Ahh yes, I sub consciously counted them as well with the Bengal issue. Assam too, absolutely. The Northeasterners are hellbent on committing suicide by opposing CAB; we should be taking in every group like Bengali Hindus and Buddhist Chakmas etc.
Indian Political Discussion
- Thread starter Parul
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Ahh yes, I sub consciously counted them as well with the Bengal issue. Assam too, absolutely. The Northeasterners are hellbent on committing suicide by opposing CAB; we should be taking in every group like Bengali Hindus and Buddhist Chakmas etc.
I think where the Modi Government erred was in giving these refugees a carte blanche. Apparently, the Citizenship act not only provided citizenship to all Hindus, Buddhists, etc , from the NE in this case , with no cut off date but also promised automatic citizenship to prospective refugees thus, in a way inviting them over which must have terrified the Ahoms and other native tribes in Assam & the NE,who can be categorized as xenophobic, at best, even with each other.
Now, Modi being such a shrewd political operative, would've known this bill wouldn't pass in the RS. Did he go thru the motions all the same with an eye on seats in WB & Assam ( among Bengali Hindu migrants) & especially among those who've not yet received citizenship in WB like the Matuas? I can't find any other logical explanation for this curious development.
I can assure you that in J&K, Haryana, Delhi, Gujrat, MP, Rajasthan, UK, HP, Bihar, JK, Karnataka, Maharashtra & Goa, BJP will perform better than 2014. It will lose seats in CG, Punjab, UP, Andhra+Telangana & TN. But the loss of seats in these states will be just about 15-20 seats and and these seats will be made up from WB & Orrisa. I am looking at 65+ seats in UP now for BJP. This seat prediction is for BJP and not NDA. I still say that BJP will get majority on its own but NDA allies contribution will be lesser this time.
Yo, come on its not that monolithic of an opinion. Not everybody opposes it, some vigorously support it. The primary problem we have in Trump's own words is "Jobs,Jobs,Jobs". Frankly there aren't many. Past govt. in Centre have a long record of totally ignoring our needs. We don't have much industry, nor do we have much tourism, our state govt. are always low on cash. But despite all that people have aspirations, what to do ? can't be helped.
Now some of the states seem to be getting on their feet economically, including the one I come from. We still have a long way to go. In this backdrop we have an influx of illegal immigrants. That naturally causes a competition of resources, taking in people of a certain religion while blocking some other won't fix the competition of resources. It won't help us anyway. That's where the opposition to CAB comes from.
There is another view point to this which is basically the one most of us here share, demographic change that eventually fuels secession tendencies. Those who understand it are likely the ones with more exposure to the wider world, not every body has that, I am afraid. Then there are the son of a b***h politicians who will play on these subjects to win votes. This is what you mostly see on TV.
What the local BJP people are doing is promising a constant support from the Centre : financial, technical or otherwise to us as a way of weakening the opposition to CAB and allaying local fears. But people are unlike to be rejoicing over it. I remember, as recently as the late 90s-early 2000s, we asked the Central govt. for funding to build a railway line(we didn't have railway connection then), they pretty much told us "go f**k yourself" diplomatically. Just my two cents.
The young voter between the age group of 21-35 which was most vocal for lack of jobs has compeletly turned towards BJP due to the Balakot strikes by Modi. This age group looks for strong and decisive leaders to be their role model and Modi has shown himself to be one such leader. They are now more than willing to give him another chance and wait for the jobs. Majority of floating voters belong to this segment as the elders and people in above 40 age group normally develop a strong preference for one ideology or the other and are committed voters to that ideoplogy. The first time voters for LS this tiome is 2.7% of total voters. Majority of this voter has still not hit the job market.
I understand your concerns, but people began jumping up and down prematurely as if all these refugees were gonna be located in the Northeast alone, when assurances were made that all of India would split the "burden." Also, you would know better since you're on the ground over there; but this Gvt seems radically in different when it comes to their vision, intent and execution for development/progress of the Northeast - so yes you guys might have issues stemming from ~60 years of Central neglect, but as long as the BJP is around at Central (and preferably State) level, that would appear to be a thing of the past. Connectivity, industry and opportunities will slowly but surely increase for you guys.
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The BJP swept Delhi, MP, Guj, Mah, Raj, Jammu, etc. How much can they better it this time? In Maharashtra, I can assure you, the NCP + Cong combine will take in anyway between 25-50% seats. I do realise this is a broad guesstimate. The same would be true for the states which recently saw state elections viz CG, MP, Raj.
The only way Modi can storm home is if he can sell the idea that a vote to the opposition is a vote lost as there is no coherent opposition to provide 5 years of stable rule. It sounds easier than done.
The other is if the electorate distinguishes local elections from central elections and vote on local issues in state elections and national issues in Central elections - a trend we used to see in IG's era.
