Biggest worry, especially considering how much more cost efficient it's becoming to mass produce these IRBMs/MRBMs lately.
China has the capability to produce IRBMs/MRBMs at scale. Pakistan? I have some doubts.
Countries that can make IRBMs/MRBMs can also convert these missiles into satellite launch vehicles. Take for example Iran, Israel, North Korea etc. Pakistani BMs will at least give them small satellite launch capability similar to ISRO's SLVs. Pakistan currently has no satellite launch capabilities. So, why not convert the BMs to an sat launcher? Having independent sat launch capability is after all a strategic capability.
They will need to make minimal changes to the design of their BMs. Payload bus might need significant re-work. But it is their own design, right? Shouldn't be a big deal then. Yet they don't do it. Decades have gone by since Pakistan has acquired MRBMs, still no attempt is made in that direction.
There is only one conclusion that one can draw from this. They have no design control over their BMs.
Production capability is also a suspect. A decade back every time we tested a missile, Pakistan also tested a missile. We test an IRBM/ICBM, Pakistan has to test a MRBM. We test a cruise missile, Pakistan has to test a cruise missile. Sometimes they would test a BM in response to ISRO launching a PSLV. Silly as it maybe, but this was their way of drawing a parity with us.
You don't see them do this anymore. What was the Pakistani response to the recent A5 test? Press conferences?
I was under the impression that the ABM capabilities of the S400s were limited. That was the reason for S500 development?
Yes, S400s are limited to endo-atmospheric interceptions. Still, they can be used for bolstering AD capabilities.
I am aware that India has a BMD program I'm just not entirely sure how prepared it is. I know they've tested satellite interceptions and the PAD has had tests done in the past and the swordfish radar for target tracking but.. like what early warning mechanisms are available? AAD and more modern interceptors are still listed as in development, what's the timeframe for induction and in the meantime could we say there are 100+ PAD to intercept incoming ballistic missiles?
You have mixed a few things up. Let me simplify. BMD program has 2 phases:
1. Phase 1: For intercepting IRBMs with up to 3000 KM range.
2. Phase 2: For intercepting ICBMs with ranges of 5000+ KM.
Phase 1 is complete. There are at least 2 known bases where they have been deployed. One facing China, one facing Pakistan. There is another base coming up around Bangalore for AD cover around central India. There might be another AD base near Thanjavur AFS in the future.
Phase 1 will use 2 missiles. PDV missile for exo-atmospheric interceptions & AAD missile for endo-atmospheric interceptions. PDV is an evolved version of the PAD. PAD never entered service.
PDV Mk-2 is the missile that shot down a satellite. That missile is also expected to be deployed as a ground based mid-course interceptor for ICBMs.
Phase 2 will have 2 missiles. AD-1 against endo-atmospheric & low exo-atmospheric targets. AD-2 against exo-atmospheric targets. AD-1 has been tested one. AD-2 has seen no flight yet.
As for sat based early warning we have:
1. CARTOSAT family for high resolution visible spectrum imagery.
2. GISAT family for quick reaction IR imagery for detecting missile launches.
3. RISAT family for high resolution radar imagery.
4. EMISAT family for EM emission surveillance.
5. HySIS family for high resolution hyperspectral imagery. Seeing through tree cover in forested regions.
6. INSAT & GSAT families for military comms.
This is not an exhaustive list. But you get the picture. We have sats in almost every area. But we don't have enough of anything. We need numbers.
I get that the details are probably scant due to national security but some details available on deployment. Similar to the SM and Arrow series, we don't know the exact number but know the costs the contributions towards purchases over the years.
Numbers are hard got come by. There was a poster showing the many vehicles that will be deployed in a squadron. Since we know the number of missiles per launcher maybe we can work something out. Let me see if I can find it.
Just need to produce more and ensure that the lines are ready to backfill at a moment's notice I suppose.
There is thinking in the MoD that if we a lot of the current hardware (missiles, ships etc.) then by the time the last of this gen goes into service. The new gen hardware will come around and render the current gen obsolete. When the next gen hardware comes around, we will use this same line of thinking and not buy too many of those either.
Perpetual crab mentality.
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