Indian Political Discussion

[vstol Jockey]

I have some news. BJP did have majority today but decided to play the anti chess. Those who know what is anti chess will know what it is about. This allows all those MLAs who supported BJP and are opposed to this Congress+JDS alliance to play martyr. This gives them a political new life as the people who followed their conscience instead of being sold as goats. It seems that even Congress+JDS may not be able to prove majority.
It may be a very short lived happiness for entire opposition in India. Brahm buddhi ko koi bhi defeat nahin kar sakta. This game was played out today in RSS office in Jhandewalan in Delhi. Yeddy has resigned as part of that big game.
Many congress and JDS MLAs who support BJP did not want to be seen as having been sold out to maintain high moral ground. So this anti chess is being played.

 

[dray]

Karnataka election has sent a clear message to the regional parties that Congress is ready to submit to any demand of the regional parties including allowing them to lead the government and have the Prime Minister's post to keep BJP away from power. Now regional parties won't go for any pre-poll alliance with Congress, rather they will try to win as many seats possible on their own and go for post-poll alliance, because that will give them much greater leverage in bargaining....many of the regional leaders have strong desire for the PM post, and post-poll bargaining with Congress when Congress is desperate is their best opportunity. This will help BJP in the 2019 election, as the opposition vote will get divided. Besides, there will be scope for some shopping in case BJP's numbers fall a bit short.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Karnataka election has sent a clear message to the regional parties that Congress is ready to submit to any demand of the regional parties including allowing them to lead the government and have the Prime Minister's post to keep BJP away from power. Now regional parties won't go for any pre-poll alliance with Congress, rather they will try to win as many seats possible on their own and go for post-poll alliance, because that will give them much greater leverage in bargaining....many of the regional leaders have strong desire for the PM post, and post-poll bargaining with Congress when Congress is desperate is their best opportunity. This will help BJP in the 2019 election, as the opposition vote will get divided. Besides, there will be scope for some shopping in case BJP's numbers fall a bit short.

This can be read the other way too . The Congress will be more open to pre poll alliances . There is just one problem .In States where the regional outfits are strong the Congress has a negligible to meagre presence ( viz Bihar , UP , WB , TN , TG & AP - to some extent with the only exception being Maharashtra ) & the states where the Congress has a strong presence , the regional parties are non existent ( viz Gujarat , Rajasthan , CG , MP , UK , Haryana - the only exceptions being Delhi , Kerala , Punjab & Karnataka ). In the latter it's a straight fight with the BJP with the exceptions noted as above .

This isn't a done deal by any stretch of imagination.

 

[dray]

This can be read the other way too . The Congress will be more open to pre poll alliances . There is just one problem .In States where the regional outfits are strong the Congress has a negligible to meagre presence ( viz Bihar , UP , WB , TN , TG & AP - to some extent with the only exception being Maharashtra ) & the states where the Congress has a strong presence , the regional parties are non existent ( viz Gujarat , Rajasthan , CG , MP , UK , Haryana - the only exceptions being Delhi , Kerala , Punjab & Karnataka ). In the latter it's a straight fight with the BJP with the exceptions noted as above .

This isn't a done deal by any stretch of imagination.

Think from the POV of regional parties, pre-poll alliance means far less scope of bargaining, especially when even the PM post is up for bargaining.

 

[RATHORE]

If DK Sivakumar is made Dep CM, both CM & Dy CM seats will be with Vokkaligas. This will upset 20 odd Lingayat MLAs of Congress+JDS and if DK Sivakumar is not made Dy CM, he will cross over with his 11 MLAs. The game has just started. What you saw till now was just the initial rushes of this second most educated state of India. Karnataka ka natak ab shuroo hua hai.

Exactly, plus, those who voted for Siddaramaiah (especially backward castes) won't be happy at all with having 2 Vokkaliga leaders & with what Congress did to him.

I don't even know how they plan to pass the floor test honestly.

 

[_Anonymous_]

Think from the POV of regional parties, pre-poll alliance means far less scope of bargaining, especially when even the PM post is up for bargaining.

Think of it as another way to bring pressure on the Congress thereby negating the need for a PM from the Congress should such a third front + Congress pre poll tie up materialise . The Congress will not be unaware of such a possibility and will play their cards accordingly . .
I think the notion of a united front is being put forward is solely on account of the regional parties preying on Congress's insecurities of losing its position as a national party given their near obliteration throughout the nation in the various states. I believe the worst is past for the Congress. They will have some benefits in the year end state polls which in turn would dash the hopes of a united front across all states being restricted to the ones where the Congress has negligible presence . But in such states what benefit will the Congress bring to its regional allies ?

The picture will become clearer after the polls in CG , MP & Rajasthan towards the end of the year .

