Indian Political Discussion

Probably the sanest article I've read on politics in a while. Do give it a read.

2019 polls: Noida versus Lodhi road

This poll is about who will dominate power in the future and whose idea of India will reign supreme

Updated: May 02, 2019 21:15 IST
Abhinav Prakash Singh
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This Lok Sabha election is a war between the old urban power centre and the new upcoming challengers(Sunil Ghosh / Hindustan Times)

The battle for 2019 is in full swing but there is an even bigger war being fought for over a decade now which will have a more decisive say on the future of India. Since Independence, the destiny of India has been dominated by a small group of urban upper-caste Nehruvian elites ruling in alliance with local feudal elites who were responsible for ensuring election victories. The social structure of power was simple: The urban elites would dominate the academia, bureaucracy, institutions and policymaking, and local feudal elites would be left alone except to undertake some token pro-people actions like tenancy reforms which would be passed off as land reforms. The poor and destitute could hardly exercise their votes freely. They voted as they were told to by the feudals of the dominant castes or were denied the vote. Booth capturing and preventing people from reaching the polling venues were common events.

The major reason why the Nehruvians ruled unchallenged for years and a specific Idea of India reigned supreme was this politics of non-freedom at the grassroots notwithstanding all talk of social justice and democracy in the seminar halls and party manifestos. This was challenged vigorously from the 1980s by the Dalit and OBCs’ (other backward classes) assertion which changed the dynamics of the electoral battle and reduced the space available to the traditional elites in the direct exercise of the power. But even they couldn’t challenge the hegemony of the Nehruvian consensus as the terms of reference remained the same old Idea of India which is a secular-socialist, Gandhian dystopia. Even the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) remained stuck within this framework.

But something else was churning on the ground. The economic reforms created a new class of people who were not part of the old elite. They were not landed elites in the countryside or part of the bureaucratic structures or derived their power and wealth from proximity to the corridors of power in Lutyens’ Delhi. They were simple middle and neo-middle class folk from small towns armed with modern education for whom the avenues of socioeconomic mobility were suddenly opened up by the growing private sector. Over the past two decades, millions of them moved from mofussil towns and regional capitals to the burgeoning metropolises of Delhi, Mumbai and Bengaluru. They could hope for a better lifestyle and opportunities without being part of the old system.

These new urban denizens were not part of the globetrotting old urban elites. They did not have foreign degrees or relatives settled in the West. They were rooted in their customs and traditions and their drawing room talks centred not on US politics but local concerns back in their home districts. They were to be found in the rapidly growing new urban landscapes of Noida and Gurugram. Their dream, and the dream they inspired back home, was to buy a flat in the satellite towns of metropolises — not to move to London or the US. And they did not agree with the Nehruvian Idea of India imposed from the top through newsrooms and academic propaganda. They looked at the old elites with disdain and held them responsible for the bad policies which kept India a poor and backward country. For them, the nation and nationalism were not abstract concepts nor was their religion or culture an academic object to be deconstructed using psychoanalysis and twisted beyond recognition. They had had enough of being talked down to by the high priests of the Nehruvian consensus on the virtues of secularism and socialism.

Rebellion was in the air but the old elites, nested comfortably in Lodhi Road, had no idea about its existence. And then came social media. Facebook, Whatsapp and Twitter completely changed how public discourse was conducted. No longer could journalists, news anchors or even academics, pass on their versions as indisputable facts. They were challenged by your average officegoer or by college students. One by one, all the myth-making of the Nehruvian consensus was shredded by the millions who now had a voice and an audience. It is they who rooted for the new BJP under Narendra Modi in 2014 and swept aside the old mainstream media. It is they who have been marked as the new evil by the old elites as bhakts who must be demonised and purged. It is this war of the narratives that underpins the 2019 elections. It is about who will dominate the avenues of power in the future and whose Idea of India will reign supreme. It is a war between the old urban power centre and the new upcoming challengers. It is a war between Noida and the Lodhi Road.

Abhinav Prakash Singh is an assistant professor at SRCC, Delhi University

The views expressed are personal

2019 polls: Noida versus Lodhi road
 
I am with My Old Monk right now. Modi did meditation in Kedarnath, for me god is everywhere especially with Old Monk around. I have turned it into Ganga water by mixing Ganga water in it. Anything which has Ganga water in it, Turns Ganga. So I am not drinking at all. Cheers.
I wonder how do ppl drink old monk in summer. A 1/4 pint whisky in bombay and I sweat the entire night.
 
I wonder how do ppl drink old monk in summer. A 1/4 pint whisky in bombay and I sweat the entire night.
Yes. This is called Meditation and Yoga. Old Monk is a drink for all seasons anywhere in the world. It transcends you to a different world. Away from Earth and what we call Antrix. A space where nothing exists. Not even you yourself. Only Atma exists.
 
Exceptional numbers in UP by multiple exit polls! While ABP news is totally off the mark most are giving 65+!

