bureau | Last Updated: Apr 16, 2020, 01.35 PM IST
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New Delhi: The Narendra Modi administration on Wednesday took an important step towards resumption of normal economic activity by partially lifting restrictions on manufacturing and construction, and further eased movement of goods traffic from April 20.

Nearly 80% of India’s export units located in special economic zones, export oriented units (EOUs) and industrial townships and clusters could resume work in some form by April 20. Government officials say around 1,000 units in special economic zones (SEZs) could become operational.

The ministry of home affairs (MHA) on Wednesday set out detailed guidelines for partial resumption of economic activity with the nation divided into hotspot and non-hotspot districts. The ministry of health and family affairs has identified 170 hotspot districts — called red zones — with highest incidence of Covid-19, 207 yellow zone districts with some cases and 359 green zone districts with no cases in last 28 days. The new permitted activities can begin in these green zones, subject to permission from state or district administration.

While the industry will be somewhat relieved, many restrictions will remain in place, especially on factories, establishments and service industries operating within city and municipal limits.

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All industrial activity in rural areas and outside municipal and city limits has been allowed, including manufacturing of essentials such as drugs, medical supplies and equipment.

Food Processing Units, Cargo Movement

Food processing units in rural areas have been allowed to resume. All cargo movement through road and railways has been permitted, including loading and unloading at major ports and land ports. Highway dhabas and restaurants will be allowed to remain open and movement of trucks has been permitted.

The government has also allowed construction activity to resume in rural areas and outside city and municipal limits and industrial parks, including those under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS) in another major decision that will impact rural livelihood and incomes.

Restrictions have been lifted on construction of renewable projects, and construction firms and real estate companies have been asked to resume work in places where workers are available on site and don’t have to be brought in from elsewhere.

“I am happy to see the notification by MHA. I am glad that this gives us some clarity on what could happen after April 20,” TV Narendran, MD, Tata Steel, told a television channel.

At present, around 400 units in SEZs which are in essential sectors such as pharmaceuticals producing PPEs and power are already active while 2,000-odd units in the information technology sector are functional but their employees are working from home. “In the first week beginning April 20, we expect 1,000 units to become active but that depends on many factors such as the kind of industry and if they can maintain social distancing,” said an official.

India has 232 SEZs with almost 6,000 units.

Development commissioners of SEZs have begun talks with industry, especially with nonoperational units, and the next 4-5 days will see extensive discussions on transportation, logistics and how labour can be used in a staggered manner. Once these talks are over, the units can come forward and state if they can observe those norms and requirements.

“These units will not become 100% functional. As of now, even the essential ones are working with 20% labour,” the official said, adding that the government will facilitate the opening of units within the prescribed rules.

As per Federation of Indian Export Organisations, around 80-85% exporting units, mostly in engineering, pharmaceuticals, electronics and chemicals, are likely to become operational with the government allowing manufacturing and industrial establishments in SEZs and export oriented units (EOUs), industrial estates and industrial townships to resume operations after April 20.

While units can restart work, exporters have suggested once-a-week pass for firms with Importer Exporter Code (IEC) so that they’re able to submit the required documents with banks for payments to get processed.

“Since in exports, documents are extremely important to show proof of delivery and negotiation, exporting companies having IEC number may be allowed passes for two persons, once a week, to collect documents from the office for submission to banks, shipping lines, courier companies,” said Sharad Kumar Saraf, president, FIEO.

SEZs and EOUs provide direct employment to more than 25 lakh people with investment of more than Rs. 5.5 lakh crore and contribute Rs. 7.87 lakh crore to India’s export basket, which is one third of total national exports.

“The guidelines now allow manufacturing as well while only exports were allowed earlier. However, they don’t provide clarity on domestic tariff area. We are waiting for states’ orders,” said a Kolkata-based engineering goods exporter.

As per another exporter, industry wants clear and simplified guidelines from states on areas where movement will not be allowed. "Only 5% of the units are in EOUs. Also, we will need around 7-10 days to prepare for our units to begin work such as cleaning and sanitising,” said EEPC India chairman Ravi Sehgal.

