March quarter current account ends in a surplus after more than a decade
India's external position improved with the current account turning a surplus in the fourth quarter for the first time in more than a decade as a surge in private transfers and software services income helped. The full year current account deficit was the lowest in three years, data from the RBI showed. But a possible slowdown in inward remittances and software services income could pare the gains in FY'21.
The current account the aggregate of country's exports and imports of goods and services ended in a marginal surplus of $ 0.6 billion or 0.1 per cent of GDP in Q4- January-March of 2019-20 as against a deficit of $ 4.6 billion or 0.7 per cent of GDP in Q4 of 2018-19, according to the preliminary numbers released by the Reserve Bank of India . The last the current account had ended in a surplus in any quarter was in January-March'2007, during which it had ended in a surplus of 4.2 billion.
Contrary to popular perception, the deficit in the crude and product import deficit was higher by 9 per cent during the quarter. But a 9 per cent rise in software services income to $21.1 billion and an 14 per cent rise in inward remittances to $ 18.6 billion, helped the current account end in a marginal surplus.
"In Q4 of 2019-20 was primarily on account of a marginally lower trade deficit at $ 35.0 billion ($35.2 billion) and a sharp rise-16 per cent- in net invisible receipts at US$ 35.6 billion ($30.6 billion)" RBI said in a release.
" We don’t think C/A surplus is guaranteed" said Anubhuti Sahay, chief India economist at Standard Chartered Bank. "We have a forecast of -0.4% of GDP- as remittances and software exports are likely to be adversely impacted on lower crude oil prices and recession in the US and Europe".
For the entire fiscal 2019-20m the current account deficit narrowed to 0.9 per cent of GDP in 2019-20 from 2.1 per cent in 2018-19 on the back of the trade deficit which shrank to US$ 157.5 billion, RBI said. 2019-20 from US$ 180.3 billion in 2018-19. The overall balance of payments ended in a surplus of $59.5 billion compared to a deficit of $3.3 billion in 2018-19.
"FY'21 Bop surplus is likely to be in strong double digit surplus on one-off narrowing in Current account deficit ( with a risk of slipping in marginal surplus) and robust FDI inflows" said Sahay.