Indian Political Discussion
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I agree with you and I feel exit polls are adding some Pro-BJP offsets just to correct earlier mistakes of 2014 general election, 2017 UP assembly election and to some extent 2018 Rajasthan assembly election.
Last night I was in a party and in that party I was shocked to see even most bitter critics of Modi expect BJP to come back to power and might cross 300 as well !! It was a mixed crowd with people from different parts of India and there were couple of things everybody agreed with. 1. There are no major scams in last 5 years (Rafale is more of a joke than actual scam) 2. In general Modi is taking India in right direction in spite of disagreement over the level of effectiveness of different schemes/policies. The biggest allegation against Modi was religious polarization of politics which I felt is not a very strong reason for any fence sitter to choose anybody else over Modi. In any election, it's the fence sitters who always swing the outcome in one way or other.
So today's exit polls pretty much reflected the mood of the party. I would still keep my fingers crossed till 23rd, but it will be almost impossible for BJP to score below 200, which most opposition parties and some NDA partners hoped for. I would expect BJP to get at least 240+ and NDA around 280+. If BJP gets majority on it's own, then opposition can comfortably forget about 2024 election and rather prepare for 2029. Modi spent last 5 years preparing the ground ( Fixing NPA issues, ease of doing business and general infrastructure etc). The actual results will show up over next 5 years and then opposition will not have much ammunition to fight with. There are enough examples like Gujarat, Odisha and MP which enjoyed continuous stints due to good governance and there is a very good chance Modi will do the same in center.
I wish I had the option to like & agree at the same time to a post.
Similarly I wish there were options to simultaneously dislike and laugh at Guynextdoor's posts
I think demonetization & religious polarization are the two issues that might go against BJP. GST roll out was not smooth but seems to be settling down well.
Wouldnt trust these exit polls , some times they have gone widely off the mark. Need to wait for the actual results, even a 3-5% swing votes will make a lot of difference.
Demonitization helped BJP in UP election. It's just keep alive by opposition parties and their crony media houses who are running awfully short of any real issues.
I won't trust these exit polls either, but they can't go wrong like 2004.
I concur. The methodology would have certainly improved over 2004 though most pollsters still get it wrong. But not by a wide margin. I still hold on to 250-280 to NDA but we'd know the truth on the 23rd.
Exit Poll 2019 Results Live Updates: Modi magic set to sweep India again; NDA to win 365 seats
Exit Poll 2019 Results Live Updates: Modi magic set to sweep India again; NDA to win 365 seats
Exit Poll 2019 Results Live Updates: Modi magic set to sweep India again; NDA to win 365 seats
I do not think that there is any religious polarization by BJP. There is in no way any attack on Muslims or Christians in any way.
What BJP is promoting is purely the revival of self esteem and unification of Hindus on a forward looking developmental agenda along with and protecting it from predators from Christian Missionaries and reversing the acts of Islamic aggressors, aka Ram Janma Bhoomi and destroying the terrorism chain from its source. And no religious minorities are left out of this development agenda.
Communal appeasement and Caste politics is what BJP is trying to KILL. And that is what the opposition dislikes and is thus naming it as religious polarization, which in reality is social transformation and unification. Modi is undoing the "divide, rule and destroy India" policy of the Khangress which it inherited from the British. At the heart of Khangress, this is their real hidden agenda which they pursue with intense vigor - to destroy the Hindu civilization by appeasing Muslims, ignoring the complete NE and allowing it to convert to Christianity immediately after 1947 (I hate to call it as an Independence, instead it was simply transfer of power. India's real independence was on 26th May 2014) and divide the Hindus on caste.
This is what all of the anti-BJP parties do not like as the foundation on which they have built power and have mis-ruled India is decimated. The whole edifice of the opposition's existence built on this foundation is crumbling down. This is what is causing atrophy of their existence.
BJP promoted "Gau-raksha" without a deep follow through in the thought process on the complete cycle from cradle to grave for the cows. Now, it has become a nuisance to manage the abandoned animals. I hope some sense prevails and they somehow find a respectable escape from their original stand in order to solve the problem of abandonment.
Plus this election is more similar to 2009 than 2004. What worked for Congress in 2009 will work for BJP now.
1. Overall condition of India is in reasonably good shape(True in 2009 and current condition is certainly much better in every aspect compared to 2009). Those who crib about current job scenario, just ask people who suffered during 2009 downturn.
2. Uninspiring opposition leader ( Advani didn't inspire even hardcore BJP supporters and this space is completely void now).
3. No specific motivation for general public to vote for a change (True in both 2009 and 2019).
Modi scores way higher than MM in every tangible segment. Considering these factors I won't be surprised if BJP comes very close to 272 or even surpass that number.
