Indian Economy : News,Discussions & Updates

Here is something interesting "Haldiram" from Other Forum. posted on the current slowdown and multiple IT raids :

"When news of IT raids, property attachment, scams, scandals keeps flowing, it's a strong sign that the correction is going to last for a while. The gormint times these extreme moves in an ongoing correction so that it has minimal impact on the markets. Behti Ganga me haath dhona. They don't care about its impact on the overall sentiment because they have an inkling that the negativity is scheduled to last for another few months. That's why they dug up the ILFS, DHFL, PC Jewellers, Mallya, and other NBFC scams all in one go during October when the first round of China-US tariff war began.

Now, they are digging up other stuff after the second round of tariff war. In the peak of the bull run, more and more IPOs are launched, that's a good sign that the markets are flush with over-optimism. In the peak of a bear market, all the scams and bad issues are dug out. CEO's resign (Ashok Leyland), run away (Mallya), or die (CCD). Companies are merged (SBI-Vijaya), bankrupcies are declared, assets are auctioned.

These voluntary actions were timed by the gormint to coincide with the international trade war so that these events need not cause separate crashes at a later time once the economy is healed. The US hit us with a trade war in 2018 and we used the resulting crash to start fixing our own problems. This is like vinash kale sadh-buddhi"

What are your views guys ?
 
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Gautam said:
Here is something interesting "Haldiram" from Other Forum. posted on the current slowdown and multiple IT raids :

"When news of IT raids, property attachment, scams, scandals keeps flowing, it's a strong sign that the correction is going to last for a while. The gormint times these extreme moves in an ongoing correction so that it has minimal impact on the markets. Behti Ganga me haath dhona. They don't care about its impact on the overall sentiment because they have an inkling that the negativity is scheduled to last for another few months. That's why they dug up the ILFS, DHFL, PC Jewellers, Mallya, and other NBFC scams all in one go during October when the first round of China-US tariff war began.

Now, they are digging up other stuff after the second round of tariff war. In the peak of the bull run, more and more IPOs are launched, that's a good sign that the markets are flush with over-optimism. In the peak of a bear market, all the scams and bad issues are dug out. CEO's resign (Ashok Leyland), run away (Mallya), or die (CCD). Companies are merged (SBI-Vijaya), bankrupcies are declared, assets are auctioned.

These voluntary actions were timed by the gormint to coincide with the international trade war so that these events need not cause separate crashes at a later time once the economy is healed. The US hit us with a trade war in 2018 and we used the resulting crash to start fixing our own problems. This is like vinash kale sadh-buddhi"

What are your views guys ?
Click to expand...

2 things.

1.The seeds of the current NPA banking crisis and consequent liquidity crunch were sown in the aftermath of 2008 global crash when to stimulate the economy, banks were encouraged to recklessly lend money to anyone who asks for it.Corrupt CEOs like Chanda Kochar and Shikha Sharma also didnt help.If you remember, we rode the 2008 global crash better than most.It turns out we merely postponed it and probably made it worse .

2.In midst of this stress on the economy, gormint(read Subhash Garg) decided to go ahead with socialist plans like taxing dividend gains in addition to introducing LTCG tax last year and some bizzare announcements like proposing to limit promoter shareholding to 65%( bizzare is the timing of this announcement when economy is still reeling from NPA And NBFC crisis) which lead to flight of foreign institutional investors from indian markets.If gormint entities like LIC hadnt stepped in to fill the breach, the stock market fall would have been much more drastic.Garg ultimately paid for this with his job.

So gormint is not that smart afterall.
 
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Pre Warning - Avoid using cheap language and posting flamebaits that can further reduce quality of conversation.
_Anonymous_ said:
Livemint (@livemint) Tweeted:
BSNL has 1.76 lakh employees across India while MTNL has around 22,000 employees

BSNL, MTNL fail to pay July salary to 1.98 lakh employees (
https://twitter.com/x/status/1156920082397712384
)
Click to expand...
Compare it with JIO, Airtel and Voda-Idea combined which all have around 25000 employees each and all earning more than MTNL/BSNL combined. 198000 parasites sucking tax payers money. Go to any BSNL office and enquire about services they're unaware of offers and least bothered of Customers and linesman ready to fleece. It's better to get rid of such unprofitable companies.
 
