Indian Economy : News,Discussions & Updates

India weighing RCEP’s fresh proposal to re-join talks

By Amiti Sen
New Delhi | Updated on May 01, 2020 Published on May 01, 2020
1588399870887.png


The Commerce Ministry and MEA will decide after possible consultations with PMO


India is considering a fresh proposal sent by the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) members, that include the ASEAN, China, South Korea and Japan, asking it to re-join the negotiations and also indicating that some of the terms laid down by the country when it quit the talks last year may be met, an official has said.

The letter, proposing that India should get back on the negotiating table, was sent by the 15-member RCEP, which also includes Australia and New Zealand, following a meeting of the RCEP Trade Negotiations Committee on April 20-24.

At the negotiating committee meeting, the RCEP countries resolved to try and sort out India’s outstanding issues and also reiterated their intention to wrap up the free trade talks by 2020-end.

“India has received a formal letter from the RCEP asking it to join back the negotiations and also agreeing to certain terms which could help in meeting some of the concerns it raised earlier. The Commerce Ministry and the Ministry of External Affairs are, right now, examining the letter and discussing what India’s course of action should be,” a person close to the negotiations told BusinessLine.

The RCEP could be one of the biggest free trade blocs in the world if India joins, accounting for 39 per cent of global GDP, 30 per cent of global trade and 45 per cent of the total population.

India, which was the sixteenth member of the RCEP, had quit the talks in November 2019, as it could not agree on crucial issues including the level of market openings being demanded by members, especially China. New Delhi was being asked to eliminate duties on 80 per cent-90 per cent of its total traded products.

The country was also concerned that the lax Rules of Origin (ROO), which members were not ready to tighten, could allow Chinese products to be routed through other member country markets.

India’s exit was prompted by strong protests from various segments of the Indian industry, farmers groups as well as the dairy sector which complained that eliminating duties for RCEP members on most traded products would spell doom for them.

“A decision to re-join the negotiations cannot be taken casually as India’s exit was a well thought out move directed at protecting domestic industry and farmers. The Commerce Ministry and the MEA may also consult the Prime Minister’s Office after studying the RCEP communication to decide what to do,” the official said.

While several RCEP members including New Zealand, Japan, Australia and South Korea approached India after its exit from the group trying to persuade it to join back, India made it clear that it could not do so till all its concerns were met. Instead, it proposed that member countries should look at bilateral free trade pacts with India.

India weighing RCEP’s fresh proposal to re-join talks
 
Farm incomes help beat EMI blues in rural India

By Lijee Philip, ET Bureau|Last Updated: May 02, 2020, 09.16 AM IST
1588400335534.png

Mahindra Finance has reached out to an estimated 15 lakh customers and 20% of them did not want to avail of the moratorium.

MUMBAI:
About 20-25% of the farming community hasn’t opted for the moratorium on loan repayments announced by Reserve Bank of India, according to finance companies. Executives ET spoke with at lenders such as Cholamandalam, Mahindra Finance, HDFC Bank and L&T Finance said they were witnessing better collections at their rural branches than in urban centres.

A good harvest as well as the possibility of a faster economic recovery in rural India, much of which has remained free of Covid-19, are giving borrowers the confidence to repay. In urban centres, however, a “sizeable chunk” of borrowers are using the moratorium to conserve cash amid uncertainties over salary cuts and job losses, said an executive.

Also, farmers tend to pay off debt when they have money, according to economists.

“Most of the farmers do not want to avail of the moratorium, as they prefer to clear their liabilities, have a clean record without debt,” said Madan Sabnavis, the chief economists at CARE Ratings.

The farming community takes loan primarily to buy tractors and pick-up vehicles, said Paul Thomas, the founder of ESAF, a small finance bank with significant rural presence. “By default the moratorium facility is given to the customers and, in our case, 20% of customers have not opted for it and were willing to make payments,” he said.

Mahindra Finance has reached out to an estimated 15 lakh customers and 20% of them did not want to avail of the moratorium.

“The rural farming community and local shop owners have money to pay up and did not want any financial burden to mount for the future” said managing director Ramesh Iyer. The company works primarily in the rural sector and most of its branches in UP, Bihar and Rajasthan saw collections picking up in the last few weeks, Iyer said.

Many rural customers who typically made repayments physically are now opting for digital payments because of the lockdown and social distancing norms.

A top executive at a Mumbai-based finance company said it was getting 2,500 digital EMI payments per day from rural branches. Digital collections used to be nil at these branches 10-12 months back, he added.