We are still 3+ days away from opening a Champagne bottle. There are other exit polls providing different numbers, so it can be anywhere from a very thin majority for NDA, around 277 to 365 what is predicted here.Exit Poll 2019 Results Live Updates: Modi magic set to sweep India again; NDA to win 365 seats
Exit Poll 2019 Results Live Updates: Modi magic set to sweep India again; NDA to win 365 seats
Depending on the result it will be either a local made Tharra or an expensive aged French Champagne - Armand de Brignac
Personally I think BJP will on its own cross 300+ and with the NDA combined it may near the 400 tally mark
I completely agree with you. The religious polarization was the only negative point Modi haters could come up during the discussion
. I must accept that the "Modi haters" were sensible and gracious enough to accept the tangible achievements of Modi government unlike typical AAP supporters 
.
I completely agree with you. The religious polarization was the only negative point Modi haters could come up during the discussion
There was a joke going around when AAP won 4 LS seats from Punjab in 2014, and the reason for that was that voters there were finally very happy to vote for AAP because - "Oye, ay tan Aapan de party hai, kardo vote" - "Dudes, this party belongs to us, go vote for it" (Aap = Ours)
That is how AAP won in Punjab and Delhi
That's way too optimistic, Truth often lies between the most conservative & most optimistic Exit poll, looking at all the exits polls predictions, a 280-290 figure be my guess, it still means a outright majority.Exit Poll 2019 Results Live Updates: Modi magic set to sweep India again; NDA to win 365 seats
Exit Poll 2019 Results Live Updates: Modi magic set to sweep India again; NDA to win 365 seats
but we'd know the truth on the 23rd only.
The fixers, the power brokers, the intellectuals, the opinion makers, the ministry fixers, defenders of corrupt, best spinners, the real frauds of India.
Look at these faces, choked out of power, influence, freeloading, enjoy the disappointment, enjoy the frustration, doesn't matter what happen on 23 this picture is very satisfying.
Look at these faces, choked out of power, influence, freeloading, enjoy the disappointment, enjoy the frustration, doesn't matter what happen on 23 this picture is very satisfying.
Frankly Rubbish Kumar & Sudheendra Kulkarni look perenially constipated and Sagarika Ghose is perenially afflicted by flatulence. Nidhi Razdan & S Jain are good actors but their eyes betray them as do their body language at times. Chandan Mitra might want to slap himself. Can't make out the rest of the jokers. One last observation - the commies like Raja & Yechury are more likely to permanently shift residence in the TV studios now and peddle their wares from there, particularly from UndyTV now that their dwindling nos can't even ensure a seat in the RS.
After the hurly burly’s done — Next government must wake up to reality: India has fallen further behind China
Excerpts :
For a country that wants to supplant if not surpass China in the global sweepstakes, New Delhi has been quite oblivious to the spat and its fallout that has suddenly opened up vast opportunities for India. Manufacturers are scrambling to find alternate supply chains and President Donald Trump is urging Americans to buy anything but Chinese, but India is closed for business. Sated and asleep with an overdose of electioneering, thank you.
Illustration: Ajit Ninan
Regardless of which dispensation comes in to govern in New Delhi later this week, India needs to stop living a big lie that it is somehow doing well and is destined for greatness or great power status without the hard yards, without being alert, nimble and fleet-footed. The modest and incremental progress it has made since Independence is underscored by an infuriating inertia that has seen the country fall steadily behind China from the time they were about on par in 1980.
Blaming Nehru? Ten years of Congress-led UPA bookended by six plus five years of BJP-led NDA has put India even further behind China, which now has the heft and nerve to go toe-to-toe, eyeball-to-eyeball against the United States.
Excerpts :
For a country that wants to supplant if not surpass China in the global sweepstakes, New Delhi has been quite oblivious to the spat and its fallout that has suddenly opened up vast opportunities for India. Manufacturers are scrambling to find alternate supply chains and President Donald Trump is urging Americans to buy anything but Chinese, but India is closed for business. Sated and asleep with an overdose of electioneering, thank you.
Illustration: Ajit Ninan
Regardless of which dispensation comes in to govern in New Delhi later this week, India needs to stop living a big lie that it is somehow doing well and is destined for greatness or great power status without the hard yards, without being alert, nimble and fleet-footed. The modest and incremental progress it has made since Independence is underscored by an infuriating inertia that has seen the country fall steadily behind China from the time they were about on par in 1980.
Blaming Nehru? Ten years of Congress-led UPA bookended by six plus five years of BJP-led NDA has put India even further behind China, which now has the heft and nerve to go toe-to-toe, eyeball-to-eyeball against the United States.
ask basanti not to get her hopes up too much just yet. WHile everyone, including moi expects modi to return with a reduced majority. No one belives the rosy picture that is coming out. Including BJP Allies
Elections 2019: "Exit Polls A Lie," Says Tamil Nadu Chief Minister, A BJP Ally
@vstol Jockey the below is the kind of stupidity one must not do using exit polls, especially when many of these polls are 'influenced' by BJP themselves
General Election 2019: Day After Exit Polls, Yogi Adityanath Removes BJP Ally From UP Cabinet
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