 

[RISING SUN]

Amid Karnataka chaos, Modi is shaping a master stroke for 2019 Lok Sabha polls
While the nation is busy watching the political drama in Karnataka, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is focused on shaping a move that can help him bag 2019 — simultaneous elections for state assemblies and the Lok Sabha. Away from the public gaze, various organs of the government are in an overdrive to prepare ground for simultaneous polls.

In a meeting called to discuss concerns around the issue of simultaneous polls on Wednesday, the Law Commission has sought to know from the Election Commission why a single and common electoral roll could not be created for elections to local bodies, state assemblies and the Lok Sabha, according to an ET report. ET has learnt that there has also been a nudge from the PMO on the subject

The idea to hold simultaneous Lok Sabha and state assembly polls had been slowly gaining weight but now it seems the government is actively pursuing it. An elaborate exercise had been carried out by various quarters of the government, including the NITI Aayog and law ministry, to explore all possible options to move towards simultaneous elections, which the government believes would help reduce the cost and work required in the process to elect the governments.

Veteran Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader LK Advani had mooted the idea more than a decade ago. It went to Parliamentary standing committee during the first term of the UPA. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has revived the idea. Addressing BJP office-bearers and state unit chiefs in March 2016, Modi called for simultaneous elections to the Lok Sabha, state assemblies and even the panchayat bodies. Since then, the government has considered several ways to implement it.

In a report in March, Tokyo-based global financial services firm Nomura said the next Lok Sabha elections could happen earlier than scheduled. Nomura assigned a 25 per cent probability that the Lok Sabha polls are held in the last quarter of the 2017-18 instead of May 2019 when the term of the present Lok Sabha ends.

The advancing of Lok Sabha elections will make them coincide with state elections in Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. Nomura said this could give the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) an advantage. It would be easier for the BJP to campaign and it could beat anti-incumbency in states.

Often in state elections, regional and local issues matter more than national issues. The BJP is seen to be facing strong anti-incumbency these states. But if the elections coincide, the Lok Sabha campaign of the BJP can influence voting in the state elections too.
Amid Karnataka chaos, Modi is shaping a master stroke for 2019 Lok Sabha polls

 

[Ashwin]

They were first year, second semester students, so around 18 and first time voters this year or next. Conversations brought the same answers, so striking that I made videos on my phone. Each said she would vote for BJP, “but only because of Modi”. Why? Because Swachh Bharat has worked, even my village is 75 per cent clean, we are becoming Digital India, he has improved India’s image globally and, most importantly that “corruption has been destroyed”. Now there is no point arguing because they believe it as ‘the’ truth. What do they think of Rahul Gandhi? “Must be a good man, but I don’t really know.” So, it isn’t as if I love Modi and detest Rahul, I only know Modi as a leader. And his is the only message I have heard.
I had written after the 2014 elections that this is the young new non-ideological, I-don’t-owe-you-nothing India. It has no nostalgia for dynasties, whatever their sacrifices. In those minds now, Modi is the only leader. They know no other. Conversations across Karnataka, Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh affirm this pan-national phenomenon. The grown-ups are still polarised and mostly haven’t shifted old loyalties. That’s why Modi’s opponents still get large numbers of votes. But the young, are now a different electoral demographic. There will be 14 crore of them voting next year. There will be divisions but their devotion is largely now to a new monotheism: Modi-ism.
How did Modi get here? He has perfected a new kind of messaging where he prescribes for you good things: cleanliness, honesty, education, use of technology but places the onus on you to do it for yourself and not set targets for himself you can judge him against. So you have to clean up, use digital cash, learn to use smartphones. He stays silent on any setback. He won’t speak on Kathua but later speak generally about the need to protect our “betis” and reform the “betas.” He won’t speak on Una (Gujarat) but later say, in deep anguish, kill me, but not my Dalit brothers. This distances him from bad news. He is never on a defensive ground. His is forever the moral high ground.
Rather than be held accountable, he is creating a cult around himself. Even on demonetisation, a decision as disastrous and irrational as Mao’s war on China’s sparrows, his message has simply been: I know this caused you pain, but aren’t you willing to suffer a little to make India a better country? It’s like the biblical logic of how your suffering shows there is God and you need Him. For sure, everyone doesn’t buy this. But enough do, and the very young who aren’t in the job market yet, love it.

Superbrand Narendra Modi: Cast in Titanium, not merely coated with Teflon

 

[RISING SUN]

Not must that seniormost MLA has to be pro tem speaker: SC
The Supreme Court on Saturday told the Congress-JD(S) combine that the convention of the seniormost MLA being named the pro tem speaker had no legal force and pointed to past instances to reject the challenge to K G Bopaiah’s appointment as pro tem speaker in the Karnataka assembly.