In the coming days if exit polls and UP results translate-

  • Ashok Lavasa will be whistleblower like Sanjiv Bhatt every fraud technique will be used to discredit results, prepration already started.
  • Peace overtures from Pakistan, some concessions probable.
  • SP-BSP ending relationship ending on a messy note, Akhilesh going to face real tough time and could be thrown out of party or lead fraction of SP to oblivion. Probably last time Mulayam tolerated him.
  • Mayawati is finished, game over for her and most cadre, leaders will migrate to other parties.
The fear and lack of confidence this election will instil into SP BSP is not going to come out in next few decades. Exceptional numbers, anything above 60 is landslide, biggest win, even better than Bengal or Orissa.

Rahul lost every chance when he supported Kanhaiya in JNU for seditious slogans, don't think he will ever be forgiven in hindi heartland too sentimental with anything related to sedition, whatever was left was finished by another JNU lefty his speech writer and chief of staff.

Multiple myths were destroyed in 2014 but 2019 is a confirmation. Muslim votebank, Dalit votebank, any kind of vote bank is finished because of greed and corrupt leaders, people ready to migrate to new avenues if they find better alternative, no slavery, BJP should also keep this in mind.

What changed?
Information available with commoners, informed electorate.
 
Exceptional numbers in UP by multiple exit polls! While ABP news is totally off the mark most are giving 65+!

In the coming days if exit polls and UP results translate-

  • Ashok Lavasa will be whistleblower like Sanjiv Bhatt every fraud technique will be used to discredit results, prepration already started.

  • Peace overtures from Pakistan, some concessions probable.

  • SP-BSP ending relationship ending on a messy note, Akhilesh going to face real tough time and could be thrown out of party or lead fraction of SP to oblivion. Probably last time Mulayam tolerated him.

  • Mayawati is finished, game over for her and most cadre, leaders will migrate to other parties.
The fear and lack of confidence this election will install into SP BSP is not going to come out in next few decades. Exceptional numbers, anything above 60 is landslide, biggest win, even better than Bengal or Orissa.

Rahul lost every chance when he supported Kanhaiya in JNU for seditious slogans, don't think he will ever be forgiven in hindi heartland too sentimental with anything related to sedition, whatever was left was finished by another JNU lefty his speech writer and chief of staff.

Multiple myths were destroyed in 2014 but 2019 is a confirmation. Muslim votebank, Dalit votebank, any kind of vote bank is finished because of greed and corrupt leaders, people ready to migrate to new avenues if they find better alternative, no slavery, BJP should also keep this in mind.

What changed?
Information available with commoners, informed electorate.
I would advise caution. After all exit polls have been spectacularly wrong before. Let's wait for the 23rd.However, even if we are to assume the NDA comes to power with a simple majority ( & I personally think that way) , it'd be a return to the patterns of voting seen in the IG era. Which in turn means the electorate would vote differently in state and central polls. I'd be very interested in the elections in Orissa as both state and central polls are held together as opposed to say an AP where BJP has negligible presence. This has relevance to UP too where if the MG persists ( which I very much doubt, for various reasons - one out of which is the undeclared agreement between Mayawati & Akhilesh that the latter would be numero uno in UP politics for the MG whereas Mayawati would play a similar role for the MG at the centre) , it could spell deep trouble for YA come 2022 .Finally, I believe more than anything else the TINA factor played a decisive role much as in the IG era.
 
If, as projected by some exit polls, the BJP reaches or comes close to the half way mark in WB, Momota will burst an aneurysm. Which technically she should have burst in the late 80's after that legendary lathi charge on her head brought about profound changes in her personality and the politics in WB. This is one aneurysm burst long overdue & something I'm personally looking forward too. The other being Khujliwal.
 
Exit polls:
*Cvoter*
NDA - 287
UPA - 128
Others - 127

*TimesNow*
NDA @ 306;
UPA @ 132

*NewsX*
NDA @ 298;
UPA @ 118;
Other @ 127.

*Jan ki baat*
NDA - 295-315
UPA - 114-134
Others - 103-123

*NewsX*
NDA @ 298
UPA @ 118
Other @ 127

*Zee News*
NDA - 306
UPA - 132
Others - 104

*News nation*
NDA - 284
UPA - 127
Others - 132

*Chanakya*
NDA - 340
UPA - 70
Others - 132
 
Exit polls:
*Cvoter*
NDA - 287
UPA - 128
Others - 127

*TimesNow*
NDA @ 306;
UPA @ 132

*NewsX*
NDA @ 298;
UPA @ 118;
Other @ 127.

*Jan ki baat*
NDA - 295-315
UPA - 114-134
Others - 103-123

*NewsX*
NDA @ 298
UPA @ 118
Other @ 127

*Zee News*
NDA - 306
UPA - 132
Others - 104

*News nation*
NDA - 284
UPA - 127
Others - 132

*Chanakya*
NDA - 340
UPA - 70
Others - 132
Great work but you missed the most important one. NDTV wale kya bol rahe hain ? Their predictions along with their faces should tell you everything.