India’s exports in FY20 declined 4.8% to $314.3 billion, with a whopping 34.57% in March to $21.41 billion.

The MHA guidelines have also introduced important caveats with major restrictions remaining in place across the country. Domestic and international air travel will remained suspended till May 3. Road travel through buses and rail travel will not be permitted. Inter-district and inter-state movement of people will also be banned.

Restrictions have been lifted on all agriculture, horticulture and fisheries, providing a huge fillip to rural economy during the crucial harvest season. Work can also resume in plantations.

The government has allowed companies and units located in access-controlled SEZs, EOUs, industrial townships to resume work, provided they maintain social distancing norms, arrange transport and a place for workers to stay within the township.

Production at coal mines, oil and gas sites, refineries and units which require continuous process will be allowed, the government said. Manufacture of IT hardware will also be permitted while IT and IT services companies will be allowed to resume work with 50% strength. Work can resume in ecommerce firms and vehicles used by these firms have been allowed to ply. Courier services have also been allowed to operate.

India to restart industry engine from April 20
 
Indian Begins Export of Major Farm Items amid Coronavirus Lockdown, Says Ministry

The Union Agriculture Ministry in a statement said exporters' problems are being resolved by the farm export promotion body Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA).


By PTI
Updated: April 15, 2020, 8:46 PM IST
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For Representation.

India has started export of major farm products such as rice, meat, dairy and processed food items after the government stepped in to resolve the issues related to transportation and packaging in the wake of COVID-19 lockdown.

The Union Agriculture Ministry in a statement said exporters' problems are being resolved by the farm export promotion body Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA).

"Exports of all major products i.e. rice, groundnut, processed food, meat, poultry, dairy and organic products has started," the ministry said.

APEDA has put in a lot of efforts and issues related to transportation, curfew passes, and packaging units, which are being resolved, it said.

The ministry said the government has adopted a "flexible approach" and is issuing digital copies of phytosanitary certificates for exports. So far, the government has issued 9,759 phytosanitary certificates for exports, it added.

On specific demand from countries, agri-cooperative NAFED has exported 50,000 tonnes of wheat to Afghanistan, while 40,000 tonne of the grain to Lebanon under G2G arrangement.

As far as imports are concerned, the government said digital copies of phytosanitary certificates are being accepted with undertaking from the importer for submission of original when received. About 2,728 consignments were released for imports so far, the ministry said.

Further, 33 'Import Permits' for import of pesticides, 309 certificates for export of pesticides and 1,324 certificates to facilitate indigenous manufacturers of pesticides were issued, it added.

These are among several measures the ministry has taken to ensure the country's agriculture and its allied sector do not suffer from the ongoing COVID-19 lockdown.

Indian Begins Export of Major Farm Items amid Coronavirus Lockdown, Says Ministry
 
Coronavirus impact: Wheels turn to wean away factories from China

By ANANDITA SINGH MANKOTIA
ET Bureau | Updated: Apr 16, 2020, 11.39 AM IST
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New Delhi: The Indian government held high-level meetings to set in motion a strategy to wean away manufacturing from China and fast-tracking efforts by tapping into palpable global anger against the Far East nation amid the Covid-19 outbreak, officials familiar with the matter said.

“Countries such as Japan are already looking to diversify their manufacturing and supply chains to newer destinations…the government is working to address disabilities across sectors, including for pharmaceuticals and automobiles, to try and establish India as an alternate to China for manufacturing for local and global markets across sectors,” one of the officials privy to the matter, told ET. The idea is to spur employment, revenue and earn forex by making India an export hub.

Last week, the Japanese government announced that it has earmarked $2.2 billion of its record economic stimulus package to help its manufacturers shift production out of China as the coronavirus disrupts supply chains between the major trading partners.

The government is aware that almost all countries, including the US, have received a “massive jolt” with the outbreak of Covid-19 and realise they need to diversify risk in their production lines.

