We need 6 carriers. But the IN wants to make do with 3 in the meantime due to financial constraints.
Basically, the Chinese plan to operate 6 carriers by 2030, so IN plans to counter that buildup with 3 carriers. This will allow us to have 24/7 presence at sea with at least 1 carrier, with 1 carrier on standby at port.
So, along with the subs, we also need the carriers.
And no, a carrier is not a showpony. People have got suckered in by western propaganda so people of other countries criticise any foreign carrier programs. So, while western countries will build and deploy a large number of carriers, non-western countries will get pressured into not having carrier programs of their own. Without carriers, you are not a blue water navy.
Is being a ' blue water navy' tag more important with a show the flag force or being more capable to handle china more important?
Chinese are building 'atleast' 6 85k-100k tonnes carriers.Personally i believe even our current force of carriers is largely not very useful except that they help us maintain vital chain of experience of carrier ops that we will need after 2040 when we graduate to real carriers( if hypersonic weapons dont render them obsolete by then) and because they can bully pakistan.They arent of much use even now in chinese context.Another 65 k tonne carrier against huge chinese flattops isnt going to change anything.We cant match the chinese in numbers or tonnage.But the best assymetric weapon is the submarine.A single silent submarine can paralyze a whole fleet .What is the greatest enemy of a submarine? Patrol aircraft.And the chinese cant use those away from their shores operating in the IOR.We need to exploit that.We will also have enough land based support from aircraft and shore batteries(andaman,southern and east india )where our surface fleet should operate( under umbrella) whereas ssk submarines should lurk in chokepoints in ambush and faster ssn should conduct hit and run attacks harassing the ingressing chinese fleet.
A 65k tonne carrier with its wing would cost 20 billion dollars plus.It would have over 2000 sailors with enormous daily maintainence costs.On top of that carriers are not ' future proof' ..we dont know how they will cope with the hypersonic era.
A modern diesel submarine costs around 500 million with low operating costs with 50 sailors.A nuclear submarine costs from 1 to 3 billion depending on sophistication.
What do you think will deter the chinese more for those 20 billion dollars of expenditure? 1 65k tonne carrier? Or 30-40 diesel submarines?Or may be 5 ssn +15-20 ssk mix?
Navy's current submarine plans are pathetic.They envision a force of 18 diesel submarines ,6 ssn and 6 ssbn.18 diesel submarines are a joke .Even pakistan is planning a force of 11 ssk(8 yuan plus 3 agosta).Navy needs to stop building loads of redundant ships ,especially these huge opvs and build submarines for a change.6 scorpenes,6 p75i and some older kilos is not going to cut it.Even ssn will come after 2030.They need to buy a dozen lada or upgraded kilos just to maintain numbers off the shelf in this decade itself.We need 24-30 ssk if we are going to only have 6 ssn.Once our submarine situation is stable let the navy buy a carrier if it can afford it,sure.But not at the cost of the sub fleet.Infact even if we had no carrier right now it wouldnt impact us much vis a vis china if we had a dozen more subs instead.Lets get to 10 trillion dollar economy first then start carrier building,china has a 12 trillion dollar economy before it started building.
If you want to see how to maintain a powerful navy and plan well with limited resources look to the russians.The russians understand very well the future is in the submarine.So what are they doing?
They scrapped their next generation destroyer programme, their carrier programme,they build corvettes,talwar frigates abd a very limited amount of the sophisticated gorshkov frigates.Instead they went all out on submarines and land based assets.The bulk of the budget goes to yasen m new generation SSNs which cost a whopping 3 billion plus each,but even then they build them above all.The rest have been used to build borei class ssbn t 1 billion each and upgraded kilo class ssk to make up numbers at (400-500 miilion each).
This tells you the russian navy planners clearly understand their role vis a vis their main enemy - the us navy.
They have deployed land based bastion ( oniks/brahmos) coastal batteries in crimea,kaliningrad and sakhalin islands,they upgraded tu22 maritime strike bombers and inducted su34 strike bombers.
The russians recognize they are a sea denial force.The problem with IN admirals is they have gotten so used to the idea of dominating the IOR they are embedded in a sea dominance mentality that they practice against pakistan,their egos wont let them switch to a rational sea denial strategy vis a vis china,because sea dominance would never work against PLAN irrespective of whether you build another 65k tonne carrier or not.Government must not give in to the megalomania of the IN admirals and force them to accept the rational practical solution,not the prestige solution.