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Gautam said:
Here is something interesting "Haldiram" from Other Forum. posted on the current slowdown and multiple IT raids :

"When news of IT raids, property attachment, scams, scandals keeps flowing, it's a strong sign that the correction is going to last for a while. The gormint times these extreme moves in an ongoing correction so that it has minimal impact on the markets. Behti Ganga me haath dhona. They don't care about its impact on the overall sentiment because they have an inkling that the negativity is scheduled to last for another few months. That's why they dug up the ILFS, DHFL, PC Jewellers, Mallya, and other NBFC scams all in one go during October when the first round of China-US tariff war began.

Now, they are digging up other stuff after the second round of tariff war. In the peak of the bull run, more and more IPOs are launched, that's a good sign that the markets are flush with over-optimism. In the peak of a bear market, all the scams and bad issues are dug out. CEO's resign (Ashok Leyland), run away (Mallya), or die (CCD). Companies are merged (SBI-Vijaya), bankrupcies are declared, assets are auctioned.

These voluntary actions were timed by the gormint to coincide with the international trade war so that these events need not cause separate crashes at a later time once the economy is healed. The US hit us with a trade war in 2018 and we used the resulting crash to start fixing our own problems. This is like vinash kale sadh-buddhi"

What are your views guys ?
Click to expand...
Two years of bumper gains in Mid cap and small cap would follow with 4 years of pain, by 2021, there will be another major bull market to coverup all the pain sustained. If you look at the markets, i do not think that that it's that bad.
most mid-caps and small caps had unrealistic valuations in 17-18 period, it was ought to come back to 15-16 levels, @suryakiran (with NBFC's and PSU Banks being an exception due to it's gross NPA and poor regulations)

But if you look at Midcap - Pharma, IT, Realestate, FMCG, most are returning to both their 2016-15 earnings as well as similar PE multiples. Al the market needs to do is shed a bit of fat on the large caps where still some stocks are at unrealistic PE multiples. Once those are dragged down and the market valuations look realistic, i think the next cycle of investments will begin. Till then "aal is well"
 
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_Anonymous_ said:
EconomicTimes (@EconomicTimes) Tweeted:
This debt of Rs 3,537 crore is over the Rs 6,547 crore Coffee Day Enterprises had Holding companies of VG Siddhartha had Rs 3,500cr debt (
https://twitter.com/x/status/1156897368526249986
)
Click to expand...
I don't think debt has much to do with this,

Anil Bhai's reliance capital has debt of 46500cr, with debt to equity ratio of a whopping 6.79, he is neither fleeing nor jumping into a river, and hats off to him he is still in the game, and to add to that servicing a whopping 35000cr last year. There are a lot of companies out there with much grimmer balance sheets who are walking it off. There might be more to this than meets the eye.
 
Gautam said:
Here is something interesting "Haldiram" from Other Forum. posted on the current slowdown and multiple IT raids :

"When news of IT raids, property attachment, scams, scandals keeps flowing, it's a strong sign that the correction is going to last for a while. The gormint times these extreme moves in an ongoing correction so that it has minimal impact on the markets. Behti Ganga me haath dhona. They don't care about its impact on the overall sentiment because they have an inkling that the negativity is scheduled to last for another few months. That's why they dug up the ILFS, DHFL, PC Jewellers, Mallya, and other NBFC scams all in one go during October when the first round of China-US tariff war began.

Now, they are digging up other stuff after the second round of tariff war. In the peak of the bull run, more and more IPOs are launched, that's a good sign that the markets are flush with over-optimism. In the peak of a bear market, all the scams and bad issues are dug out. CEO's resign (Ashok Leyland), run away (Mallya), or die (CCD). Companies are merged (SBI-Vijaya), bankrupcies are declared, assets are auctioned.