I think all Dharmic refugees deserve a carte blanche; BUT these refugees will have to be generously supported by the Central Government, and dispersed across the country so that the Northeast which is already in a fragile state due to Congress neglect/mishandling isn't overly burdened when it's still getting on its feet.
But if India is to remain India, and if the Dharmic people of the world are to survive, then India will have to power through all resistance and criticism to become the official, global homeland of Dharmic peoples.
People are stupid. Some more than the others. Multiple factors are at play here, some don't know much about it and just lap up whatever they are told and regurgitate. Some are conflict entrepreneurs, who thrive on it. But these elements are not endemic to the NE. Let's not draw conclusion about the whole region from some over vocal fools.
I know, which is why I voted for the BJP. But then I alone won't matter much in a one-man, one-vote democracy.
Fair enough, my apologies for the generalization. I'm mainly upset by the conditions of those refugees + our current inability to swiftly come to their rescue.
In MP, victory margin on 22 seats was lower than the number of votes polled by NOTA. These NOTA guys will now vote for Modi and same is the case in Rajasthan where the people openly declared, "Modi say bair nahin, Raani teri khair nahin". In Maharashtra, BJP+SS is in far stronger condition that NCP+Congress. One of the biggest factors in favour BJP+SS is three strong contenders, NCP+Congress, BSP+SP and AIMIM+Ambedkar's son's party combine. Now make your own estimate about division of votes and who will get benefitted.
I think you meant to reply to @_Anonymous_ but I agree. RJ will probably be ~20 out of 25. Maharashtra, I've routinely seen the figure of 40 for NDA (NCP+CON were hemorrhaging leaders, AIMIM + Ambedkar will cut votes, and Fadnavis seems brilliant at managing different groups - he's even slowly getting Marathas on board). MP I have seen figures of ~23 I believe. And Gujarat could possibly even be 26, but won't fall below 24.
UP losses have also been exaggerated I believe, NDA will likely get around 50 seats. These losses should be more than made up for from Bengal, Odisha, Northeast and Tamil Nadu.
NOTA Factor was overblown, some 1% voted NOTA way lower than 2% general average. But since a campaign and narrative was formed it was assumed it was a big factor, even when you limit it to a local area and seat it wasn't worrying or anything above normal.
Easier said than done. I don't think anyone state in India would shoulder this additional burden. To begin with the opposition will mount a shrill campaign only for the left liberandu MSM, academia to move in.
In principal what you say is right but it's going to be an uphill task with no guarantee of success. To begin with, I think once the final draft of the NRC is collated and deemed final, the GoI must revoke the provision of citizenship from these illegal migrants. Before that, the Modi Govt ought to reach terms with civil society in the NEW to dilute opposition to this bill. This may include diluting certain provisions like setting a cut off date and not promising prospective citizen ship to new arrivals. For the time being. Once this is achieved, let the process of withdrawal of citizenship happen.
Let there be no deportation or any such Coercive measures for obvious reasons as bad optics, etc but all such provisions automatically rendered under the original CB & the CAB such as ownership of land, houses, etc revert to the state. Education, healthcare benefits and employment ceases.
These moves should be implemented strictly across India with an NRC to be enacted in all border states initially followed by the rest of the nation. A deadline needs to get imposed and strictly monitored. In due course, most of the illegal Bangladeshis feeling unwanted and with no employment worth the name , would move back to their land. I'm sure with the kind of growth in their economy a large no of then can be gainfully employed too.
Once there's a significant momentum in this trend the rest can be mopped up & thrown out. This would require years of monitoring and a separate dedicated cadre of bureaucrats and enforcement personnel on the lines of the Immigration Services of the US, with a dedicated budget to implement the same.
Just my two cents.
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I am fundamentally opposed to a cutoff date; because persecution in Muslim countries is steadily getting worse - not lessening.
You can always rescind it later. You can't achieve everything at one stroke. This problem wasn't created in a day. It won't go away in a day. One has to be tactful not impetuous in driving such an agenda.
Yes. It wrongly got replied to you. I am giving about 42 seats in Maharshtra, 23 in Rajasthan, 27 in MP and 25 in Gujrat. My estimate for UP is 65+ seats. Muslims have not voted tactically in first phase. they decided to stay at home. And so was the case with BSP Jatavs voters. Western UP has largest Muslim population and in first phase BJP has maintained momentum. Lucknow and Rampur have largest number of Shia Voters among muslims (20%) who vote for BJP. I will be least surprised if Azam Khan loses from Rampur.
Sorry, NOTA effect was most noticeable in closely fought seats and I had predicted that many seats will have very low victory margins when I had predicted 115-125 seats for BJP in MP. I failed to take into account NOTA that time.
I am not sure about the exact extent of damage. But BJP is certainly going to gain some seats. I won’t be surprised if BJP grabs power in state as well.