Is being a ' blue water navy' tag more important with a show the flag force or being more capable to handle china more important?
The blue water navy tag is what gives us the ability to handle China.
Chinese are building 'atleast' 6 85k-100k tonnes carriers.Personally i believe even our current force of carriers is largely not very useful except that they help us maintain vital chain of experience of carrier ops that we will need after 2040 when we graduate to real carriers( if hypersonic weapons dont render them obsolete by then) and because they can bully pakistan.They arent of much use even now in chinese context.Another 65 k tonne carrier against huge chinese flattops isnt going to change anything.We cant match the chinese in numbers or tonnage.But the best assymetric weapon is the submarine.A single silent submarine can paralyze a whole fleet .What is the greatest enemy of a submarine? Patrol aircraft.And the chinese cant use those away from their shores operating in the IOR.We need to exploit that.We will also have enough land based support from aircraft and shore batteries(andaman,southern and east india )where our surface fleet should operate( under umbrella) whereas ssk submarines should lurk in chokepoints in ambush and faster ssn should conduct hit and run attacks harassing the ingressing chinese fleet.
A 65k tonne carrier with its wing would cost 20 billion dollars plus.It would have over 2000 sailors with enormous daily maintainence costs.On top of that carriers are not ' future proof' ..we dont know how they will cope with the hypersonic era.
A modern diesel submarine costs around 500 million with low operating costs with 50 sailors.A nuclear submarine costs from 1 to 3 billion depending on sophistication.
What do you think will deter the chinese more for those 20 billion dollars of expenditure? 1 65k tonne carrier? Or 30-40 diesel submarines?Or may be 5 ssn +15-20 ssk mix?
That's not how it works. It's not 65k T carrier versus 100k T carrier. It's all about the type of aircraft the ships will carry and the way you use them.
Also, you have created this impression that we have to choose between carrier or submarines, but we are going for both.
We are going for 6 SSN + 24 SSK mix for now. And we are going for a third carrier. And we will also be going for a 4th, 5th and 6th after 2040.
Navy's current submarine plans are pathetic.They envision a force of 18 diesel submarines ,6 ssn and 6 ssbn.18 diesel submarines are a joke .Even pakistan is planning a force of 11 ssk(8 yuan plus 3 agosta).Navy needs to stop building loads of redundant ships ,especially these huge opvs and build submarines for a change.6 scorpenes,6 p75i and some older kilos is not going to cut it.Even ssn will come after 2030.They need to buy a dozen lada or upgraded kilos just to maintain numbers off the shelf in this decade itself.We need 24-30 ssk if we are going to only have 6 ssn.Once our submarine situation is stable let the navy buy a carrier if it can afford it,sure.But not at the cost of the sub fleet.Infact even if we had no carrier right now it wouldnt impact us much vis a vis china if we had a dozen more subs instead.
It's not 18 SSKs, but 24. Regardless, even 18 SSKs is a huge fleet, it's more than enough to keep both Pakistan and China in check.
Lets get to 10 trillion dollar economy first then start carrier building,china has a 12 trillion dollar economy before it started building.
Incorrect way to look at it. Look at PPP instead. Any carrier construction plan has to be an indigenous effort, so your own internal economy is going to fund it. China started their carrier plans when they were $10-15T worth. India is currently at $10T, so it's about time we start too, so our third carrier begins construction when we are at least $15T worth.
If you want to see how to maintain a powerful navy and plan well with limited resources look to the russians.The russians understand very well the future is in the submarine.So what are they doing?
They scrapped their next generation destroyer programme, their carrier programme,they build corvettes,talwar frigates abd a very limited amount of the sophisticated gorshkov frigates.Instead they went all out on submarines and land based assets.The bulk of the budget goes to yasen m new generation SSNs which cost a whopping 3 billion plus each,but even then they build them above all.The rest have been used to build borei class ssbn t 1 billion each and upgraded kilo class ssk to make up numbers at (400-500 miilion each).
This tells you the russian navy planners clearly understand their role vis a vis their main enemy - the us navy.
They have deployed land based bastion ( oniks/brahmos) coastal batteries in crimea,kaliningrad and sakhalin islands,they upgraded tu22 maritime strike bombers and inducted su34 strike bombers.
The russians recognize they are a sea denial force.The problem with IN admirals is they have gotten so used to the idea of dominating the IOR they are embedded in a sea dominance mentality that they practice against pakistan,their egos wont let them switch to a rational sea denial strategy vis a vis china,because sea dominance would never work against PLAN irrespective of whether you build another 65k tonne carrier or not.Government must not give in to the megalomania of the IN admirals and force them to accept the rational practical solution,not the prestige solution.
Not true at all. The Russians are gonna build multiple nuclear powered destroyers and even carriers. They are just too broke to build a surface fleet right now so they are concentrating on submarines and smaller ships instead. They are doing it out of compulsion, not choice. Not to mention, the Russian navy's surface capabilities are far more powerful than the IN, so they can afford to go a little slower on their surface fleet modernisation.
They are starting off with 2 Lider class destroyers, which will slowly climb into the double digits. The project has already begun with the design stage.
Russia to build 2 Lider-class nuclear-powered destroyers by end of 2020s — source
Then they will also follow it up with the Shtorm carrier, with the intention to operate after 2035, no different from our plans for IAC-3. The work on this carrier has also started.
So you can expect the Russians to start building their next gen destroyer and carrier after 2025. In the meantime they are building as many as 15 to possibly 30 Gorshkov class frigates which have as much or more firepower than the Kolkata class destroyer.
When it comes to the navy, you are nothing without a surface fleet, and the surface fleet is nothing without a carrier.