“India is at a very sweet spot and the Indian government wants to ‘tap’ into this potential,” another official said. India had kick started such efforts, but has so far been focused on electronics manufacturing.

The government last month notified three schemes with incentives totalling ₹48,000 crore to boost mobile phone manufacturing in the country and the dominant production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme has the lion’s share of close to ₹41,000 crore with sops to be spread over three years. The aim is to attract top smartphone players like Apple, Samsung, Oppo and Vivo to set up their entire value chain in India, and make the country their export hub.

Coronavirus impact: Wheels turn to wean away factories from China
 
Crop procurement begins, boosts rural sentiment

By Prashant Krar, Rituraj Tiwari
Last Updated: Apr 15, 2020, 11.09 PM IST
By ANI

The government’s top priority is the kharif, or summer sown crop, which accounts for 90% of rice and 70% of oilseeds produced in the country. Official agencies started buying wheat in parts of Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh amid strict Covid-19 protocol.

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Chandigarh| New Delhi: Crop procurement, the biggest economic activity in most parts of northern and central India, began smoothly on Wednesday boosting rural sentiment and calming farmers who were anxious about a two-week delay in the harvest.

The government’s top priority is the kharif, or summer sown crop, which accounts for 90% of rice and 70% of oilseeds produced in the country. Official agencies started buying wheat in parts of Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh amid strict Covid-19 protocol.

Procurement will begin in Haryana on April 20 and in Rajasthan on Thursday. “About 100,000 passes have been issued to farmers in the last three days to facilitate harvesting and procurement in Punjab,” said Ravi Bhagat managing director of Punjab Mandi Board.

Market operations began slowly amid restrictions. “The harvesting will peak in next four-five days,” an official said. Official agencies expect average daily procurement of 20,000-22,000 tonne instead of usual 50,000 tonne.

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“Farmers are employing local labour for harvesting but mandi operations are dealing with less than half of usual labour as lockdown has reduced labour availability,” a trader in Patiala said. In Uttar Pradesh, around 5,000 tonne of wheat is likely to be procured on the first day.

Most of the grain is coming from Jhansi and Bundelkhand regions, where the crop is in advance stage of maturity,” an official said. UP aims to buy 5.5 million tonnes while Madhya Pradesh is likely to purchase 10 million tonnes.

Agriculture minister Narendra Singh Tomar will take a stock of preparations for the next crop and interact with states at the kharif conference on Thrusday. He will review availability of inputs like seeds and fertiliser.

The kharif season is crucial to ensure the country’s food security as bumper output in last three years helped meet the requirement after Covid-19 outbreak . “We could manage the lockdown well as our godowns were full. We need to ensure bumper production yet again to keep the granaries flowing,” said a senior agriculture department official.

Crop procurement begins, boosts rural sentiment
 
Korean companies keen to move out of China to India

By Rajesh Chandramouli | TNN | Apr 14, 2020, 04:00 IST

Chennai: Rising trade war between US & China has pushed South Korean companies to consider moving some of their factories from China to India.

The Korean consulate in Chennai has been working with a number of requests, some in preliminary stages, while others advanced stages.

“We have requests from two iron and steel companies, some startups and one from the hospitality sector which wants to come to India from China,” said Yup Lee, the deputy consul general for the Consulate General of The Republic of Korea.

He said that the Indian government was keen to see Posco and Hyundai Steel, set up their factories in Andhra Pradesh. “They are looking for 5,000 acres of land and port connectivity,” said sources.

“The two companies agreed they would go to AP if they decide to invest,” Lee said. The decision to invest in new factories in India will be driven by an early return of growth in a Post-Covid world. “So far no actions from the two companies. Mainly because of low demand”.
Besides, these two giants, a number of small tech companies are also keen to invest in India.

“There are a number of companies which want to come to India. But with Covid, there might be some delays,” he added.

Only couple of days back Deepak Parekh, chairman of mortgage lender HDFC had said that Indian government must open up and receive Japanese companies which are keen to move out of China as part of de-risking strategy. The Japanese government is learnt to have spent nearly $2 billion to relocate companies out of China.