Economists and finance industry executives expect a fillip to farm-focussed activities, with a large part of the migrant labour force returning to their native villages from urban centres, several of which are Covid-19 hotspots and are likely to see extended lockdown. This is expected to boost loan demand from the rural sector, for equipment such as tractors.

“Farmers are not highly impacted by this current pandemic, as 65-70% of the districts remain Covid free,” said Ashok Khanna, ex-group head of vehicle loans at HDFC Bank. “…the harvest has been good for wheat, sugarcane, pulses and the government will buy and warehouse these products. The farm cash flows should improve and the collections in April are coming from the farming community.”

The average loan size by a large finance company is Rs 4-5 lakh in rural India, while for a micro lender, it is Rs 30,000 to Rs 1 lakh. The average duration for repayment is 42-48 months.

Manoj Nambiar, MD, Arohan Financial Services and chairman of Microfinancial Institutions (MFIN) adds that he too sees at least one-third of the customers not opting for the extended moratorium . "We took a written declaration of those not opting for the moratorium. Many are paying up the EMIs, as they don't want to spoil their credit record. This could result in a section of our member companies coming under stress as the loan is not running its full tenure and beyond”.

While the rural environment looks positive despite the worries over the coronavirus outbreak in the country, a senior official at a Mumbai-based finance company has put in a word of caution: the wellbeing of the rural economy would still be dependent on farmers’ ability to sell their produce and getting cash on hand, and that might face challenges because of the continuing spread of Covid-19.

A large part of the migrant labour force expected to return to their native villages is also likely to get into agriculture based activities in rural India providing a fillip to agri-based or farm focussed industries.

A senior official of a South based finance company said that there is going to be a demand for tractors and the dealerships in some of the locations have opened up and farmers would start buying tractors.

The unorganised sector today accounts for more than 90% of the country’s workforce. The Reserve Bank of India announced a three-month moratorium option to provide relief due to the ongoing lockdown. Clearly the migrant sector is not taking up this offer, preferring to chart their own path instead.

Farm incomes help beat EMI blues in rural India
 
  • Like
Reactions: _Anonymous_
Privatisation enters agri market: For the first time, farmers will have option other than govt

By: Samrat Sharma|Updated: May 1, 2020 8:50:05 PM

MP CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan has announced that exporters, traders, food processors, etc, can open a private mandi and can buy the agriculture produce by visiting the farmer’s land or house.
1588430394271.png

The amendment in the mandi rules is aimed at giving freedom to the farmers to sell their produce at a better price, and on their own choice.

Farmers in Madhya Pradesh can now sell their produce at more competitive prices, that too, without going to mandis. MP CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan has announced that exporters, traders, food processors, etc, can open a private mandi and can buy the agriculture produce by visiting the farmer’s land or house. The amendment in the mandi rules is aimed at giving freedom to the farmers to sell their produce at a better price, and on their own choice. The minister called the move revolutionary and highly progressive for farmers’ benefit. The private mandis will be operating apart from the normal mandis.

MP CM also mentioned that there will be only one license on which the private mandis can buy the agri produce from all over the state and the mandi fee will also be charged at only one place. Besides, the state has also decided to launch an e-trading facility that will allow the states’ farmers to trade with any other trading body across the country.

Meanwhile, the government has kept the mandi tax unchanged, therefore, it is expected to keep the burden intact. “The fall in demand due to lockdown and the nearly banned exports will create an oversupply of agri produce with the farmers. Besides, the travel restrictions have restricted the farmers from going to mandis. In this case, the traders can put a psychological pressure on them to sell their produce at bare minimum prices since the farmers neither have sufficient storage space nor have the window to bear the financial burden for long,” Ashok Vishandass, former Chairman, Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices, told Financial Express Online. The move will not be effective in the short-term and instead, waiving off the mandi tax could have helped much more, he added.

Privatisation enters agri market: For the first time, farmers will have option other than govt
 
As India marched to stock up, stores saw bumper sales

By Writankar Mukherjee, Smita Balram
ET Bureau|Last Updated: May 02, 2020, 10.40 AM IST
1588474470819.png

Reliance Retail’s grocery sales in March helped it to grow in this segment by a record 44% with sales of Rs 10,043 crore in the January-March quarter.

Kolkata | Bengaluru:
India’s top food and grocery retail chains such as Future Group, More, Reliance Fresh, Spencer's Retail and Nature’s Basket have reported their highest-ever sales in March, driven by panic buying of staples and food products before and during the lockdown.

Three senior industry executives said these chains posted 15-20% higher sales than their previous best, which was during Diwali. Sequentially, growth was 25-30% more in March than February, they said.

Even e-grocers such as Grofers and BigBasket joined the league with record sales in March and April despite disruptions due to lack of labour amid a surge in orders. The nationwide lockdown began on March 25 but people began hoarding before that.