Kapil Sibal, appearing for the Congress-JD(S) alliance, started with an apology to the bench of Justices A K Sikri, S A Bobde and Ashok Bhushan for causing discomfort by forcing an urgent hearing on a holiday. Sibal, also a Congress leader, said Bopaiah was unsuited to be the pro tem speaker on two counts — one, he was not the seniormost MLA, who by convention was appointed to the post, and two, he was indicted by the SC for irregularly disqualifying some MLAs who had revolted against B S Yeddyurappa during his earlier tenure as CM.

Justice Bobde recounted how Balasaheb Vikhe Patil, despite not being the seniormost MP, was appointed pro tem speaker in 2004 (when UPA came to power). Sis Ram Ola was the seniormost member in Lok Sabha at the time. “Please check this, I don’t want to contradict you,” Justice Bobde told Sibal.

Yeddyurappa’s counsel Mukul Rohatgi cited the 2005 Jharkhand instance where Pradeep Balmuchu was appointed pro tem speaker ahead of seniormost MLA Inder Singh Namdhari and how the UPA was allowed to disrupt proceedings in the face of imminent defeat in the House. Sibal admitted that it was not mandatory that the seniormost member be named pro tem speaker. “But we have a problem with Bopaiah as he has been indicted by the SC and we fear something similar may happen,” he said.

The bench said, “...You want us to consider the bona fide and suitability of Bopiah as pro tem speaker and give a ruling on that? If that is so, then we must defer the floor test, issue notice to Bopaiah, hear him and then give a finding on the issue raised by you.”

The possibility of the floor test being deferred forced Sibal and A M Singhvi to push the panic button. Sibal said the issue could be solved by the SC ordering that the pro tem speaker would only administer oath to MLAs and oversee election of the Speaker and not take up the floor test.

The bench said, “This will be contrary to the order passed at your behest on Friday that the pro tem speaker will conduct the floor test at 4 pm on Saturday. If you want a review of that order, then we will hear you and postpone the vote on confidence motion. The issue got resolved when additional solicitor general Tushar Mehta said the Speaker had ordered live telecast of House proceedings. The bench said “nothing can be more transparent and fair than this”. However, House proceedings have been telecast live for the last few years.
Not must that seniormost MLA has to be pro tem speaker: SC - Times of India

 

[_Anonymous_]

Superbrand Narendra Modi: Cast in Titanium, not merely coated with Teflon

There's a one word summary for what's written above - HOPE.

Any leader worth his salt strives to build that quality in his people.The best of them deliver on it. As to how successful has Modi been in its delivery, the jury is still out. It'd declare it's verdict come May '19.

 

[_Anonymous_]

And the real winner is ......

 

[Ashwin]

 

[vstol Jockey]

on 15th i had written about the prediction of an astrologer who has been bang on. Planet Jupiter which is in Libra sign today and which has given this Rajayoga to HDK will move to Vrishchak rashi in Oct. That will take away the rajayoga of HDK and bestow Rajayoga on Yeddy. So as per astrology, this govt will probably last only till the end of Oct this year. Or it might fall sooner followed by a brief Presidents rule followed by return of Yeddy as CM.

 

[CountryFirst]

on 15th i had written about the prediction of an astrologer who has been bang on. Planet Jupiter which is in Libra sign today and which has given this Rajayoga to HDK will move to Vrishchak rashi in Oct. That will take away the rajayoga of HDK and bestow Rajayoga on Yeddy. So as per astrology, this govt will probably last only till the end of Oct this year. Or it might sooner followed by a brief Presidents rule followed by return of Yeddy as CM.

Your posts are always positive news Keep it coming

 

[RISING SUN]

Tamils should be thankful to PM Modi for resolving Cauvery issue: Pon Radhakrishnan
Contending that the vexatious Cauvery issue has been resolved in favour of Tamil Nadu, Union Minister of State for Finance and Shipping Pon Radhakrishnan has claimed the people of Tamil Nadu should be grateful to Prime Minister Narendra Modi for solving the 150-year-old problem.

“The Cauvery issue has been concluded. The Centre has addressed the wishes of the TN people and ensured a favourable solution to the 150-year-old problem, thanks to the efforts of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. We should be thankful to the PM as long as the Tamil society lasts,” Mr. Radhakrishnan told reporters in Nagercoil on Saturday.

Allaying the apprehensions of the people, he said following the Centre’s submission in the Supreme Court on the issue, obtaining Cauvery water for TN will be a reality soon.

Expressing in similar vein, BJP state president Dr Tamilisai Soundararajan has appealed to the people of the state to be “little patient” and allow the Centre’s scheme to translate into deeds soon.

Meanwhile, Tamil Culture Minister K. Pandiarajan, during an informal chat with reporters here on Saturday said discussion on the nomenclature was insignificant because what is of paramount importance is that TN should get Cauvery water. “I am hopeful that we will obtain the Cauvry water soon,” he added.