“We should make it easy for the Japanese to come to India rather than them going to Malaysia, Vietnam or Thailand. States have to take the initiative and offer them 2,000 to 5,000 acres in some special zone where they do not have to look for land or building approvals,” said Parekh.

Korean companies keen to move out of China to India - Times of India
 
India’s current account may turn surplus in FY21: SBI

India always had this in deficit, where it imported more than it exported. That could change this year.

ET Bureau | Last Updated: Apr 17, 2020, 08.30 AM IST
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MUMBAI: State Bank of India has forecast the economy to grow a meagre 1.1% for the fiscal year as businesses are thrown into disarray due to the lockdown which has been extended till May 3. But a positive fallout could be India’s mostly fragile external balance could turn stronger with a current account surplus due to a plunge in oil prices.

“The lockdown is going to have a significant impact on our macro parameters,’’ said State Bank of India economist SK Ghosh, in a research note. “With the lockdown now being extended till May 3 and simultaneously government providing some relaxations...we estimate the overall loss for FY21 around ₹12.1 lakh crore.’’

With Covid-19 crippling economic activities across the globe leading to a collapse in crude prices, India could benefit on the current account. India always had this in deficit, where it imported more than it exported. That could change this year. “Taking oil and non-oil imports together, we can also see 25% dip in merchandise imports,’’ said Ghosh who forecasts a current account surplus of 0.7% of the gross domestic product at $19 billion this fiscal.

India’s current account may turn surplus in FY21: SBI
 
Slowly, India Inc begins to fire up its engines

ET Bureau | Last Updated: Apr 17, 2020, 08.23 AM IST
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At least eight publicly listed companies have taken steps to restart operations with a limited workforce after obtaining permission from the authorities, show data compiled by the ETIG from stock exchange filings.

Top executives of some of these companies told ET that while India Inc is working hard to restart factories under the Covid-19 lockdown, restoration of the supply chain across the country will be critical for the economy to get moving again.

The list of companies includes Pidilite Industries, the country’s largest adhesive maker; Eveready Industries, the largest dry cell maker; Navin Fluorine, a market leader in fluorochemicals; Hikal, a manufacturer of active pharmaceutical ingredients; Prataap Snacks, a major manufacturer of extruded ring snacks; carbon steel pipe maker Man Industries; and Yasho Industries, which supplies intermediate oils to personal care companies. The stocks of these companies gained 1-10% Thursday on the BSE.

LIMITED RESUMPTION AFTER APRIL 20


However, smooth supply chain management and raw material procurement remain a challenge given that 170 districts are still identified as hotspots — areas with a higher concentration of Covid-19 infection.

“We have around 4,000 dealers across the country, but reaching out to them during the lockdown is challenging for us,” Eveready executive director Amritanshu Khaitan told ET. With five manufacturing plants in India, the company has over 50% share of the dry cell battery segment. It has now reopened one of its plants at Maddur in Karnataka after deep cleaning. The plant will function with 30-40% of the workforce to abide by the government’s social distancing directive.

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India has extended a lockdown that began on March 25 to May 3 but several mainstream business activities will be allowed to resume after April 20 in areas relatively free of Covid-19 infection provided safeguards are observed.

Pidilite Industries told the stock exchanges that two units of the company have partially resumed operations. The company has three plants in Maharashtra, two in Himachal Pradesh and one each in Gujarat, Daman, Telangana and Assam, according to FY19 annual reports.

Indore-headquartered Prataap Snacks, which sells 11 million packs of snacks every day, has restarted production of its contract manufacturing plants at Kashipur, Raigad and Hisar. It has five inhouse plants and nine contract manufacturing units.

Amit Kumar Kumat, executive director at Prataap Snacks, told ET that product availability will improve in the next few days as the government has given permission for transport of finished goods from Indore and Guwahati. In the next few days, the Guwahati plant is likely to resume operations, thereby increasing capacity utilisation to nearly half. The company has more than 4,100 distributors and reaches over 1.7 million retail touch points.