These voluntary actions were timed by the gormint to coincide with the international trade war so that these events need not cause separate crashes at a later time once the economy is healed. The US hit us with a trade war in 2018 and we used the resulting crash to start fixing our own problems. This is like vinash kale sadh-buddhi"

What are your views guys ?
Click to expand...
Well interesting take but looks like typical gossip you hear in market, theories after theories about demonetization and on other topics people fail to understand.
 
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Milspec said:
Two years of bumper gains in Mid cap and small cap would follow with 4 years of pain, by 2021, there will be another major bull market to coverup all the pain sustained. If you look at the markets, i do not think that that it's that bad.
most mid-caps and small caps had unrealistic valuations in 17-18 period, it was ought to come back to 15-16 levels, @suryakiran (with NBFC's and PSU Banks being an exception due to it's gross NPA and poor regulations)

But if you look at Midcap - Pharma, IT, Realestate, FMCG, most are returning to both their 2016-15 earnings as well as similar PE multiples. Al the market needs to do is shed a bit of fat on the large caps where still some stocks are at unrealistic PE multiples. Once those are dragged down and the market valuations look realistic, i think the next cycle of investments will begin. Till then "aal is well"
Click to expand...

Possibly 2 more quarters of pain.
 
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Milspec said:
I don't think debt has much to do with this,

Anil Bhai's reliance capital has debt of 46500cr, with debt to equity ratio of a whopping 6.79, he is neither fleeing nor jumping into a river, and hats off to him he is still in the game, and to add to that servicing a whopping 35000cr last year. There are a lot of companies out there with much grimmer balance sheets who are walking it off. There might be more to this than meets the eye.
Click to expand...
I didn't receive your tag. But all thanks to @Ashwin for the system architecture & @randomradio for Anil bhai's drop in fortunes. Of course, if corruption is hinted at all bets are off as per randomradio.
 
suryakiran said:
Possibly 2 more quarters of pain.
Click to expand...

Longer. Much longer. Earnings for most firms are flat if not negative. The entirety of Nifty 50 rally this year was on the backs of 3-4 stocks. The PE multiples for large caps are crazy at 28-29, unsustainable without a dramatic earnings upgrade for the large caps stocks,15 especially given that PE for mid caps have corrected over the past year to 30-35 from 48-52.

The reason the large caps were spared the correction for so long is that there really are no other alternatives left for reasonable returns in India, forcing a supply led rally where too much money is chasing too few stocks. But valuation must at the end of the day tally with fundamentals and expectations. As such a correction is inevitable unless firms are able to recover and post strong earnings growth, in itself a bleak scenario given the weakness in overall demand.
 
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Gautam said:
Here is something interesting "Haldiram" from Other Forum. posted on the current slowdown and multiple IT raids :

"When news of IT raids, property attachment, scams, scandals keeps flowing, it's a strong sign that the correction is going to last for a while. The gormint times these extreme moves in an ongoing correction so that it has minimal impact on the markets. Behti Ganga me haath dhona. They don't care about its impact on the overall sentiment because they have an inkling that the negativity is scheduled to last for another few months. That's why they dug up the ILFS, DHFL, PC Jewellers, Mallya, and other NBFC scams all in one go during October when the first round of China-US tariff war began.

Now, they are digging up other stuff after the second round of tariff war. In the peak of the bull run, more and more IPOs are launched, that's a good sign that the markets are flush with over-optimism. In the peak of a bear market, all the scams and bad issues are dug out. CEO's resign (Ashok Leyland), run away (Mallya), or die (CCD). Companies are merged (SBI-Vijaya), bankrupcies are declared, assets are auctioned.

These voluntary actions were timed by the gormint to coincide with the international trade war so that these events need not cause separate crashes at a later time once the economy is healed. The US hit us with a trade war in 2018 and we used the resulting crash to start fixing our own problems. This is like vinash kale sadh-buddhi"

What are your views guys ?
Click to expand...
Hardcore RW bunch has rare coping mechanism inbuilt. They will invent random causation and mix it with voodoo economics to fill a narrative. We saw this phenomena during demonatisation.
 
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