Indian Economy : News,Discussions & Updates

Food Subsidies & Social Welfare in India

It is puzzling and perplexing to watch Rahul Gandhi shout needlessly on behalf of the middle class. Tomorrow, he will be making noise on behalf of the poor. These outcries are political and far from the truth.

Over the past 20 years, including the Dr. Manmohan Singh era, both the poor and the middle class have been well taken care of. Let's first review India’s extensive welfare system, details of which are rarely highlighted in the media. Although this system was designed for the poor, the middle class has significantly benefited from it.

Under the National Food Security Act, the government spends $24 billion annually (Rs 2 trillion) on subsidized grain. Beneficiaries include 75% of the rural population and 50% of the urban population, which encompasses a substantial number of middle-class individuals. During the pandemic, the government spent $47 billion over three years (2020-23) on subsidized grain, with the middle class being significant beneficiaries.

The Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, another substantial welfare program, sees the government spending about $11 billion to guarantee minimum wages to the rural unemployed. Here, the middle class is not the beneficiary.

With India's poverty rate now below 10%, the middle class has risen to 41% from 14% in 2005. This marks a substantial increase in the urban class population. Although poverty has not been eradicated, it is rapidly declining.

The McKinsey Global Institute, which defines India’s middle class as households with real annual disposable incomes between 200,000 and 1 million rupees ($3,606 to $18,031), estimates that the middle class has grown from 50 million in 2005 to over 250 million in 2015. By 2025, it is projected to more than double to 583 million—41 percent of the population. Hence Middle Class has progressed well.

With increasing national prosperity, politicians often push for more funds for their own agendas. Examples abound: farmers agitating for higher produce prices despite significant agricultural subsidies, the defense sector seeking unlimited cash for modern acquisitions, Andhra Pradesh requesting substantial funds to complete the new capital city at Amravati, Bihar pleading for more funds due to decades of mismanagement, and the ongoing need for ignored modernizing infrastructure like roads, rail, ports, and airports to remain competitive are a higher priority. Also when government cash boxes are opened for greater spending, politicians often seek to line their pockets with government cash, and the Congress Party is no stranger to it. Hence government spending should be kept in a low profile.

In the above financial equation, when you account for interest payments on national debt, salaries and pensions of government employees, healthcare subsidies, housing and other welfare schemes, and transfer payments to states and union territories, there is not much left to further support the 600 million middle class. Their hard work has already made them prosperous, and they benefit from many government schemes, so they are relatively well off.

If Rahul Gandhi truly understands what he's saying, he should be less vocal about pleas on behalf of the middle class, which appears to be a tactic to garner urban votes.
 
ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel's Hazira plant will be one of the largest in the world.

ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India's Hazira expansion aims to augment self reliance in steel supply | Autocar Professional

Current capacity of this plant is 9 million tons per annum (MTPA), which is being increased to 15 MTPA by 2026 & up to 24 MTPA by 2029. The company will need to spend $20 billion for this expansion.

Some recent photos of the expansion work going on:
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24 MMTPA under one roof is a huge capacity. This factory alone would produce more steel than the whole of Italy (11th largest steel producer in the world).

Surat has in the last decade has built up an incredible industrial capacity. Surat now has some of India's densest concentration of heavy industries. L&T does much of the heavy lifting. From power plant steam & oil turbines to nuclear reactor forgings to coke drums for petrochemicals, from shipbuilding to defense manufacturing.

The only this that worries me is Surat's relative proximity to Pakistan.
 
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253788% —that’s no typo, it’s how much India’s petroleum exports to Europe have risen since 2018

In terms of value, India’s petroleum exports to key European markets saw 250% growth. It was driven first by pandemic-related factors, and then the war in Ukraine.

By Pia Krishnankutty
02 September 2024 07:30 am IST
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New Delhi: The volume of India’s petroleum exports to key European markets rose by a staggering 2,53,788 percent between 2018-2019 and 2023-2024, driven up first because of pandemic-induced logistical factors, and then sustained at very high levels following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.

In terms of value, the growth of India’s petroleum exports to these countries was comparatively moderate but still a steep 250 percent.

An analysis by ThePrint of trade data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry showed that about 15 to 17 European countries featured among the top 100 countries that India exported petroleum products to every year.

These countries—among which the Netherlands tops the list—imported a total of 9,740.51 metric tonnes (MT) of petroleum products in 2018-2019, which jumped to a whopping 24.73 million MT in 2023-2024.

This translated to $5.9 billion worth of imports from India in 2018-2019, which grew to $20.5 billion in 2023-2024—a nearly 250 percent increase. The reason for the value not growing as much as the volume is that the pandemic saw oil prices plummet.