SOME SUPPLY CHAIN ISSUES

Prataap Snacks faced supply chain issues owing to disruption in truck movement in some areas.

“The volume offtake from metros has been more impacted given a large number of hotspots, but it has been quite smooth in tier II and III cities,” said Kumat. The procurement of raw materials, particularly potatoes from farmers, has not yet been interrupted, he added.

Vapi-based Yasho Industries, a supplier of fatty esters and aroma oils to consumer goods companies, is hopeful that there will be a smooth restoration of raw material supply in the coming days.

“Our raw material stocks will be sufficient for the next 8-10 days. This should improve with more relaxation in industrial activity after April 20,” said Parag Jhaveri, CMD at Yasho Industries. With the labour-intensive nature of production, the company will be using at least 50% of the workforce. In a bid to maintain social distancing, the company has introduced an extended lunch break.

Slowly, India Inc begins to fire up its engines
 
RBI projects India's growth at 7.4% in 2020-21, cuts reverse repo rate to 3.75% amid COVID-19 crisis

Updated: Fri, 17 Apr 2020; 11:26 AM IST
Posted By: Abhinav Gupta
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New Delhi | Jagran Business Desk: RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday forecasted India’s growth rate at 7.4 per cent in 2020-21, saying that the country is expected to post a sharp turnaround and resume its pre-covid, pre-slowdown trajectory.

Quoting the projections by IMF amid the COVID-19 crisis, Das said: "For 2020-21, International Monetary Fund projects sizable reshaped recoveries, close to 9 percentage points for the global GDP. India is expected to post a sharp turnaround and resume its pre-covid, pre-slowdown trajectory by growing at 7.4% in 2020-21."

"On April 14, International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its global growth projections revealing that in 2020, the global economy is expected to plunge into the worst recession since 'The Great Depression'," he said.

Again quoting IMF growth projections, Das said that the global economy is expected to plunge into the worst recession since 'The Great Depression'.

The RBI also cut the reverse report rate by 25 basis points to 3.75 per cent while keeping the repo rate unchanged.

In a bid to to improve liquidity of SMEs, Das announced that the RBI has allocated Rs 50,000 crore to financial institutions such as Nabard, Sidbi and NHB.

He also announced that banks will not be making any further dividend payout in view of financial difficulties arising from COVID-19.

Furthermore, the 90-day NPA norm will not be implemented on moratorium granted on existing loans by banks, Das annouced. Last month, the central bank had asked all lending institutions to allow a three-month moratorium on EMI payments in order to infuse liquidity into the system as the economy grapples with coronavirus challenges.

Das said the inflation is on a declining trajectory and could fall below the central bank's 4 per cent target by the second half of this fiscal amid challenges posed by Covid-19 pandemic. He said the consumer price index based retail inflation has fallen by 170 bps from its January 2020 peak.

Das added that such an outlook would make policy space available to address the intensification of risks to growth and financial stability brought about by Covid-19. The retail inflation for March fell to a four-month low of 5.91 per cent on cheaper food articles.

Stating that the RBI is monitoring situation developing out of Covid-19 outbreak, he noted that the contraction in exports in March at 34.6 per cent much more severe than global financial crisis of 2008-09.

Das began his address by quoting Mahatma Gandhi, saying: 'In the midst of death life persists, in the midst of untruth, truth persists, in the midst of darkness light persists.'

On March 27, RBI held a historic pre-term MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting whererin the repo rate was cut by a record 75 basis points. The repo rate was reduced to a 15-year-low of 4.40 per cent and was also the steepest cut since October 2004.

The same day, the central bank cut the cash reserve ratio by 100 bps to 3 per cent apart from announcing various measures to boost liquidity in the system.

There were calls that the 75 bps cuts was not sufficient and that RBI could go for more rate cuts and liquidity measures. Many brokerages had said RBI could slash the lending rates by another 100 bps.

RBI projects India's growth at 7.4% in 2020-21, cuts reverse repo rate to 3.75% amid COVID-19 crisis