Cong, JD (S) construe their members as trading commodities:
Lashing out at the Congress for accusing the BJP of indulging in horse trading in Karnataka to sustain in power, Mr. Radhakrishnan said there was no need for his BJP to indulge in horse trading. “Perhaps, the Congress and JD (S) may construe their elected members are commodities or horses to be traded. So, they would have expressed that their members would be traded. But there is no need for the BJP to indulge in horse trading,” he said reacting to the allegation.
Tamils should be thankful to PM Modi for resolving Cauvery issue: Pon Radhakrishnan
I am not legally expert to have a informed opinion on this, however I feel this government has gone even beyond Vajpeyee ji government in resolving the outstanding issues like Naga issue, water devision issues between Karnataka and TamilNadu etc while still ensuring the supremacy of constitution.

 

[RISING SUN]

'MLA can vote in House only after taking oath'
If an MLA does not take oath, he does not participate in the trust motion to be moved by CM BS Yeddyurappa on the floor of the House, lawyers in the know of the options being considered by the BJP camp told TOI and cited the SC's 1984 judgment in Pashupati Nath Sukul case.

The judgment said an MLA, even before taking oath, could vote in Rajya Sabha polls but could not participate in business of the House, which includes voting on a trust motion or no-confidence motion. "If a dozen MLAs from rival parties do not take oath and BJP is able to win over two Independent MLAs, it will be able to prove majority on the floor," a lawyer said.

The independents in discussion are H Nagesh and KPJP's R Shankar, who have so far not declared any intention of voting BJP.

The lawyers said the Sukul judgment is to be read along with Article 188, which says: "Every member of the legislative assembly or the legislative council of a state shall, before taking his seat, make and subscribe before the governor, or some person appointed in that behalf by him, an oath or affirmation according to the form set out for the purpose in the third schedule." This makes it clear that unless an MLA takes oath, he cannot take a seat inside the House and, hence, cannot vote.

This could give some credence to AG KK Venugopal's argument at the midnight hearing that whether the anti-defection law could be applied to MLAs who had not taken oath was a grey constitutional area. This argument was termed "preposterous" by a bench of Justices AK Sikri, SA Bobde and Ashok Bhushan.

This interpretation of the 1984 ruling by BJP's lawyers appears to have been confirmed by the SC in its judgment on April 24. A bench of Justices Madan B Lokur and Deepak Gupta, while dealing with a no-confidence motion case in a panchayat, held that since the Constitution categorically provided for it, an MLA has to take oath to participate in the voting. But the bench was divided on the question whether an elected panchayat member, without taking oath, could participate in a no-confidence motion vote.

Elaborating on this, Justice Gupta had written, "As far as judgment of this court is concerned (the 1984 one), the members of legislative assembly, who had not taken oath, were taking part in elections to the Rajya Sabha, which was definitely not part of the business of the legislative assembly.

According to me, members who have not taken oath and, therefore, do not have a right to vote for the no-confidence motion, cannot be permitted to sign such a motion." Justice Gupta had extended the same logic to panchayats, where it had not been made mandatory for a member to take oath.
Karnataka floor test: Two Congress MLAs absent at Vidhana Soudha
02:19

'MLA can vote in House only after taking oath' - Times of India

 

[vstol Jockey]

@Guynextdoor, The truth aabout so called horse trading tapes has come out. The Congress MP whose wife was supposed to have been approached has denied that she was ever called by anyone and she has categorically called the tapes a lie on TV. now what? I see the hand of cambridge Analytica in spreading falsehood about BJP to defame BJP. Inact congress MLAs themselves have denied that they have featured in those tapes. now what?

 

[Guynextdoor]

@Guynextdoor, The truth aabout so called horse trading tapes has come out. The Congress MP whose wife was supposed to have been approached has denied that she was ever called by anyone and she has categorically called the tapes a lie on TV. now what? I see the hand of cambridge Analytica in spreading falsehood about BJP to defame BJP. Inact congress MLAs themselves have denied that they have featured in those tapes. now what?

Yeah...BJP didn't try horse trading

 

[RATHORE]

So DK Shivakumar wants to be Dep CM, at least one Dalit will have to be made Dep CM, the Lingayat MLA's of Congress are demanding a Dep CM spot, and now Muslims are also demanding a Dep CM spot. Meanwhile the guy who beat Siddaramaiah in Chamundeshwari is bound to get an important ministry and play a big role in the Government.

Kya hoga is alliance ka?

 

[vstol Jockey]

The best part is that HDK will be a bigger puppet than MMS. Congress will have its speaker, a Dy CM of its own and 22 ministerial berths. HDK wanted to be king and now he is doormat.