The Netherlands emerged as the top export destination within this group because it is home to the Rotterdam Port, the largest seaport in Europe, which functions as a hub for other key markets in the region.

Other countries on the list included the UK, France, Romania, Switzerland, Russia, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Norway, Poland, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Greece, Ukraine, Germany and Portugal. Finland was another key market, though over the six years, the size of its imports of Indian petroleum products has varied.

In FY24, these countries, together with the Netherlands, figured in the top 100 export destinations for Indian petroleum products. The top 100 list accounted for over 90 percent of India’s total exports of this commodity to the world.

The logistics behind the pandemic spike

According to Federation of Indian Export Organizations (FIEO) director-general and CEO Ajay Sahai, the surge in petroleum exports to European countries during the pandemic year of 2020-2021 was due to the over-supply of oil that year after demand cratered as countries locked down.

“Ports in countries like the Netherlands were offering vast storage capacities at low prices when global transit and logistics issues were at their height,” Sahai explained. “It’s possible that during that time, foreign oil companies changed their base (from other locations) and, therefore, parked their imports there (European countries).”

In other words, companies located in places like Singapore that were importing petroleum products from India could have relocated their operations to European countries, and, so, India’s exports would have been channeled to those countries instead.

Therefore, he said, this jump in petroleum exports to Europe shouldn’t be seen as a rise in demand for or consumption of Indian petroleum, but “a redistribution” of existing global petroleum supplies.

A top industry leader working in an Indian petrochemical company further explained that another reason for the jump in 2020-21 was that European refiners were not functioning during COVID-19, while Indian refiners were working “full steam ahead”.

“Indian refiners were buying cheap crude during the pandemic and selling the byproducts—mostly diesel—at a rampant pace,” the industry leader said on condition of anonymity. “During COVID-19, there was less Indian demand for diesel because railways and trucks were not operational. But the Indian population still needed LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) and petrol to run their households and cars.”

“Therefore, Indian refiners had to continually evacuate their storage of diesel in order to keep cracking crude for petrol and other products,” he added.

Europe ‘caught napping’ by sanctions on Russia

The pandemic-induced factors continued to play out over 2021-22 as well, leading to high exports of Indian petroleum products to European countries.

Thereafter, however, the major driver of this growth was geopolitics. With the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the resultant sanctions laid on it by the US and other Western countries, not only did the price of oil start to rocket upward, but European countries also began looking for alternative sources for their oil and petroleum needs.

India, which continues to import large amounts of discounted Russian oil, has become the leading exporter of refined fuels to Europe. In 2021-2022, these European countries, including some outliers like Croatia, collectively imported $8.8 billion or 12.7 million MT of Indian petroleum products.

In a single year, by the end of 2022-2023, the volume of India’s exports of these products to Europe jumped to nearly 17 million MT, and the value almost doubled to $16.3 billion.

Indian private refiners Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) and Nayara Energy, backed by Russia-stated own firm Rosneft, now control over a quarter of India’s bulk diesel market.

“As long as the embargo on Russian oil continues, these exports from India to European countries will only grow,” Biswajit Dhar, trade economist and distinguished professor at the Council for Social Development (CSD), told ThePrint.

“It’s clear the Europeans were caught napping by the enforcement of the US-led sanctions. The Americans managed to decouple themselves from the Russians and the Gulf countries to an extent and solved their own problems through fracking and whatnot. But the Europeans have endured the brunt of the sanctions on Russia,” he added.

Last May, German Ambassador to India Philipp Ackermann said Berlin has “no problem” with receiving refined oil from India. Months later, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said he’s “waiting for a thank you” from Europe after India’s policies helped “stabilize” global oil and gas markets.

Indeed, Europe’s imports of Indian petroleum products have continued to grow strongly. For instance, the 2023-2024 figures were a 46 percent jump in volume and a 26 percent increase in value from the previous year.

(Edited by Sanya Mathur)

253788% —that's no typo, it's how much India's petroleum exports to Europe have risen since 2018
 
ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel's Hazira plant will be one of the largest in the world.

ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India's Hazira expansion aims to augment self reliance in steel supply | Autocar Professional

Current capacity of this plant is 9 million tons per annum (MTPA), which is being increased to 15 MTPA by 2026 & up to 24 MTPA by 2029. The company will need to spend $20 billion for this expansion.

Some recent photos of the expansion work going on:
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24 MMTPA under one roof is a huge capacity. This factory alone would produce more steel than the whole of Italy (11th largest steel producer in the world).

Surat has in the last decade has built up an incredible industrial capacity. Surat now has some of India's densest concentration of heavy industries. L&T does much of the heavy lifting. From power plant steam & oil turbines to nuclear reactor forgings to coke drums for petrochemicals, from shipbuilding to defense manufacturing.