Spencer’s Retail and Nature’s Basket CEO Devendra Chawla said consumers advanced their April purchases to March as they bought more per shopping trip in the days ahead of the lockdown, leading to a higher average bill value than usual. “While non-essential sales like apparel and general merchandise were down given lockdown restrictions, the grocery business saw sales even higher than the Diwali month,” he said.

Grofers cofounder Albinder Dhindsa said March sales exceeded that of Diwali as it got a lot of first-time online shoppers making purchases, clocking a gross merchandise value of Rs 415 crore. He said consumers are still buying in bulk and stocking up on a rotating basis.

1588474348498.png


Higher Average Value Per Order

“Average value per order has increased by 48% in the first week of the lockdown and is continuing to remain significantly above normal,” said Dhindsa.

Reliance Retail’s grocery sales in March helped it to grow in this segment by a record 44% with sales of Rs 10,043 crore in the January-March quarter. In January and February, the grocery business had grown 35%. The country’s largest retailer said in an analyst call on Thursday that the average bill value was at a historic high for the grocery business.

Retailers said their smaller outlets led the trend in March with consumers preferring to buy from neighbourhood locations instead of traveling to malls.

For instance, Future Group’s 1,000 or so smaller stores such as EasyDay, Nilgiris and Heritage increased sales by a record 70-100% in March. While Big Bazaar’s food business was up by over 20%, overall sales slowed due to the bar on non-essentials and lower footfall in mall outlets, an industry executive said. Future Group and More did not respond to queries.

CHANGE IN SHOPPING BASKET

The shopping basket underwent a change, with consumers buying more of basic staples such as rice, flour and pulses in the first phase of the lockdown, said wholesaler Metro Cash & Carry India MD Arvind Mediratta. They are now purchasing more processed food such as readyto-make foods, noodles, pasta, snacks and condiments.

Sales tracker Nielsen said almost a third of consumers in metros started purchasing fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) from chain stores and ecommerce in the last quarter as compared to 27% in same period last year. This pushed up the national average of these two channels to 13.7% from 11.5%.

Business has been growing month-on-month and sales in April exceeded the peak in March, said Seshu Kumar, national head, buying and merchandising, BigBasket. “We expect the momentum to continue because of change in buying habits of customers,” he said.

As India marched to stock up, stores saw bumper sales
 
This Lockdown will cost 25 Lakh Crores to Indian economy and you are dreaming of War
A $2.6 trillion economy adds $156 Billion growing at the rate of 6% per annum, which translates to $13 billion per month, for two months it will be $26 billion. This is just simple math and real impact will of course be higher and stretched for multiple months, if we double this to around $50 Billion it will translate to around 380 thousand crore or 3.8 Lakh crore.

25 Lakh Crore will be 6-7 times this figure and is not realistic. It will translate to around $330 billion, which is not realistic even if we grow at 0% the loss will be around $160 billion. So unless GDP contracts this figure is far fetched.
 
A $2.6 trillion economy adds $156 Billion growing at the rate of 6% per annum, which translates to $13 billion per month, for two months it will be $26 billion. This is just simple math and real impact will of course be higher and stretched for multiple months, if we double this to around $50 Billion it will translate to around 380 thousand crore or 3.8 Lakh crore.

25 Lakh Crore will be 6-7 times this figure and is not realistic. It will translate to around $330 billion, which is not realistic even if we grow at 0% the loss will be around $160 billion. So unless GDP contracts this figure is far fetched.

All.Discretionary spending is coming to a grinding halt for One year at least

GDP will contract ,

The businesses will not repay loans for a year , Neither will the farmers or Mudra loans

Banks are demanding sovereign guarantee to give further loans to MSMEs , Banks will need more Government help

Many sectors such as tourism , Travel
Hotels , Cinemas , Gold and jewellery
Real estate , Automobiles -- ie everything which is
Discretionary Spending will be stopped or minimised because of A UNCERTAIN FUTURE

Right now lockdown is in force

So the recovery process has not even begun

Even CII has said that recovery will.take one year
 
Last edited:

Modi's love for his home state gujarat trumps Mumbai's natural claim to be international financial services center
Fake claim. IFSC was approved for Gandhinagar during year 2011 itself. Then Congress was in center as well as in our state Maharashtra along with Sharad Pawar Ji NCP.
I wonder if people will ever vote for BJP
Again

I wont , never
I won't if I get a better option. We thought about AAP once but as soon as the aligned with Congress, it was all done. As of now I feel hopeless as voting for NOTA is waste as that isn't even considered for decision making.