The only this that worries me is Surat's relative proximity to Pakistan.
steel plants will be located near the ore mine to minimize transport cost. dont think you can have factory elsewhere.

More than pakistan you should be worried abt steel prices due to dumping from china. Normal steel used in residential construction or vehicle manufacture is in excess in current market. There is nothing much this plant will add value to the existing market as they will not lower the price. It would have been great if we could get high grade steel used in nuclear industry, ship building or chemical plants manufactured here.
 
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steel plants will be located near the ore mine to minimize transport cost. dont think you can have factory elsewhere.
Agreed. Just hope these important cities are well defended from new gen threats like kamikaze drones.
More than pakistan you should be worried abt steel prices due to dumping from china. Normal steel used in residential construction or vehicle manufacture is in excess in current market. There is nothing much this plant will add value to the existing market as they will not lower the price.
China dumping stuff is hardly news.

If there were no differentiators between Indian & Chinese crude steel beyond price, then our own production capacity would have gone down. Instead in the last 10 years India's steel production has gone from 87 MMTPA to 140 MMPTA.
It would have been great if we could get high grade steel used in nuclear industry, ship building or chemical plants manufactured here.
We do actually. Specialty steel is not produced in India in quantities we consume, but we still do produce good amounts of it. The ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel Hazira plant discussed here is producing automobile grade steel.

SAIL's Rourkela plant produces DMR-249A warship grade steel. SAIL's Bhilai plant produces various grades of Maraging steels for making solid fueled rocket motor casings. MIDHANI-Hyderabad produces nuclear grade steel & also high nitrogen steel for military armoring applications.

We do not make any tool grade steels yet. We import those, mostly from Japan. We also do not make much of medical & food grade steel. We import those from Europe, from mostly from TATA steel Europe. Oh the irony.
 
Cabinet Approves $1.3 Billion Outlay For 'India AI Mission'

The Union Cabinet on Thursday approved the 'India AI mission' with an outlay of Rs 10,371.92 crore for a period of five years, to give a further push for Artificial Intelligence in India. The announcement was made by Union Minister Piyush Goyal at a cabinet briefing, where he reiterated the need to have a robust environment for promoting the tech in the country.

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"The IndiaAI mission will establish a comprehensive ecosystem catalyzing AI innovation through strategic programs and partnerships across the public and private sectors. By democratizing computing access, improving data quality, developing indigenous AI capabilities, attracting top AI talent, enabling industry collaboration, providing startup risk capital, ensuring socially impactful AI projects and bolstering ethical AI, it will drive responsible, inclusive growth of India's AI ecosystem," the government said in a release.

All set to be implemented by the ‘IndiaAI’ Independent Business Division (IBD) under Digital India Corporation (DIC), this mission is set to have eight components including IndiaAI Compute Capacity, IndiaAI Innovation Centre, a dataset platform among others. The government also plans to generate highly skilled employment opportunities with this mission.

As part of building a mega computing facility, the government aims to add AI compute infrastructure of 10,000 or more Graphics Processing Units (GPUs), built through public-private partnership. "Further, an AI marketplace will be designed to offer AI as a service and pre-trained models to AI innovators. It will act as a one-stop solution for resources critical for AI innovation," the government said.

Moreover, the innovation centres will undertake the development and deployment of indigenous Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) and domain-specific foundational models in critical sectors.

As for education in AI, the government plans to roll out IndiaAI FutureSkills, which is conceptualized to mitigate barriers to entry into AI programs and will increase AI courses in undergraduate, masters-level, and Ph.D. programs. Under the mission, the government will also set up Data and AI Labs in Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities across India.


Seems the cost for buying compute time on the cloud is going to get a lot cheaper for Indian AI startups.
Global giants take AIm at India’s GPU ambition
Synopsis

Nvidia, Intel, Advanced Micro Devices, Qualcomm, Microsoft Azure, Amazon Web Services, Google Cloud and Palo Alto Networks were among participants of a pre-bid meeting conducted by the government for its Rs 10,000-crore GPU procurement tender. The ministry of electronics and information technology (MeitY) said the companies' participation was “exceptional”.

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Read more at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/technology/global-giants-take-aim-at-indias-gpu-ambition/articleshow/112933231.cms




Firms scramble to build consortiums to be eligible for Rs 10,000-crore GPU plan

Synopsis

Small and medium companies are racing to form partnerships with peers and cloud service providers to become eligible for the massive Rs 10,000 crore graphics processing units (GPUs) tender by the government. As per the GPU procurement tender, central to India’s Artificial Intelligence Mission, the bidder must have installed or placed a purchase order for a minimum 1,000 GPUs.

Firms scramble to build consortiums to be eligible for Rs 10,000-crore GPU plan
 
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